Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS), Phailin

over the Bay of Bengal during 08-14 October

2013 : A Demonstration of Early Warning

Capability of India Meteorological Department

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

MAUSAM BHAVAN, LODI ROAD , NEW DELHI-110003

mohapatraimd@gmail.com

M Mohapatra

Out of 80 forming over the

globe, five form over north

Indian Ocean

Out of five cyclones, 1-2

become very severe

cyclone(>63 kt)

Ratio of TCs between Bay of

Bengal and Arabian Sea –

4:1

Max human death due to

cyclones in the globe

Tropical Cyclones over over North Indian Ocean

Maximum storm surge due to unique bathymetry, topography, coastal

geometry, especially Bay of Bengal. Maximum recorded surge-13 metre

• RSMC, New Delhi provides Daily tropical weather Outlook and 3 hourly

Tropical cyclone advisories, including storm surge guidance to

WMO/ESCAP Panel countries (Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman,

Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand)

VSCS-Phailin (8-14 Oct 2013)

• MSW:115kt

• Larger storm

• Eye wall Replacement Cycle

• Rapid intensification

(70 kt in 24 hrs)

• Large scale damage

• Minimal Human death (21 only)

• Possible due to effective warning

and response mechanism

• 1 Million people evacuated.

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) PHAILIN over

the Bay of Bengal (08-14 October 2013) • Most intense cyclone after 1999 Super

Cyclone.

• Super Cyclone-1999

• MSW:140kt

• Smaller Storm

• No Eye wall Replacement

Cycle

• VSCS-Phailin-2013

• MSW:115kt

• Larger storm

• Eye wall Replacement Cycle

• Rapid intensification

(70 kt in 24 hrs)

• Super Cyclone-1999

• No objective forecast

• Lead period was less (24 hrs)

• Accuracy was moderate

• Poor Warning

communication and

triggering mechanism

• Poor response and

evacuation (44, 000 people)

• VSCS-Phailin (2013)

• Objective track, intensity and

landfall forecast-5 day lead

• Accurate impact based

warning (Rain, storm surge)

• Effective communication and

triggering mechanism

• Effective response and

evacuation (1 Million people)

Loss of Human Lives and cost of evacuation

over the years have reduced SN PARAMETERS SUPER

CYCLONE, 1999

VSCS PHAILIN,

2013

1. Loss of human life 9887 21

2. Ex-gratia paid by Govt. @

Rs 600,000

Rs 5930 Million Rs 12.6 Million

3. Area of evacuation

according to warning

500 km (approx) 180 km

4. Cost of evacuation

(100 thousand Rupees per

km assumed)

500 Million

Rupees

180 Million Rupees

Calculation is based on assumption that similar amounts would have

been spent for evacuation and payment of ex-gratia in 1999 as in 2013

• Though there are many attributes, improvement in early warning

system is a dominant factor for reduction in loss of Human Lives

Cyclone Phailin is not an isolated case of success Due to several initiatives taken by IMD, Ministry of Earth sciences

(MoES), Govt of India, the cyclone forecast has improved in recent

years significantly

Forecast Performance

during 2013

•VSC HUDHUD), Oct.,

2014

ADVANCES IN CYCLONE FORECASTING IS MAINLY DUE TO

: • Improvement in observational network (Ocean, land and atmosphere)

and quality of data (DWR, Buoys, AWS, High wind speed recorders,

GPS-Sondes, Satellite images and derived products

Vision document

Benchmarking

Standard Operation Procedure for

• Daily Watch and Methodology

• Check list,

• impact based forecast product generation

• Dissemination mechanism and triggering

R&D-FDP on landfalling cyclone

• High power computing system and

Improved Numerical modelling capabilities

( GFS, WRF, HWRF)

• Improved tools and techniques of

forecasting

ADVANCES IN CYCLONE FORECASTING IS MAINLY DUE TO

: • Fast communication for data Exchange and warning

dissemination

• Capacity building through Training, and National and

international collaboration

• Close liaison and Triggering mechanism for disaster managers

• Timely and frequent update of warning product (text and

graphics) through improved PWS

FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 1999): SCIENTIFIC FAILURES.

The scientific systems whose responsibility it was to predict the contours

of the cyclone did a far from perfect job. to be able to do a better job next

time around, an integrated approach to cyclone studies is needed.

FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 2013): ACING THE STORM.

The India Meteorological Department, with improved models and

observation systems and greater forecast skills, predicts accurately not

only the intensity of cyclone Phailin but also its landfall.

Monitoring and Forecast Process of Tropical Cyclone- Phailin

Action

Runs of different Models,

Consecutive runs from the same model,

Ensemble runs ("choosing the best member")

Numerical forecasts

Model Decision maker

Numerical forecasts

End forecast

Initial conditions (Observations)

Forecaster Model

Model runs

Numerical forecasts

Broad Classification of

Observations

Surface

Upper Air

Space Based

• Pilot Balloon

• RSRW

• Profiler

• Ground Based RADAR

• Aircraft

• Geoststionary Satellites

• Polar Orbiting Satellites

• AWS

• ARG

• SYNOP

• BUOYS

• AVIATION

• SHIPS

Monitoring and

Forecast Process

Genesis Monitoring and forecasting for Phailin

Monitored by satellite imageries along with the scat-winds, buoys, ships

and coastal and island observations

Genesis forecast

On 3 Oct. 2013: Indicated to disaster managers that a low would form

over Andaman Sea on 7 October with potential for further intensification

7 October : Low formed over Andaman Sea, Forecast for intensification

8 October : Depression formed and regular special bulletin commenced.

Forecast for intensification into a very severe cyclone by 10th October.

9th October (morning): Formation of Cyclonic Storm

Genesis Monitoring Genesis forecasting (1609 UTC, 08.10.2013)

ISRO Model

TC-Phailin track forecasting methods

i) Statistical Techniques

Analogue, CLIPER,

i) Synoptic Techniques

iii) NWP Models

• Individual models

(Global and regional)

• IMDGFS (574), NCMRWF

(GFS, UM), ARP (MeteoFrance,

ECMWF, JMA, UKMO, NCEP,

WRF (IMD, IIT, IAF), HWRF

(IMD-NOAA),

• MME (IMD)

• EPS from NCMRWF and

TIGGE-JMA

vi)Operational (Consensus)

forecast

•Single model EPS yet to be fully

utilised

•MME is better than individual models

Track forecast error (km)-Phailin

050

100150200250300350400450500550

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

12 hr forecast error(km)24 hr forecast error (km)36 hr forecast error (km)48 hr forecast error (km)60 hr forecast error (km)72 hr forecast error (km)

Track forecast error (km)-NIO during 2003-13

63 98 91 91 90 77

95

135 112

78

0

50

100

150

12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Track Forecast Error (km)-Phailin 24 hr track forecast errors

have reduce at the rate of

7 km per year. And skill

improved by 5% per year.

Phailin : Forecast Accuracy (Landfall) Lead

Time

(Hrs)

Landfall

Point Error

(km)

Landfall

Time Error

(hrs)

12 3 3 hr delay

24 13 3 hr delay

36 5 3 hr delay

48 11 3 hr delay

60 2 3 hr delay

72 6 01 hr early

84 41 01 hr early

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

12 hr 24 hr 36 hr

48 hr 60 hr 72 hr

Annual Landfall Forecast errors (km) over NIO

24 hr landfall error: 75km

48 hr landfall error : 100 km

72 hr landfall error : 125 km during 2009-13

Intensity monitoring and prediction Monitoring by Satellite, DWR, ship, buoy, Dvorak technique over deep

sea

Prediction by Empirical techniques and NWP Models

• IMDGFS (574), NCMRWF (574), ARP (MeteoFrance, ECMWF, JMA,

UKMO, NCEP-GFS, WRF (IMD, IIT, IAF), HWRF (IMD-NOAA)

Dynamical Statistical Model (SCIP)

Dynamical Statistical Model for RI and decay after landfall

Intensity Forecast by SCIP model

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Forecast Lead Time (hour)

Inte

ns

ity

(k

t)

Observed

FC1(08/00z)

FC2(09/00z)

FC3(09/12z)

FC4(10/00z)

FC5(10/12z)

FC6(11/00z)

FC7(11/12z)

FC8(12/00z)

VSCS(65 KT)

Intensity Forecast by HWRF model

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96

Forecast Lead Time (hour)

Inte

nsit

y (

kt)

Observed

FC1(09/00z)

FC2(09/12z)

FC3(10/00z)

FC4(10/12z)

FC5(11/00z)

FC6(11/12z)

FC7(12/00z)

VSCS(65KT)

Rapid Intensification(RI) MSW increased by 70 kt in 24 hrs from 10 Oct morning.

0.0 0.0 2.65.2

9.4

22.0

32.0

72.7

100.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

0(17) 1(58) 2(117) 3(115) 4(96) 5(41) 6(25) 7(11) 8(3)

Total number of RI thresholds satisfied

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f R

I (%

) Dependent

Sample mean

Climatological Probability of RI=9.5%

Forecast based on

Probability of

RI predicted

Chances of

occurrence

Occurrence

00 UTC/10.10.2013

72.7 %

HIGH

YES

12 UTC/10.10.2013

72.7 %

HIGH

YES

RI-Index could predict occurrence of Rapid Intensification phase of

cyclone PHAILIN, but with limited lead period.

Absolute Intensity Forecast error (knots)-Phailin

9.1

14.9 17.4 18.7 17.7

11.1

19.7

10.5

1.8 5.4

05

1015202530

12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Intensity Forecast errorl(knot) for…

Forecast Wind

0

10

20

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Absolute error(kt) of maximum sustained surface wind forecast

12 hr 24 hr 36 hr48 hr 60 hr 72 hr

Intensity forecast skill has improved by about 5% per year and error

reduced by 1-2% per year in last five years

Heavy rainfall and structure of TC (Phailin)

• Size-largest in recent years

• Affected eastern coast of India

with gale winds over 500 km

• Heavy rainfall extended upto

Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh

Raingauge and satellite based

merged rainfall analysis Accumulated rainfall (8-14 Oct, 2013

with track of Phailin showing rainfall

belt shift during landfall

Date/

Time

Forecast Rainfall (Example) Observed Rainfall at 0300 UTC of

date

10

Oct.

/03

UTC

Odisha : heavy (7-12 cm) to very

heavy (13-24 cm) falls at a few

places with isolated extremely

heavy falls (25 cm or more) :

coastal Odishadistricts from 12th

October morning. Would continue

and extend to interior Odisha

QPF in ranges are issued for river

catchments

Odisha

12 & 14 October: Isolated heavy

over coastal Odisha

13 October: Heavy to very heavy

rainfall with isolated extremely

heavy rainfall.

QPF was under-estimated/over-

estimated in some catchments.

Heavy

rainfall

Prediction

Prediction by NWP

models+ synoptic

and climatological

guidance

Date/Time Forecast Gale Wind (Example) Actual Wind

10Oct13/

03UTC

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph

gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and

off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast from

11th morning. It would increase with gale wind

speed reaching 175-185 kmph at time of landfall.

Later revised to 210-220 kmph on same day

115 Knots

Gale wind Monitoring by Satellite, DWR, ship, buoy,

Prediction by Empirical techniques

NWP Models

• Deterministic

• Ensemble

Dynamical Statistical Model (SCIP)

Dynamical Statistical Model for RI

Statistical Model for decay after landfall

Date/

Time

Forecast Surge Actual

Surge

10.

Oct.13/

03

UTC

Storm surge of

1.5-2.0 m.

Revised to 2.5-3

m on 11th.

2-2.5 m

PEAK SURGE ELEVATIONS AT THE BOUNDARY (IC:2013100912)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Vis

ha

kh

ap

atn

am

Srik

ak

ulu

m

La

nd

fall

Go

pa

lpu

r

Pu

ri

Pa

rad

ip

Dh

am

ara

Ch

an

dip

ur

§

2.0

2.73.0

2.3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

60 70 80 90

Time (hrs)

Se

a s

urf

ac

e e

lev

ati

on

(m

)

Left_LF

Landfall

Gopalpur

Puri

Storm Surge

prediction method -

Parametric-IIT-Delhi and

Direct-IIT-Bhubaneswar

Coastal inundation-

INCIOS ADCIRC Model

Probabilistic model:R&D

Storm Surge prediction

BULLETINS AND WARNINGS ISSUED for specific users in

collaboration with various agencies in four stages

Four stage cyclone

warning

Sea area bulletin

Coastal weather bulletin

Bulletins for Indian navy

Fisheries warnings

Port warnings

Aviation warning

Bulletins-AIR/TV/ press

Hourly Satellite based

CWDS bulletins (English,

Hindi, Regional language

Warnings for registered

users.

Pre-cyclone watch – At least 72 hr

in advance indicating formation of a

Depression with potential to

intensify into a Cyclone and

coastal belt likely to be affected.

Cyclone Alert- Issued 48 hrs in

advance

Cyclone warning – Issued at least

24 hrs in advance

Post-Landfall Outlook- Issued about

12 hrs before landfall for interior

districts besides the coastal areas.

De-Warning- issued when cyclone

weakens or moves away

Telephone, Tele-fax

VHF/HFRT/Police Wireless

Satellite based cyclone warning dissemination System

Mobile Phones (SMS) through IMD severe weather network,

Agromet Network, Tsunami Warning network

Internet (e-mail), ftp

Websites, Dedicated website for cyclone

(rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in)

Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM, FM, Comminity Radio,

Private TV) : Govt and private broadcasters

Daily Press conference.

3 hourly updates from 8 Oct and Non-stop media coverage (

Electronic, print) with Hourly update on 12th October

Bulletins and Warnings Dissemination by IMD in

collaboration with various agencies

Bulletins issued during VSCS PHAILIN by IMD

Bulletin No. of Bulletins

Press Release daily

No. of Press Conferences

Round the clock response to press and public

5

Personal Briefings to senior national and state

Govt. Officials

At least once a Day.

On 12th frequently

Participation in National and state level Crisis

Managemeng Committee Meeting

Daily 9-12 Oct. 2013

National Bulletin 45

RSMC Bulletin 27

TCAC Bulletin (Text & Graphics) 19

Bulletin to Hong Kong website for Aviation DRR 18

TC vitals to NWP modelers 10

Quadrant Wind radii 7

SMS Once a Day

Area where improvement is needed

Gap in scientific understanding required for better forecasting

that includes:

Detailed structure and dynamics of cyclones over the NIO

unlike Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Interaction between cyclone, Ocean, the surrounding

environment

Gap in observational and modeling systems for forecasting with

high spatial resolution

Heavy rainfall forecasting and QPF for smaller river catchments

are more challenging and need improvement

Storm Surge and Coastal inundation observation, modeling and

forecasting

The Atmospheric Technology Vision is

for

an end-to-end, integrated and inter-

operable

network of Indian atmospheric

observations,

data communications, management

and delivery

systems, supported by a

comprehensive user

oriented software utilities to enable

Nowcasting

to climate modeling.

To achieve maximal indigenous

capacity in

building sensors and observational

networks

on different platforms Like ground,

upper

atmosphere, aircraft and spacecraft.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

• IMD and MoES are continuously strengthening and upgrading their

Early Waring System aiming at DRR based on state of art technology

• However, international collaboration is needed for development of

tools and Technology in various aspects, especially for

• Observational systems (aircraft reconnaissance)

• Satellite based tools, especially modification of Dvorak technique for

monsoonal systems, sheared systems, rapidly weakening system etc

• Nowcasting (rapid intensification &weakening) and climate modeling

of cyclones (extended and seasonal prediction)

• Improvement in decision support system (DSS)and NWP modeling for

location specific heavy rain, QPF, gale wind, storm surge, high waves

and coastal inundation.

• Capacity building through training, and collaborative R&D

Thank you