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Adaptive Governance - Global Networks and Global Challenges
Victor GalazStockholm Resilience CentreStockholm University
Networks (very large-scale)
Polycentric Order
International Institutions
Three forces that are reshaping the
Planet
The AnthopocenePlanetary Boundaries
“The Great Acceleration
Political shifts towards networked forms of governance
Mass-Self Communication
Information Revolution
1995: 40 million Internet users2011: 2.3 billion Internet users
1991: 16 million access to cellphone2008: 5.9 billion (87%)
What are the long term institutional and organizational implications of information
technology in the Anthropocene?
Mass Self-CommunicationDecreasing costs for information
Bubonic Plage, Surat (India)1994
In 1994 the spread of bubonic plaguein the city of Surat deaths of 57people, significant economiclosses, and social and politicaleffects. Over 300,000 peopledeserted the city (in two days!)
Late warnings, information overload and collapse
Development of web crawler GPHIN at Health Canada (1995)
ProMED - moderated e-mail list hosted by the International Society
for Infectious Diseases (1994).
“atypical pneumonia”, “unknown respiratory disease”
PNEUMONIA - CHINA (GUANGDONG): RFI**********************************Date: 10 Feb 2003From: Stephen O. Cunnion, MD, PhD, MPH<[email protected]>
This morning I received this e-mail and then searched yourarchivesand found nothing that pertained to it. Does anyone knowanythingabout this problem?
"Have you heard of an epidemic in Guangzhou? Anacquaintance of minefrom a teacher's chat room lives there and reports that thehospitals there have been closed and people are dying."
--Stephen O. Cunnion, MD, PhD, MPHInternational Consultants in Health, IncMember ASTM&H, ISTM<[email protected]>
“All of the sudden, we had a very powerful system that brought in much more information from more countries, and we where
able to go to countries confidentially and validate what was going on, and if they needed help, we provided help. And we provided help by bringing together many different institutions
from around the world that started to work with us.”
David Heymann, WHO
Breaking down of the information pyramid
Supernetworks
Collective IntelligenceTwo new phenomena
Supernetworks“Networks of Networks” - interconnected at
multiple levels; information technology plays a key role; complex system
Global supply chain networks, financial networks, knowledge networks and power grids
(Nagurney et al 2006).
There is a bigger "networks of networks" […]. In GOARN you have CDC, MSF and Red Cross. Which you also have in the different coordination groups for meningitis vaccine and yellow fever vaccine. Or in global polio eradication. These are enormous, but some are very small and, you would
bring in the global influenza with laboratories and national influenza centers. But that is the “network of networks” which has no substance, no defined substance. It's there, the function, but in a highly chaotic, very undefined way.
Patrick Drury, GOARN/WHO.
Southern Cone EID Surveillance Network
Asian Rotavirus Surveillance Network
European Centre for Disease Control,
EpiNorth
US-CDC
Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN)over 120 actors and others!
Galaz et al 2012 in Ecological Economics
Steering?
David wanted to take the GPHIN business and what WHO was doing, and develop a "network of networks". These would
be highly unformalized, highly unstructured, as chaotic as possible, because if we allowed it to coagulate or set down at any part of the WHO, the apparatus of the organization, […] would start to drag it down […]. All of these rules would just
slow down what was trying to be done.
Patrick Drury, GOARN/WHO
We have the international level, the WHO and the FAO. And at the national level we try to bring together agriculture and
human health ministries. […] group involves academics, and a few key people in the agencies, such as Stephan from the FAO, Pierre […] from the WHO, OIE […]. You have focal points in
the agencies, and you have focal points in NASA, and from 4 or 5 different universities.
Jan Slingerbergh EMPRES/FAO
That network is a little bit loosely defined, but flexible and effective, you know. When there is the need, everybody jumps
in to action. I think the way it works is highly commendable perhaps, because it’s not fringed or wrapped up in an
organizational structure. People just make it work because they know each other. And it’s not a larger group to get lost in, the flexibility is there. I believe this is key to the success.
Wouldn’t it be great if we actually could map these networks?
Hyperlink analysis of major players in EID early warning and response
NOTE: Illustration!
UN Agencies Cluster
US Gov Cluster
WHOFAO
ECDC
Red Cross
ECDC International Red Cross
What makes them work?
Q: What if you are facing some uncertainty of the disease? How do you coordinate your networks?A: Each time we have a suspecting case of fever, or something very wrong, the first thing we do, is that we contact WHO. Immediately. […]. So there is immediate collaboration, so we call them and "send you the sample with the first plane”, or the first car or whatever. So, “please go on with your laboratory and tell us what's going on". That is systematic.
Q: So that is not formalized?No, no, but it's not personal. WHO knows that we will always call them if we are suspecting things or something is very bizarre.
Dan Sermand, MSF
Formal: a) within organization rules, budget, responsibility
b) between organizations - partnerships, memorandum of understanding, etc
Informal: social networks, linked through institutional role + personal history
Coordination - Is that it?
Collective Intelligence - large, distributed problem solving through
information and communication technology. Distributed activity is
emergent and collective, rather than orchestrated.
Adhoc Virtual Network for SARS Etiology
13 laboratories in 9 countriesDaily telephone conferences
“The good thing is that it isn’t flu. Then well, what is
it?”
ProMED
1994-2006 #25 054 postings (total)
#373 postings included ”Request for information”
How Decreasing Costs of Information Processing and Mass Self-
Communication Builds Resilience
Supernetworks! Collective intelligence!They build on the combination btw ICT and social
networks and polycentric order.
Are these general phenomena?
Information processing Multi-network dynamics
Harnessing diversity
Legitimacy
Galaz et al. 2012 (in review)
ocean acidification
climate changemarine biodiversity
Strategic selection of 20 interviews with key policy actors at the international level
Galaz et al. 2011, Ecological Economics
Existing international partnership
Theoretical approach: ‘polycentric
governance’, network theory
Robust international institutions will have a very difficult time to evolve
problem not well understoodlikely to interplay with existing institutions
difficult to “fit”extreme actor heterogeneity
(Young 2008, “institutional diagnostics” )
Networks?
Robust international institutions will have a very difficult time to evolve
Very complex institutional setting
FAOICES
World BankIUCN
UNEP
WorldFish Centre
UNESCOGlobal Forum on Oceans
Coasts and Islands
UN Ocean
PacFaGPA-MarineICRI
INCOP
Galaz et al. 2011, Ecological Economics
FAO
UNDP
OECD
World Bank
Evolving network, with patterns of information sharing, coordination, and conflict resolution. Affected by changes in complex institutional setting (climate, biodiversity, marine
regimes)
Main conclusions
Evolving coordination patterns, emphasis on information sharing + lobbying -> tension
Highly centralized to 3 core international organizations
Increasing degree of formalization
Negative institutional interactions
Galaz et al. 2011, Ecological Economics
Global networks International institutions
Earth system “tipping points”
Incentives Interactions
Enforcement
Adaptability
Galaz et al. 2012 (in review)
Common features?
Information processing Multi-network dynamics
Harnessing diversity
Legitimacy
Galaz et al. 2012 (in review)
Twitter Updates “Good Morning!”by Jer Thorp (via Vimeo)
Information dynamics and adaptive governance
Monitoring
Coordination
Learning
Innovation dynamics
Scale of networks
“iPod Liberalism” by Evgeny Morozov
- the assumption that information tech innovation always promotes
freedom and democracy
“iPod Environmentalism” by Victor Galaz
- the assumption that tech innovation always promotes
sustainability
Hackers and CO2 emission trading (2010)250,000 carbon credits - 4 million USD
“The `climate consensus’ may hold the establishment — the universities, the
media, big business, government — but it is losing the jungles of the web. After all, getting research grants, doing pieces to camera and advising boards takes time.”
Christopher Pearson, The Australian
Special Interest 3.0
