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vulnerability & Adaptation Nov. 2003
Valentin Bartra - Peru 1
Vulnerability to Climate change - Priorizing Adaptation”
Policy Options in Peru and the Andean region
Valentin Bartra´Instituto Lex Terrae´, Lima, Perú
Milan, Italy Nov 2003
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•• Vulnerability to MonsoonVulnerability to Monsoon--like like flooding during the increased flooding during the increased El Niño / La Niña and other El Niño / La Niña and other nefarious climatic effects has nefarious climatic effects has become a painful reality. become a painful reality.
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• It has become a dictum to adapt or to perish.
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SOURCE : INDECI 2002
PNEUMONIA DEATHS AFFECTED HOUSINGTOTALLOSS
CROPSDESTROYED
HAS.
TOTAL 963 76 (*) 196,210 27,210 382 29,053 (**)
PRESIDENCIA DEL CONSEJO DE MINISTROS CENTRO DE OPERACIONES DE EMERGENCIA
INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE DEFENSA CIVIL COE - LIMA - PERÚ
UNUSUAL COLD SPELL AGO 2002
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• Last Niño in 1998, represented my country, Peru, a loss of aprox. $1,800 MM + valuable lives and infrastructure.
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SOURCE : INDECI 1998
Death AFFECTED HOUSINGTOTALLOSS
CROPSDESTROYED
HAS.
TOTAL 366 502,461 93,691 47,409 131,000
PRESIDENCIA DEL CONSEJO DE MINISTROS CENTRO DE OPERACIONES DE EMERGENCIA
INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE DEFENSA CIVIL COE - LIMA - PERÚ
EL NIÑO TOLL 1997-1998
BRIDGES
344
ROADSkM
944
vulnerability & Adaptation Nov. 2003
Valentin Bartra - Peru 14Fuente: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
CGCM (INC-CTL) Promedio para un Periodo de 61 - 81 Años
Precipitación (mm/dia) - ANUAL
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Precipitación (mm/dia) - ENERO
CGCM (INC-CTL) Promedio para un Periodo de 61 - 81 Años
vulnerability & Adaptation Nov. 2003
Valentin Bartra - Peru 16Fuente: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
CGCM (INC-CTL) Promedio para un Periodo de 61 - 81 Años
Precipitación (mm/dia) - JULIO
vulnerability & Adaptation Nov. 2003
Valentin Bartra - Peru 17Fuente: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
CGCM (INC-CTL) Promedio para un Periodo de 61 - 81 Años
Temperatura diaria maxima(°C)
Temperatura diaria mínima (°C)
ANUAL
vulnerability & Adaptation Nov. 2003
Valentin Bartra - Peru 18Fuente: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
(INC-CTL) Promedio para un Periodo de 61 - 81 Años
Temperatura diaria maxima(°C)
Temperatura diaria mínima (°C)
ENERO
vulnerability & Adaptation Nov. 2003
Valentin Bartra - Peru 19Fuente: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
CGCM (INC-CTL) Promedio para un Periodo de 61 - 81 Años
Temperatura diaria maxima(°C)
Temperatura diaria mínima (°C)
JULIO
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•Peru is responsible for only 0.4% of global GHG emissions,
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• neighbouring countries adding to 300 million people, emit an aggregate of 4.3%, yet we suffer the consequences of aggravated and intense climatic phenomena like El Niño / La Niña
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• Damages and losses due to severe climatic events are real. Destruction of Coastal areas, crops and fisheries, diseases in epidemic proportions add up to huge economic loss.
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Different views• IPCC- atmospheric science• Risk hazard community• Rural development• Social development
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Vulnerability• Tropical glacial studies since
1967• (corporación peruana del
Santa)
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Valentin Bartra - Peru 43Nevado del HuascaránHuaraz, Perú
Laguna de LlanganucoHuaraz, Perú
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• Instituto Geofísico del Perú igp runs a station for the last 80 years…
• Mantaro River Basin
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Vulnerabilidad
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-2
-1
0
1
2
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
0.25°C / decade
°CYears
-2
-1
0
1
2
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
-0.04°C / decade
°C
-2
-1
0
1
2
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
0.11°C / decade
°C
TEMPERATURE TENDENCY, HUANCAYO MOVING AVERAGES, 12 MONTH
Years
Years
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Adaptation in The Andes• Thousand of years of adptation• Small changes… altered crop seasons…• Local ingenuity• Development vision vs. Ancestral cultures• From shock and imposition to cooperation• At the end it gets us all. The poor and
isolated suffer more…
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participation• It is everyone´s problem …• All levels of Goverment• Institutions• Civil society
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Regional Actions• Adverse Climate change effects is a global
phenomena, no political borders limit itseffects.
• Adaptation measures can be more effective if designed and implementedregionally.
• Regional centers can leverage ML resources better.
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funding
• Special climate change fund• Least developed countries fund• Adaptation fund
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Market instruments
• Reverse perverse auction [rpa]!• Guarantees sustained
development?• Real and permanent GHG
reduccion?
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linkages
• Desertification• Melting tropical glaciars• Sustained development• Water ( 2003)
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What About Greenhouse Gases!
• The climate is changing, our planet is getting warmer… there is no other place to go…
• Extreme climate events affects us all. This is a good and solid ground for solidarity…
• We want to solve the global climate problem with benefits going to all…if not, it will not last!!
• Triple win: win- win –win.
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“Our lifestyle is not up for negotiation…” is not up to you to decide … Nature has the last word …
• Billions of eyes and ears, let the people be part of the compliance verification…
• Does the so-called precautionary principle offer an opportunity?
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Non-Annex 1 Guidelines
• Mandatory:– National GHG Inventory (IPCC guidelines)
• Optional:– National Circumstances– Vulnerability and adaptation assessment– Research and systematic Observation– Cross sectoral policies
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unfccc
• Art. 4.8• Art. 4.9
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Statutesthe power of the law…
• Constitutional mandate• International treaties• Compensation for
damages and loss.
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• Thank you!!
If you are interested in a copy of this presentation please leave your business card.
If your wish to contact me or need further information:
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Special Collaborators• INDECI• SENHAMI• CONAM• Dr. Pablo Lagos IGP• Dr. Benjamin Morales Arnao• Carlos Velazco