Utility Perspectives on Electrification of the Vehicle

Knut SimonsenSr. Vice President, Strategy and M&APresident, Energy Ventures

November 15, 2009

1900s – 2x EVs compared to ICE

Detroit was the first American city to use electric taxi cabs

Note curb-side charging port

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Plug-in EV’s nothing new!

1914 Detroit

Electric drive technologies

3

Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)

Engine

Transmission

Differential

Engine

Transmission Motor

Batteries

Differential

Mechanical Coupling

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

Differential

Engine

Transmission

Mechanical Coupling

Batteries

Motor

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)

Engine

Motor

Batteries

Generator

Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV)

Motor

Batteries

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)

Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV)

Larger battery and less emissions

Today

Miles Electric only: 10-20 ~40 100+

Electric drive technologies and annual electricity consumption

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Annual Electricity Usage per Vehicle*(kWh)

* Assumes a vehicle drives 12,500 miles / day, PHEV and EREV electric usage varies depending on drive characteristics, Chevy Volt-type vehicle at 5 mi/kWh

• 75% of Americans drive less than 40 miles on their daily commute

• 40 miles electric only - achieves similar GHG reduction as BEV- Limited need for public charging

• BEVs will require faster charge rates and more daytime charging to address range “anxiety”- Needs public charging infrastructure

In addition to technology advances, multiple factors are aligning to support a successful launch of PEVs

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European Union target of 95 grams of CO2/km by 2020 => 60 mpg

U.S.A. Rest of World

China’s commitment to building 500,000/year hybrid and electric vehicles by 2012

Urban smog in emerging mega-cities

$2.4 Billion in U.S. stimulus dollars directed at advanced automotive batteries

Significant activity in Washington on federal climate legislation

Push for a domestic fuel source and fear of the return of high gas prices

Policy

Climate

Energy Security

* Gallon of gasoline equivalent price computed comparing ICE mileage of 26 mpg to PEV mileage of 5 mi/kWh at $0.10/kWh, 12,500 miles per year, undiscounted

Fuel Cost Comparison*($/Mile)

$12,500 - $17,500 fuel savings over

10 years*

Plug-ins have a big fuel cost advantage …

… but BIG upfront premium today

~$15,000 premium over regular car reduced by

$7,500 tax credit

but for now, disadvantaged on purchase price

US example

• USA

– Goal of 1 million by ‘15

– Up to $7,500 / vehicle

• Canada

– Ontario: up to C$10,000 / veh

– Green license plate: 5 yrs of HOV, special parking

• France

– $2.2 B for 1 mil. charge points

– $7,500 / vehicle through ‘12

• UK

– >$400 mil infrastr and auto

– $8,500 / vehicle, London lead

• China

– 25 mil cars and 100 mil e-bikes!

– Most are 1st time car buyers

– 100% tax on reduced for PEVs

– 13 cities picked for roll-out

– $8,800 for taxi and gov’t

– Skip ICE tech to focus on PEV

• Japan

– PEVs ~$16,000 incentive plus reduced road tax and registration

– 8 cities picked for pilots

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Summary of current PEV incentives

8* 204 lb/MMBtu CO2 emissions rate (no carbon capture), 9,500 heat rate coal plant, 7,500 heat rate natural gas plant, ICE engine at 26 mpg, Hybrid

drivetrain between 30-45 mpg, electric motor at 5 mi/kWhSource: Argonne National Labs GREET Model, DTE Team Analysis

ICE Hybrid Coal Natural Gas Nuclear, Wind, Solar, etc.

Gasoline Electricity (by source)

350

Electric drive reduces GHG emissions and our addiction to imported oil

Future

Freedom from petroleum: electricity a domestic resource

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Infrastructure in place for broad PEV adoption

* PHEV is likely to also contribute to increased load during peak hours. Illustrative example of electric utility load – similar to Detroit Edison** Estimated 600,000 cars and light trucks (does not include diesel trucks, buses, etc), 12,500 miles per year, 3.0 mi/kWh average efficiency, 75% electric

operationSource: DTE analyses, EPRI/NRDC Report

Impact of PEV on Typical Summer Load Profile (Ideal Case)*ILLUSTRATIVE

MW

10% market share**

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Uncontrolled charging could lead to localized outages if not properly managed

• Potential problems– Voltage dips (dimming lights, damage

to expensive electronics)– Service interruption– Transformer failure

• Measures to address these issues– On-vehicle charging control

(time/date control)– Utility notified at time of PEV

purchase– SmartGrid technology

25 kVA Transformer with Uncontrolled PEV Load*

Summer Load3 PEV @ 1.4 kW3 PEV @ 3.3 kWPeak Capacity

Design Capacity`

* 8-12 smaller, older homes per 25 kVA circuit. Most homes without central AC.

Load shape for warm summer day – adding 3 PEVs to a neighborhood

Can PEVs absorb excess off-peak wind generation in the future?

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• The answer is yes – however:- Need ~10% of vehicles to be PEV by ‘20 - ’25

• Wind tends to blow more at night when electric demand is at its lowest

• Creates carbon free transportation

Wind generation

Windy Spring Day (~60% cap. factor)Generation and Load Profile in MISO – 2020 Estimate

Illustrative ExampleMW

April 11 April 12

MidnightNoon Noon6 AM6 PM

* Assumes 20% RES requirement with 15% from wind (based on actual 2009 data – scaled up 5.4x for 2020)

US Utility industry pledge: Accelerate adoption of plug-in electric vehicles

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What should utilities and regulators be working on today?

• Streamlined process for customer is #1 priority– MiniE/EV1 home install: 30-40 days average with up to $3,000 installation cost– Integration with utility system planning can avoid localized transformer issues

• Develop PEV rates and capture benefits from flexible nature of demand• Consider a “behind-the-meter” home charging station installation service offering

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Create pilot programs today to “work out kinks” while vehicle volumes are low

Home Charging

Public Charging

• How much, how soon?• Form public / private partnerships to install high visibility charge spots

Customer / Stakeholder Education

• Be ready to handle customer questions, carbon equation• Update building codes to include 240V outlet in new home garages• Work with state and local inspection agencies to create a streamlined

permitting/inspection process for plug-in EV charging stations