Valley Import Overview

Jeff BilloRegional Planning Group Meeting

July 22, 2014

Preliminary 1

• Valley Overview

• Future Transmission System Needs

• Discussion and Next Steps

Outline

Preliminary 2

Valley Overview - 2014

Preliminary 3

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22 33

44

55

66

77

# Plant Capacity (MW)1Frontera 5242North Edin 6783Duke 4634Silas Ray 1045Los Vientos 4006Redfish 2007Railroad DC Tie 300

17691769 600600 300300

Gas Wind DC-Tie

Valley InterfaceValley Interface

Valley Transmission - 2016

Preliminary 4

11

22 33

44

55

66

77

17691769 600600 300300

Gas Wind DC-Tie

# Plant Capacity (MW)1Frontera 5242North Edin 6783Duke 4634Silas Ray 1045Los Vientos 4006Redfish 2007Railroad DC Tie 300

• ERCOT Board endorsed Valley Import Project in September 2011– ERCOT Independent Review indicated that additional reliability

upgrades would be needed by 2020 to support import needs

• FERC Final Rule on TPL-001-4 effective December 23, 2013– Adds G-1+G-1 criterion to NERC planning standards (Category

P3 contingency)• No loss of load allowed• Corrective Action Plan for “raise the bar” requirements do not

have to be in place until 2020

• ERCOT annual stability analysis identified reliability criteria violations in the Valley

Background Information

Preliminary 5

Valley Load Forecast (2014 RTP)

Preliminary 6

• Study Case– 2016 Summer Peak (SSWG, March 2014)

• Base Case Condition– All Valley Gas Generation at Pmax– Lobo – North Edinburg 345 kV in service (with series capacitor)– North Edinburg – Loma Alta (Cross Valley) 345 kV in service– Valley Wind Output = 10% dispatch– Railroad DC-Tie no import/export

• Steady State PV Analysis

Valley Import Study

Preliminary 7

VSAT Results

Preliminary 8

Base Case Notes:(1)G-1includes entire combined cycle train (2)N-1 includes 345 kV transmission line(3)Dynamic analysis results (ongoing work) may show stability limits lower than in the above table

Outage ContingencyValley Load (MW) at Stability Limit Year Exceeded

N-1 N-1 2867 2016G-1 G-1 2947 2017N-1 G-1 3061 2019

• N-1+N-1 and G-1+G-1 are the significant contingencies for the Valley– Entire combined-cycle train is treated as G-1 in this assessment

(consistent with Planning Guide 4.1.1.1)

• ERCOT is working on dynamic stability analysis• ERCOT will work with area TSPs and RPG to evaluate

project alternatives to address the reliability need– Static and/or dynamic reactive devices– Ajo – Caballo 345 kV line (suggested in 2011 ERCOT

Independent Review)– San Miguel – Lobo – North Edinburg second circuit– Additional import path

• Railroad DC tie assumption

Discussion

Preliminary 9

Valley Potential Gen (by County), COD by 2016

Preliminary 10

11

22 33

44

55

66

77

17691769 600600 300300

200200

500500

268268

16011601

200200

399399

230230

200200 11981198 20002000

Gas Wind DC-Tie PG 6.9 Wind FIS Wind FIS Gas

# Plant Capacity (MW)1Frontera 5242North Edin 6783Duke 4634Silas Ray 1045Los Vientos 4006Redfish 2007Railroad DC Tie 300

Preliminary 11

Questions/ Comments?