UX-Research 2b Cognitive-Biases - HS Augsburg...UX Research Cognitive Biases KP Ludwig John operates automatically, quickly and with little or no effortReference: Kahnemann, Thinking

UX ResearchCognitive Biases

KP Ludwig John

UX Researchcognitive biases


KP Ludwig John

Estimate quickly

Task

1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8

for Group 1Group 2 turn around, please


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Estimate quickly

Task

What’s your guess?Write it down

Group 1


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Two modesof thinking


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operates automatically, quickly and with little or no effort

System 2 (slow thinking)

Reference: Kahnemann, Thinking fast and slow, Penguin books 2011, p. 20f

System 1 (fast thinking)

To gather and process information our mind switches between two different modes of operation.

Daniel Kahneman (Psychologist) describes these modes in his book Thinking fast and slow and calls themfast thinking and slow thinking or simply:

Two Systems

allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations.

Also in charge for monitoring and (self) control


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Two Systems Examples

Reference: Daniel Kahnemann - Interview with Guardian 22. Nov. 2011https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHmXPyX7czU


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operates automatically, quickly and with little or no effort


Two Systems

Examples• detect that one object is more distant than another • Orient the source of a sudden sound • Answer to 2+2 = ? • Detect hostility in a voice • Understand simple sentences

System 1 (fast, automatic)

Several mental actions … are completely involuntary. For instance: You can’t refrain from understanding simple sentences in your own language.


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allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations.

Also in charge for monitoring and (self) control

Reference: Kahnemann, Thinking fast and slow, Penguin books 2011, p. 22

System 2 (slow, controlled)

Two Systems

Examples• Count the occurrences of the letter „a“ in this text • Tell someone your phone number • Fill out a tax form • Compare two washing machines for overall value • Check the validity of a complex argument

Operations of System 2 require attention and are disrupted when attention is drawn away!


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Both are active whenever we are awake.

System 1 runs automatically. It is in charge of the things we do most of the time. System 2 is normally in a comfortable low effort mode

When System 1 runs into difficulties, it calls on System 2 to support more detailed and specific processing that may solve the problem.

System 2 is mobilized when a question arises for which System 1 does not offer an answer.


Two Systems

System 1 + System 2

Compare 2 x 2 = ?17 x 24 = ?


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Two Systems Examples

Reference: H. Pishro-Nik from https://www.probabilitycourse.com/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNV-c-95vTM


KP Ludwig John

Cognitive biases (kognitive Verzerrungen)

A cognitive bias refers to the systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment Individuals create their own "subjective social reality" from their perception of the input

Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality.

Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias

Some Examples:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_reality

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrationality


KP Ludwig John

Estimate quickly

Task

for Group 2

8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1


KP Ludwig John

Estimate quickly

Task

What’s your guess?Write it down

for Group 2


KP Ludwig John

Estimates?

Task

Group 2

8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1

1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8Group 1

Result (calculated): 40 320What’s been your guesses?


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Examples

Reference: Laurie Santos (Yale University)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFiDdbquWJY

Anchor bias


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Anchor bias

Anchoring Effect occurs when people consider a particular valuefor an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity. The estimates stay close to the number that people considered. Any number that you are asked to consider as a possible solutionto an estimation problem will induce an anchoring effect


!

The spinning wheel Experiment


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Anchor biasThe spinning wheel Experiment


Wheel of fortune - prepared to only stop at either 10 or 65. Test persons were asked to turn the wheel and write down the resulting number (which would be 10 or 65).

Then answered these two questions:

Is the percentage of African nations in the UNlarger or smaller than the number you just wrote? What is the best guess of the percentage of African nations in the UN?

Average Estimatessaw

estimated10 6525% 45%


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Examples

Reference: Procurement Academy (YouTube Channel) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83Y-B72BiYY

Anchor bias


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Confirmation bias

Influences how people gather information but it also influences how they recall and interpret it.

Reference: www.quora.com/What-are-some-good-examples-of-a-confirmation-bias

Confirmation bias is the tendency to accept evidence that confirms our beliefs and to reject evidence that contradicts them

Reference: www.thoughtco.com/what-is-confirmation-bias-1689786

Example

If you were a messy kid … mom always picked out the instances when the room was a mess and socks were all over the floor, but never acknowledged when you had spent an hour cleaning it. This was simply because she was looking for evidence to support her already formed thesis that you were a messy kid. (Jochen Gruenbeck)


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Confirmation bias Example

Reference: H. Pishro-Nik from https://www.probabilitycourse.com/www.quora.com/What-are-some-good-examples-of-a-confirmation-bias


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Confirmation bias

When asked: Is Sam friendly?

… different instances of Sam’s behavior will come in mindthan would if you been asked:

Is Sam unfriendly?

People seek data that are likely to be compatible with the beliefs they currently hold.

The confirmation bias … favors uncritical acceptance of suggestions.


How does this effect surveys?


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Confirmation bias

Reference: Concordance Channel at YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u34BhEgO_es

Example


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Confirmation bias

Reference: IMS.UX 2018 Team Long

Example

Identical game, identical demonstration Different wording in Question!


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Halo Effect

Reference: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gandhara_Buddha_(tnm).jpeg

A halo (from Greek ἅλως, halōs;[1] also known as a nimbus, aureole, glory, or gloriole)

is a crown of light rays, circle or disk of light[2] that surrounds a person in art.

Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_(religious_iconography)

Gandhara Buddha. 1st-2nd century CE. Tokyo National Museum.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gandhara_Buddha_(tnm).jpeg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_language

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_(religious_iconography)#cite_note-1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aureola

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_(religious_iconography)#cite_note-2


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Halo Effect

Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect

When good-looking people, for example, are perceived as more intelligent, more successful and more popular, "that's the halo effect in psychology"[1]

It's caused by a cognitive bias,the tendency for an impression created in one area to influence opinion in another area.[3]


in Psychology

First use of this term in psychology was a 1920 paper by Edward Thorndike

This effect is named in reference to a personbeing perceived as having a halo

Gandhara Buddha. 1st-2nd century CE.

Tokyo National Museum.

A halo effect is an outcome in one area due to factors derived from another.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect#cite_note-Ries2006-1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect#cite_note-3


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Thorndike

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_(religious_iconography)


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Halo Effect

Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect

Gandhara Buddha. 1st-2nd century CE.

Tokyo National Museum.


in PsychologyObservers tend to bend their judgement according to one patent characteristic of the person (the "halo"), generalizing towards a judgement of that person's character

If the observer dislikes one aspect of something, they will have a negative predisposition toward everything about it.[8]

Effect works in both positive and negative directions.

If the observer likes one aspect of something, they will have a positive predisposition toward everything about it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect#cite_note-8


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Halo Effect


Example


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Halo Effect / Primacy Effect

Psychologist Solomon Asch presented descriptions of two people and asked for comments on their personality.


In other situations, evidence accumulates gradually and the interpretation is shaped by

the emotions attached to first impression.

Alan

intelligent – industrious – impulsive - critical – stubborn - envious intelligent - arbeitsam - impulsiv - kritisch - dickköpfig - neidisch

Ben

envious – stubborn – critical - impulsive – industrious – intelligent neidisch – dickköpfig – kritisch - impulsiv – arbeitsam – intelligent


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Choose one of the two as your co-worker in the project team!!

Alan


Ben



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The initial traits (Eigenschaften) in the list change the very meaning of the traits hat appear later.


Stubbornness of an intelligent person is seen likely to be justified … but intelligence in an envious and stubborn person make him more dangerous.

The halo effect increases the weight of first impressions, sometimes to the point that subsequent information is mostly wasted

Alan


Ben



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Reference: http://www.intropsych.com/ch15_social/biasing_effects_in_person_perception.html

Half the students received a description that listed his technical qualifications then noted (at the end) that he was considered a "very warm" person.

The other half of the students received the same description but with an ending that said he was considered a "rather cold" person.

The lecturer gave the same talk to all the students.

Those who had warm in their descriptions rated the lecture more favorably and were more likely to ask questions and interact with the lecturer.

The students with cold in their descriptions rated the lecturer as aloof (abgehoben) and unsociable. Only 32% said they wanted to ask him a question or interact with him, compared to 56% in the group that heard him described as warm.

!

Experiment by Harold Kelley in 1950: He gave a class of students a paragraph-sized description of a visiting lecturer.

http://www.intropsych.com/ch15_social/biasing_effects_in_person_perception.html


KP Ludwig John

Reference: https://www.simplypsychology.org/asch-conformity.html

Conformity

Solomon Asch - Conformity Experiment (1951)

to investigate the extent to which social pressure from a majority group could affect a person to conform.

Aim

Procedure

Using a line judgment task, Asch put a naive participant in a room with seven confederates.

The real participant did not know this and was led to believe that the other seven participants were also real participants like themselves.

„Vision Test“ as a Lab experiment with 50 male students.

The confederates had agreed in advance what their responses would be when presented with the line task.


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Conformity

Reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyDDyT1lDhA

Dr. Philip Zimbardo about Conformity Experiment by Solomon Asch


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Conformity


On average, about one third (32%) of the participants who were placed in this situation went along and conformed with the clearly incorrect majority on the critical trials

Results

about 75% of participants conformed at least once, and 25% of participant never conformed.

In the control group, with no pressure to conform to confederates, less than 1% of participants gave the wrong answer.

However, the subjects conformed much less if they had an „ally".Apparently, it is difficult to be a minority of one but not so difficult to be part of a minority of two.

Reference: http://www.age-of-the-sage.org/psychology/social/asch_conformity.html


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Conformity


When they were interviewed after the experiment, most of them said that they did not really believe their conforming answers, but had gone along with the group for fear of being ridiculed or thought "peculiar".

Conclusion

Apparently, people conform for two main reasons: because they want to fit in with the group (normative influence) and because they believe the group is better informed than they are (informational influence).


KP Ludwig John

Halo Effect / Primacy Effect / Conformity


How to avoidUse multiple sources of evidence,which are independent from each other

Allow individual (private) judgments

In Meetings: before to start a discussion let participants write down their position on the subject

In Evaluations: change sequence and order of test items throughout the process

To get personal evaluations of subsequent answers / resultsunbiased by previous results / evaluations / impressions (Halo)evaluate … without knowing previous results of the personor without knowing who the person is


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Availability heuristic

Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic

Mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision

Operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions which are not as readily recalled

People tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news


KP Ludwig JohnReference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_wkv1Gx2vMYouTube Channel CogSai



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Task 1: List six instances in which you behaved assertively (durchsetzungsfähig)

Task 2: Evaluate how assertive you are

in Questionnaires


Experiment by Norbert Schwarz

Task 1: List twelve instances in which you behaved assertively (durchsetzungsfähig)

Variation

Research Question

Will people evaluate differently depending on the number of instances asked


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Availability heuristic in Questionnaires



People who listed twelve instances rated themselves as less assertive than people who listed only six.

If you can not easily come up with instances for a certain behavioryou are likely to conclude you do not have that characteristic

Findings

• number of instances retrieved • the ease with which they come to mind

Two aspects to consider

Finding twelve instances is more impressive but more demanding (difficult) as well!

Which aspect will count more?


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Reference: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-67234

Experiment by Norbert SchwarzApplications of this experiment in other context found that people:

• believe that they used their bicycle less often after recalling many rather than few instances

• are less confident in a choice, when they are asked to produce more arguments to support it

• are less confident that an event was avoidable after listing more ways it could have been avoided

• are less impressed by a car after listing many of its advantages


http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-67234


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Professor (at UCLA) asked two different groups of students to list ways to improve the course.

… and … Varied the required number of ways to improve

As expected: the students who listed more ways to improve the classrated it higher!

Practical Exploitation of this experiment



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Framing Effect

Reference: https://psychologenie.com/meaning-examples-of-framing-effect

ExampleA glass of water which is either half-full or half-empty: both are equivalent truths.

When portrayed in a negative frame, you think that the glass is half-empty. If portrayed in a positive frame, you see the glass as half-full.

A displeasing event at the start of your day puts you in a negative frame of mind, and makes you feel negative.Everything goes wrong that day.


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Framing Effect


ExamplePositive FrameThe product has been proven effective in 80% cases.

Negative FrameThe product has failed to work on 2 out of every 10 cases.

People react in different ways to the same choice depending on the way and in which context it is presented.


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Framing Effect


The power of DefaultOrgan donation programs



KP Ludwig JohnDan Ariely about the power of Default (2008)Reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhjUJTw2i1M

Framing Effect The power of Default



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Framing EffectReference: https://constantrenewal.com/design-for-default/

The power of Default


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Framing Effect

Reference: Tanay Jaipuria https://medium.com/@tanayj/the-power-of-defaults-976bc8b015b7

The power of Default

Making an option the default among a set of choices increases the likelihood of it being chosen.

Reasons• Choosing something that isn’t the default requires some effort.

• Often the default is viewed as the recommended option.(Particularly important when choices are regarded as complex.)

Walt Disney WorldWhen restaurants changed the default choices in its kids’ meals from soda to juice and french fries to fruits and vegetables.

Kids consumed 21% fewer calories and 40% less fat and sodium.

Reference: https://wdwnews.com/releases/walt-disney-world-menus-evolving-with-healthful-choices/


KP Ludwig JohnDan Ariely about the power of Compare References (2008)Reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhjUJTw2i1M

Framing Effect Compare References



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Dan Ariely

Reference: http://zsoltbabocsai.org/dan-ariely-predictably-irrational/#sthash.i89Ag6B2.dpbs

The Economist wanted to offer these subscription options:

3. Print-and-Internet subscription for $125.

1. Internet-only subscription for $59.2. Print-only subscription for $125.

But they realized that very few people would pay that much for print so they added a twist.


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Dan Ariely

Reference: http://zsoltbabocsai.org/dan-ariely-predictably-irrational/#sthash.i89Ag6B2.dpbs

3. Print-and-Internet subscription for $125.

1. Internet-only subscription for $59.2. Print-only subscription for $125.

By adding this third option … they changed the basis for comparison. You get the online for free … if you pay for the print, which makes the 3rd option much more attractive.

Two options for the same price makes it easy to compare those two and choose the better one, and disregard the first option even if it’s half the price.


KP Ludwig John

1. Internet-only for $59. – 16%2. Print-only for $125. – 0%3. Print-and-Internet for $125. – 84%


Dan Ariely Reference: http://zsoltbabocsai.org/dan-ariely-predictably-irrational/#sthash.i89Ag6B2.dpbs

Subscription models chosenby Students in the experiment

1. Internet-only for $59. – 68% 2. Print-only for $125. – 32%


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Framing Effect Compare ReferencesReference: http://munchweb.com/predictably-irrational-summary-pdf-chapters-review-of-dan-arielys-bookDan Ariely

• A

• B (very distinct, but equally as attractive)

• and A- (similar to A, but inferior)

We will almost always choose A, because it is clearly superior to A-

Given three choices:

The addition of a third “A-” option, “Paris without a free breakfast”,will cause us to choose “Paris with a free breakfast”, the “A” option, over “Rome with a free breakfast”, the equally attractive “B” option.


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Summary Heuristics and Biases

Value present in the mind of a test personbefore asked to estimate a quantity, frequency, probability etc.

Anchor bias

Tendency to accept evidence that confirms our beliefs Confirmation bias

Outcome in one area due to factors derived from another.Halo effect

Conformity biasPeople want to fit in with the group (normative influence) and / or they believe the group is better informed than they are

Availability heuristicOperates on the notion that if something can be (easily) recalled, it must be important


Framing Effect


KP Ludwig John

PracticeLook for answers to your research questionsby conducting a survey

Determine 2 controversial desired results

Choose a research subject,and state your research questions

Imagine you have a personal interest that your survey yields a certain result

Create two versions of the surveyto produce the desired results

Apply at least three of the mentioned Biases when creating the versions


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Practice

Determine 2 controversial desired results

Create two versions of the surveyto produce the desired resultsApply at least three of the mentioned Biases when creating the versions

Come Together in Teams

Choose a test subject and research questions Determine measurements

Teamwork15 minutes


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Create a first draft of surveys

Task

• state the desired opposite outcomes of your surveys

• Create 10 Questions • State which Biases you want to use and how

Be ready to discuss your first drafts

next week

Determine the members of your teamand find a descriptive name for it


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Schedule + Material

21. January

delivery + presentation All Eyetracking and ObservationPDF

05. November

14:00 All short presentations (15 Min.) + deliverySurveys

hs-augsburg.de/homes/john

Documents

UX-Research 2b Cognitive-Biases - HS Augsburg...UX Research Cognitive Biases KP Ludwig John operates automatically, quickly and with little or no effortReference: Kahnemann, Thinking