Vale Obtains Environmental License for Carajás Expansion_27Jun12_BBD

7/29/2019 Vale Obtains Environmental License for Carajs Expansion_27Jun12_BBD

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(BRL mn) 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E Key Figures 26-Jun-12

EPS (R$) 7.88 8.82 9.94 10.73 Local price 38.93

Net earnings 40,235 45,003 50,732 54,756 ADR 19.14

EBITDA 61,529 73,342 86,057 90,225 Price range - 52 weeks (BRL) 34.51-46.103

Shareholders' equity 150,962 171,213 194,042 218,683 Shares outstanding (mn) 5,102.90

ROE% 26.65% 26.28% 26.14% 25.04% 3-month ADTV (R$mn) 668.3

P/E 4.94 4.41 3.92 3.63 Market cap (R$mn) 198,656

EV/EBITDA 4.10 3.44 2.93 2.79 EV (R$mn) 252,162

P/BV 1.32 1.16 1.02 0.91 Net debt (R$mn) 36,545

Dividend yield 9.26% 12.46% 14.05% 15.16% Net debt/EBITDA (LTM) 0.69

COMPANYREPORT

ValeFLASH NOTE

BBI Equity Research

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Vale(VALE5, VALE US)Mining

Outperform

Target Price: R$57.00, US$31.70Upside: 46.4%, 65.6%

Raphael Biderman- 55 11 2178 [email protected] Glezer, CFA- 55 11 2178 [email protected]

Vale Obtains Environmental License for Carajs Expansion

Vale has obtained a preliminary environmental license for the Carajs expansion.The market had expected Vale to face various challenges to secure this license,and therefore this news can be seen as a victory. However, we will still closelymonitor the developments surrounding this project to observe whether Vale willexperience any future setbacks on the licensing front.

Carajs' S11D, which is Vale's largest expansion project, envisages exploring thebiggest iron ore body of Carajs and this is the main reason for the infamous sizeof the iron ore complex. The Carajs project started several decades ago with thesecond-largest deposit in the North Range in Carajs. As the North Range is now

reaching its expansion limit, both geologically as well as logistically, Vale has beenforced to begin developing the South Range, where the S11D deposit is located.Therefore, this project is essential for the future growth of Carajs and Vale.

The Carajs S11D expansion will require a sizable investment of US$8bn in themine development, plus US$11bn related to logistics. The total capex is estimated atUS$19bn, elevating the capex per ton of the industry to a new record of US$211/toncompared to the previous record of US$180/ton for BHP's expansion. This will be a keyfactor for LT iron ore prices and thus implies that prices should remain high. It alsomeans that we should assume a high level for the Value-in-Use (VIU) in the LT as S11Dis, in our view, THE new global frontier of high-grade iron ore.

Another important aspect is that when the S11D project was initially announcedmany years ago, the original expectation was for a capex of US$12bn. But, during

Vale Day in New York last year, the company announced an increase of thisamount to US$19bn. Nonetheless, this new capex level has still not been included inVale's official capex plan as it still needs to be approved by the board. Another importantconsideration is that if setbacks in the Carajs project occur, LT iron ore prices are likelyto rise even more, and especially the VIU.

The Carajs Railway (EFC) is a single track railway. For some years, in order toincrease the railway's capacity, Vale has been building a passing siding in whichtrains can stop when a train is coming in the opposite direction. However, this canonly improve the capacity to a target of 150mn tons, from 50mn tons in the 1990s.As the S11D project is expected to require an expansion to 200mn tons, a paralleltrack is expected to be built, which is likely to boost the cost of the project. Wealso should not forget that the Carajs railway has 890km of track that passes throughvery difficult terrain such the Amazon jungle, or across high mountain chains and overwide rivers.

( continued on the next page )

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Ibovespa Vale PNA


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COMPANY REPORTBBI Equity Research Wednesday, June 27, 2012

At first glance, this project might seem to be unattractive given its high capex and

the dubious outlook for the demand of iron ore, given the crisis in Europe and

China's deceleration. Indeed, there are concrete signs that our long-held warning

of a deceleration in China is occurring. According to Vale, the volume of iron ore

sales in 2Q12 should recover only modestly in relation to the very weak 1Q12.

Although Vale says that this is due to seasonal factors, having spoken to other

players in the industry we now believe that the real reason is a deceleration in

Chinese demand. Indeed, Vale confirmed that the company has resumed "Tender

Shipping." Vale only applies this practice during weak market conditions such as in the

wake of the Lehman crisis. Tender Shipping is when Vale sends ships to China without

having a defined customer, and the company's sales team then need to sell and

negotiate the cargo's conditions while the ship is en routeto China.

On the other hand, the Carajs expansion is strategic and we believe it will be

pursued under almost any circumstance. Nevertheless, we believe the pay back

will take quite a long time to be concluded. However, we see this project as a

necessary burden for Vale, and this should eventually reap rewards in the LT as large-

scale, high-grade iron ore deposits in production will no longer be available.

Moreover, the project is made even more strategically important, because not only

is the Carajs North range reaching its limit, but also the mines in Minas Gerais

state are facing a considerable decrease in the quality of ore. It is important to note

that Carajs S11D is therefore the new frontier of high-grade iron ore for Vale and,

possibly, even for the global iron ore industry. Other alternatives for high-grade iron

ore projects worldwide are in regions that are often highly complex and unviable for

political reasons (West Africa) or logistics reasons (Corumb-Brazil).

Carajs is an interesting case in its essence. It has strategic implications, but

without an immediate pay-back. We believe that this is a cost that would need to be

incurred anyway, and Vale would still be undervalued accounting for such costsrelated to the expansion. The high capex of S11D is not a reason for us to change our

view that the stock is undervalued, as its multiples are considerably lower than the

historical average.

At the same time, we should warn that the risks related to Vales investment thesis

continue to be the same: China's deceleration and Valepar. Indeed, our call on

Chinas hard landing, which was "contrarian" several years ago, is now becoming

more of a mainstream concern. And, Vale's guidance for 2Q12 sales indicates that

this concern could actually now be becoming real. In addition, news from China is

also showing a sharp decline in some of the most important economic statistics such as

electricity consumption (which rose just 1% in April, vs. 7% the year before), the level ofloan growth, and land auctions by sub-national governments.


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Vale Obtains Environmental License for Carajás Expansion_27Jun12_BBD