T879-20K – TMA02 Christoph Jaschek L4562898

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Analysis of the violent conflict in Colombia

Part 1: Introducing the Colombian Conflict

In 2020 I did a three-month internship at the Latin American regional office of terre des

hommes in Bogotá, Colombia. Terre des hommes is a German nongovernmental organization

working in the international development sector and promoting the rights of children and

youth. During my internship, I got in contact with local peace advocates and Human Rights

defenders. Because of this personal experience, I chose to conduct the conflict analysis on the

violent conflict of Colombia.

This essay traces the conflict back to its root causes which were unequal access to land as well

as poverty and political exclusion (Zapata, 2019). In the 1960s, this situation culminated in the

creation of rebel movements, in Spanish guerillas, like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of

Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN), among others. Furthermore, their

violent support for poor peasants caused the establishment of paramilitary groups that fought

for the interests of the political elite and wealthy landlords.

During the last decades, the clash between paramilitary, guerillas and national security forces

lead to severe violations of Human Rights, millions of internally displaced people and

thousands of dead fighters and civilians. Even if the FARC and the administration of then-

president Juan Manuel Santos signed a peace agreement in 2016, the situation remains

challenging and complex. Developments in recent years and the critical position of incumbent

president Iván Duque signify a serious threat for the fragile peace in Colombia.

To conduct a conflict analysis - i.e., to investigate interdependencies and dynamics between

the different parties involved in this complex conflict - can highlight important steps and

actions to be taken in order to “sustain this peace in the post-conflict environment, as well as

provide truth and justice for all those harmed by the violence” (Zapata, 2019).

rebels movementsLoyal to

government

Colombia Rebels movementsguerillas

Actors

Part 2: The Conflict Analysis

Urban population(mainly citizens of Bogotá)

interestto continue urban lifestyle without spendingto much state resources in countryside

interaction

not directly affected by theconsequences of the violent conflict

only indirectly affected e.g. through theconflict's impact on the national economy

not much interaction with rural communities

powerin a national referendum the urban population wasable to reject the first version of the peace agreement

incentives

as long as the conflict does not affect theurban life in a more severe way, there is noincentive to find a peaceful solution

TNC(Transnational Coporations)

interestexploit natural resources in Colombia

agrobusiness, coal and gold, among others

interactionsupported by national government and paramilitary

in opposition of rural communities and rebel movements

power overall economic power to influence actors

incentives

fighting means higher risks and higher commodity prices

victory of rebel movements would result in loosingaccess to Colombian natural resources

ELN(National Liberation Army)

interestestablish a Christian and communist regime

fight against poverty, corruption and political exclusion

interactioncontinous fighting against miliary and paramilitary

no active participation in peace negotiations

power

financing via kidnapping and the extortion of money from oil companies

participation in the production and distribution of illegal drugs

very present in rural Colombia

incentives no interest in end of conflict to not face democratical elections

USA(hegemonial power)

interest

during Cold War: prevent communismfrom spreading in the Americas

during 21st century: To fight the war on drugs

interaction

support conservative forces in the country

high influence in UN Security Council

support UN Verification Mission in Colombia

power military support for national government

incentivesstabilize the situation and establish orderaccording to the Colombian government

United Nations

interest international community in favour of peace and development

interactionparticipation in peace dialogues

since 2017: United Nations Verification Mission in Colombia

powerthere is no peacekeeping operation in Colombia

use of international political power to promote peace

incentives provide support to the peace process

FARC(Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia)

interestfight against imperialism, capitalism and the establishment of large-scale pivately owned farms

fight for rights of rural peasants and their legal access to land

interactiondecades of fighting against military and paramilitary

successful peace negotiations with president Santos from 2012 to 2016

power

participation in the production and distribution of illegal drugs

source of funds: ransom, illegal mining, taxation of various forms of economic activies

very present in rural Colombia

incentives commited to transform into a legitimate political party and enter the democratic process

Rural population(mainly indigenous and Afro-Colombian

communities)

interestcriminal activities as magnet and escape for rural youth

access to economic development and education

interactionno interaction with political elites

suffer massive violations against Human Rights

powerhardly any political or economic influence in decision making

millions were internally displaced

incentives promote peace and end violent conflict

Paramilitary

interest fight for interests of clients

interactionmilitas sponsored by TNC, politicians and elite landowners

co-operation with Colombian Military

powerparticipation in the production and distribution of illegal drugs

responsible for majority of Human Rights violations

incentivesescalate the war to sustain economic gains

enter territories that were left by FARC after signing peace agreement

Military Forces of Colombia

interestre-establish peace and stability

realize state monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force

interactioncooperation with paramilitary

military support by USA

power high funding and well equipped

incentivesfight for rights of political elite and landlords

support 2016 peace deal

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Structures

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+-+civil society pomotes peace

national as well as regionalmovements promote peace

social movements played an importantrole during peace negotiations that ledto final agreement

disarmament

in the first decade of the 21 centuryseveral paramilitary groups were disarmed

as part of the peace agreement of 2016, FARCfighters handed over their guns to the UN

high military budget

during the last 50 years, militaryexpenditure has grown constantly

more than 3% of GDP isdedicated for military budget

escalating war

in the beginning, the conflict was alow-level conflict without great impact onnational economy or politcal stability

in the further course, periods ofviolent ecalation alternated with morepeaceful moments

violations of human rights

all parties fighting in Colombia areresponsible of severe violations ofHuman Rights

80% of the victims of aprox. 2.000massacres committed between 1980and 2012 were civilians

weak state presencein rural areas

the Colombian state is not able to provide basicstate services such as infrastructure, electricity,security or education in many rural areas

local populations express mistrust against anygovernment activity; politicans not only have toincrease state presence but also win people's'minds and hearts'

political instability

fightings, trauma and personal relationsbetween politicans, industry owners and militarypersonal decease faith in political system

president Duque wants to renegotiate largeparts of the 2016 peace agreement andparts of the FARC are remobilising again

structural violence

indirect violence is built into the structure andshows up as unequal power and consequentlyas unequal life chances (Galtung 1969)

indigenous and Afro-Colombian communitiesare systemically excluded from society

power centeredin Bogotá

horizontal inequality: unevendistribution between societal groups onthe basis of ethnic and regional factors

Bogotá is the political and economic centre ofthe country, but from many rural communitiesit takes several days to travel to the capital

recruitment byparamilitary and guerilla

either direct recruitment as fighters orindirect recruitment e.g. for thecultivation of illicit crops

paramilitary and guerilla groups offera sense of belonging and constanteconomic income to local population

lack of education andemployment opportunities

only 50% of Colombian population had atleast some secondary education

unemployment rate of aprox. 10%fuels large informal sector

US military support

USA fought against the spread ofcommunism in the Americas

USA fights against drug productionand trafficking

unequal access to assets

landlords enjoy priviledged access to land

peasants and indigenous communitiesstruggle to remain landowners

economic crisis

most of the time, Colombia runs a trade deficit

economy is based on mineral extraction and istherefore facing a stagnation because of thepandemic and low global oil prices

state deficit

government debt is equivalent to 48.4% of the country's GDP, all time high

in 19 of the last 20 years, governmentrecorded a budget deficit

corruption / rent seeking

Colombia ranks 96 out of 180 in TransparencyInternational's 2019 Corruption Index

culture of rent seeking dominates thinking ofgovernment, police and private corporations

wealth of natural resources

resources like coal and gold are extracted byinternational corporations

local communities do not profit fromextraction but have to face theenvironmental, social and economic damages

lack of democracyand judicialaccountability

current president Iván Duque is accused of electoral fraud

amnesties granted to fighters of paramilitary andguerilla in the frame of transitional justice preventaccountability for violations of Human Rights

key

political

economic

law, order and justice

war, violenceexogenous

geography

cultural

social

drug productionand smuggling

revenue from drug selling has becomean important way of funding forparamilitary and guerilla

connection between internationaldrug cartels and local production

Structures V1.1.mmap - 26.01.2021 - Christoph Jaschek

Key

internationalnationallocal / regional

Dynamics

different actors accuse eachother of not realizing importantaspects of the peace deals

UN and NGO community promotedpeace agreements all the time

guerillas supported byCuba and Venezuela

military and paramilitarysupported by USA

in total, ten peace treaties weresigned but, until now, none resultedin a stable and long-term peace

aim to find a military solutionfor the conflict alternated withincentives to peace negotiations

rural population is in strongsupport of peace deals as theysuffer most under the daily violence

urban population is notdirectly affected by conflictand remain skeptical

Break up of peaceagreements

international drugcartels distribute anddeliver drugs worldwide

war against drugs by USA

military intervention to preventproduction of drugs fail

Colombian state failes toaddress social, politicaland economic causes fordrug production

economic incentives for poorpeasants to cultivate plantsthat fuel drug production

economic incentives forparamilitary and guerillas tobecome active in smuggling

DrugsAssassinations ofHuman RightsDefenders

increase pressure onnational actors to protectHuman Rights activists

preoccupied and helplessinternational community

state tries to implementprograms to protectHuman Rights Defenders

but state is not able toaddress systemic rootcauses of the problem

helplessness and fear

rural population hassense of being left alone

fighting against an invisible force

State services byGuerilla

2016 peace agreement

rural population hassense of being left alone

guerilla and paramilitary fill up powervacuum and offer state services such asinfrastructure, security and economicsupport for local peasants

mistrust against state officialsbecause of corruption

central national governmentis incapable to deliverfundamental state services inrural areas of Colombia

enormous inequalities betweendifferent regions in terms of statepresents, education opportunitiesand health care provision

international support for building state capacities international support for good governance

observer states during peace talks:Chile and Venezuela

UN and ICRC promoted logistical support

direct support by Norway and Cuba

transitional justice mechanismsare implemented in order torealize peace agreement

national government andrepresentatives of the FARCsign a historic peace treaty

but several rebel movements andparamilitary groups still remain active

demobilising FARC causes apower vacuum that is filledby paramilitary groups

rural population is longingfor peace agreement

Dynamics V1.2.mmap - 26.01.2021 - Christoph Jaschek

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Part 3: Key findings

In this part, I will focus on three crucial topics, which are (1) the most important root cause,

(2) the FARC as protector of rural communities and (3) how the government not only has to

improve state services but also must rebuild the trust of local population into the state as

protector and provider of essential services like infrastructure, education and health services.

1. In the second edition of his book Systems of Violence Richani (2013) mentions the

“tremendous land and wealth inequities” as one of the fundamental origins of the

Colombian conflict. The prioritization of wealthy landlords and agroindustry over

indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities caused political, economic and social

exclusion. In the module material Mohan (2020) named this phenomenon horizontal

inequality which is a form of structural violence as described by Galtung (1969). This

form of violence is built into the structure of the system and manifests itself through

unequal opportunities in life and systemic discrimination. The last decades added illicit

crops, narcotrafficking and the violent struggle to exploit natural resources to the

conflict which made it even more complex and more difficult to find adequate

measures to establish peace.

2. In this context local communities suffer from a systemic absence of state institutions.

The only state officials they encounter from time to time are soldiers trying to maintain

safety without addressing the root causes mentioned above. In this power vacuum

steps the guerrilla and acts as a protector. They secure “protection to peasants on land

holdings and guarantee minimum prices for both coca and agricultural products” (Le

Billon, 2014). For example, FARC levied taxes on beer consumption and redistributed

tax revenue to build a local school and offer education to local communities (Richani,

2013). It is inappropriate to compare these actions taken by the guerilla with a welfare

state. Nevertheless, they are able to offer services to local communities which the

Colombian state hasn’t done over many decades.

3. After the ratification of the peace treaty in 2016 the tasks for the Colombian

government are tremendous. The state has to build up the capacities to secure

minimal living standards in every region of its territory and must secure that all

Colombian benefit from education, health care facilities and boosted local economies.

However, only increasing the scope of state services will not be enough. An even

greater challenge for the state is to overcome the “lack of trust in the government”

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(Zapata, 2019) which is a result of previous failures, broken promises and widespread

corruption. To rebuilt trust between the state and its citizens means to win the

people’s hearts and minds. The state has to understand, that instead of soldiers it

needs teachers, medical doctors, engineers, social workers, passionate civil servants

and honest judges to rebuild trust. However, in the last thirty years, the Colombian

government has signed ten peace agreements. Until now, peace remained elusive and

incomplete (Zapata, 2019) mainly because of the complexity of the conflict which

includes many different actors, interdependent structures and constantly changing

dynamics.

By simply signing another peace treaty, it is impossible to put all these aspects in order, to

overcome destroyed relationships, to support over five million internally displaced people and

to guarantee holding Human Rights violators for their actions to account. The international

community, government and national parliament as well as regional movements have to work

together to find a new future for their land and to find peaceful ways to mediate between

conflict parties. In the best-case scenario, it will last decades to unfold this process and to

establish the right conditions for long-lasting peace in Colombia.

Part 4: Personal Reflection

Already during the introduction of the conflict analysis framework, I became aware of several

shortcomings regarding the visualization of the results in form of a table. From my point of

view, tables do not offer a good overview over the different sections of the framework.

Furthermore, tables do not permit any cross connections between different table entries to

show interdependencies, e.g., in the actor section there is no possibility to show how these

actors depend on each other. While working on the conflict analysis I focused not only on the

content (What?) but also on different possibilities to visualize the content in other forms

(How?).

This process has helped me to bring order to my mental model of the Colombian conflict. Since

my internship in Bogotá, I spent many hours reading and thinking about this situation. I tried

to make sense to the complex interdependencies which is necessary to understand the peace

agreement of 2016. Despite my efforts, my sense making remained messy and chaotic. There

were to many interests, actors and perspectives to integrate in a holistic narrative of the

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conflict. However, in the last weeks, the application of the conflict analysis framework has

helped me to bring order into my confusing mental model of the conflict. Arranging all the

different dimensions and views according to actors, structures and dynamics supported me to

appreciate the complexity of the conflict and to decrease the level of chaos.

With the conflict analysis as background, I am now able to understand the peculiarities of the

current post-conflict situation as well as the huge challenges that the peace treaty is facing. If

it only addresses some consequences and symptoms, it will fail, too. In order to establish long-

term peace in Colombia, it has to approach the systemic root causes of the violence which

were outlined in this analysis.

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References

Galtung, J. (1969) Violence, Peace and Peace Research, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 6, no.

3, pp. 167/91.

Le Billon, P. (2014) Wars of Plunder: Conflicts, Profits and the Politics of Resources, New

York, Oxford University Press.

LeResche, D. (2005) The Significance of Procedural Justice for Peace Making Processes

[Online]. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/sib/egm/paper/Diane%20-

LeResche.pdf (Accessed April 2015).

Mohan, G. et.al. (2020) ‚The Political Economy of Conflict’, T879 Week 10 Chapter 4: The

Political Economy of Conflict [online]. Available at https://learn2.open.ac.uk/mod/-

oucontent/view.php?id=1614656 (Accessed 07 January 2021).

Richani, N (2013) Systems of Violence, Second Edition: The Political Economy of War and

Peace in Colombia, State University of New York Press, Albany. Available from: ProQuest

Ebook Central. (7 January 2021).

Zapata, S. V. (2019) James Meernik, Jacqueline H. R. DeMeritt y Mauricio Uribe-López (eds.).

As War Ends. What Colombia Can Tell Us About the Sustainability of Peace and Transitional

Justice. New York: Cambridge University Press.