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VCD News presents….VCD News presents….
CONFLICT CONUNDRUMS:CONFLICT CONUNDRUMS:Spotlight on YEMENSpotlight on YEMEN
““Confronting the Myths”:Confronting the Myths”:
Your Views; Our AnalysisYour Views; Our Analysis
Key Historical DatesKey Historical Dates
The NorthThe North
The SouthThe South
1962 Revolution - Imamate overthrown
British Colony until 1967
Yemeni Arab Republic formed
People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen formed
Unification 1990
Civil War 1994
Areas of InstabilityAreas of InstabilityAl Houthi Rebellion (Zaydi Shi’ia)
Secessionist movement
Adapted from www.criticalthreats.org
A Problematic Profile:A Problematic Profile:
Government failing to provide basic Government failing to provide basic servicesservices
Milex in 2007 Milex in 2007 4.3% of GDP per 4.3% of GDP per capitacapita
Arms circulation Arms circulation
60 Million guns to 20 million 60 Million guns to 20 million peoplepeople
YOUR VIEWSYOUR VIEWSMYTH 1:MYTH 1:
““It’s just another religious war! The It’s just another religious war! The same old Sunni-Shiite divisions same old Sunni-Shiite divisions have resurfaced in Yemen this have resurfaced in Yemen this time, much like Iraq” time, much like Iraq”
(Mrs A. Theist, Bath)(Mrs A. Theist, Bath)
Sa’ada, Northern YemenSa’ada, Northern Yemen
Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth
No strong religious divide in Yemeni societyNo strong religious divide in Yemeni society
Religious identity utilised as political rhetoricReligious identity utilised as political rhetoric
- By the Houthis- By the Houthis
- By the Government (mainly)- By the Government (mainly)
The Sectarian issue is not a major causal factor in the
Northern conflict:
The main grievancesare political and economic
Developmental neglect of the areaDevelopmental neglect of the area
Political motivations are unclearPolitical motivations are unclear
Alleged regional proxy-war between Alleged regional proxy-war between Iran (Shiia) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni)Iran (Shiia) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni)
The potential for religious cleavages
to become salient This is NOT a ‘religious war’This is NOT a ‘religious war’
AdverseAdverse consequences consequences
- The sectarian divide as a ‘self-- The sectarian divide as a ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’? fulfilling prophecy’?
- Increasing the likelihood of - Increasing the likelihood of polarisation polarisation
MYTH 2:MYTH 2: “ “Tribalism is what is Tribalism is what is undermining the undermining the state! Establishing a state! Establishing a centralized form of centralized form of authority never authority never works when kinship works when kinship ties are valued over ties are valued over all other loyalties. all other loyalties. Tribes are nothing Tribes are nothing but traditional but traditional warriors and prevent warriors and prevent the state-building the state-building project”project”
(Ms Poly Tical-mess, (Ms Poly Tical-mess, Glasgow)Glasgow)
Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth
Topography & Outside Topography & Outside Interference:Interference:
The SouthThe South fertile land → semi-feudal structuresfertile land → semi-feudal structures 1939: British rule1939: British rule 1976: People’s Democratic Republic of 1976: People’s Democratic Republic of
Yemen Yemen
• • Tribalism is condemned as feudalismTribalism is condemned as feudalism
Topography & Outside Topography & Outside Interference:Interference:
The NorthThe North Mountainous, arid land → resource Mountainous, arid land → resource
pressure → war → tribalismpressure → war → tribalism No outside interference disrupted No outside interference disrupted
tribal networkstribal networks 1962: Yemen Arab Republic1962: Yemen Arab Republic
• • Tribal loyalties bought through Tribal loyalties bought through money/armsmoney/arms
Northern political realityNorthern political reality State/tribal relations are not State/tribal relations are not
antagonistic per se (eg. 1962)antagonistic per se (eg. 1962) Tribes are not inherently violent Tribes are not inherently violent
forms of organization (eg. 1994) forms of organization (eg. 1994)
Southern political realitySouthern political reality Protests & secessionist callsProtests & secessionist calls
Al Houthi
Rebellion
Adapted from www.criticalthreats.org
The al-Houthi rebellion as a The al-Houthi rebellion as a borderland conflictborderland conflict
Saa’da constitutes a ‘non-state space’ Saa’da constitutes a ‘non-state space’ The state attempts to establish territorial The state attempts to establish territorial
control control Presenting the conflict as ‘tribal’ conceals Presenting the conflict as ‘tribal’ conceals
more than it revealsmore than it reveals The ‘contractarian model’ of the state does The ‘contractarian model’ of the state does
not hold not hold Rather than seeing ‘tribes’ as the problem, Rather than seeing ‘tribes’ as the problem,
they should be considered part of the they should be considered part of the solution.solution.
MYTH 3:MYTH 3:
““There is conflict because the There is conflict because the country is poor: People are country is poor: People are angry because they do not have angry because they do not have their basic needs covered. their basic needs covered. (Ms S. S. Reformer, Scunthorpe)
Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth
Yemen’s povertyYemen’s povertyFood Security:Food Security: 7 million people are food insecure7 million people are food insecure 80% of food imported80% of food importedWater Scarcity :Water Scarcity : 80% population affected by water 80% population affected by water
shortagesshortages Qat 1/3 of agricultural land and ¼ of Qat 1/3 of agricultural land and ¼ of
ground waterground water
Demographic contextDemographic context Three times world Three times world
average demographic average demographic annual growthannual growth
Average age - 16 Average age - 16 yearsyears
Increasing rural Increasing rural urban migrationurban migration
35% Unemployment 35% Unemployment (estimate)(estimate)
Refugees from Horn Refugees from Horn of Africa of Africa additional pressure additional pressure
MYTH 4:MYTH 4:“It is all about the oil! – Yemen is suffering
from the resource curse that is the reason why there is large-scale violence. Paul Collier is right. They are just being greedy!
(Mr. A. Bundance-Curse, Nottingham)
Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth
How has Yemen fallen under the How has Yemen fallen under the resource curse?resource curse?
But is the violence been motivated by But is the violence been motivated by greed or are do they have grievances?greed or are do they have grievances?
The air of inevitability The air of inevitability
Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth
Declining oil reservesDeclining oil reserves 460,000 barrels per day in 2002 falling 460,000 barrels per day in 2002 falling
by 12% in 2007 to the current rate of by 12% in 2007 to the current rate of 300–350,000 barrels per day300–350,000 barrels per day
Dependence on oil economy Dependence on oil economy Yemen’s oil sector provides 90% of Yemen’s oil sector provides 90% of
export earnings and 75% of government export earnings and 75% of government revenue of which 35% of oil produced is revenue of which 35% of oil produced is consumed domesticallyconsumed domestically
How has Yemen fallen How has Yemen fallen under the resource curse?under the resource curse? President Saleh’s divide and rule President Saleh’s divide and rule
strategystrategy South secession movementSouth secession movement
Does the presence of oil Does the presence of oil reinforce Collier’s theory that reinforce Collier’s theory that
rebel groups are carrying out a rebel groups are carrying out a cost benefit analysis and cost benefit analysis and
resorting to violence?resorting to violence?
History of Conflict in YemenHistory of Conflict in Yemen Al-Houthi rebellion only began after Al-Houthi rebellion only began after
the assassination of their leaderthe assassination of their leader Fragile source of PowerFragile source of Power
MYTH 5:MYTH 5:
““Yemen is a failed state, that’s why Yemen is a failed state, that’s why it’s attracting Al Qaeda terrorists it’s attracting Al Qaeda terrorists and all those Islamic extremists!” and all those Islamic extremists!” (Mr D.D. Arneeded, Sandhurst)(Mr D.D. Arneeded, Sandhurst)
Confronting the MythConfronting the Myth
Do failed states breed terrorism?Do failed states breed terrorism?
Is Yemen a failed state?Is Yemen a failed state?
Should all violent acts in Yemen Should all violent acts in Yemen be seen as terrorism?be seen as terrorism?
Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
ROOT CAUSEROOT CAUSE: :
Internal discontent with Saleh’s regimeInternal discontent with Saleh’s regime
1). Exclusionary politics1). Exclusionary politics
2). 2). Economic & social neglect of Economic & social neglect of peripheral areasperipheral areas
3). Unpopular foreign policy3). Unpopular foreign policy
Destabilisation of religious & tribal Destabilisation of religious & tribal relationsrelations
Interrelated Secondary Interrelated Secondary factorsfactors
Widespread povertyWidespread poverty Population Growth & Refugee influxPopulation Growth & Refugee influx Depletion & uneven distribution of Depletion & uneven distribution of
resourcesresources Heavily armed population (traffic Heavily armed population (traffic
from Somalia)from Somalia) Pressure from International actors to Pressure from International actors to
‘fight terrorism’ ‘fight terrorism’
What will become of What will become of Yemen?Yemen?
Future prospects…Future prospects…
““The 1st rule of Yemeni The 1st rule of Yemeni politics is that in order to control a united politics is that in order to control a united Yemen, a leader must incorporate the Yemen, a leader must incorporate the northern tribes into his coalition” northern tribes into his coalition” (Welton)(Welton)
““Yemen is the tribe and the tribe is Yemen” Yemen is the tribe and the tribe is Yemen” (Manea)(Manea)
And finally…And finally…
Misconceptions can reproduce Misconceptions can reproduce harmful discourseharmful discourse
Thank you very much for listening and stay tuned to VCD News…
Policy RecommendationsPolicy Recommendations
Diversification of the economyDiversification of the economy Reconceptualise mechanisms of Reconceptualise mechanisms of
governance & tribal relationsgovernance & tribal relations Revive indigenous modes of conflict Revive indigenous modes of conflict
reconciliationreconciliation Negotiations with tribes, NOT Negotiations with tribes, NOT
repressionrepression Restructuring of International aid Restructuring of International aid
structuresstructures