Case Debates

Oceans – General Impacts

Oceans are at risk of collapse

Industrial development and climate change are converging for an ocean wildlife ArmageddonHannah Osborne, Staff Writer, January 15, 2015, “Oceans facing wildlife Armageddon: 'We are falling off a mass extinction cliff - but we're not there yet',” International Business Times, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/oceans-facing-wildlife-armageddon-we-are-falling-off-mass-extinction-cliff-1483605, Accessed 1-16-2015The world's oceans are facing a "wildlife Armageddon" if the Industrial Revolution of the sea continues on its current trajectory. That is according to a report by scientists at the University of California, Santa Barbara, which found – to much surprise – the oceans are far healthier than thought. But this will not last. The authors warn ever increasing industrial use of the oceans coupled with climate change will mean marine wildlife is driven to extinction in the same way as land animals. Published in the journal Science, the authors compared the Industrial Revolution on land with current patterns of how humans use the world's oceans. They found that in the last 500 years, 500 land animals have gone extinct, whereas just 15 ocean species faced the same fate (that we know of). Lead author Douglas McCauley said: "All signs indicate that we may be initiating a marine industrial revolution. We are setting ourselves up in the oceans to replay the process of wildlife Armageddon that we engineered on land."

Ocean collapse is anthropogenic and magnified by technology advancesCarl Zimmer, Staff Writer, January 16, 2015, “Ocean life faces mass extinction, broad study says,” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/102343516, Accessed 1-16-2015There are clear signs already that humans are harming the oceans to a remarkable degree, the scientists found. Some ocean species are certainly overharvested, but even greater damage results from large-scale habitat loss, which is likely to accelerate as technology advances the human footprint, the scientists reported. Coral reefs, for example, have declined by 40 percent worldwide, partly as a result of climate-change-driven warming. Some fish are migrating to cooler waters already. Black sea bass, once most common off the coast of Virginia, have moved up to New Jersey. Less fortunate species may not be able to find new ranges. At the same time, carbon emissions are altering the chemistry of seawater, making it more acidic. "If you cranked up the aquarium heater and dumped some acid in the water, your fish would not be very happy," Dr. Pinsky said. "In effect, that's what we're doing to the oceans."

Ocean Collapse – It’s not too late!

We are the brink of the next major extinction with ocean collapse but it’s not too lateCarl Zimmer, Staff Writer, January 16, 2015, “Ocean life faces mass extinction, broad study says,” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/102343516, Accessed 1-16-2015A team of scientists, in a groundbreaking analysis of data from hundreds of sources, has concluded that humans are on the verge of causing unprecedented damage to the oceans and the animals living in them. "We may be sitting on a precipice of a major extinction event," said Douglas J. McCauley, an ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and an author of the new research, which was published on Thursday in the journal Science. But there is still time to avert catastrophe, Dr. McCauley and his colleagues also found. Compared with the continents, the oceans are mostly intact, still wild enough to bounce back to ecological health. "We're lucky in many ways," said Malin L. Pinsky, a marine biologist at Rutgers University and another author of the new report. "The impacts are accelerating, but they're not so bad we can't reverse them."

Only immediate measures to reduce human footprint in the oceans can avert marine extinctions Deirdre Fulton, staff writer, January 16, 2015, “Humans Have Brought World's Oceans to Brink of 'Major Extinction Event',” Common Dreams, http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/01/16/humans-have-brought-worlds-oceans-brink-major-extinction-event, Accessed 1-27-2015Marine wildlife at all levels of the food chain has been badly damaged by human activity, says a new report that urges immediate and "meaningful rehabilitation" if we are to avert mass extinction in the world's oceans. "We may be sitting on a precipice of a major extinction event," Douglas J. McCauley, an ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara and an author of the study, told the New York Times. The report, published Thursday in the journal Science, finds that habitat loss, mismanagement of oceanic resources, climate change, and the overall "footprint of human ocean use" have resulted in a phenomenon known as "defaunation"—a decline in animal species diversity and abundance.

We can still reverse damage to oceans. Waiting guarantees extinctionDeirdre Fulton, staff writer, January 16, 2015, “Humans Have Brought World's Oceans to Brink of 'Major Extinction Event',” Common Dreams, http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/01/16/humans-have-brought-worlds-oceans-brink-major-extinction-event, Accessed 1-27-2015The report authors say the effects of human activity in the ocean are still reversible: "Proactive intervention can avert a marine defaunation disaster of the magnitude observed on land." Oceana's Keledjian echoed that appeal. "This study reminds us that it is critical to do everything we can to protect vulnerable species and the ocean ecosystems on which they depend," she said. "While much remains unknown about the state of the oceans, we cannot wait to act until we know with 100 percent certainty that extinctions and devastation are upon us, because that will already be far too late."

Ocean Collapse – Must reduce fossil fuels

Ocean management is essential to avoid mass extinction. Reducing fossil fuels is keyJeremy Hance, Staff Writer, January 15, 2015, “Empty seas? Scientists warn of an industrialized ocean,” Mongabay.com, http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0115-hance-industrialized-oceans.html, Accessed 1-27-2015But looming in the background of all of this—and rising to the foreground—are climate change and ocean acidification. Researchers have warned repeatedly that these twin carbon impacts could lead to mass extinction across marine environments, if we fail to reign in fossil fuels quickly. In other words, according to McCauley and his colleagues, the oceans have not yet suffered the same human impacts as terrestrial ecosystems, but they could soon without better care and management. Even slowing climate change and acidification a little allows marine species adaptationJeremy Hance, Staff Writer, January 15, 2015, “Empty seas? Scientists warn of an industrialized ocean,” Mongabay.com, http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0115-hance-industrialized-oceans.html, Accessed 1-27-2015Scientists especially fear for coral reefs as the world's oceans both heat up and acidify. Research has shown also that a number of shell-dependent invertebrates could be hugely impacted by ocean acidification, which is happening at a faster rate than any time in the last 300 million years. Ocean acidification may also screw with the behaviors of many marine species, including fish. "Yet, marine animals are already exhibiting some impressive potential to adapt to this change," noted McCauley. "If we can slow rates of ocean warming and acidification, even a bit, we buy these animals more time to adapt and can do a lot to help protect the intrinsic resiliency of the oceans."

A2: Ocean collapse/crisis

Ocean collapse claims are based on doom-and-gloom distortions that undermine ocean restoration and protectionCarlos M. Duarte, University of Western Australia's Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology in Crawley, and with the Department of Global Change Research at the Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados in Esporles, Spain, December 2014, “Reconsidering Ocean Calamities,” BioScience, http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/12/24/biosci.biu198.full, Accessed 1-15-2015Such accounts of the deterioration of the oceans stemming from the scientific community run the risk of conveying the hopeless notion to managers and the public that we are confronted with an insurmountable environmental crisis of gigantic proportions. Although emphasizing problems may be intended to propel remedial action, it may achieve the contrary, because an overly negative message may lead society into pessimism or the belief that the ocean is beyond restoration. Indeed, recent media reports on problems in the ocean do not leave much room for optimism (table 1). However, an analysis of some of the calamities reported in doom and gloom media accounts (e.g., table 1) shows some—at times, severe—disconnect with actual observations. For instance, there is no evidence that ocean acidification has killed jellyfish predators, nor that jellyfish are taking over the ocean, and predictions that the killer algae, Caulerpa taxifolia, was going to devastate the Mediterranean ecosystem have not been realized, despite claims to the contrary from the media (table 1). It may be, therefore, that some of the calamities composing the syndrome of collapse of coastal ecosystems may not be as severe as is portrayed in some accounts.

Ocean crisis claims are media distortions not based on science and influence researchersNature, Editorial Staff, January 14, 2015, “Deep mysteries,” http://www.nature.com/news/deep-mysteries-1.16704, Accessed 1-14-2015News about the oceans tends to be bad, and feeds the dark imagery — such as Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, which is believed to have gone missing over the Indian Ocean with huge loss of life, or the enormous car-carrying ship that ran aground a fortnight ago off the UK coast. Some scientists are now questioning whether this drip feed of negativity about the oceans is reflected in the attitudes of researchers. Carlos Duarte of the University of Western Australia in Crawley and his colleagues claim in a provocative paper that ocean science focuses too much on the narrative of man-made disaster. Their study argues that “doom and gloom media accounts” of the terrible state of the oceans are frequently not based on strong evidence.

We should be skeptical of their ocean calamity claims. They are self-perpetuating narratives based on weak evidenceCarlos M. Duarte, University of Western Australia's Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology in Crawley, and with the Department of Global Change Research at the Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados in Esporles, Spain, December 2014, “Reconsidering Ocean Calamities,” BioScience, http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/12/24/biosci.biu198.full, Accessed 1-15-2015The discussion above provides examples of how assessing the calamities in terms of the three criteria that they must meet may reveal that some of the calamities typically included in lists of the problems of the ocean may not be substantiated, and, whereas some, such as the depletion of fish stocks, are strongly supported by evidence, the evidence for some others may be equivocal or weak, which

suggests that a formal auditing of ocean calamities is necessary. However, once hypothetical problems have risen to the status of calamities in the literature, they seem to become self-perpetuating. Indeed, the marine research community seems much better endowed with the capacity to add new calamities to the list than they are to remove them following critical scrutiny. As an example, the newest calamity extends the problem of the expansion of coastal hypoxia to a concept of global ocean deoxygenation (Keeling et al. 2010). The possible explanation that the list of calamities only experiences growth because all calamities are real is inconsistent with the examples provided above that some of them may not withstand close scrutiny. The alternative explanation is that there are flaws in the processes in place to sanction scientific evidence, such as organized skepticism, that need to be addressed to help weed out robust from weak cases for ocean calamities.

A2: Ocean collapse/crisis

We should embrace skepticism toward ocean collapse claims, which are based on equivocal or unsupported data. This fosters hope that motivates more effective policymaking for ocean stewardshipCarlos M. Duarte, University of Western Australia's Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology in Crawley, and with the Department of Global Change Research at the Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados in Esporles, Spain, December 2014, “Reconsidering Ocean Calamities,” BioScience, http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/12/24/biosci.biu198.full, Accessed 1-15-2015For some of the ocean calamities, we may be at a very early stage of discovery. However, even for such cases, data reporting should follow robust practices and should avoid common pitfalls, such as a failure to correct for observation effort when reporting the increase in a perceived problem over time (e.g., figure 1). Concerted efforts to develop robust theory, adopting best practices in reporting data, and combatting confirmatory bias and theory tenacity in the literature will aid in understanding the processes that give rise to what are perceived as ocean calamities. Most important, we should remain skeptical and, in exerting organized skepticism, will ensure a depiction of global ocean problems devoid of unsupported claims and statements, which will help organize management and policy options targeting the most pressing problems to limit the deterioration and to provide effective stewardship of the oceans. We conclude that a robust audit of ocean calamities, probing into each of them much deeper than the few examples provided here, is imperative to weeding out the equivocal or unsupported calamities, which will confer hope to society that the oceans may not be entirely in a state of near collapse and which will provide confidence that the efforts by managers and policymakers targeting the most pressing issues may still deliver a healthier ocean for the future.

Their ocean impacts are based on groupthink, not observationDaniel Cressey, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Ocean 'calamities' oversold, say researchers,” Nature, http://www.nature.com/news/ocean-calamities-oversold-say-researchers-1.16714, Accessed 1-15-2015The state of the world's seas is often painted as verging on catastrophe. But although some challenges are very real, others have been vastly overstated, researchers claim in a review paper. The team writes that scientists, journals and the media have fallen into a mode of groupthink that can damage the credibility of the ocean sciences. The controversial study exposes fault lines in the marine-science community. Carlos Duarte, a marine biologist at the University of Western Australia in Perth, and his colleagues say that gloomy media reports about ocean issues such as invasive species and coral die-offs are not always based on actual observations. It is not just journalists who are to blame, they maintain: the marine research community “may not have remained sufficiently sceptical” on the topic.

Claims of ocean collapse are motivated by “white hat” bias and distortionCarlos M. Duarte, University of Western Australia's Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology in Crawley, and with the Department of Global Change Research at the Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados in Esporles, Spain, December 2014, “Reconsidering Ocean Calamities,” BioScience, http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/12/24/biosci.biu198.full, Accessed 1-15-2015The rise of ocean calamities has generated a worldview in which a host of ecological syndromes resulting from human-driven pressures is leading to the collapse of the ocean. The addition of new problems, such as new invasive species, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, or the perils from plastic pollution, to the litany validates and strengthens this worldview, forming a more compelling case for

action to reduce human pressures. Although reducing human pressures on the marine environment is a positive outcome, this may provide a motivation to inadvertently—or, in worst cases, deliberately—fall into the white hat bias, defined as “bias leading to distortion of information in the service of what may be perceived to be righteous ends”. Clearly, no righteous end justifies the perpetuation of scientific bias.

A2: Ocean collapse/crisis

The ocean catastrophe narrative demobilizes action to address real problemsDaniel Cressey, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Ocean 'calamities' oversold, say researchers,” Nature, http://www.nature.com/news/ocean-calamities-oversold-say-researchers-1.16714, Accessed 1-15-2015Duarte's team reviews a number of news reports and scientific papers. It contrasts these with other papers that would seem to undermine the catastrophe narrative. Among the "excessive media headlines" cited are the CNN's ' Overfished and under-protected: Oceans on the brink of catastrophic collapse ' . Duarte also told Nature that its own news story 'Coastal havoc boosts jellies' fell into the 'doom and gloom' trap. Another example is the decline of species that build calciferous shells, attributed to ocean acidification caused by carbon dioxide dissolving in the seas. In 2013, The Seattle Times said that this issue "is helping push the seas toward a great unraveling that threatens to scramble marine life on a scale almost too big to fathom". But the authors of the BioScience paper say that there are significant uncertainties in this. Many experiments are based on “worst-case scenarios”, they say, and claims that calciferous organisms are already declining may relate not to carbon emissions, but to other oceanic processes. And although it is sometimes claimed that jellyfish blooms are increasing around the world, Duarte's paper says there were no global attempts to quantify the increase until 2012, so such claims are extrapolated from a small number of cases. Overselling such claims is dangerous, says the group, because the public may become inured to them and give up trying to save an ocean that it believes is already beyond redemption.

There are tons of alternate causes for ocean collapseJeremy Hance, Staff Writer, January 15, 2015, “Empty seas? Scientists warn of an industrialized ocean,” Mongabay.com, http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0115-hance-industrialized-oceans.html, Accessed 1-27-2015With the rise of industrialized fishing, super trawlers, deep sea exploitation, pollution, and aquaculture, the human impact on the oceans is escalating rapidly and may be on the same course as what happened on land beginning in the Nineteenth Century: an industrial revolution of the oceans with the associated ecological impacts. "There are factory farms in the sea, and cattle-ranch style feed lots for tuna. Shrimp farms are eating up mangroves with the same appetite with which terrestrial farming consumed native prairies and forest," added co-author Steve Palumbi with Stanford University. "Stakes for seafloor mining claims are being pursued with gold rush-like fervor. Three hundred-ton ocean mining machines and 750 foot fishing boats are now rolling off the assembly line to do this work."

Citation error and publication bias undermine the validity of ocean calamity claimsCarlos M. Duarte, University of Western Australia's Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology in Crawley, and with the Department of Global Change Research at the Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados in Esporles, Spain, December 2014, “Reconsidering Ocean Calamities,” BioScience, http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/12/24/biosci.biu198.full, Accessed 1-15-2015Perceived calamities may also be perpetuated through miscitations and citation biases. The accuracy of citation practices is of fundamental importance for knowledge to be passed on free of distortion. However, citation practices may be prone to considerable errors of accuracy and bias. Miscitations and citation errors have also been identified as a vehicle for the propagation of error, misconceptions, and unsupported beliefs. Citation errors include invalid or unsupported citations; ambiguous citations that take a particular interpretation of evidence presented elsewhere; and empty citations, which refers to citations of secondary sources that did not, themselves, provide evidence in support of the assertion

made. In particular, Todd and colleagues (2010) reported high rates of miscitation in the marine biology literature, with only 75.8% of citations clearly supporting the assertions made. This assessment refers to miscitations of past research, but citation biases can also derive from selective citations. Selective citations are described by authors’ tendencies to report the evidence that corresponds with their preconceived ideas while discarding contradictory results. Unfortunately, we are not aware of any study in which selective citation has been systematically examined in marine ecology or biology. Publication bias may also play a role, because papers in which negative results are reported, in the context of failing to provide support for the existence of accepted calamities, may be more difficult to publish than positive results, which confirm the existence of the calamities. Although publication bias has been assessed regularly in the medical sciences, the awareness of publication bias in ecological studies is relatively recent, generally in association with its possible impacts on the outcome of meta-analyses.

Acidification

A2: Acidification impacts

Single causes like acidification won’t lead to ocean calamitiesCarlos M. Duarte, University of Western Australia's Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology in Crawley, and with the Department of Global Change Research at the Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados in Esporles, Spain, December 2014, “Reconsidering Ocean Calamities,” BioScience, http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/12/24/biosci.biu198.full, Accessed 1-15-2015The ocean calamities included in narratives of the deterioration of the oceans include disruptive changes to ocean ecosystems attributable to human pressures that have profound impacts and that are widespread, which are exemplified, for instance, by a tendency for a global decline of vegetated coastal habitats or coral reefs, growing mortality due to hypoxia, or the decline in calcifiers due to ocean acidification. Ocean calamities may have natural causes, such as the widespread impacts on marine life of the current development of a submarine volcano in the Canary Islands, to cite an extreme example. Some calamities, such as jellyfish blooms, red tides, or marine heat waves, may also be triggered by both natural or human causes. However, human pressures may erode the resistance of marine ecosystems to natural pressures and thereby amplify the impacts of those pressures. For instance, overfishing affects the resilience of coral reefs to other stresses. Moreover, human pressures are inherently patchy, and no one calamity, even climate change, acts homogeneously at global scales. However, the calamities addressed here are those attributable to human pressures and sufficiently widespread that they are relevant beyond those possibly affecting single locations or regions, which are those fueling growing concern on the state of the oceans.

Citizen Oceanography

AFF. – Current ocean science lacks data

Current ocean data collection techniques are incomplete and cost-prohibitiveFederico M. Lauro, School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, et al., September 9, 2014, “The Common Oceanographer: Crowdsourcing the Collection of Oceanographic Data,” PLoS Biol, 12(9): e1001947, http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001947, Accessed 1-14-2015Oceanographic data are incomplete because it is financially and logistically impractical to sample everywhere. Scientists typically sample over time, floating with the currents and observing their temporal evolution (the Langrangian approach), or they sample across space to cover a gradient of conditions—such as temperature or nutrients (the Eulerian approach). These observational paradigms have various strengths and weaknesses, but their fundamental weakness is cost. A modern ocean research vessel typically costs more than US$30,000 per day to operate—excluding the full cost of scientists, engineers, and the cost of the research itself. Even an aggressive expansion of oceanographic research budgets would not do much to improve the precision of our probabilistic models, let alone to quickly and more accurately locate missing objects in the huge, moving, three-dimensional seascape. Emerging autonomous technologies such as underwater gliders and in situ biological samplers (e.g., environmental sample processors) help fill gaps but are cost prohibitive to scale up. Similarly, drifters (e.g., the highly successful Argo floats program) have proven very useful for better defining currents, but unless retrieved after their operational lifetime, they become floating trash, adding to a growing problem.

Oceanography should shift away from advancing observer capabilities to maximizing observersChuck Bednar, Staff Writer, September 11, 2014, “Expedition Pioneers Issue A Call For Citizen Oceanographers,” Red Orbit, http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1113231704/sailors-wanted-as-citizen-oceanographers-091114/, Accessed 1-14-2015“The ocean is too vast for any vessel to sample very much of it, no matter its capabilities,” said report co-author Joseph Grzymski, an associate research professor at Nevada’s Desert Research Institute and lead expedition scientist on the Indigo V voyage. “Maximizing the number of observers, rather than the advanced capabilities of observers, requires a very different approach to the choice of vessel, personnel, instrumentation and protocol.” The research team said they were able to inventory surface water bacterioplankton populations in all but the most extreme conditions, while also taking basic measurements of ocean physics and chemistry. They were eventually able to recover DNA and RNA from samples that had been preserved using a non-toxic salt solution. “The world’s oceans are largely unexplored and we have a shortage of oceanographic data because it is financially and logistically impractical for scientists to sample such vast areas,” Dr. Lauro said Wednesday in an interview with the AFP news agency.

AFF. – Lack of data leads to bad policies

Because we lack essential ocean data, scientists use probabilistic modelling that results in failed policiesFederico M. Lauro, School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, et al., September 9, 2014, “The Common Oceanographer: Crowdsourcing the Collection of Oceanographic Data,” PLoS Biol, 12(9): e1001947, http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001947, Accessed 1-14-2015Notwithstanding satellite constellations, autonomous vehicles, and more than 300 research vessels worldwide, we lack fundamental data relating to our oceans. These missing data hamper our ability to make basic predictions about ocean weather, narrow the trajectories of floating objects, or estimate the impact of ocean acidification and other physical, biological, and chemical characteristics of the world's oceans. To cope with this problem, scientists make probabilistic inferences by synthesizing models with incomplete data. Probabilistic modeling works well for certain questions of interest to the scientific community, but it is difficult to extract unambiguous policy recommendations from this approach. The models can answer important questions about trends and tendencies among large numbers of events but often cannot offer much insight into specific events. For example, probabilistic models can tell us with some precision the extent to which storm activity will be intensified by global climate change but cannot yet attribute the severity of a particular storm to climate change. Probabilistic modeling can provide important insights into the global traffic patterns of floating debris but is not of much help to search-and-rescue personnel struggling to learn the likely trajectory of a particular piece of debris left by a wreck.

AFF. – Solvency: Improves data

Citizen science approaches to oceanography are essential to improving data collectionJohn Gunn, Chair, National Marine Science Committee, et al., 2014, “National Marine Science Plan Infrastructure Theme White Paper, Research Vessels, Experimental Facilities, Observing Systems and e-Research,” http://frdc.com.au/environment/NMSC-WHITE/ Documents/Submissions/Infrastructure%20theme%20summary%20white%20paper.pdf , Accessed 1-14-2015Cost effectiveness is clearly a significant issue with marine research infrastructure and alternative approaches to data collection need to be considered. The potential to make greater use of commercial vessels as Ships of Opportunity, and to strengthen relationships between marine science and the government agencies operating and chartering vessels for other purposes are two examples. Citizen science is a growing area which is expected to become much more significant over the next decade as individual citizens are equipped with ever more powerful sensing and communication devices. The Reef Life Survey (RLS) project and Range Extension Database & Mapping Project (Redmap) are current examples. Other concepts are being developed e.g. citizen oceanography, equipping private vessels with ocean observing equipment including for sampling and archiving for microbial genomics. From a research infrastructure perspective, it will be important to have a focus on the quality of data produced by citizen science projects, which must be good enough to enable peer reviewed publications.

Citizen oceanography overcomes current barriers to increase public awareness of science by capitalizing on current interest to boost the predictive power of modelsFederico M. Lauro, School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, et al., September 9, 2014, “The Common Oceanographer: Crowdsourcing the Collection of Oceanographic Data,” PLoS Biol, 12(9): e1001947, http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001947, Accessed 1-14-2015Citizen oceanography, specifically science conducted aboard sailing yachts, would overcome many of these hurdles and empower civilian scientists with the pride of data contribution to science, providing an incredible opportunity for outreach as well as improving science education and increasing public awareness. Participation of a small fraction of the thousands of vessels that continuously cruise remote parts of the oceans could comprise a global oceanographic monitoring network that would boost the predictive power of scientific models. This would be a natural group of citizen scientists inherently motivated by their love of sailing and empirical knowledge of the beauty, power, and vastness of the world's oceans. Given the complexities and importance of the coastal ocean, an obvious question is, why not include coastal recreational sailors in this call to action? The coastal waters present problems related to permitting, and deregulated sampling would infringe on the exclusive economic rights of nations' territorial waters. However, other initiatives such as Ocean Sampling Day can be extended to cover multiple days throughout the year. In partnership with coastal schools and universities, this is a huge pool of citizen scientists and citizen data collectors.

Citizen scientists could provide massive ocean data to break the current bottlekneckChuck Bednar, Staff Writer, September 11, 2014, “Expedition Pioneers Issue A Call For Citizen Oceanographers,” Red Orbit, http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1113231704/sailors-wanted-as-citizen-oceanographers-091114/, Accessed 1-14-2015“The world’s oceans are largely unexplored and we have a shortage of oceanographic data because it is financially and logistically impractical for scientists to sample such vast areas,” Dr. Lauro said Wednesday in an interview with the AFP news agency. “By using what’s known as ‘citizen science ‘, Indigo V

Expeditions set out to prove that the concept of crowdsourcing oceanography can solve the great data collection bottleneck,” he added. “With the right equipment, citizen scientists could gather large quantities of information as they sail around the world.” In order to help volunteers with their data collection efforts, citizen scientists will be provided with a rugged box containing all the instruments required for them to collect biological samples and to measure physical parameters like temperature, conductivity, depth and weather conditions, the study authors said.

AFF. – Solvency: Improves data

Citizen data collection is essential to fill gaps in modelsFederico M. Lauro, School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, et al., September 9, 2014, “The Common Oceanographer: Crowdsourcing the Collection of Oceanographic Data,” PLoS Biol, 12(9): e1001947, http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001947, Accessed 1-14-2015There are many actions that can be taken to improve the precision of our models, but the most obvious is to increase spatial and temporal density of our observations. However, the cost of oceanographic research vessels makes this impractical. The inevitable conclusion is that observations must be obtained by some other means. We propose a worldwide effort to empower sailors and retrofit sailboats to increase coverage of sample and data collection along common routes around the world.

Citizen oceanographers can provide essential scientific dataChuck Bednar, Staff Writer, September 11, 2014, “Expedition Pioneers Issue A Call For Citizen Oceanographers,” Red Orbit, http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1113231704/sailors-wanted-as-citizen-oceanographers-091114/, Accessed 1-14-2015Despite the existence of technology such as GPS navigation and satellite imagery, much of the Earth’s oceans remain unexplored – a problem that has led to the authors of a new PLOS Biology study to call for volunteers to help fill in the gaps. Dr. Federico Lauro, a microbiologist at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) in Australia, and his colleague explained in their paper that they are looking for sailors who are willing to become “citizen oceanographers” and help the scientific community learn more about some of the world’s choppiest bodies of water. These recreational sailors could help provide essential new scientific knowledge about the oceans by sampling and testing remote waters from their yachts, the researchers explained. Dr. Lauro, who is also a national sailing champion, helped pioneer this type of data collection when he led an international scientific expedition across the Indian Ocean as a member of the Indigo V Expeditions team.

AFF. – Solvency: Feasible

Citizen oceanography is an inexpensive approach to essential data collection Katharine Gammon, Staff Writer, September 10, 2014, “Citizen Scientists Can Help Save the Oceans While Sailing the Seas,” Takepart.com, http://news.yahoo.com/citizen-scientists-help-save-oceans-while-sailing-seas-150144054.html, Accessed 1-14-2015Grzymski said that most oceanographic research happens in the top 330 feet of the ocean, which is the most biologically dynamic part of the sea and also has the most contact with the atmosphere. Scientific research vessels carry complex machines to take deep samples and analyze them in real time, but such ships can cost about $30,000 a day to operate. Still, much can be learned from simple measurements, including sampling the bacteria that live near the ocean’s surface, taking temperature measurements, and even monitoring debris. The researchers are working to ruggedize and automate an ocean-sampling device so citizen-sailor-scientists can collect bacterioplankton samples. They estimate the device will cost $1,500 or less. The scientists hope government funding will pay for shipping and analyzing the samples.

Citizen science is a low cost alternative for ocean data collectionFederico M. Lauro, School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, et al., September 9, 2014, “The Common Oceanographer: Crowdsourcing the Collection of Oceanographic Data,” PLoS Biol, 12(9): e1001947, http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001947, Accessed 1-14-2015With thoughtfully designed and well-tested equipment and protocols, citizen scientists can gather vast quantities of oceanic data or samples for analysis. Three technologies have provided the technical means for networked data collection: the miniaturization of sample collection devices, the progressive reduction in the cost of sequencing, and the computing and easy data sharing of cloud-based analysis.

Citizens are already motivated and essential to provide data and overcome funding barriersMolly Michelson, California Academia of Sciences, September 9, 2014, “Citizen Oceanography,” Science News (C.A.S.), http://www.calacademy.org/explore-science/citizen-oceanography, Accessed 1-14-2015, *Ellipses in originalThe paper, out today in PLoS Biology, begins, “We live on a vast, unexplored planet that is largely ocean,” and goes on to explain the cost of exploring and understanding the seas that make up our planet. Scientists estimate that a single research vessel could cover approximately 3% of the ocean over the course of a year, at a cost of $15 million, including boat, crew, and scientists. With reduced funding, and our rapidly changing planet, we simply don’t have enough data to grasp ocean processes or to make estimates about the ocean’s future health. But citizen scientists could help fill that gap, assert the international researchers behind the new study. According to the study: At least 5,000 sailing yachts travel the oceans every year using several popular routes…This would be a natural group of citizen scientists inherently motivated by their love of sailing and empirical knowledge of the beauty, power, and vastness of the world’s oceans.

AFF. – Solvency: Feasible

Expanding citizen-based oceanography is a viable and inexpensive approach to data collectionFederico M. Lauro, School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, et al., September 9, 2014, “The Common Oceanographer: Crowdsourcing the Collection of Oceanographic Data,” PLoS Biol, 12(9): e1001947, http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001947, Accessed 1-14-2015Can meaningful data be collected with the kind of narrowly focused, low-cost instrumentation that is easily mass produced and deployable? If so, what vessels will carry it, and what personnel will operate it? Many aspects of modern oceanography, such as locating an underwater object, require sophisticated equipment and trained experts. However, some of the most important types of observations require only that one be in the right place at the right time with simple instrumentation or sampling equipment. Important data can be gathered by anyone who can follow basic instructions. This is the premise of “citizen science”. Rather than dispatching scientists into the environment to collect data, scientists may instead train people who already interact with the environment to apply the scientific method to phenomena they already observe. With or without an invitation, citizen scientists exist. There is an urgent need to make a place for them in the scientific community.

AFF. – Impacts: General laundry list

Citizen oceanography is a cheap approach to augment climate models, weather forecasts, and lost planesKatharine Gammon, Staff Writer, September 10, 2014, “Citizen Scientists Can Help Save the Oceans While Sailing the Seas,” Takepart.com, http://news.yahoo.com/citizen-scientists-help-save-oceans-while-sailing-seas-150144054.html, Accessed 1-14-2015The ocean is vast—so huge that scientists struggle to collect adequate amounts of data on its health, even with the aid of satellites, autonomous robots , and networked buoys. Now scientists are proposing a simple solution to the data-gathering challenges on the seven seas: ask sailors for help. That would mean attaching cheap sampling instruments to sailboats, yachts, or cargo vessels. The data collected would help scientists craft more accurate climate change computer models, make more precise weather forecasts, or even find planes lost at sea. “Our idea is to take the cheap instrumentation that’s already available and put them on sailboats that are already going out into the ocean,” said Joseph Grzymski, an associate research professor of computational biology and microbiology at Nevada's Desert Research Institute and coauthor of a new paper published in the journal PLOS Biology.

AFF. – Impacts: Data Sampling Key

Ocean data samples are essential to planetary lifeMolly Michelson, California Academia of Sciences, September 9, 2014, “Citizen Oceanography,” Science News (C.A.S.), http://www.calacademy.org/explore-science/citizen-oceanography, Accessed 1-14-2015“Oceans serve as the primary respiratory and nutrient cycling machine for the entire planet,” says Joe Gryzmski, co-author on of a new study about citizen oceanography. “If the oceans are in peril, mankind is in peril. With world population on the rise, now more than ever, understanding global ocean microbiome health is of urgent priority.”

AFF. – Impacts: Climate Change

Multiple factors make expanding current methods is not feasible and compounds climate changeFederico M. Lauro, School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, et al., September 9, 2014, “The Common Oceanographer: Crowdsourcing the Collection of Oceanographic Data,” PLoS Biol, 12(9): e1001947, http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001947, Accessed 1-14-2015Oceanography using large ships has a significant carbon and economic footprint, but spatially extensive and temporally intensive data are needed. More specifically, in marine microbiology, data collection has become the bottleneck, since it is currently impossible to quantify the totality of oceanic microbial communities and their environmental drivers by remote sensing or individual research cruises. Expansive budgetary cuts to environmental sciences around the globe and the concurrent need to renew an aging fleet of ocean vessels underscore the urgency.

Increasing citizen science uniquely improves public understanding. Multiple programs prove citizen science can significantly improve understanding of climate changeFederico M. Lauro, School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, The University of New South Wales, et al., September 9, 2014, “The Common Oceanographer: Crowdsourcing the Collection of Oceanographic Data,” PLoS Biol, 12(9): e1001947, http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001947, Accessed 1-14-2015Despite this long tradition, the involvement of amateurs in oceanographic discoveries declined in the 20th century, perhaps contributing to the growing misunderstanding of scientific jargon by the public when it pertains to ocean and atmospheric circulation. This has led to the current political shape-shifting of scientific results (e.g., the climate change debate). In the last few years, mostly due to technological breakthroughs, we have witnessed revitalization in the participation of civilians in data collection: Alan Irwin described the social aspects of this revolution in 1995 and coined the term “citizen science.” The United States National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program (NWS-COOP) is a great example of a successful citizen science initiative. The program was established in 1890 and utilizes a network of more than 11,000 volunteers to provide observational data of basic weather parameters. Similarly, the USA National Phenology Network is a group of scientists and trained citizen scientists who collect observations about plant and animal phenology. This multidecadal program helps scientists, for example, better understand climate change.

AFF. – Impacts: Acidification

Sailors are eager to help! They can give key insight to combat ocean acidificationKatharine Gammon, Staff Writer, September 10, 2014, “Citizen Scientists Can Help Save the Oceans While Sailing the Seas,” Takepart.com, http://news.yahoo.com/citizen-scientists-help-save-oceans-while-sailing-seas-150144054.html, Accessed 1-14-2015Grzymski imagines a fleet of sensor-enabled boats making commonly sailed routes—like the so-called coconut milk run from California to Tahiti—to help scientists understand microbes, which make up 90 percent of the ocean’s biomass. “The typical time scale of research is based on funding, so it’s difficult to go and sample over a month [long] period to understand the dynamics of the ebb and flow of these organisms as they grow and die off,” said Grzymski. And having sailors regularly collect samples could give scientists more insight into the impact of acidification as the oceans absorb ever-growing amounts of carbon dioxide. Some sailors are already eager to help scientists, as Grzymski discovered when he sailed with a colleague from Cape Town, South Africa, to Phuket, Thailand, as part of a pilot study of citizen oceanography.

Desalination

AFF – Water shortages coming now / desal key

Water scarcity is inevitable. Only desalination can meet new needsDavid Talbot, Staff Writer, December 16, 2014, “Desalination out of Desperation,” Technology Review, http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/533446/desalination-out-of-desperation/, Accessed 1/29/2015Already, some 700 million people worldwide suffer from water scarcity, but that number is expected to swell to 1.8 billion in just 10 years. Some countries, like Israel, already rely heavily on desalination; more will follow suit. In many places, “we are already at the limit of renewable water resources, and yet we continue to grow,” says John Lienhard, a mechanical engineer and director of the Center for Clean Water and Clean Energy at MIT. “On top of that we have global warming, with hotter and drier conditions in many areas, which will potentially further reduce the amount of renewable water available.” While conservation and recycling will help, you can’t recycle what you don’t have. “As coastal cities grow,” he says, “the value of seawater desalination is going to increase rapidly, and it’s likely we will see widespread adoption.”

Fossil fuel mining causes water shortages and pollutionBarbara G. Ellis, Ph.D., former journalism professor at Oregon State University, December 17, 2014, “Solar Desalination: Surviving Water’s Coming Armageddon,” Dissident Voice, http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/12/solar-desalination-surviving-waters-coming-armageddon/, Accessed 1/29/2015Other human activities also are significantly depleting huge reserves of remaining water either because of greed or environmental disregard. First for “high crimes” are multinational coal companies in Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. Their “overburden” from mountaintop removal and effluent from coal washing has choked and poisoned valley riverine systems since the 1970s. Next, are multinational corporations fracking or mining for oil and gas under land leased from the ignorant, the equally greedy, or seized from holdouts by eminent domain. Each wellhead uses from 10,000,000 to 25,000,000 gallons of water. All are loaded with 500-750 chemicals—29 toxic to humans. Discharge is either deposited underground or in unlined open-air pits . Most of California’s 400 pits and/or underground storage areas are near waterways.

There is a massive shortage of drinkable water globallyBarbara G. Ellis, Ph.D., former journalism professor at Oregon State University, December 17, 2014, “Solar Desalination: Surviving Water’s Coming Armageddon,” Dissident Voice, http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/12/solar-desalination-surviving-waters-coming-armageddon/, Accessed 1/29/2015Earth’s remaining supply won’t fill the void because 97.5% is salty, 1% is brackish groundwater. Of that 2.5% left, two-thirds currently are frozen, a third is potable , but 70% of that irrigates global food . The U.N.’s recent report declared carbon intake is acidifying oceans. Some oceans have become oxygen-less “ dead zones .” Some huge inland lakes (Erie) have grown so much toxic algae that last August tapwater of 500,000 Ohio residents wereimpacted. In short, the planet is rapidly nearing Samuel Coleridge’s lifeboat poem of 1798: “water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink.”

AFF – Reverse Osmosis good

Reverse osmosis is an effective method for creating clean waterCrystal Lombardo, Staff Writer, December 22, 2014, “Desalination Plants Pros and Cons,” Vision Launch, http://www.visionlaunch.com/desalination-plants-pros-and-cons/, Accessed 1/29/2015The method of desalinating water is proven and effective. The reverse osmosis method of removing salt from ocean water has been proven an effective way to create fresh sources of drinking water that can deliver the needed health benefits that people require. When properly designed, these plants can then create water that is high quality and drinkable.

Reverse osmosis plants are hugely expensiveDavid Talbot, Staff Writer, December 16, 2014, “Desalination out of Desperation,” Technology Review, http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/533446/desalination-out-of-desperation/, Accessed 1/29/2015The process is called reverse osmosis (RO), and it’s the mainstay of large-scale desalination facilities around the world. As water is forced through the membrane, the polymer allows the water molecules to pass while blocking the salts and other inorganic impurities. Global desalination output has tripled since 2000: 16,000 plants are up and running around the world, and the pace of construction is expected to increase while the technology continues to improve. Carlsbad, for example, has been outfitted with state-of-the art commercial membranes and advanced pressure-recovery systems. But the plants remain costly to build and operate.

AFF – Solves water shortages / technology

Desalination is a proven technology that can meet growing water needsVerne Kopytoff, Senior Editor, January 12, 2015, “Parched by drought, cities look to tap the ocean,” Fortune, http://fortune.com/2015/01/12/drought-desalination-ocean/, Accessed 1/29/2015“Desalination isn’t dependent on rainfall or snowpack,” says Peter MacLaggan, a senior vice president with Poseidon Resources, the company that is developing the plant in Carlsbad, Calif. “Traditional sources have been cheap and plentiful, and that’s not necessarily the case anymore.” Desalinization is an old technology used widely in the Middle East that is getting new attention in the United States because of innovation and lower costs. With growing populations and increasingly scarce water, more than 15 California coastal cities are considering the ocean as an alternative to fickle Mother Nature.

AFF – Solar desal solves water shortages / extinction

Only solar desalination can prevent the coming water Armageddon from causing human extinctionBarbara G. Ellis, Ph.D., former journalism professor at Oregon State University, December 17, 2014, “Solar Desalination: Surviving Water’s Coming Armageddon,” Dissident Voice, http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/12/solar-desalination-surviving-waters-coming-armageddon/, Accessed 1/29/2015Alleviating water shortages will be the major issue for human survival and within this decade for many regions of the U.S. and the world as a water Armageddon approaches. Luckily, solar desalination right now is the only simple, cheap, and available solution to provide drinking water for most of the world’s population now. One energy report, just predicted renewables like solar soon will exceed $182,000,000,000 in global revenues and include solar desalination units: “In the developing world…rooftop and community solar has arisen as a cheap and effective alternative to waiting around for their governments to connect them to the electrical grid.” Assuredly, solar desalination systems cannot save most of a thirsty world in the next decades. But at the speed awareness is spreading—especially for have-nots—and with governmental clampdowns on freshwater exploitation and household conservation practices, at least a few hundred billion will not face a water Armageddon.

AFF – Solar Desal solves water shortages / agriculture

Solar desalination can provide water for agriculture to feed 9 billion people by 2050Leon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 5, 2014, “Can Solar Thermal Desalination Make Sustainable Agriculture Possible?,” CleanTechnica, http://cleantechnica.com/2014/12/05/can-solar-thermal-desalination-make-sustainable-agriculture-possible/, Accessed 1/29/2015The jury is still out on solar thermal, which is certainly efficient but has its critics because of its costs, both financial and ecological. The International Energy Association (IEA) is still bullish about its future, and projects such as the Solana Generating Station in Arizona show potential. Large projects such as Masdar’s Shams 1 and California’s Ivanpah have scored plenty of attention, but the rapidly decreasing price of solar panels has made PV more attractive for large projects. But solar thermal technology could have promise for agriculture. At a time when many are pondering how we are going to feed nine billion people by 2050, new projects underway are leveraging solar thermal desalination technology to cleanse water and grow crops in water-stressed regions.

AFF – Solar Desal solves water shortages / environment / electricity

Solar desalination is a proven technology that net helps the environment and provides massive electricityBarbara G. Ellis, Ph.D., former journalism professor at Oregon State University, December 17, 2014, “Solar Desalination: Surviving Water’s Coming Armageddon,” Dissident Voice, http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/12/solar-desalination-surviving-waters-coming-armageddon/, Accessed 1/29/2015Solar desalination proved itself in the mid-1960s on four Greek islands, one producing eight to 33 gallons of potable water per day. It then took off. By 1985, California had 345 solar plants serving farms and towns. Solar desalination’s simplicity does not require much equipment nor huge installations or overhead, and has none of fossil-fuel’s desalination drawbacks except for brine collection. Energy is free and pumps are driven by wind and/or photovoltaic energy. So overhead is minimal and production sufficient. Solar also does little damage to the environment. It has reclaimed degraded land and cut the need for hookup lines to electricity grids, an advantage in areas where electricity is unavailable. Best, excess energy can be stored for reuse when clouds or nightfall shut out sunlight.

NEG – Desalination plants are ineffective and destructive

Desalination plants cause ocean pollution and are hugely expensiveKathleen Ferris, Staff Writer, December 1, 2014, “Desalination: Is It A Practical Solution For Arizona’s Future Water Supplies?,” Arizona Municipal Water Users Association, https://amwua.wordpress.com/2014/12/01/desalination-is-it-a-practical-solution-for-arizonas-future-water-supplies/, Accessed 1/29/2015Engineers can take salt out of ocean water and create water for drinking and irrigating crops. Desalting water on an industrial level is a great technological achievement. The process, however, remains expensive and messy. The world, pushed by need, has moved ahead with desalination projects while researchers work to create more efficient and Earth-friendly technology. Desalination requires an enormous amount of energy to push streams of water at very high pressure through membranes, which trap salt particles. As fresh water is produced, so is a wastewater stream with highly concentrated salt.

Salty brine from desalination kills wildlifeCrystal Lombardo, Staff Writer, December 22, 2014, “Desalination Plants Pros and Cons,” Vision Launch, http://www.visionlaunch.com/desalination-plants-pros-and-cons/, Accessed 1/29/2015To create fresh water out of salt water, the salts in the water need to be removed. This process creates a brine that is so rich in salt that it can contaminate any environment where it may be placed. It is even strong enough to kill vegetation and wildlife should they come into contact with it. There is usually anti-scaling agents and chlorine removing chemicals in this brine as well.

Empirically, desal plants are not cost-effective and risk destroying ecosystemsVerne Kopytoff, Senior Editor, January 12, 2015, “Parched by drought, cities look to tap the ocean,” Fortune, http://fortune.com/2015/01/12/drought-desalination-ocean/, Accessed 1/29/2015Meanwhile, several Australian cities spent billions of dollars over the past decade for seawater treatment plants. However, many of them were put on idle to save money after the droughts ended. “We end up spending a lot of money and getting very little water,” says Conner Everts, executive director of the Southern California Watershed Alliance, who opposes desalination plants because of their cost and their potential impact on the environment. “Don’t think of the ocean as an endless reservoir, but a fragile ecosystem.”

Costs for desalination plants are too high for most communitiesCrystal Lombardo, Staff Writer, December 22, 2014, “Desalination Plants Pros and Cons,” Vision Launch, http://www.visionlaunch.com/desalination-plants-pros-and-cons/, Accessed 1/29/2015Desalination plants might operate at a reasonable price, but building them isn’t always feasible for a community or a nation. The cost is high enough that it has prevented development of this technology because many just can’t afford the initial price tag and there aren’t enough returns to justify the investment.

NEG – Desalination plants increase CO2

Current desalination methods have a high carbon footprint and solar is years awayLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 5, 2014, “Can Solar Thermal Desalination Make Sustainable Agriculture Possible?,” CleanTechnica, http://cleantechnica.com/2014/12/05/can-solar-thermal-desalination-make-sustainable-agriculture-possible/, Accessed 1/29/2015Nevertheless, as more countries and municipalities consider desalination to meet their ever-growing water needs, alternatives to current desalination technologies are needed. Desalination using conventional fossil fuels leaves its own sizable carbon footprint, and the process is also expensive and leaves municipalities and businesses vulnerable to volatile prices . Solar desalination shows some promise, but is still several years off from becoming truly scalable. But Sundrop Farms’ application for farms could have potential.

Desalination plants use huge amounts of powerBrian Nitz, Staff Writer, December 16, 2014, “Graphene nanotechnology makes desalination 100 times more efficient,” Green Prophet, http://www.greenprophet.com/2014/12/graphene-nanotechnology-makes-desalination-100-times-more-efficient/, Accessed 1/29/2015Desalination typically uses at least 3 kilowatt-hours per cubic meter. To put this into familiar terms, filling a 2 liter bottle with desalinated water consumes the same amount of energy as running a 15-watt compact fluorescent light for 24 minutes. The energy required to purify two liters of freshwater would only run the same light for less than two minutes. This may not seem like a lot of energy, but it adds up. According to information published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the world’s desalination plants consume approximately 360 million kilowatt-hours each day. Because of their gluttonous energy consumption, desalination plants are nearly always collocated with electrical power generating stations.

NEG – Current desalination growth will expand

Current technology development will cause spillover research for new clean water methodsLeon Kaye, Staff Writer, December 5, 2014, “Can Solar Thermal Desalination Make Sustainable Agriculture Possible?,” CleanTechnica, http://cleantechnica.com/2014/12/05/can-solar-thermal-desalination-make-sustainable-agriculture-possible/, Accessed 1/29/2015With 70 to 80 percent of the world’s freshwater devoted to farming, society will have to make some tough choices in the coming decades as we use water faster than it can be replenished. Technologies coming from companies such as Sundrop Farms at the very least will motivate other clean technology entrepreneurs to find new ways to harvest water and grow crops for an ever more crowded world—sustainably.

Marine Debris

AFF - The oceans are literally being trashed

The oceans are increasingly being flooded with trashLaura Parker, Staff Writer, January 9, 2015, “Ocean Trash: 5.25 Trillion Pieces and Counting, but Big Questions Remain,” National Geographic, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/01/150109-oceans-plastic-sea-trash-science-marine-debris/, Accessed 1/29/2015The numbers are staggering: There are 5.25 trillion pieces of plastic debris in the ocean. Of that mass, 269,000 tons float on the surface, while some four billion plastic microfibers per square kilometer litter the deep sea. Scientists call these statistics the "wow factor" of ocean trash. The tallies, published last year in three separate scientific papers, are useful in red-flagging the scope of the problem for the public. But beyond the shock value, just how does adding up those rice-size fragments of plastic help solve the problem?

Absent strong action, we’ll have more tons of trash than fishJo Confino, Staff Writer, January 26, 2015, “We could end up with 'as much plastic in our oceans as fish',” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/jan/26/plastic-oceans-environment-waste-recycling-fish, Accessed 1/29/2015A failure to address the mountains of waste in the developing world will result in as much plastic in our oceans as fish, the head of Ocean Conservancy has warned. Andreas Merkl, CEO of the Washington-based environmental NGO, said the combination in the developing world of a burgeoning middle class and low recycling rates will lead to an exponential rise in the amount of plastic washed out to sea. If governments and the private sector fail to solve this problem, “we end up with an ocean that has an amount of plastic that’s in the same order of magnitude as the amount of fish, in terms of tonnes”, Merkl told Guardian Sustainable Business.

Plastics are increasingly polluting the high seasDavid Miliband, Co-Chair of the Global Ocean Commission, January 20, 2015, “Why we’re not protecting half the planet (and how we can change that),” Global Ocean Commission, http://www.globaloceancommission.org/news/why-were-not-protecting-half-the-planet-and-how-we-can-change-that/, Accessed 1/29/2015The ocean beyond national boundaries is wondrous and teeming with life. But this natural beauty is being destroyed one net, one plastic bottle at a time. All the garbage we dump into the water, all of the stocks we fish to depletion, mining, geo-engineering, the impacts add up to real trouble for the high seas. And right now there is no way to currently establish an area protected from these activities on the high seas (the Southern Ocean is an exception where many countries are working hard to protect special places like the Ross Sea but have come up short because a small minority of countries have objected).

Plastics in the oceans are increasing by 20 tons a year, harming the marine environment and economiesJo Confino, Staff Writer, January 26, 2015, “We could end up with 'as much plastic in our oceans as fish',” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/jan/26/plastic-oceans-environment-waste-recycling-fish, Accessed 1/29/2015There are currently estimated to be around 800m tonnes of fish in the oceans and 100m to 150m tonnes of plastic. This is increasing by around 20m tonnes a year, but that growth is expected to accelerate as

far greater numbers of people are able to afford to buy products that are made with, or packaged in, plastic. Plastic is not just harming the marine environment, but also providing a huge economic cost to fishermen and tourism, Catherine Novelli, US undersecretary of state for economic growth, energy and the environment, said at a private meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week.

AFF – Future generations

We owe it to future generations to clean up our ocean debrisLucy Siegle, Staff Writer, January 25, 2015, “Drowning in plastic,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/ jan/25/drowning-in-plastic-rubbish-in-oceans-ecological-emergency, Accessed 1/29/2015In particular, it will be difficult to explain to future generations how and why humanity decided to use the planet’s oceans as a dustbin for plastic, a material known for its durability. Perhaps we thought it magically evaporated. Trillions of pieces are now swirling around the planet’s great oceanic gyres . Gyres occur when airflows moving from the tropics to the polar regions create a clockwise rotating air mass, which then drives oceanic surface currents in the same direction. It is here, where winds are light, that the plastic debris of our throwaway lives is dramatically visible.

NEG – Statistics flawed

We don’t know enough about plastics to make their impact claimsLaura Parker, Staff Writer, January 9, 2015, “Ocean Trash: 5.25 Trillion Pieces and Counting, but Big Questions Remain,” National Geographic, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/01/150109-oceans-plastic-sea-trash-science-marine-debris/, Accessed 1/29/2015"The first piece is to understand where it is," says Kara Lavender Law, an oceanographer at the Sea Education Association in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. Indeed, until scientists learn more about where ocean trash is, how densely plastic accumulates in different ocean ecosystems, and how it degrades, they can't really calculate the damage it's causing. There are still big, basic questions: As it degrades, do plastic toxins seep into the marine environment? If so, how and in what amounts?

Ocean debris statistics are just guessworkLaura Parker, Staff Writer, January 9, 2015, “Ocean Trash: 5.25 Trillion Pieces and Counting, but Big Questions Remain,” National Geographic, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/01/150109-oceans-plastic-sea-trash-science-marine-debris/, Accessed 1/29/2015Another way of coming up with the numbers is to make crude guesses based on manufacturing statistics. Says Jenna Jambeck, a University of Georgia environmental engineer who is completing a worldwide calculation of garbage collected in coastal countries: "If you have 200 million tons produced every year, researchers will arbitrarily estimate that 10 percent goes into the oceans."

NEG – Contamination is post-brink

Plastics have already contaminated the entire oceanLucy Siegle, Staff Writer, January 25, 2015, “Drowning in plastic,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/ jan/25/drowning-in-plastic-rubbish-in-oceans-ecological-emergency, Accessed 1/29/2015And there we might end, if this was just an eco whodunit. The bad news is that plastic contamination stretches from the seabed to Arctic ice and shorelines as far south as Punta Arenas, Chile. As Thompson puts it: “Everywhere we’ve looked so far for plastic contamination, we’ve found it.” But what is the impact of all this plastic, which can be ingested by almost every species and stored in their tissue? Now that Thompson has begun to work out where the plastic goes, he needs to quantify its impact.

Marine Reserves / MPAs

Marine Reserves boost diversity and resilience

Marine reserves are a critical tool to protect biodiversity and boost resilienceThe Pew Charitable Trusts, January 2015, “Establishing Marine Reserves on the High Seas,” http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/Assets/2015/EstablishingMarineReservesontheHighSeas.pdf, Accessed 1-27-2015Fully protected marine reserves are among the management tools available to help address some of the critical challenges to ocean health. Like national parks on land, these reserves protect ocean areas from extractive and destructive human activities to conserve species, habitats, and ecosystem processes. To date, though, only 1 percent of the world’s ocean has been fully protected. Even less of the high seas is highly protected, in large part because no overarching laws exist to allow countries to establish reserves that will be universally recognized and respected in waters beyond national jurisdictions. Scientists see marine reserves as critical tools for safeguarding biodiversity, habitats, and crucial ecosystem processes. Research shows that reserves boost ecological resilience against environmental stressors occurring across the globe, such as overexploitation of resources, climate change, and ocean acidification.

Marine reserves make the ocean more resilient to climate changeFiorenza Micheli, PhD., Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, et al., July 18, 2012, “Evidence That Marine Reserves Enhance Resilience to Climatic Impacts,” PLOS One, http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0040832, Accessed 1-27-2015Marine ecosystems worldwide are affected by a suite of stressors that combine to degrade whole ecosystems and the many services they provide. Many stressors, including impacts from climate change, cannot be removed at local scales. However, enhanced local resilience - the ability of populations and ecosystems to absorb disturbance while retaining their function and provision of ecosystem services - may help combat the impacts of these major disturbances. Thus, enhancement of resilience through the removal or amelioration of local disturbance may provide the best opportunity for local communities to respond to global climate change.

It’s not too late! Marine reserves boost biodiversity and marine resiliencyThe Pew Charitable Trusts, January 2015, “Establishing Marine Reserves on the High Seas,” http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/Assets/2015/EstablishingMarineReservesontheHighSeas.pdf, Accessed 1-27-2015Negative human influences touch every part of the ocean, but the harm can be reversed. Fully protected marine reserves can help conserve biodiversity and valuable habitats that maintain ecosystem function and counter environmental change. A system of marine reserves on the high seas would protect the unique marine life in these waters, as well as the interconnected coastal and ocean ecosystems beyond.

Despite different versions, MPAs are based on sound science and improve policy understandingClaire Christian, Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, January 20, 2015, “Effective marine protection: what does the science say?,” National Geographic, http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2015/01/20/effective-marine-protection-what-does-the-science-say/, Accessed 1-27-2015While different MPAs might have different purposes or different goals, this research reinforces the value in ensuring that they are all designed based on the same basic principles. To me, setting aside large areas free from extractive activities has always just seemed like common sense. Many people will say

that our ability to manage fisheries has improved dramatically over the past few decades, and it has. That doesn’t mean humans have perfected it, or that we have achieved (or even can achieve) complete mastery of complex marine ecosystems. We learn new things about the ocean and its species all the time. MPAs are our insurance policies against our own lack of knowledge (Donald Rumsfeld might call them unknown unknowns) and against climate and other environmental uncertainties. Science is now giving us the data we need to set up effective insurance policies for the ocean, both to protect our future and to improve our present. As we think about ocean conservation goals for 2015 (and beyond), I hope we can heed those lessons.

Marine Reserves boost diversity and resilience

MPAs bolster marine ecosystem recoveryClaire Christian, Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, January 20, 2015, “Effective marine protection: what does the science say?,” National Geographic, http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2015/01/20/effective-marine-protection-what-does-the-science-say/, Accessed 1-27-2015The pressing need for the creation of marine protected areas (MPAs) (sometimes called as marine reserves) is discussed often on the Ocean Views blog. MPAs and reserves can help ecosystems recover , provide climate refuges and even protect humans . So we know that marine protection has a huge potential to improve environmental outcomes. But the MPAs in existence today aren’t all the same. Some MPAs allow fishing, some don’t. Some are large, some are small. When policymakers and scientists decide to protect a marine area, there is no universal template to follow. However, a groundbreaking study last year by Edgar et al. analyzing the conservation benefits from 87 global MPAs has started to help us figure out what an MPA needs to accomplish its conservation goals.

Studies prove reserves can massively increase species diversity an abundanceThe Pew Charitable Trusts, January 2015, “Establishing Marine Reserves on the High Seas,” http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/Assets/2015/EstablishingMarineReservesontheHighSeas.pdf, Accessed 1-27-2015Peer-reviewed studies have found significantly higher species biomass and abundance within reserves than in similar areas that are unprotected. Highly protected areas that greatly restrict or completely prohibit human activities experience the greatest ecological benefits, with demonstrated increases of 20 to 30 percent in the number of species and size of organisms as well as approximately 450 percent more biomass as compared with unprotected areas.

MPAs and reserves boost biodiversity and ecotourismMaddi Higgins, Staff Writer, January 21, 2015, “A Rainbow of Marine Protected Areas,” Good Nature Travel, http://goodnature.nathab.com/a-rainbow-of-marine-protected-areas/, Accessed 1-27-2015Only 2.3% of the world’s oceans are protected. That’s why WWF works to create Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). An MPA is an area designated to protect marine ecosystems, processes, habitats and species as well as promote positive social impacts . They include marine reserves, no-take zones, marine parks, and sanctuaries around the world. MPAs preserve the marine biodiversity we enjoy in our travels, and ecotourism is an important tool keeping MPAs financially sustainable. Here’s a slideshow exploring the colors and countries of Marines Protected Areas around the world:

Reserves and MPAs are safe havens to protect all life on EarthJudith Garber, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, US Dept. of State, December 3, 2014, “Marine Protected Areas: Safeguarding the Ocean for Future Generations,” DipNote, https://blogs.state.gov/stories/2014/12/03/marine-protected-areas-safeguarding-ocean-future-generations, Accessed 1-27-2015Only three percent of the ocean is part of a marine protected area (MPA) and less than one percent is fully protected in marine reserves. That’s a tiny percentage when you consider how much we depend on the ocean to support life on Earth. The ocean regulates our weather and climate; provides food as well as the majority of the oxygen we breathe; and about three billion people rely on fish and seafood as a key source of protein. MPAs are safe havens for fish, whales, dolphins, corals, and other treasures of

the sea. Many MPAs also serve as living laboratories that are critical to scientific research and discoveries that benefit humankind. MPAs can also boost economic activity by increasing fish stocks’ sustainability and creating new or improved opportunities for tourism.

Marine Reserves boost diversity and resilience

Reserves protect top predators and maintain ocean ecosystem balanceThe Pew Charitable Trusts, January 2015, “Establishing Marine Reserves on the High Seas,” http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/Assets/2015/EstablishingMarineReservesontheHighSeas.pdf, Accessed 1-27-2015Marine reserves hold even greater benefits for top predators, such as sharks and tunas. Studies have shown biomass continuing to increase exponentially in predatory fish populations for up to 18 years after reserves have been established. Recent science highlights the critical role that healthy populations of large predators play in maintaining ecosystem balance and how rebuilding their numbers leads to healthy and more complex food webs. These ecosystems are then far better able to cope with, and recover from, unexpected environmental changes.

MPAs are effective in reversing fish stock deletionGlobal Partnership for Oceans, Staff Writer, 2015, “Marine Protected Areas Vital to Restoring Biodiversity,” Global Partnership for Oceans, http://www.globalpartnershipforoceans.org/marine-protected-areas-vital-restoring-biodiversity, Accessed 1-28-2015Marine protected areas (MPAs) restrict human activities in defined areas and are seen as offering the most comprehensive protection to coastal and shoreline ecosystems. Organizations experienced in establishing MPAs say the evidence demonstrates their effectiveness in enabling depleted fish stocks and ecosystems to recover and replenish. They also stress the importance of involving local communities in the implementation, to make sure populations are not cut off from resources they have historically depended on for their livelihoods. Local involvement can reinforce systems of property rights and improve monitoring and surveillance. Today, less than two percent of the world’s oceans are under some form of protection, and many existing protected areas are not managed effectively. By contrast, 12 percent of the earth’s land mass is under protection – through national parks or reserves.

All the tools to expand MPAs are in place to protect speciesJeremy Hance, Staff Writer, January 15, 2015, “Empty seas? Scientists warn of an industrialized ocean,” Mongabay.com, http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0115-hance-industrialized-oceans.html, Accessed 1-27-2015To better safeguard the ocean, the authors suggest more Marine Protected Area, which to date only cover around 3 percent of marine waters. But they also note that this oft-repeated solution can't be the only approach given how far many ocean species roam and disperse. Instead, other solutions must include improved management, much stricter zoning, and innovative programs. "We need policy to manage these species and their habitats in over 95 percent of the oceans that are not set aside in marine protected areas," McCauley said. "There are some smart policies already in circulation for doing this, for example whole ecosystem management plans [and] incentive based fisheries. More than anything else, it is important to realize that we have to put these policies and tools already in front of us into place immediately and commit to them."

Marine Reserves/MPAs NEG – Consult Fishers CP Solvency

MPAs will fail without consulting fishers. They are key to effective guidelinesAlice Schreiber, Intern at the RJ Dunlap Marine Conservation Program at Miami University, December 30, 2014, “Fishermen Views on Marine Protected Areas,” http://rjd.miami.edu/conservation/fishermen-views-on-marine-protected-areas, Accessed 1-27-2015As fish stocks continue to decline, Marine Protected Areas are becoming increasingly popular methods of conserving marine habitats and preserving species. The success of these areas depends upon the existing legal framework, acceptance by the community, and an effective management system. Being aware of how fishermen socially perceive MPAs is crucial when establishing them and creating management guidelines. MPAs are established areas where fishing pressure is reduced by designating the amount of fishing effort, time available for fishing activity, species that can be caught, gear permitted, or catch limits. At times, Marine Protected Areas may completely restrict fishing or some areas may be designated Marine Reserves which function as no-take zones. The expectation is that the MPA will “maintain or restore marine biodiversity and ecosystem function,” as well as “improve socioeconomic conditions by increasing revenues from fisheries production due to an increase in the size and number of fish migrating out of the MPA”. Without taking into account the stakeholders’ perception of the reserve, enforcing management of Marine Protected Areas would be nearly impossible.

Absent consultation, compliance measures will be compromisedAlice Schreiber, Intern at the RJ Dunlap Marine Conservation Program at Miami University, December 30, 2014, “Fishermen Views on Marine Protected Areas,” http://rjd.miami.edu/conservation/fishermen-views-on-marine-protected-areas, Accessed 1-27-2015A new study by Monalisa Silva and Priscila Lopez, sheds some light on how to determine fishermen’s perceptions of MPAs and what criteria influence the opinions the fishermen have about the MPA. When evaluating perception among fishers, four questions are asked: (1) if a fisherman born in a place subjected to the limitations of an MPA has a more conservationist attitude; (2) if young, part-time, non-selective fishers are more flexible and adaptable to changes in the reserves, (3) if full-time fishermen who were born in a community under the influence of an MPA have greater participation in the establishment of management; and (4) if fishermen born in a community under the influence of an MPA have more positive opinions than immigrant fishermen regarding the protected areas. Asking these questions allows researchers and policy makers to understand which individuals within a community are less likely to comply with the regulations, and as such, which individuals would benefit from more education or incentives regarding the protected areas. Compliance will not be at adequate levels if there is not a proper understanding from the public of why MPAs are needed.

Marine Reserves/MPAs NEG – General solvency answers

Even if reserves are good, it’s impossible to fully protect the high seasDavid Miliband, Co-Chair of the Global Ocean Commission, January 20, 2015, “Why we’re not protecting half the planet (and how we can change that),” Global Ocean Commission, http://www.globaloceancommission.org/news/why-were-not-protecting-half-the-planet-and-how-we-can-change-that/, Accessed 1/29/2015Scientists consider that marine reserves – think large parks at sea – are a critical ocean management tool. They safeguard biodiversity, habitats, and support ecological resilience against impacts of climate change to the ocean. But there’s no way to establish a fully protected reserve in the high seas even though there’s been more than a decade of dialogue on why we must find a way to do it.

Offshore Drilling

AFF. – Disads are non-unique (Drilling Now)

Drilling is coming in the status quoLaura Barron-Lopez and Timothy Cama, Staff Writers, January 27, 2015, “Atlantic drilling back on the auction block,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/overnights/230939-overnight-energy-atlantic-put-on-drilling-auction-block, Accessed 1-27-2015Parts of the Atlantic could be open to drilling for the first time in nearly 40 years under a new five-year lease plan released by the administration on Tuesday. President Obama moved to open up areas off the coast of Virginia, Georgia, North and South Carolina, and three portions off the coast of Alaska in Arctic waters.

AFF. – Drilling leads to solar power

Drilling reduces energy costs and makes solar panels cheaper to produceLoren Steffy, Staff Writer, January 27, 2015, “Why Obama's Drilling Plan Ignores America's Changing Energy Role,” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorensteffy/2015/01/27/why-obamas-drilling-plan-ignores-americas-changing-energy-role/, Accessed 1-16-2015In the long run, no one expects low energy prices to last. Developing nations such as China and India will increase their demand for oil and other resources, and sooner or later, that’s going to make them more scarce again. When that happens, we’re going to want policies that have enabled the U.S. to secure supplies — whether its potential new reserves on the East Coast or easy access to oil from Canada. Of course, oil alone won’t achieve this goal, no matter how much we produce here. We need other fuels as well, starting with natural gas and shifting more and more toward renewables as the technology and economics develop. But diversifying our energy portfolio means first making sure we have adequate supplies of what’s already available. As I’ve pointed out before, cheaper energy means cheaper manufacturing costs, which makes things like solar panels cheaper to produce.

AFF – Competitiveness internal

The U.S. is far behind Europe in deploying offshore windAri Phillips, Staff Writer, January 23, 2015, “Huge New Area Soon To Open For Offshore Wind Power In New England,” Think Progress, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/23/3614786/burst-of-wind-off-massachusetts/, Accessed 1-30-2015On January 29, the Department of Interior (DOI) will auction off the largest area of federal waters in the nation for the development of offshore wind power. More than 742,000 acres, or over 1,160 square miles, will be offered for wind development off the coast of Massachusetts. While the U.S. is yet to install its first offshore wind turbine, across the Atlantic the offshore wind industry is booming. In the first six months of 2014, Europe connected 224 offshore wind turbines in 16 wind farms to its grid. Overall, Europe has over 2,000 offshore turbines.

Atlantic Drilling Answers - A2: Economic Benefits

The industry claims exaggerate the economic potential of drillingAndrew Menaquale, Energy Analyst on the Climate and Energy Team at Oceana, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Energy by the Numbers: An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic,” http://oceana.org/en/news-media/publications/ reports/offshore-energy-by-the-numbers, Accessed 1-15-2015First, while the oil and gas industry often argues that jobs will be created by opening the Atlantic to offshore drilling, the analysis is misleading. One assumption in particular leads to an inflated estimate of production and jobs, and that is the use of technically recoverable resources, which are defined as resources that can be produced today with current technology. A portion of these resources are not likely to be fully developed due to the inability of industry to extract them profitably because of various economic factors. In fact, due to prices for oil and gas, only about half of the technically recoverable resources in the Atlantic are likely to be “economically recoverable.” Therefore, focus should only be on the resources that can be profitably recovered. Using technically recoverable resources to estimate benefits is misleading, and the resulting predicted economic benefits are therefore exaggerated.

Atlantic drilling advocates are wrong about jobs and cannot meet energy needsJackie Savitz, vice president for U.S. oceans at Oceana, January 27, 2015, “Offshore wind power means better business, better beaches,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/230767-better-business-better-beaches, Accessed 1-30-2015Besides generating more energy and for a more sustained period, offshore wind development also creates many more jobs. This is partly due to the tremendous potential of offshore wind and partly due to inflated hopes for offshore drilling. The promises of the oil and gas industry of jobs and economic benefits are based on unrealistic assumptions that ignore the associated costs and risks — risks that would be borne by coastal communities, not oil company executives. The amount of oil and gas resources that can be developed in the Atlantic is also inflated, since it counts on resources that are not profitable to develop. And after all that, Americans don't get the benefit of the oil produced — it gets sold on the world market.

The offshore drilling industry lies about potential state revenuesAndrew Menaquale, Energy Analyst on the Climate and Energy Team at Oceana, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Energy by the Numbers: An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic,” http://oceana.org/en/news-media/publications/ reports/offshore-energy-by-the-numbers, Accessed 1-15-2015Additionally, the industry and some offshore drilling proponents argue that states will benefit from funding that would come from a revenue-sharing system that currently does not exist. As a result, the revenue figures promised are not guaranteed. At the same time, if the U.S. moves forward with the expansion of offshore drilling, there could likely be very real and detrimental impacts to the environment and coastal economies.

Atlantic Drilling Answers – Not enough oil

Atlantic oil and gas would last less than 10 monthsJackie Savitz, vice president for U.S. oceans at Oceana, January 27, 2015, “Offshore wind power means better business, better beaches,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/230767-better-business-better-beaches, Accessed 1-30-2015Whether you look at it from an economic angle or an energy angle, drilling in the Atlantic simply doesn't add up. The Atlantic Ocean contains less than 4 percent of our nation's oil and gas reserves. Even if we were to extract all of the economically recoverable oil and gas, that oil wouldn't last five months and the gas would run out in 10, based on our current usage rates.

Drilling in the Atlantic stats are exaggerated and fills consumption for only 1/3 of a yearAndrew Menaquale, Energy Analyst on the Climate and Energy Team at Oceana, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Energy by the Numbers: An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic,” http://oceana.org/en/news-media/publications/ reports/offshore-energy-by-the-numbers, Accessed 1-15-2015The Atlantic has minimal fossil fuel resources compared to other regions used or being considered for domestic oil and gas production. The area targeted for production, referred to as the Atlantic OCS, contains less than 4 percent of the nation’s total oil reserves and less than 3 percent of the nation’s gas reserves. These small numbers also include the Northern Atlantic OCS, where neither the federal government nor individual states are currently engaged in advancing offshore drilling. Nonetheless, the Gulf of Mexico offshore region alone has more than 10 times the amount of oil and nearly six times the amount of gas as the entire Atlantic offshore region. Additionally, complete extraction of these resources would do little to ensure long-term domestic energy security. Even if all of the technically recoverable oil and gas reserves were extracted from the Atlantic region – including from the North Atlantic where offshore drilling remains largely untargeted – and used in the United States, domestic consumption of oil would be met for only about 250 days, and domestic consumption of gas would be met for only about 526 days. However, it is likely that just over half of the technically recoverable oil and gas is even economically viable to develop, meaning oil consumption could actually only be met for 132 days and gas consumption for only 283 days.

Atlantic Drilling Bad – General laundry list of impacts

Atlantic offshore drilling and development risk millions of marine mammals and could only provide energy for less than 10 monthsCole Mellino, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Wind Trumps Offshore Drilling in Job Growth and Energy Generation,” EcoWatch, http://ecowatch.com/2015/01/14/offshore-wind-jobs-energy/, Accessed 1-30-2015Oceana points out offshore drilling poses a serious threat to aquatic life even before “a rig is ever put in the water” because oil and gas companies use seismic air guns, which “make dynamite-like blasts to search for oil and gas deposits deep below the ocean floor.” The Obama administration announced its decision last July to consider proposals for the use of seismic air guns from Delaware down to Florida. “Based on the government’s own estimates, seismic blasting in the Atlantic could harm fish populations while injuring as many as 138,000 marine mammals like whales and dolphins, disturbing the vital activities of as many as 13.5 million more,” said Andrew Menaquale, report author and energy analyst at Oceana. Menaquale also found, again based on the government’s own estimates, that “if all of the economically recoverable offshore oil and gas in the Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf were extracted and used, oil demand would only be met for less than five months and gas demand would only be met for less than 10 months, at current consumption rates.”

Offshore oil & gas drilling jeopardizes billions in GDP, millions of jobs, and millions of marine mammalsBusiness Wire, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Wind Would Produce Twice the Jobs and Energy as Offshore Drilling in Atlantic Ocean,” http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150114005942/en/Offshore-Wind-Produce-Jobs-Energy-Offshore- Drilling#.VLgGFivF_K0, Accessed 1-15-15Oceana’s report also finds that offshore oil and gas development along the Atlantic could put at risk some of the nearly 1.4 million jobs and over $95 billion in gross domestic product that rely on healthy ocean ecosystems, mainly through fishing, tourism and recreation. In fact, Oceana says the threats of offshore drilling would begin far before a rig is ever put in the water. In July, the Obama administration announced its decision to consider proposals for the use of seismic airguns that make dynamite-like blasts to search for oil and gas deposits deep below the ocean floor in an area twice the size of California, stretching from Delaware to Florida. “Based on the government’s own estimates, seismic blasting in the Atlantic could harm fish populations while injuring as many as 138,000 marine mammals like whales and dolphins, disturbing the vital activities of as many as 13.5 million more,” said Menaquale. “Instead of working to fully understand the implications of rushing to develop offshore oil and gas, our elected officials are being blinded by imaginary short-term profits and missing the real opportunity that wind provides.”

Drilling bad – General Impacts

Offshore drilling jeopardizes marine ecosystems, jobs, and GDPCole Mellino, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Wind Trumps Offshore Drilling in Job Growth and Energy Generation,” EcoWatch, http://ecowatch.com/2015/01/14/offshore-wind-jobs-energy/, Accessed 1-30-2015It turns out that the fossil fuel industry’s estimates on revenue and job creation potential have been inflated because of the “inclusion of oil and gas resources that are not economically recoverable” and a reliance on “an assumption of a state revenue-sharing system” that just does not exist. Not only are the benefits exaggerated, but the estimates do not account for the loss of jobs and revenue in fishing, tourism and recreation, which depend on a healthy marine ecosystem. Drilling threatens the aquatic life in this ecosystem, nearly 1.4 million jobs and more than $95 billion in gross domestic product .

Drilling bad – Seismic testing/Airguns kill species

Seismic testing could kill millions of marine mammalsAndrew Menaquale, Energy Analyst on the Climate and Energy Team at Oceana, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Energy by the Numbers: An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic,” http://oceana.org/en/news-media/publications/ reports/offshore-energy-by-the-numbers, Accessed 1-15-2015Whales and dolphins rely on sound to communicate, navigate and feed, which inextricably links their ability to hear to their survival. Loud blasts from seismic airguns inhibit their ability to perform these critical life functions, which could have dire consequences for these vulnerable creatures. BOEM estimates that seismic surveys in the Atlantic could injure about 138,000 marine mammals such as whales and dolphins and disturb vital activities for as many as 13.5 million more. One marine mammal that is particularly vulnerable to seismic airguns is the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale. Right whales are slow moving and very sensitive to sound, with populations that are already decimated due to previous whaling activities and ongoing ship strikes. With only about 450 individuals of the species left worldwide, loud noise from seismic blasting could impede the recovery of this critically endangered mammal.

Sound waves can create damage for marine mammals for thousands of milesJim Waymer, Staff Writer, January 15, 2015, “Ocean advocates blast sonic cannon tests,” Florida Today, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/01/15/ocean-advocates-blast-sonic-cannon-tests/21837725/, Accessed 1-16-2015And advocates fear the potential impacts. Jim Moir, chairman of the non-profit Marine Resources Council, worries about the dozen species of whales that live in Florida's waters. "Low frequency sound waves can propagate for thousands of miles underwater," said Moir, who has also worked as a certified marine mammal observer during seismic surveying in the Gulf of Mexico. Many of the deadly effects to marine mammals are almost impossible to determine, he said, and may have long-term negative impacts on populations.

Airguns used for drilling will kill thousands of marine mammals around Florida aloneJim Waymer, Staff Writer, January 15, 2015, “Ocean advocates blast sonic cannon tests,” Florida Today, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/01/15/ocean-advocates-blast-sonic-cannon-tests/21837725/, Accessed 1-16-2015Oceana's report challenges industry assertions that drilling in the Atlantic would lead to energy independence, millions of dollars in revenue for states and thousands of jobs. Oceana lobbies for clean ocean and energy policies. And they fear federal plans to allow seismic airguns will kill or harm thousands of dolphins, whales and other marine life. Among the concerns are airguns that emit dynamite-like underwater blasts to survey for oil and gas deep beneath the ocean floor, from Cape Canaveral to Delaware, in an area twice the size of California.

Drilling uses seismic blasts that kill endangered speciesAndrew Menaquale, Energy Analyst on the Climate and Energy Team at Oceana, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Energy by the Numbers: An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic,” http://oceana.org/en/news-media/publications/ reports/offshore-energy-by-the-numbers, Accessed 1-15-2015

The first step towards offshore drilling is searching for the oil and gas deposits located off the coast. Companies tow seismic airguns behind ships that shoot loud blasts of compressed air, which travel through the water and then penetrate deep into the seabed. The sound from these blasts then returns to the surface, providing information about the location and potential quantity of oil and gas deposits based off of the geological and geophysical structure. Airguns release intense pulses of sound that can go off every 10 seconds, 24 hours a day, for days to weeks on end. These blasts create one of the loudest human-generated noises in the ocean today. For marine animals, including many endangered and threatened species that rely on hearing for their survival, seismic testing may cause serious harm. Injuries from airgun use to marine mammals can include temporary and permanent hearing loss, abandonment of habitat, and disruption of mating, feeding and migration, among others.

Offshore Wind CP – Solvency Advocates

We should expand offshore wind instead of drilling. Offshore wind avoids the inherent risks to the environment and economies from oil spills and drillingAndrew Sharpless, CEO, Oceana, and Adrian Grenier, Producer, January 22, 2015, “Offshore Wind Energy Would Produce Twice as Many Jobs as Oil and Gas Operations in the Atlantic, Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adrian-grenier/offshore-wind-energy-woul_b_6524230.html, Accessed 1-30-2015The 2010 BP Gulf oil spill disaster and the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska's Prince William Sound show just how dangerous oil drilling and transporting can be for fisheries, economies and the environment. The Atlantic does not need to be exposed to such dangers, especially when the benefits of a cleaner, more sustainable energy source are evident and available. We're glad to see that the administration has moved forward with offshore wind lease sales in the Atlantic, and urge them to continue expanding this clean energy alternative into the Mid- and South Atlantic regions instead of moving forward with seismic airgun blasting and offshore drilling.

Congress should shift subsidies from oil & gas drilling to offshore wind. This solves the risk of oil spills and CO2Nadia Prupis, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Wind Blows Drilling Out of the Water: Report,” Common Dreams, http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/01/14/offshore-wind-blows-drilling-out-water-report, Accessed 1-30-2015The report comes amid heightened debate over environmental policies recently passed or currently under consideration by Congress, such as the large subsidies for oil and gas companies hidden in the so-called "Cromnibus" spending bill. "Unlike offshore drilling, offshore wind provides power directly to coastal communities where we need energy the most, without the risk of oil spills or carbon pollution," said Menaquale. "It’s time for the U.S. to use the lessons learned from more than 20 years of offshore wind development internationally and apply them to generating clean, renewable energy off our coasts."

Offshore Wind CP – Comparatively better (general)

Offshore wind outpaces drilling for jobs, reduces warming, and provides an endless electricity supply without risk spillsAndrew Menaquale, Energy Analyst on the Climate and Energy Team at Oceana, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Energy by the Numbers: An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic,” http://oceana.org/en/news-media/publications/ reports/offshore-energy-by-the-numbers, Accessed 1-15-2015These additional job numbers understate the true difference since oil and gas resources are finite, and offshore wind will never run out. In short, when oil and gas runs out, so do the jobs. On the other hand, wind can keep on generating power and jobs well into the future. Our projections show the number of jobs that could be created by 2035; however, many more could be supported even after that date. In addition, offshore wind supplies electricity to areas near the production site. This benefits coastal communities and feeds major cities on the East Coast, including the more than 53 million people who will live in counties bordering the Atlantic Ocean by 2015. Offshore drilling, however, exports oil and gas away from the coast and often outside the United States. Further, developing offshore wind comes without the threat of a catastrophic oil spill and helps curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Offshore drilling costs jobs and economic growth. Offshore wind is a better alternative and helps secure energy independenceAndrew Sharpless, CEO, Oceana, and Adrian Grenier, Producer, January 22, 2015, “Offshore Wind Energy Would Produce Twice as Many Jobs as Oil and Gas Operations in the Atlantic, Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adrian-grenier/offshore-wind-energy-woul_b_6524230.html, Accessed 1-30-2015Did you know that coastal activity in Atlantic states--ranging from fishing, tourism, recreation and more--supports about 1.4 million jobs and net about $95 billion in gross domestic product every year? That means that anytime you head to the East Coast and spend time fishing or eating local seafood, for example, you are stimulating the local economy and supporting jobs. Unfortunately, the federal government could be threatening these jobs and economies by moving forward with offshore oil and gas exploration and development in the Atlantic. Last week, Oceana released a report that highlights the benefits of a clean and sustainable energy alternative: offshore wind energy. The report found that offshore wind would create twice the number of jobs and twice the amount of energy in the Atlantic Ocean than offshore drilling. The report also highlights how offshore drilling could jeopardize the healthy Atlantic Ocean that jobs and local economies depend on, challenging claims by the oil and gas industry that offshore drilling in the Atlantic will move the U.S. closer to energy independence, create jobs and generate revenue.

Offshore wind is better than drilling for energy independence, jobs, and the environmentAndrew Menaquale, Energy Analyst on the Climate and Energy Team at Oceana, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Energy by the Numbers: An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic,” http://oceana.org/en/news-media/publications/ reports/offshore-energy-by-the-numbers, Accessed 1-15-2015On the other hand, developing even a modest amount of available offshore wind resources would be a far better strategy to lead the U.S. toward energy independence, while generating hundreds of

thousands of new jobs. Unlike offshore drilling, offshore wind provides power directly to coastal communities without resulting in pollution, carbon dioxide emissions or spills.

Offshore Wind CP – Comparatively better (general)

Offshore drilling benefits are distorted by the industry. Offshore wind would produce twice as many jobs and energyBusiness Wire, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Wind Would Produce Twice the Jobs and Energy as Offshore Drilling in Atlantic Ocean,” http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150114005942/en/Offshore-Wind-Produce-Jobs-Energy-Offshore- Drilling#.VLgGFivF_K0, Accessed 1-15-15Oceana released a new report today that finds offshore wind would produce twice the number of jobs and twice the amount of energy as offshore drilling in the Atlantic Ocean. The report, titled Offshore Energy by the Numbers, An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic, challenges recent claims by the oil and gas industry that opening the East Coast to offshore drilling will lead the United States to energy independence, generate millions of dollars in revenue for states and create thousands of jobs in the process. Oceana’s analysis instead finds that the benefits projected by the industry appear to be exaggerated due to the inclusion of oil and gas resources that are not economically recoverable, thereby inflating the potential benefits. Industry estimates also rely upon an assumption of a state revenue-sharing system that does not exist.

Offshore Wind CP – Wind = more jobs

Offshore wind would provide 71% more jobs than drilling off the Atlantic coastNadia Prupis, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Wind Blows Drilling Out of the Water: Report,” Common Dreams, http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/01/14/offshore-wind-blows-drilling-out-water-report, Accessed 1-30-2015On a state-by-state basis, job creation projections increased as much as seven times more for wind energy than offshore drilling in all seven of the states being considered for fossil fuel extraction. In Florida, for instance, wind energy could create 28,317 lifetime jobs, while drilling would only produce 3,828. Overall, wind energy could create 71 percent more jobs than drilling across the entire Atlantic coast.

Offshore wind can double the amount of jobs created versus drillingAndrew Sharpless, CEO, Oceana, and Adrian Grenier, Producer, January 22, 2015, “Offshore Wind Energy Would Produce Twice as Many Jobs as Oil and Gas Operations in the Atlantic, Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adrian-grenier/offshore-wind-energy-woul_b_6524230.html, Accessed 1-30-2015One of the oil and gas industry's prevailing arguments for offshore drilling is job creation. But our report found that offshore wind would create 91,000 more jobs than offshore drilling, or about double the number of jobs created from offshore drilling. Since the wind never runs out, these jobs would grow and remain stable in the future.

The newest study proves drilling industries lie about job creation numbers. Offshore wind avoids all the risks while providing a better energy source and jobsNadia Prupis, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Wind Blows Drilling Out of the Water: Report,” Common Dreams, http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/01/14/offshore-wind-blows-drilling-out-water-report, Accessed 1-30-2015While the oil and gas industry continues to push for expanded drilling operations off the Atlantic coast—and receives government subsidies for it—a new report by an ocean conservation group finds that the benefits produced by wind energy eclipse those of fossil fuels, with far fewer risks. Many of the benefits touted by oil and gas companies do not hold up under scrutiny, according to the Oceana report, Offshore Energy by the Numbers: An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic (pdf). The industry often inflates its job creation figures by including inaccessible resources in their calculations, for example.

Offshore Wind CP – Avoids oil spills

Offshore winds avoids the risk of inevitable new oil spillsNadia Prupis, Staff Writer, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Wind Blows Drilling Out of the Water: Report,” Common Dreams, http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/01/14/offshore-wind-blows-drilling-out-water-report, Accessed 1-30-2015Moreover, the report notes that wind energy operations carry far fewer risks than fossil fuel extraction. Oil and gas drilling not only creates pollution as a byproduct of its operations, it also carries the danger of spills and other disasters. In the three years following the catastrophic 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported that offshore drilling in that area and California alone "accounted for a total of 765 injuries, 10 deaths, 15 losses of well control, 348 fires/explosions and 11 spills of over 50 barrels."

Offshore Wind

Good – Reduces fossil fuels and Drilling

Expanding offshore wind fosters a transition away from fossil fuels and dangerous drilling practicesAndrew Menaquale, Energy Analyst on the Climate and Energy Team at Oceana, January 14, 2015, “Offshore Energy by the Numbers: An Economic Analysis of Offshore Drilling and Wind Energy in the Atlantic,” http://oceana.org/en/news-media/publications/ reports/offshore-energy-by-the-numbers, Accessed 1-15-2015A modest development of our domestic offshore wind resource would offer benefits that cannot be matched by offshore drilling. Offshore wind has the potential to generate more jobs, produce more power, and lead to a higher degree of energy independence than offshore drilling for oil and gas. In addition, offshore winds blow strongest during the day and at other times of peak demand, providing a critical clean energy power source to the grid when it is needed the most. Perhaps most importantly, however, offshore wind development could help the U.S. transition away from fossil fuels and toward clean and renewable energy, a necessary shift given the widespread adverse impacts of offshore drilling, including those related to climate change.

Seabed Mining

Seabed Mining destroys the environment

Seabed mining risks large-scale marine species extinctionCarl Zimmer, Staff Writer, January 16, 2015, “Ocean life faces mass extinction, broad study says,” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/102343516, Accessed 1-16-2015Mining operations, too, are poised to transform the ocean. Contracts for seabed mining now cover 460,000 square miles underwater, the researchers found, up from zero in 2000. Seabed mining has the potential to tear up unique ecosystems and introduce pollution into the deep sea. The oceans are so vast that their ecosystems may seem impervious to change. But Dr. McClenachan warned that the fossil record shows that global disasters have wrecked the seas before. "Marine species are not immune to extinction on a large scale," she said.

Seabed mining is expanding, but there is huge potential for even more massive damage to the planetPlanet Experts, Editorial Staff, January 16, 2015, “Earth’s Oceans ‘On a Precipice of a Major Extinction Event,’ Says Scientist,” http://www.planetexperts.com/earths-oceans-precipice-major-extinction-event-says-scientist/, Accessed 1-29-2015The studies used by McCauley and his research team have separately investigated a range of ocean issues, such as overfishing, seabed mining, fossil record analysis and more. However, this is the first time that these various factors have been incorporated into a single document and allowed researchers a full, detailed account of what man has done to the ocean. The short answer: Nothing good. In what reads like a nightmarish extrapolation of Planet Experts’ own “Top 10 Things We Learned About the Ocean in 2014,” McCauley’s analysis recounts 20 million square miles of habitat loss due to fishermen dredging the ocean bottom; a 40 percent decline in coral reefs (due partly to ocean warming and acidification); ocean warming driving migrations of marine populations farther north; the increasing collisions between whales and container ships; and the potential for even greater pollution and habitat destruction as seabed mining begins in earnest. In the year 2000, there was no seabed mining taking place on the planet. According to the report, seabed mining contracts now cover 460,000 square miles of underwater land.

Politics DA Debates

TPA will pass now

TPA will pass nowVictoria Guida, Staff Writer, January 29, 2015, “Boehner says TPA approval 'certainly likely',” Politico, http://www.politico.com/morningtrade/0115/morningtrade16915.html, Accessed 1-30-2015House Speaker John Boehner doesn’t see many areas of cooperation with President Barack Obama, but in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday he included trade promotion authority on a short list of legislation that could get signed into law. “I think getting the trade promotion authority for the president that he's asked for is certainly likely,” Boehner said. Three other items that could move with help from the White House are an authorization of the use of military force to deal with ISIS and other threats around the world, a long-term infrastructure bill and cybersecurity legislation, he said.

GOP overwhelmingly support fast track for TPPDavid Nakamura, Staff Writer, January 27, 2015, “Critical of Obama’s executive actions, GOP now wants to give him more power on trade,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/critical-of-obamas-past-actions-gop-now-wants-to-give-him-more-power-on-trade/2015/01/27/5e4d3156-a596-11e4-a06b-9df2002b86a0_story.html, Accessed 1-30-2015Republicans have consistently railed at President Obama’s exercise of his executive authority, disparaging him as “an emperor” who has ignored Congress on immigration, climate and Cuba. Now that they control both houses of Congress, those same critics are on the verge of handing the president expansive new powers to circumvent those who want to stand in his way on trade. GOP leaders in both chambers say they are close to introducing legislation that would grant the administration broad authority to finalize the Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of the largest free-trade pacts in the nation’s history. Lawmakers would not be allowed to amend the terms, and Congress would be required to hold a relatively quick up-or-down vote that could not be filibustered.

TPA will pass now – Needs more Democrats

TPA is close but uncertain. Obama needs to get a small amount of democrat supportDavid Nakamura, Staff Writer, January 27, 2015, “Critical of Obama’s executive actions, GOP now wants to give him more power on trade,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/critical-of-obamas-past-actions-gop-now-wants-to-give-him-more-power-on-trade/2015/01/27/5e4d3156-a596-11e4-a06b-9df2002b86a0_story.html, Accessed 1-30-2015Despite the tenuous alliance between the White House and the congressional GOP, the process remains uncertain. Democrats, organized labor and environmental groups have cited numerous concerns over the trade pact and warned that Congress cannot afford to relinquish any of its oversight powers on a massive deal built upon negotiations that have largely been kept hidden from public view. GOP leaders said the real outreach on trade will be for Obama to convince skeptical members of his own party ; both sides agree that a small number of Democratic votes will be needed to ensure passage of a fast-track bill. Opponents of the trade deal interrupted the Senate committee hearing Tuesday, shouting and holding signs before Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah) ordered them removed from the room.

Obama needs at least 30 Democrats to pass TPALauren French and Anna Palmer, Staff Writers, January 30, 2015, “Obama cranks up trade pitch to Dems,” Politico, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/obama-trade-pitch-114781.html, Accessed 1-30-2015The administration hopes to secure the 30 to 50 Democratic yes votes in the House that might be needed to push a trade bill over the top. But sources have said the White House is still only informally counting votes, and Obama was careful to soften the hard sell during a closed-door meeting with lawmakers here Thursday night. He said the White House “will make [a] substantive case” for a trade deal but won’t “go after folks” or make the vote a “litmus test” for Democrats, according to sources in the room.

TPA Good – Expands trade

TPA will lead to major trade expansionLauren French and Anna Palmer, Staff Writers, January 30, 2015, “Obama cranks up trade pitch to Dems,” Politico, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/obama-trade-pitch-114781.html, Accessed 1-30-2015The “trade promotion authority” legislation would expedite the passage of trade deals by letting Obama submit the final agreements to Congress for an up-or-down vote, without amendments. That authority is viewed as key to wrapping up two giant agreements — the Trans-Pacific Partnership with 11 Asia-Pacific countries, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the 28 nations of the European Union — because other nations would have the assurance that Congress won’t undo any concessions included in the deals. The trade pacts have drawn opposition from liberal groups concerned about their effect on U.S. jobs and wages, labor rights, the environment and intellectual property protections. And House Democrats are deeply divided on giving Obama — or any president — authority to negotiate trade packages without letting Congress amend the terms. Any legislation from Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), top committee Democrat Ron Wyden of Oregon, and House Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will probably be unveiled in late February. The Finance Committee is expected to first. Hatch said Friday that the fast-track legislation is the country’s “most important tool to open markets.”

Trade is critical to the economy and jobsSean Hackbarth, Staff Writer, January 7, 2015, “Why Democrats Should Support Trade-Promotion Authority,” USCOC, https://www.uschamber.com/blog/why-democrats-should-support-trade-promotion-authority, Accessed 1-30-2015Trade is critical to the U.S. economy and opening world markets to more American goods and services is essential to economic growth and job creation. One in every five American jobs depends on global trade , and one in four U.S. manufacturing jobs depend on exports. Mack McLarty, former Chief of Staff to President Bill Clinton, took the pages of the Wall Street Journal to urge Congressional Democrats to support giving President Obama Trade-Promotion Authority (TPA): Those of us who believe that trade is vital to our economic future are looking to President Obama to try to change that narrative. When he does, Democrats in Congress as well as Republicans should listen with open minds.

TPA Is essential to expanding fair trade

Lauren French and Anna Palmer, Staff Writers, January 30, 2015, “Obama cranks up trade pitch to Dems,” Politico, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/obama-trade-pitch-114781.html, Accessed 1-30-2015“The U.S. needs to lead on trade,” Hatch said in a speech to the American Enterprise Institute. “We need to establish rules that hold other nations accountable for their unfair trade practices. And we need to tear down barriers that block our goods from foreign markets. We can only do that if we renew TPA and do so soon.” Both opponents and supporters base much of their case on potential growth for the middle class — an issue central to the House Democrats’ de-facto messaging strategy. Supporters argue that the middle class can’t expand without the economic growth that comes with free trade, while opponents say wages will drop and jobs go overseas if trade deals don’t offer strong protections.

TPA Good – Key to TPP

Fast track is key to getting TPPDavid Nakamura, Staff Writer, January 27, 2015, “Critical of Obama’s executive actions, GOP now wants to give him more power on trade,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/critical-of-obamas-past-actions-gop-now-wants-to-give-him-more-power-on-trade/2015/01/27/5e4d3156-a596-11e4-a06b-9df2002b86a0_story.html, Accessed 1-30-2015The Obama administration hopes that expanded trade powers will help negotiators achieve a final breakthrough this year on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a massive free-trade and regulatory agreement between the United States and 11 other countries. The deal has been hung up over a number of thorny issues — mostly between the United States and Japan on agriculture and automobiles — and U.S. officials believe they can win more concessions if other nations believe Congress has authorized the administration to put its best and final offer on the table.

A2: TPA

Obama backed off pushing for TPAVictoria Guida, Staff Writer, January 27, 2015, “Froman faces congressional grilling — TPP show will go on — Ag groups lobbying for TPA,” Politico, http://www.politico.com/morningtrade/0115/morningtrade16871.html, Accessed 1-30-2015Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch will tell Froman that the president’s call for trade promotion authority in the State of the Union was “long overdue,” according to an excerpt of his opening statement released by his office. Still, Hatch acknowledges the administration is “much more engaged” on pushing TPA than it was last year. Obama called for TPA in his 2014 State of the Union speech but quickly dropped the issue after then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid balked at moving the bill.

A2: TPP – Won’t check China

TPP won’t check the rise of Chinese influenceClyde Prestowitz, president of the Economic Strategy Institute, January 27, 2015, “TPP is a trade deal we don't need,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/tpp-is-a-trade-deal-we-dont-need-b99433984z1-289989991.html, Accessed 1-30-2015In any case, the ever-closer linking of the U.S. economy to those of the TPP countries over the last 35 years has not prevented the rise of Chinese power, nor has it deterred U.S. trade partners and allies from developing ever closer ties with China. Further, the GDP of the combined TPP countries already dwarfs that of China. But this means nothing. The TPP is not going to bring together nations such as Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei to gang up against China. That is just not going to happen. Thus the TPP fails on both economic and political grounds. It is no more than a late lament for the dying age of free-trade agreements.

TPP claims about China are counter-intuitiveClyde Prestowitz, president of the Economic Strategy Institute, January 27, 2015, “TPP is a trade deal we don't need,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/tpp-is-a-trade-deal-we-dont-need-b99433984z1-289989991.html, Accessed 1-30-2015Of course, those promoting the TPP know all this, which leads them to make a backup argument, namely that the deal would strengthen security ties between the U.S. and its Asian allies and thereby curb the increasing power and influence of China. For instance, a recent Foreign Policy article argued that the TPP would reinvigorate the economies of America's Asian allies and that China would subsequently be "dwarfed" by the economic power of the TPP countries harnessed together. It is ironic that those now calling for the TPP as a bulwark against Chinese power are precisely the same people who most vociferously promoted China's admission to the WTO, a step that greatly spurred the growth of China's economy and China's geopolitical power.

TPP Bad – Jobs / Outsourcing

TPP causes outsourcingJohn Connors, Dean of the US House of Representatives, Ranking Member, House Judiciary Committee, January 28, 2015, “Trans-Pacific Partnership: Fast Track to Job Losses,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-conyers/trans-pacific-partnership_b_6571496.html, Accessed 1-31-2015Much like NAFTA, the TPP has more to do with big-business protectionism than with genuine free trade. Of TPP's 29 sections, only five relate to traditional trade issues like lowering tariffs. The rest of the chapters seek to limit the powers of governments to protect the safety of food, medicines, and the environment, as well as to forestall governments from implementing financial regulations of the sort that are needed to safeguard taxpayer money from bank bailouts. Most damaging of all, the TPP would create new incentives for corporations to ship jobs overseas and would forbid governments from using strategies like "Buy American" provisions that keep jobs in our country.

TPP Bad – Medicines

TPP sacrifices half a billion people from lack of medicinesDoctors Without Borders, Staff Writer, January 26, 2015, “TPP Trade Deal Will Be Devastating for Access to Affordable Medicines,” http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/tpp-trade-deal-will-be-devastating-access-affordable-medicines, Accessed 1-31-2015The United States government continues to demand intellectual property provisions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) that will limit access to medicines for at least half a billion people, said the international medical humanitarian organization Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) on Monday as negotiators continued another round of secret meetings in New York. “MSF and many others have repeatedly voiced concerns that the TPP is a looming disaster for people who rely on access to affordable generic medicines, both internationally and in the United States,” said Rohit Malpani, director of policy and analysis at the MSF Access Campaign. “Despite this outcry, the US continues to work behind closed doors, without any input from the public, experts, or elected officials, to aggressively push for intellectual property provisions that put the profits of pharmaceutical companies ahead of people’s health.”

Over 800 million people will lose life-saving drugs after TPPRalph G. Neas, president and CEO of the Generic Pharmaceutical Association (GPhA), January 28, 2015, “Trans-Pacific Partnership: Ambitious enough?,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/231098-trans-pacific-partnership-ambitious-enough, Accessed 1-31-2015Millions of Americans daily rely on medicines of all kinds to manage health conditions. And while we tend to think of healthcare only in the context of our personal experience and national perspectives, our healthcare is impacted by international policies as well. Indeed, a proposed international trade agreement, known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), will affect the way some 800 million people around the world take their medicine by limiting access to safe and affordable prescription drugs. The generic industry supports balanced trade agreements that promote competition and access to affordable medicines. Unfortunately, the TPP as currently negotiated includes patent provisions which serve only to extend the generous monopolies brand-name medicines already enjoy.

TPP raises drug prices by restricting intellectual property rights causing unnecessary deaths worldwideJoseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, a professor at Columbia and a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, January 30, 2015, “Don't Trade Away Our Health,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/opinion/dont-trade-away-our-health.html?_r=0, Accessed 1-31-2015Of course, pharmaceutical companies claim they need to charge high prices to fund their research and development. This just isn’t so. For one thing, drug companies spend more on marketing and advertising than on new ideas. Overly restrictive intellectual property rights actually slow new discoveries, by making it more difficult for scientists to build on the research of others and by choking off the exchange of ideas that is critical to innovation. As it is, most of the important innovations come out of our universities and research centers, like the National Institutes of Health, funded by government and foundations. The efforts to raise drug prices in the T.P.P. take us in the wrong direction. The whole world may come to pay a price in the form of worse health and unnecessary deaths.

TPP Bad – Medicines

Passing TPP prevents AIDS drug treatments and exacerbates economic inequalityDoctors Without Borders, Staff Writer, January 26, 2015, “TPP Trade Deal Will Be Devastating for Access to Affordable Medicines,” http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/tpp-trade-deal-will-be-devastating-access-affordable-medicines, Accessed 1-31-2015If signed in its current form, the TPP—a far-reaching trade agreement involving the US and 11 other Pacific-Rim countries—would force all countries to grant additional drug patents, extending monopolies on medicines beyond 20 years, a practice called patent "evergreening." The agreement would also impose an unprecedented extended period of exclusivity for clinical data required to prove the safety and efficacy of drugs and vaccines that are “biologic” products, extending monopolies in TPP countries, which will delay lower-cost versions of these medicines from entering the market. “The intellectual property provisions of the TPP completely undermine the Administration’s stated public health goals, including its own goal to achieve an AIDS-free generation,” said Malpani. “While President Obama speaks of expanding health care and tackling issues of income inequality at home, he is actively promoting a trade agreement that will exacerbate economic disparities and endanger people’s health care worldwide.”

Climate Change

SO2 Good – Causes cooling

Volcanos prove increasing SO2 causes coolingHannah Osborne, Staff Writer, January 12, 2015, “Climate change: Global warming hiatus explained by atmosphere-cooling volcanic eruptions,” International Business Times, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/climate-change-global-warming-hiatus-explained-by-atmosphere-cooling-volcanic-eruptions-1483005, Accessed 1-31-2015The recent hiatus in global warming is a result – in part – of volcanic eruptions, scientists have said. Sulphur dioxide emitted during eruptions has long been known to cool the atmosphere but recent research has identified further "climate signals" showing the effect of volcanoes on global temperatures. The warmest year ever recorded was 1998, after which temperatures appeared to level off. This hiatus has often been used by climate change deniers to suggest warming is not a result of manmade activities.

CO2 Good – Boosts agriculture / earthworms

Increasing CO2 stimulate earthworm productivity, which increases crop yields by 25%Keith E. Idso, Vice President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, et. al., January 28, 2015, “Helping Feed the Future World: Earthworms in CO2-Enriched Air,” CO2 Science, http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/jan/a26.php, Accessed 1-31-2015First of all, the Dutch, Brazilian and U.S. scientists report that, on average, "earthworm presence in agroecosystems leads to a 25% increase in crop yield and a 23% increase in aboveground biomass." In addition, they discovered that "earthworms stimulate plant growth predominantly through releasing nitrogen locked away in residue and soil organic matter." And they say that "in higher pH soils, the earthworm effect is significantly smaller than in lower pH soils." Therefore, just as rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations tend to lower the pH of the water found in Earth's rivers, lakes and oceans - via what is often referred to as "ocean acidification" in the latter instance - so too would this phenomenon tend to lower the pH of the moisture found in Earth's soils, thereby optimizing the ability of earthworms to release the crop-enhancing nitrogen that is to be found in soil residue and organic matter the world over, which should subsequently lead to significant increases in crop yields the world over.

CO2 Good – Boosts agriculture / crop yields

CO2 build-up causes record crop yieldsBarbara Hollingsworth, Staff Writer, January 6, 2015, “Record CO2 Coincides With Record-Breaking Crop Yields, 'Greening of Globe',” CNS News, http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/record-co2-coincides-record-breaking-crop-yields-greening-globe, Accessed 1-31-2015“Since the 1970s we’ve seen an increase in wood production and that’s making these trees get even bigger than they were growing earlier in the 20th century,” said Emily Burns, director of science at Save the Redwoods League, who added that the accelerated growth winds up naturally sequestering the additional carbon. That’s not a coincidence, says Dr. James Taylor, senior fellow for environmental policy at the Heartland Institute. “For virtually every crop that’s grown in the United States and globally, we see record crop production on just about a yearly basis,” he said. This is happening at the same time that CO2 levels have been rising because plants use the greenhouse gas to make food in a process called photosynthesis . “Claims that global warming and more atmospheric carbon dioxide are harming crop production are simply preposterous, and they’re proven preposterous by the real-world, objective data,” Taylor told CNSNews.com.

High levels of CO2 increase crop yields. Plants grow faster and are more productiveBarbara Hollingsworth, Staff Writer, January 6, 2015, “Record CO2 Coincides With Record-Breaking Crop Yields, 'Greening of Globe',” CNS News, http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/record-co2-coincides-record-breaking-crop-yields-greening-globe, Accessed 1-31-2015Instead of diminishing crop yields, high levels of CO2 actually help to increase them, he said. “As we add more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, it can be expected that that’s going to benefit crop production because carbon dioxide is aerial plant fertilizer. That’s what people pump into greenhouses to facilitate plant growth,” Taylor told CNSNews.com. “Just as people have demonstrated in greenhouses, where plants that are growing in greenhouses - with more atmospheric carbon dioxide there, those plants grow more rapidly and are more productive - such has been the case also in the natural environment when we’ve had more atmospheric carbon dioxide,” Taylor explained.

CO2 Bad – A2: crop yields

Climate change crushes crop yields. At best there’s mass starvation by 2050Tim Radford, Staff Writer at Climate News Network, December 27, 2014, “Study: Crop yields could plunge in warming climate,” Standard Examiner, http://www.standard.net/Environment/2014/12/27/Study-Crop-yields-could-plunge-in-warming-climate, Accessed 1-31-2015New research warns that climate change will transform agriculture, with a drop in yields of up to 18 percent by 2050 in terms of calories harvested. By then, the global population will have risen by more than 18 percent, so the consequences could be calamitous. That’s the worst projected outcome. By the same date, the researchers say, yields in terms of calories could have risen by 3 percent, but that would still mean widespread hunger and poverty.

Methane Key – Livestock industry outweighs fossil fuels

The livestock industry is a uniquely key place to reduce warming and avoid tipping points. It outweighs fossil fuels and renewablesAndy Vrbicek, JD candidate at Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law at Arizona State University, January 18, 2015, “The World’s Leading Driver of Climate Change: Animal Agriculture,” New Harvest, http://www.new-harvest.org/2015/01/worlds-leading-driver-climate-change-animal-agriculture/, Accessed 1-31-2015There is something of a silver lining. Recall that methane only stays in the atmosphere for 12 years. For this reason—and because of methane’s monstrous GWP and the sheer volume of current emission levels—methane and the livestock industry represent a unique opportunity, and among our only hope, for mitigating runaway global warming. Thanks to methane’s short half-life, through swift and drastic emission reductions we can relatively quickly undo significant amounts of damage, and potentially stave off dramatic climate change tipping points. Additionally, whereas most industries can only achieve significant GHG emission reductions through a switch to renewable energy (which will necessitate some 20 years and $18 trillion dollars for the development of sufficient infrastructure), the livestock industry is unique in that most of its emissions do not come from energy use but from biological processes. Thus, while enormous obstacles stand in the way of widespread implementation of renewable energies, significant reductions in livestock populations on the other hand can be accomplished with relative ease (made all the easier by forthcoming meat replacement technologies). And, with the industry as the world’s leading methane and total GHG emitter, reductions here would have a greater (and, importantly, quicker) positive environmental impact. For these reasons, the immediate focus of climate change mitigation efforts should be shifted away from cars and coal and squarely onto cows and methane.

Methane outweighs CO2 and the livestock industry alone accounts for a huge amountAndy Vrbicek, JD candidate at Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law at Arizona State University, January 18, 2015, “The World’s Leading Driver of Climate Change: Animal Agriculture,” New Harvest, http://www.new-harvest.org/2015/01/worlds-leading-driver-climate-change-animal-agriculture/, Accessed 1-31-2015Because the livestock industry is the world’s leading emitter of methane—with 44% of the industry’s total GHG emissions in the form of methane—which GWP timeframe is used is important. One hundred-year timeframes, such as used by the FAO, are problematic. The IPCC states this on the matter: “There is no scientific argument for selecting 100 years compared with other choices. The choice of time horizon is a value judgment since it depends on the relative weight assigned to effects at different times.” Yet, the IPCC’s equivocality here is unfortunate and ignores compelling reasons why a 20-year (or shorter) timeframe is a far more relevant metric.The International Energy Agency has suggested that unless drastic reductions are immediately achieved, atmospheric GHG’s could reach levels which will inevitably result in irreversible catastrophic climate change. Thus, as many scientists have recommended, environmental assessment experts should use 10- or 20-year GWP timeframes, as policy makers must be primarily focused on the coming decade or two, opposed to the coming century. Modest warming over the coming decades could trigger runaway feedback loops, catastrophic tipping points leading to exponential warming. For instance, as temperatures rise and melt permafrost and methane clathrates, more methane is released causing accelerated warming, which in turn causes more melting and methane release, which in turn causes further accelerated warming, and so on and so forth. Thus 100-year timeframes are largely irrelevant for

failing to reflect the urgency of the matter and the immediate need for significant reductions in potent GHG’s like methane. Indeed, viewed under a 10-year timeframe, methane is seen as the world’s leading driver of global warming, greater even than CO2.