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Regional analysis on the decadal
variation of water quality in three
contrasting coastal systems of Ishikawa
coast, Japan
Julius Ibukun Agboola, PhDPostdoctoral Fellow
United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies (UNU IAS), Japan
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Socio-Ecological Systems Variation and
Environmental Change Impact on a
Subarctic Coastal Zone on the Sea of
Japan: Trends and Drivers
An ongoing research study @ the UNU IAS
Operating Unit Ishikawa/ Kanazawa, Japan
:
Preamble..
Concept: Socio-Ecological Systems (MARINE)
Interaction between humans and the bio-physical subsystems
Humans
Cultural
Management
Economic
Socio-political
Marine
Physical
Chemical
Biological
Socio - Ecological The IPCC 4th AR identifies the
need to make social-ecological
systems more resilient by
building "adaptive capacity"
Inte
r-co
nn
ecte
d &
Inte
ractive
Satoumi has been defined as coastal areas with high productivity
and biodiversity enhanced through human management.
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Oligotrophic
Coastal
System
Changes
Understanding the effects of these changes on phytoplankton biomass and productivity, and the linkages of the controlling factors is paramount to understanding long-term changes in marine ecosystems and the impacts of human activities.
Environmental Gradients
Physical Chemical Biological
Time Space
Coastal systems
Preamble..
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Ishikawa’s Ocean Coastline
Coordinates: 36°34′N 136°39′E
Has a general NE-SW orientation
~581 km alongshore stretch
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Tsushima warm water current
4- Tsushima Warm Water
current from the south
8- Rieman(Liman) Cold
Water current from the north
Ric
h m
ari
ne f
ish
sp
ecie
s fr
om
co
ld
no
rth
an
d w
arm
so
uth
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Source: Wikimedia Common
Problems
Natural and Anthropogenic Factors
① Land-based sources of pollution
② Oil spills and coastal alterations
③ Land reclamation
④ Excessive groundwater extractions
⑤ Serious and rapid erosion
It is expected that with differences in land use and human impact
along the coast, coastal water quality change at this highly
contrasting coastal systems will differ on spatial and temporal scale.
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
GOAL and Objectives
Understanding coastal water quality trends and the
coupled human-environmental drivers: Towards
sustainable coasts.
① Document specific changes for appropriate management actions.
② Identify areas vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic forcing.
③ Improved knowledge on coastal ecosystem dynamics.
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Place-based research addressing socio-ecological systems
associated with specific seascape or coastal region
Ecological baselines: How has Ishikawa’s Ocean
coastline changed over the years?
Research Question and
MethodologyPreamble
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Data Sources and Analysis
Water Quality Monitoring Data: 1984 - 2009 ( Hydrogen ion concentration-pH; Dissolved Oxygen-DO; Chemical Oxygen Demand-
COD; Total Nitrogen – T-N; Total Phosphorus-T-P)
Environment Unit, Ishikawa Prefectural Office, Japan
Japan Meteorological Agency
Climatic Data: 1930 - 2010 (Rainfall and Temperature)
Ishikawa Prefecture Statistical Data
Socio-Economic Data: 1930 - 2010 (Population, Fish Catches, Management Units)
A.
Questionnaires, Interviews and Historical ReviewsB.
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
^^̂
^̂^̂^^
^^̂̂^^̂^^̂^
#####
# #"
"
"
"
"
"
# NNA
" NTA
^ KNA
Ishikawa Prefecture
0 20 4010Kilometers
±
Coastal Compartments: Characterization
Contrasting physiographic, topographic and
geomorphologic features….
Differences in land use and human impacts along
the coast
Enable better analyses of spatial and temporal
trends and drivers
Twenty three (23) designated stations sampled: @ 0-1 m depth
< 5 Km from Shore
Kanazawa Area-KNA Noto Area-NTA Nanao Area-NNA
Sandy beach shore Rocky/Cliff shore
Sandy /Rocky
enclosed shore
High ocean waves and tides
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Results- Climatic Variables
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Mean
an
nu
al
rain
fall
(m
m)
KNA
NTA
NNA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
181925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Mean
an
nu
al
tem
pera
ture
(˚C
)
KNA
NTA
NNA
Highly significant (P < 0.0001)
temporal and spatial variation
^^̂
^̂^̂^^
^^̂̂^^̂^^̂^
#####
# #"
"
"
"
"
"
Temperature increased by ~ 2.2 – 3.5 ˚C
between 1930 and 2010
Highly significant (P < 0.0001)
temporal and spatial variation
Northern Noto
50 years: 1.5 – 3.0 ˚C on Sea of Japan
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Ch
em
ica
l O
xyg
en
De
ma
nd
(C
OD
) m
g/L
Year
KNA
NTA
NNA
Water Quality Spatial and Temporal Trends
Decreased ~20% (KNA); ~12% (NNA)
Increased ~25% (NTA)
NNA
KNA
NTA
Urban migration to KNA
Human perturbation from tourism,
agricultural and fishing activities
(NTA).
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Hyd
rog
en
io
n c
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
(p
H)
Year
KNA
NTA
NNA
Water Quality Spatial and Temporal Trends
Temporally: ~ 0.23 units drop
in pH values in last 3 decades
Spatially: 0.13 – 0.20 units
along the coast
NNA
KNA
NTA
(r = - 0.502; P = 0.001; n = 191)
Profound implications for
physiological processes in
marine organisms
Oceanic calcifying organisms
pH
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Dis
so
lve
d O
xyg
en
(D
O)
mg
/L
Year
KNA
NTA
NNA
Water Quality Spatial and Temporal Trends
NNA
KNA
NTA
Across three decades
(r = 0.548; P = 0.001; n = 191)
Significant Increase
DO
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Water Quality Nutrients Relationship @KNA and NNA
NNA
KNA
NTA
y = 0.1078x + 0.0023R² = 0.0829
0.00 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.48
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
To
tal P
ho
sp
ha
te
Total Nitrogen
NP
y = 0.0468x + 0.0335R² = 0.249
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
0.24
0.28
0.32
0.36
0.40
0.44
0.48
To
tal P
ho
sp
ha
te
NP
KNA
NNA
N:P =16:1, optimal
algal growth ratio
(Redfield et al.
1963).
(mg
/L
)
Redfield Ratio line (N:P = 16:1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
An
nu
al
N/P
Rati
o
NNA
KNA
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Vulnerable coastal areas
KNA: where there was high COD and nutrients
(T-N and T-P) concentrations is the main
vulnerable area of the Ishikawa coast.
NNA
KNA
NTA
NTA: refuse abandonment on the coast by
tourist has been identified as one of the
drivers of change in the coastal water quality.
From the Water Quality Point of View
NNA : coastal compartment may be particularly
vulnerable to eutrophication due to often
restricted water exchange with the adjacent
ocean.Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Discussion
DO pH COD Year Area
DO 1
pH -0.086 1
COD 0.066 0.359** 1
Year 0.548** -0.502** -0.026 1
Area 0.107 0.012 -0.249** -0.016 1
Temp. T-N T-P Year Area
Temp. 1
T-N -0.172 1
T-P 0.055 0.467** 1
Year -0.057 -0.096 -0.024 1
Area 0.105 -0.832** -0.386 ** 0.017 1
Correlation Matrix: Water Quality Spatial and Temporal Pattern
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed)
NNA
KNA
NTA
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Trends and Drivers of Change
Anthropogenic Drivers
① Physical/Structural- reclaimed land, ports and harbor,
tripods and walls.
② Cultural- merging of towns and villages resulting in loss or proliferation
of local cultures, alienation of humans from sea, changing lifestyles
③ Ecological- biodiversity loss and water quality along the coastline
④ Socio-economic- Ports and Harbour for trade, fishing industries,
tourism, agriculture
⑤ Demographic- depopulation problem, decline in fishermen,
fisheries management bodies.
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Drivers of Change……..Natural Drivers
① Coastal Erosion/flooding
② Sea Level Rise
③ Climate Change- Temperature Change
④ Surge Storm
⑤ Ageing Population
⑥ Salt Water Intrusion- Rice Farmlands
NNA
KNA
NTA
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1978 1984 1993 1997
River mouth
Artifitial
Semi-natural
Natural
Coastline Change: Impacts and Threats
Salt Intrusion
Rice Farmland
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Water Quality/Pollution Trends- MOE
Policy Response
0
2
4
6
8
10KNA
NTA
NNA
JapanEQS
COD
DO
pH
NNA
KNA
NTA
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Nu
mb
er
of
co
nfi
rme
d c
as
es Total Oil Others (including red tides)
Rate is still low in inland seas - 74.5 % Source: Japan Coast Guard
Achievement of Environmental Quality Standards
Declined by ~ 82%
MOE, Satoumi Guidelines
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Policy ResponseNNA
KNA
NTA
Low High
Spatial Variation
Moderate
Tem
po
ral
Vari
ati
on
Lo
wM
od
era
teH
igh
DO
COD
pH
T-N
Pop.
Temp
T-P
Bio.
Mitigation
StrategiesNutrient
reduction
Coastal
zoning
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Deploying the SWOT AnalysisTo Assist in Identifying Strategic Direction for Coastal Management Practices
Strengths Environmental Monitoring Data
Rich Biodiversity Potentials
Available Environmental Rules
Presence of Skillful Environmental Experts
Weaknesses Increasing Human Impacts
Dominant/Strong “Bottom-Up” Approach
Declining Fisheries Production
Declining Management
Waning Coastal Cultural Practices
Opportunities Tourism Attraction Potentials
Possibility of Enhancing and reviewing
environmental regulations and supervision
University, Research, Training Centres and
International Cooperations
Space Technology for Efficient Monitoring
Threats Cheap Foreign Seafood
Persistent Coastal Erosion
Incremental Pollution due to Flood River
Climate Change
Alienation of Humans from the Sea
Inte
rnal
Ex
tern
al
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Community Involvement
NNA
KNA
NTA
Spirit of Volunteerism
In the wave of enormous
quantity of refuse on the
coast especially along
Shioya to Sogogi coast at
NTA, community
involvement in coastal
clean-up was launched
and has since been
sustained.
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Concluding Remarks….. NNA
KNA
NTA
Reuters News Service, March 28, 2001
"It is possible that the Sea of Japan is one of the first
expanses of water affected by global warming, if that
is the case, then we very much fear that eventually the
world's major oceans will also be affected,"
-Professor Yoon Jong-HwaResearch and Institute for Applied Mechanics (RIAM)
CREAMS project, Fukuoka.
Scientists, fishermen fear Sea of Japan slowly dying
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Recommendations
① Understanding the important issues and collaborating with
other disciplines will be essential …….in marine social-
ecological systems.
② Setting stricter water quality standards in collaboration with
industry, stakeholders groups and coastal community
resource users.
③ Continuous monitoring of coastal developments and activities
- targeted and effective adaptation strategy.
④ Ishikawa coastal planning/zoning to accommodate livelihood
and economic changes to changing biodiversity and fishing
regimes, sea-level rise and erosion.
.
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
Acknowledgement
① United Nations University-Institute of Advanced
Studies (UNU-IAS)
② Director, Interns and Staff @UNU-IAS Operating
Unit Ishikawa Kanazawa (UNU-IAS OUIK)
③ Ishikawa Prefectural Government
④ Environment Unit, Ishikawa Prefectural Office,
Japan
Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011
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Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,
Baltimore, USA
Wednesday, 31st August 2011