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Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profiler. Validation studies of project CN-MET. Christophe Hug, Pirmin Kaufmann , Guy de Morsier WG5 Meeting 7 th of September 2009. Project CN-MET I – The Context. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profiler
Christophe Hug, Pirmin Kaufmann, Guy de Morsier
WG5 Meeting 7th of September 2009
Validation studies of project CN-MET
2 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
Project CN-MET I – The Context
• MeteoSwiss project conducted for the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI
• Replacement (and improvement) of the current emergency preparedness tool for the Swiss nuclear power plants (NPP)• Current tool is based on empirical profiles and tower
measurements (Windbank) to provide input for dispersion model
• The tower will be progressively dismantled starting in September 2009
• COSMO-2 data replace the measurements as input for dispersion models of ENSI
3 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
CN-MET II – The networkSt. Chrischona
Stockeren
Uetliberg
Grenchen
Payerne
Schaffhausen
Leibstadt
Beznau
Gösgen
Mühleberg
Bantiger
Kleindöttingen
Mühleberg
4 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
CN-MET III – The Requirements
• Accuracy requirement set by the specification document for the CN-MET project (HSK-ENSI 2005)
• Wind direction (dd) for wind speed > 2 m s-1
95% quantile within ± 20°• Wind speed from 2 m s-1 to 10 m s-1
95% quantile of the absolute error within ± 1 m s-
1
• Wind speed larger than 10 m s-1
95% quantile of the relative error within ± 10%
5 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
Model and real topography
6 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
7 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
Wind profiler in Kleindöttingen (KDT)• H = 205 m high-mode• H = 72 m low-mode• Measurement:
• 675 – 4773 m MSLhigh-mode
• 440 – 1452 m MSLlow-mode
• Height of site: 321 m MSL
Manufacturer specifications:wind direction ± 10°wind speed ± 1 m/s
8 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
Wind profiler Sports Club Zeus (ZES)
9 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
Verification method
• Interpolation of• wind profiler data onto model levels (KDT) or• model data onto wind profiler levels (ZES)
• Verification of wind speed and wind direction• 30 min time step (KDT)• 60 min time step (ZES)
• Separate verification for profiler high-mode and low-mode• Focus on the forecast lead times +00 to +06 h
10 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
Normal distribution ?Both wind speed and wind direction distribution fail the Lilliefors test.
Normal probability plots make it obvious for wind direction.For wind direction and speed there are too many outliers.
11 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
KDT – High-mode wind direction
High-modeWind direction ff ≥ 2 m/s
High-modeWind direction ff ≥ 2 m/s
12 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
ZES – High-mode wind direction
High-modeWind direction ff >= 2 m/s
High-modeWind direction ff >= 2 m/s
13 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
KDT – Low-mode wind direction
Low-modeWind direction ff ≥ 2 m/s
Low-modeWind direction ff ≥ 2 m/s
14 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
ZES – Low-mode wind direction
Low-modeWind direction ff >= 2 m/s
Low-modeWind direction ff >= 2 m/s
15 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
KDT – High-mode wind speed
High-modeWind speed ff <10 m/s
High-modeWind speed ff <10 m/s
16 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
ZES – High-mode wind speed
High-modeWind speed ff < 10 m/s
High-modeWind speed ff < 10 m/s
17 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
KDT – Low-mode wind speed
Low-modeWind speed ff ≤ 10 m/s
Low-modeWind speed ff ≤ 10 m/s
18 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
ZES – Low-mode wind speed
Low-modeWind speed ff < 10 m/s
Low-modeWind speed ff < 10 m/s
19 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
KDT – High-mode realtive wind speed
High-modeWind speed ff ≥ 10 m/s
High-modeWind speed ff ≥ 10 m/s
20 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind [email protected]
Histograms and scatterplots – all levels
Wind direction
High-mode
ff ≥ 2 m/s
Wind direction
High-mode
ff ≥ 2 m/s
0’
Wind direction
High-mode
ff ≥ 2 m/s
Wind direction
High-mode
ff ≥ 2 m/s
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Outliers during the campaign High-Mode (1)
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Case 14 – 15 Aug. 2008 (outlier)
Foehn in green
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Verification in KDT with WP (dd)
BEZ
LEI
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Verification in KDT with WP (ff)
BEZLEI
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Conclusions
• The verification scores of COSMO-2 with wind profiler depends on the location of the profiler.
• In average COSMO-2 forecasts are able to reproduce the situation in KDT and ZES
• The tails of the error distribution is larger than for a normal distribution, due to outliers that are always part of a numerical forecast.
• Comparison with tower measurements shows similar or mostly better results than with wind profiler.
Thank you.
