V. RyabininPolar Thorpex Workshop, Oslo, 6-8 October 2010

Polar Research within the World Climate Research Programme

(Vladimir Ryabinin, Joint Planning Staff for WCRP)

Objectives:♦ To determine the predictability of climate♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

22 April 1866

Courtesy IABP 1553-1977

Launch of ICESat

Arctic Climate System Study 1994–2003

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

WGNE

WGCM

WGSIP

WOAPTFRCD

Seasonal

Decadal

ACC

AC&C

Monsoons

Extremes

SLR

IPY

Regional

JSC

JPS

(CAS/WCRP)

with WGOM

D

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Current climate prediction experiments

Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX

(Courtesy TFRCD)

Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP

Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment 5 – CMIP5

(Courtesy WGCM)

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Stratosphere and Polar Climate

• Effects of stratospheric ozone hole and expected ozone layer recovery (CCMVal + WMO/UNEP Assessment 2010, also for AR5)

• Sudden stratospheric warmings and coolings

•Predictability of the polar vortex, DYNVAR, gravity wave initiative

• Polar Observations (e.g. Vorcore)

• Polar Data (e.g. SPARC-IPY)

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

CEOP/CliC Cold Regions Study

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Interactions between the Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea Ice and Snow-pack in Polar regions

Determine the importance of OASIS chemical, physical and biological exchange processes on tropospheric chemistry, the cryosphere, and the marine environment, and their feedback mechanisms in the context of a changing climate.

AICI: Air Ice Chemical Interactions (IGAC, SOLAS, CliC)

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

CliC SSG-6, Valdivia, Chile, 6-9.02. 2010

Ice sheets and SLR

Marine Cryosphere

Terrestrial Cryosphere

Global Prediction of Cryosphere

Cryospheric inputs to the Arctic and Southern Ocean Freshwater Budgets

Ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics and impacts on SLR

Regional Climate Modelling

Initiativesthat integrate CliC

themes Carbon and Permafrost

Changes and feedbacks in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice ☼ Lead theme

☼

☼

☼

☼

☼

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008 Major CliC Initiatives

Koni Steffen

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008Observed Rate of Loss Faster Than GCM Predicted

Stroeve et al., 2007 Bitz., in press

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

SEARCH Sea-Ice Outlook

19 Sep, NSIDC

12 Sep, NSIDC

CliC Sea-Ice Activities

WCRP White Paper “Rapid Loss Sea-Ice in the Arctic” - ARctic HIndcast, Modelling and PrEdiction StuDiES (ARCHIMEDES)- CMIP5 Diagnostic Proejct- Sea-Ice Algorithms Intercomparison – workshop soon

CliC – IARC Workshop on Arctic Ice Loss (Fairbanks, USA, 6-8 October 2010)

Arctic Sea-Ice Working Group

Antarctic Sea-Ice Processes and Climate (ASPeCt)(with SCAR)

Southern Ocean Physical Oceanography and Cryosphere Linkages (SOPHOCLES)

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008 Major CliC Initiatives

Total C Mass in the Atmosphere ~ 800 Gt

Carbon and Permafrost = CAPER

(C. Le Queré et al., 2009)

(C. Tarnocai et al., 2008)

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

3950

582

713

1075

2986

1670

?

scaled from Carmack

rapid retreat of glaciers: Alaska ~1/2 of global loss

rapid retreat of glaciers: Alaska ~1/2 of global loss

Eurasian discharge increased at ~2 km3/yr, 1936-99

Arctic precipitation +8% over last 100 yr

1979 2002

melt area on Greenland ice sheet increased ~16%, 1979-2002

CHANGES IN THE FRESHWATER BUDGET COMPONENTS

e.g., from ACIA: Walsh et al., 2005

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Arctic System Reanalysis

Regional Reanalysis of the Arctic Atmosphere/Ocean/Land System

High Resolution in Time (3 hours) and Space (15 km, 71 levels) – will consider 10 km resolution

• Time – 2000 to 2010

• Satellite Radiance Assimilation

• Supported by NSF as an IPY Project

Courtesy: Dave Bromwich

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008 SWIPAChapters under national review

Predictions using WCRP CMIP3

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

The ReportPrefaceForewordExecutive Summary1. The Cryosphere Theme2. Applications of Cryospheric Data3. Terrestrial Snow4. Sea Ice5. Lake and River Ice6. Ice Sheets7. Glaciers and Ice Caps8. Surface Temperature and Albedo9. Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground10. Solid Precipitation11. An Integrated and Coordinated Observing System12. ImplementationApp. A. ReferencesApp. B. Observational Capabilities and Requirements App. C. Satellite Missions in Support of the ThemeApp. D. AcronymsApp. E. Contributors

Contributions from ~80 people in 17 countries throughout the development phase. http://igos-cryosphere.org

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Climate at forefront thru > 20 WCRP-Affiliated Projects

International Polar Year

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008 Main observing initiatives contributing

to the creation of an IPY Legacy:

• Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON),• Integrated Arctic Ocean Observing System (iAOOS),

and Arctic-HYCOS as parts of SAON,• Pan-Antarctic Observing System (PAntOS), • Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) as part of

PAntOS, • The WMO Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW),• Polar Satellite Constellation (PSC),• Polar Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF)

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

• Scoping document accepted by WMO Executive Council in June 2009.

• The Council requested the preparation of a GCW implementation strategy for consideration by the WMO Congress in 2011.

Global Cryosphere Watch-a WMO Initiative

•A legacy of WCRP/CliC in the area of observations•A contribution to GCOS & GEOSS

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Principal Goal:

To assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system.

WCRP’s Climate and Cryosphere ProjectCo-sponsored by SCAR and IASC

Enabling prediction of the Arctic climate system;

Enabling prediction of the Antarctic climate system;

Enabling prediction of terrestrial cryosphere; and

Enabling improved assessment of the past, current and future sea-level variability and change.

New

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Topics :Atmospheric effects of sea-ice changes and vice versaIce sheets and ice shelves effects on ocean circulation, other cryospheric effectsMajor processes in and predictability of the polar oceansLand surface effects such as ones of snow cover, soil moisture, etc.Northern river run-off effects and freshwater balanceSudden stratospheric warmingsEffects of atmospheric constituents, e.g. O3, GHG, aerosols, BC, CH4Volcanic effectsSolar cycle effectsQBO effectsENSO effects and teleconnections with lower latitudesLarge-scale modes of climate variability (AMO, PDO, AO/NAO, SAM) and long-living anomalies in the ocean heat content and its transport Dynamic effects – planetary and gravity waves, polar night jet, etc.

Then: • Road Map to Arctic Climate Prediction• Gap analysis: Pacific, Southern Ocean, surface fluxes?• Technological and programmatic solutions; e.g. implementing a seamless system, cooperation, e.g. with TAWEPI; experience, e.g. one of NCEP

“Seasonal to Multi-decadal Predictability of Polar Climate”Dates: 25-29 October 2010

Venue: Bergen

Workshop

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008 Ocean ReAnalyses & OSs

Arctic Ocean

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Rapid change is affecting traditional way of life, health and safety; threatens land-based, freshwater and marine species

CLIPS in Polar Regions

There is a need for consistent, useful, operational climate information, products and services for high latitudes:

Industry including land and marine transportation, mining, oil and gas exploration and energy production must consider climate variability and change in planning and operations

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

International Polar Decade (?)

Developments in • studies of real predictability (ocean reanalysis),• observations of polar regions,• polar and cryospheric reanalyses,• modelling and data assimilation, and• etc., could be integrated in an IPD and result in significant

progress in polar climate prediction at a variety of scales.

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

IPY20072008

Cooperation