Vectors of Change in Oceans and Seas Marine Life, Impact on Economic Sectors

• Project Coordinator: Mel Austen, PML

• Project Manager: Jenny Lockett, PML

• EU Project Officer: Jacques Fuchs

An ‘Oceans of Tomorrow’ European Project supported within Themes 2, 5, 6 and 7 of the European Commission Seventh

Framework Programme

• Feb 1 2011-Jan 31 2015

• €12.5 million funding from the EC, total cost €16.6 million

• First group of 3 EU funded ‘Ocean of Tomorrow’ projects

The Vision VECTORS seeks to develop integrated,

multidisciplinary research-based understanding that will contribute the information and knowledge required for addressing forthcoming requirements, policies and regulations across multiple sectors.

Key facts

38 partners from 16

countries

Human use of the European marine environment is increasing and diversifying.

Current and emerging pressures are multiple and interacting e.g. from

• transport • energy devices • exploitation of living resources • discharges

together with environmental changes (including climate change)

Need for VECTORS: Pressures on our marine

environment

Photo: Giacomo Milisenda (CONISMA)

New means for human induced-changes in marine life especially outbreaks, invasives and changes in productivity

• Mechanisms? • Ecosystem Impacts? • Social and Economic Impacts?

What are the future consequences of: • Pressures and vectors of change in marine

life • Adaptation and mitigation measures (e.g.

new technologies and structures, new ballast water practices, ocean and off-shore wind energy devices and new fishing strategies)

Need for VECTORS

1. To collate understanding of the different current and potential future pressures and vectors of change in the marine environment

2. To better understand the mechanisms of changes in marine life and the role of human activity

3. To determine the impacts of changes in marine life on ecosystems, their structure and functioning, the services they provide, as well as the economic and societal implications

VECTORS Objectives

VECTORS Objectives

4. To project the future changes and consequences of multi- sectoral human activity in the marine environment under future possible scenarios of adaptation and mitigation

5. To synthesise the derived

information into innovative, predictive management tools and strategies targeted to different policy makers and other stakeholders

Project conceptual flow and structure

Climate change

Acidification

Pollution

… etc, including interactions

Exploitation

WP1 PRESSURES

and drivers of change and

their interactions

Outbreaks

of indigenous

spp

Invasions

by exotics

Distributions

& productivity

WP2 MECHANISMS

by which pressures

and their interactions

cause changes in

terms of:

Biodiversity

& functioning

Ecosystem

services

Economy Society

WP3 IMPACTS

And interactive

effects of those

changes on:

Human Behaviour

WP 5 PROJECTIONS

of impacts of those

changes under different

interacting scenarios Ecosystem

modelling

Economic

futures

Societal

futures

Shipping

Renewable energy Toursim

WP

4 R

eg

ion

al S

ea

s A

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ica

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nd

Te

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ng

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, a

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lied

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ith

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ich

is o

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e

Sta

ke

ho

lde

rs i

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eg

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al se

as

WP6 Synthesis for

policymakers and

stakeholders

Economic and societal demands

Policymaker and

Stakeholder demands

Governance mechanisms,

constraints

Political Constraints and

Expedience

WP7 Internal and external dissemination and knowledge transfer

Synthesis of VECTORS for

Policy makers and

stakeholders

Understanding the risks of

Vectors of Change

Climate change

Acidification

Pollution

… etc, including interactions

Exploitation

Outbreaks

of indigenous

spp

Invasions

by exotics

Distributions

& productivity

Biodiversity

& functioning

Ecosystem

services

Economy Society

Human Behaviour

Ecosystem

modelling

Economic

futures

Societal

futures

Shipping

Renewable energy Toursim

Climate change

Acidification

Pollution

… etc, including interactions

Exploitation

Outbreaks of

species

Invasions

by exotics

Distributions

and

productivity

Biodiversity

& functioning Ecosystem

services Economy

Society

Human Behaviour

Ecosystem

modelling

Economic

futures Societal

futures

Shipping Renewable energy

Tourism

WP

4 R

eg

ion

al

Se

as

Ap

plic

ati

on

an

d T

es

tin

g V

ecto

rs d

eve

lop

ed,

ap

plie

d a

nd

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ste

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ith

in a

regio

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on

text w

hic

h is o

f u

se

to

the

sta

ke

ho

lders

in t

he

regio

na

l se

as

Economic and societal

demands

Policymaker and

Stakeholder demands

Governance mechanisms,

constraints

Political Constraints and

Expedience

WP7 Internal and external dissemination and knowledge transfer

Synthesis of VECTORS

for Policy makers and

stakeholders

Understanding the risks

of Vectors of Change

WP1 Pressures

and drivers of

change and their

interactions

WP2 Mechanisms

by which pressures

& their interactions

cause changes in

terms of:

WP3 Impacts

and interactive

effects of those

changes on:

WP5 Projections

of impacts of those

changes under

different interacting

scenarios

WP6 Synthesis

for policymakers

and stakeholders

Applying VECTORS outcomes

The EU needs this integrated

knowledge to inform

development and

implementation of forthcoming

strategies, policies and

regulations e.g.

• EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive

• IMO Convention on Ballast Water Management

• EU Maritime Policy

WP 1: Review of drivers of change

Driver • Climate change • Ocean acidification • Fisheries • Pollutant discharge • Maritime transport • Energy demands • New ballast technologies • Changes in Policy • Multiple interactions • Tourism

The European Marine Alien Species Database

http://www.corpi.ku.lt/databases/vectors/

Introduction event block (> 2900

records) • Recipient region • Donor region • Introduction date • Pathways/Vectors • Traits of recipient habitats • Species status, traits in recipient

habitat

Geography block • Ocean, Ocean region • LME, LME sub region • Country, Country region

Species block (> 1200 records) • Taxonomy • Native origin • Biological traits • Additional information

Biopollution assessment system

block

The structure consists of four main blocks:

Integrated with Biopollution assessment system

CITIZEN SCIENCE

DETECTING INCREASING TRENDS AND SPECIES-SPECIFIC FLUCTUATIONS

AUG 2009

AUG 2010

Alien species in the Baltic Sea: annual-scale dynamics in response to environmental variability (WP2)

Ojaveer et al. 2011

Abundance dynamics of planktonic alien invertebrates

over time: abrupt increase

Biomass dynamics of benthic alien invertebrates over time: stable or abrupt increase

METABOLIC SCOPE FOR GROWTH Comparison between Endemic and Invasive Alien Species

(P. Domenici CNR IAMC)

- Siganus sp vs. Sarpa salpa: In certain areas of the Southern Mediterranean, Siganids are outcompeting Sarpa salpa. They are similar to S. salpa in terms of habitat use, herbivory and gregarious behaviour. - In order to provide data for modelling future scenarios of the effect of global change, we are comparing how temperature affects their basal metabolic rate (SMR) and their aerobic metabolic scope (AMS), an index of fitness which is related to growth.

Sarpa salpa

Siganids

The relationship between SMR, AMS and temperature

Meta

bolic

Sco

pe

Rate

Temperature

AMR

SMR

AMS

Experimental work using swim tunnel respirometry Present distributions

S. luridus

S. rivulatus

Individual-based bioenergetic model

c

CLEARANCE

EXCRETIONS

consumo energia

Energy Acquisition

ASSIMILATION

RESPIRATION

ZOOPLANCTON

TEMPERATURE

GROWTH

REPRODUCTION

Scope for Growth > 0

Energy Consumption

Adults only!

Three stages:

• Ephyrae

• Immature medusae

• Sexually mature medusae

),(),,( wTECwzooTEASfG

GROWTH

SHRINKING

Scope for Growth < 0

Pelagia noctiluca

Habitat suitability model for medusae and/or polyps

Linking extreme values of environmental predictors to biological response variables

Bootstrapped time series of environmental predictors

Probability of BEE due to chance alone Deviation from chance: WHERE AND WHEN

Spatially extended predictions given past history of environmental conditions

PREDICTIVE APPROACHES

Statistics

Environmental bootstrap BEE - Biological Extreme Events

Modelling

Coupling bioenergetic models to environmental

envelopes

WP 3.1 Impacts of changes on ecosystem structure and functioning

1. Systematic reviews

collate and interpret existing data - rigorous protocols established and submitted for publication, literature searches underway for:

– Invasive ecosystem engineers

– Invasive primary producers

– Outbreaks of macro-alga

2. Biological Traits Analysis & modelling

– link changes in ecological community structure with changes in ecosystem functioning

3. Experimental tests

– characterise mechanistic links in case study regions

Indicators for marine ecosystem services (work in progress)

Ecosystem

Service

Quality and quantity of

service

Key ecological processes

that contribute to service

Social and economic

benefits derived from

service

Waste

treatment

and

assimilation

Absolute levels of waste Outbreaks of E.coli/hospital admissions Benthic biodiversity levels/ratios/no. of sensitive species. Toxicity levels within species Able to eat the shellfish present? Number of shellfish closures HAB outbreaks (but hard to link to anthropogenic outputs?)

Degradation rates, hydrodynamics, carbon storage, nutrient levels and/or cycling, production and biomass at different trophic levels

Clean status of beach and/or water quality, linked to tourism Waste removal and burial Water filtration Health costs avoided

Regulation of

water flows

Salinity/freshwater input Changing shoreline Direct measures of flow/currents/turbidity Seabed morphology Onshore and offshore indicators

Unclear as mostly hydrodynamic processes. Very localised processes.

Changes in hydrodynamics can affect fish populations via larval dispersal Boating displeasure due to jellyfish viscosity problems or Enteromorpha blooms.

Coastal

erosion

prevention

Beach profile (slope and width) – maintenance and improvement to provide protection How ‘nice’ the beach looks. Man made structures vs natural defence Presence of mitten crab

Extent of presence of seagrass/saltmarsh/oyster bed/biogenic reefs/ Health of seagrass/saltmarsh Accumulation of mollusc shells (not studied?) Bioturbation

Tourists enjoy the beach but don’t like the presence of leaf litter which accumulates and acts to prevent erosion (Observation from Nando Boero in Med). Natural protection for land/houses and reduces cost of coastal protection measures

Nursery

-Area “used” or identified as important nursery (1) [or species like Jelly Fish providing that service to some fish spp!] - # species using the area as nursery -Dependence of off-site (commercial) populations

-Habitat quality /suitability (eg availability of food, shelter, etc) -Ecofysiology -Reproductive volume

Dependence of off-site fisheries / catch% Dependence of livelihoods

Tourism and

recreation

Advertisement issued by travel agencies Water quality Blues flag beaches Recreational fishing Number of tourists companies Number of tourists per day Facilities on the beach

Presence/absence of particular species/habitats (Good) state of habitat Water quality

Revenues / income

Energy Energy generated (electricity) Overall contribution and contribution to peak load.

Physical processes associated with geo-diversity

Energy provided Employment created Contribution to GVA CO2 savings reflects linkages (not emitted from other energy sources)

Indicators and data for changes in ecosystem service Waste degradation

& assimilation Service Ecological process Benefits

How do we measure

it? (Units)

Total coliforms (quantity per ml of water)

Biodiversity levels/ratios/no. of sensitive species Degradation and mineralisation rates (bacteria metabolism, organic matter), Hydrodynamics (from modelling), Carbon storage, Nutrient levels and/or cycling, Production and biomass at different trophic levels (plankton productivity)

Hospital admissions (as long as accompanied by exposure information) Clean status of beach and/or water quality, linked to tourism (blue flag status against tourism. WTP and how much to pay and how far to travel to a clean beach Waste removal and burial. Costs of primary vs tertiary sewage treatment. Replacement cost analysis. How much does it cost to change the system to comply with EU directives vs paying infraction costs. Water filtration (turbidity). Tourism industry built on blue water (so no. of visitors to beach, CVM) Health costs avoided

What data are

available?

Readily available e.g. reporting under bathing waters directive

In MSFD initial assessments HELCOM fact sheets CEFAS/SEPA – point source information Biological Traits Analysis (BTA) databases. Indicator species lists (may vary from place to place)

Unsure (eg. Health protection agency statistics) EU Directory of specific diseases NEA for UK Linking to WP3.3 Tourism surveys of why people go to the Med??

What data are held

by Vectors partners? None

WP3.1 (Somerfield) and WP2.1 are doing BTA work MARBEF – North Sea biodiversity data Macroben – MarBEF benthic biodiversity database Christos (HCMR) has access and probably also Paul Somerfield (PML) Not all species lists have abundance information UK (CEFAS) & Netherlands (DELTARES) for plankton and nutrient data. Nutrient and chlorophyll data from ICES (Baltic & North Sea). HELCOM and OSPAR. Western Med has an integrated monitoring program. IBTS. GFCM collect fisheries stats for Med (Maynou at CSIC) .

None or not readily available at least. Google scholar/grey literature search for influence of turbidity e.g. EIAs and cost-benefit analysis surrounding land reclamation studies and its influence on tourism. Studies on tourism values but unclear whether this will relate to turbidity.

(work in progress)

NPZD type models Functional group or continuum

Species-based groups

Sub-model for forcing

Spatial model

Non-spatial model

Single species

Size spectra

End to end (Atlantis)

ERSEM

NPZD-ICIS Fish

Modelling Tools & Vectors of Change

IBM+ERSEM+DEB

Larval IBM

MSVPA Osmose

Fish Rent

(schematic adapted from Traverse et al. 2007)

Further Information:

www.marine-vectors.eu

Project Coordinator: Mel Austen

Project Manager: Jenny Lockett

Plymouth Marine Laboratory Email: jelo@pml.ac.uk

Tel: +44 (0)1752 633476