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vehicle safety ratings estimated from police reported crash data

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  • VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2012 UPDATE

    AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2010

    by

    Stuart Newstead Linda Watson

    & Max Cameron

    Report No. 313 August 2012

  • ii MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE

    Project Sponsored By

  • VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS: 2012 UPDATE iii

    MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE

    Report No. Report Date ISBN ISSN Pages 313 August 2012 0 7326 2383 9 1835-4815 (On-Line) 60 + Appendices Title and sub-title: VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS ESTIMATED FROM POLICE REPORTED CRASH DATA: 2012 UPDATE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND CRASHES DURING 1987-2010 Author(s) Type of Report & Period Covered Newstead, S.V., Watson, L.M and Cameron, M.H. Summary Report, 1982-2010 Sponsoring Organisations - This project was funded as contract research by the following organisations: Road Traffic Authority of NSW, Royal Automobile Club of Victoria, NRMA Motoring and Services, VicRoads, Royal Automobile Club of Western Australia, Transport Accident Commission, New Zealand Transport Agency, the New Zealand Automobile Association, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Royal Automobile Club of Queensland, Royal Automobile Association of South Australia, South Australian Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure, Accident Compensation Corporation New Zealand and by grants from the Australian Government Department of Infrastructure and Transport and the Road Safety Council of Western Australia Abstract:

    This study describes the calculation of updated ratings that measure the relative safety of vehicles in preventing severe injury to people involved in crashes. Three different aspects of secondary safety are examined: crashworthiness which focuses on drivers of the rated vehicle, aggressivity which focuses on drivers of other vehicles and unprotected road users such as pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists colliding with the rated vehicle and total secondary safety which examines the combined crashworthiness and aggressivity performance of the rated vehicle. Updated ratings for 1982-2010 model vehicles were estimated based on data on crashes in Victoria and New South Wales during 1987-2010, in Queensland, Western Australia and New Zealand during 1991-2010 and in South Australia during 1995-2010. Each rating is measured as a combination of injury severity (the risk of death or serious injury given an injury was sustained) and injury risk (the risk of injury given crash involvement). The ratings were adjusted for the sex and age of the person whose injury outcome was being measured, speed limit at the crash location, number of vehicles, crash configuration and type or road user involved where relevant, the jurisdiction in which the crash occurred and the year in which the crash occurred. These factors were strongly related to the risk of an injury being sustained in the crash and the likelihood of injuries sustained being severe. Each rating estimates the risk of being killed or admitted to hospital when involved in a crash, to a degree of accuracy represented by the confidence limits of the rating in each case.

    Crashworthiness estimates and their associated confidence limits were obtained for 506 vehicle models classified into 10 market groups. Aggressivity rating estimates and their associated confidence limits were obtained for 458 vehicle models. The total secondary safety index estimates and their associated confidence limits were obtained for 564 vehicle models classified into 10 market groups. A method for presenting the ratings for consumer information is also described. The rating presentation classifies vehicles according to where their rating lies in relation to a best performance benchmark.

    The relationship between vehicle crashworthiness and the year of manufacture of Australian passenger and light commercial vehicles manufactured from 1964 to 2010 was also investigated. Trends were examined by year of manufacture both for the fleet as a whole and by market group for vehicles manufactured from 1982 to 2010.

    The results of this report are based on a number of assumptions and warrant a number of qualifications that should be noted. Key Words: (IRRD except when marked*) Injury, Vehicle Occupant, Collision, Passenger Car Unit, Passive Safety System, Statistics Disclaimer: This Report is produced for the purposes of providing information concerning the safety of vehicles involved in crashes. It is based upon information provided to the Monash University Accident Research Centre by VicRoads, the Transport Accident Commission, the New South Wales Roads and Traffic Authority, NRMA Ltd, Queensland Transport, the Western Australian Department of Main Roads, South Australian Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure and the New Zealand Ministry of Transport. Any republication of the findings of the Report whether by way of summary or reproduction of the tables or otherwise is prohibited unless prior written consent is obtained from the Monash University Accident Research Centre and any conditions attached to that consent are satisfied. A brochure based on this report is available from the sponsoring organisations and may be freely quoted.

    Reproduction of this page is authorised Monash University Accident Research Centre Building 70, Monash University Victoria 3800, Australia. Telephone: +61 3 9905 4371, Fax: +61 3 9905 4363

  • iv MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report describes the development of further updated vehicle secondary safety ratings for 1982-2010 model vehicles. The ratings produced cover vehicle crashworthiness, aggressivity and total secondary safety. Crashworthiness ratings measure the relative safety of vehicles in preventing severe injury to their own drivers in crashes whilst aggressivity ratings measure the serious injury risk vehicles pose to other road users with which they collide. The aggressivity rating measure is based on collisions between the vehicle being rated and both other vehicles and unprotected road users including pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists. The total secondary safety index measure integrates into one measure the combined crashworthiness and aggressivity performance of a vehicle in a way most representative of the crash population involving the vehicle fleet being rated. It considers relative injury outcomes in the full range of crashes involving light passenger vehicles including single and multi vehicle crashes, crashes with heavy vehicle and crashes involving unprotected road users. All three measures of vehicle secondary safety performance are estimated from data on real crashes reported to police. The update is based on crash data from Victoria and New South Wales during 1987-2010, from Queensland, Western Australia and New Zealand during 1991-2010 and from South Australia during 1995-2010. The assembled database covered 4,150,305 road users involved in tow-away crashes in New South Wales, South Australia, Queensland and Western Australia during 1987-2010 and 972,295 road users of 1982-2010 model vehicles who were injured in crashes in Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, Queensland or New Zealand during 1987-2010. The crashworthiness ratings estimate the risk of a driver of the focus vehicle being killed or admitted to hospital when involved in a tow-away crash, to a degree of accuracy represented by the confidence limits of the rating in each case. The crashworthiness ratings were adjusted for the driver sex and age, the speed limit at the crash location, the year in which the crash occurred, the jurisdiction in which the crash occurred and the number of vehicles involved in the crash. These factors were found to be strongly associated with risk of injury when involved in a crash and the severity of injuries received. Adjustments were made with the aim of measuring the effects of vehicle factors alone, uncontaminated by other non-vehicle related factors available in the data that affected crash severity and injury susceptibility. Crashworthiness ratings and their associated confidence limits were calculated for 506 individual vehicle models manufactured between the years 1982-2010. Vehicles were classified into one of 10 market groups for presentation of the ratings with average crashworthiness of vehicles in each market group estimated. The measure of aggressivity was calculated for 458 models of Australian and New Zealand passenger vehicles manufactured between the years 1982-2010. The aggressivity ratings estimate the risk of a vehicle driver or unprotected road user impacting with the focus vehicle model being killed or admitted to hospital when involved in a crash. Average aggressivity for vehicles in each of the 10 defined market groups was also estimated. Estimated vehicle aggressivity towards drivers of other vehicles or unprotected road users was found to have little or no relationship with ratings of vehicle crashworthiness, demonstrating the independence of the two complementary measures. The total secondary safety index measures the average risk of death or serious injury to all light passenger vehicle drivers and unprotected road users (pedestrians, cyclists and

  • VEHICLE SAFETY RATINGS: 2012 UPDATE v

    motorcyclists) when involved in a crash with the rated light passenger vehicle to a degree of accuracy represented by the confidence limits of the index in each case. It is a measure of the combined crashworthiness and aggressivity performance of the rated vehicle. Total secondary safety index estimates and their associated confidence limits were obtained f

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