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7/29/2019 Vicki Arroyo BRWIV
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Decisionmaking Under Uncertainty
Vicki Arroyo
Executive Director
Georgetown Climate Center
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One Reaction to Uncertainty: Airport Security
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I know certainty freaks you guys out,
but its 100 [percent]
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Views of climate change impacts
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Key Uncertainties in the Climate Models
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Uncertain Futures
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8/31Associated PressAssociated Press
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Urban Heat Tool Kit
Audience Local Planners
Heat
adaptation
methods
Green roofs
Cool roofs Cool pavements
Urban forestry
Analysis
of options
By adaptation method
By authority
By type of land use By tradeoffs
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Sea-Level Rise Uncertainties
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High6.6 feet
Low**0.7 feet
Adapting to Uncertain
Sea-Level Rise
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State Adaptation Plans
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Adaptation Planning
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Old Twin Span
New Twin Span21 feet higher
Elevating Interstate 10
Michael DeMocker/Times-Picayune
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Audience State and Local Planners
Coastaladaptation
methods
Accommodate Protect
Retreat
Analysis
of options
By adaptation method
By authority
By type of land use By tradeoffs
Sea-Level Rise Tool Kit
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Sea level rise policy approaches
Adapted from image from Integration and Application Network, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (ian.umces.edu/symbols)
Protect Zone
Accommodate ZoneConservation Zone
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Uncertainties in Projecting Sea-Level Rise
Most states using IPCC models that
failed to account for ice sheet melt
resulting in conservative estimates
Shorelines are constantly in flux due to
natural processes Models classify flooding by depth only
Difficulty Downscaling
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Skewed uncertainty = Elevated Risk
Probabi
lity
Increasing Impacts Severity
Idealized view ofscientific uncertainty
Uncertainty basedon climate sensitivity
risky fat tail
Risk & Uncertainty
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How Scientists Deal With Uncertainty
Quantitative
Qualitative
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Strategies for building
resilience in the face ofuncertainty Adaptive management
Resilient design Precautionary regulations Robust decision-making Insurance Redundancy
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How Do Engineers Deal with Uncertainty?
Base FloodElevation
Wave runupstorm surge
Engineeringmargin of safety
Uncertainty(e.g. rapid ice sheet melt)
LEVEEDESIGN(historic
conditions)
ADAPTIVEDESIGN
Adapted from Dessai & VanDer Slutjs 2007
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How Do Courts Deal with Uncertainty?
Substantive Due Process: Land Use Regulations constitutional if they have a
rational basis supported by policy rationale
Agency Decision-making
Agency decisions are valid unless arbitraryor capricious
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Climate science is not too uncertain to
guide agency decisions Imperfect models are entitled todeference
Precautionary regulation is permitted
How Courts Deal with
Scientific Uncertainty
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Beyond a reasonable doubt
Clearing and convincing evidence
Substantial and credible
evidence
Preponderance of theevidence
Probable cause
Rational basis
Arbitrary and
capricious
Level of certaintyneeded to regulatefor climate impacts
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Designing for Sea Level Rise
Sherman Creek Waterfront Esplanade Proposal
WXY Architecture and Urban Design
City of New York
MoMA Rising CurrentsNew Urban Grounddlandstudio and ARO City of New York
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An example of adaptive design:
Treasure Island, San Francisco
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Dedicated openspace
Setbacks
Elevated structures
Clusteredhigh-densitydevelopment
Plans for flood protection +funding
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Adaptation Reduces Vulnerability and Increases Resilience
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Landing Page Features
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For more information:www.georgetownclimate.orgwww.adaptationclearinghouse.org
http://www.georgetownclimate.org/http://www.adaptationclearinghouse.org/http://www.adaptationclearinghouse.org/http://www.georgetownclimate.org/