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Using Urban Forests to Predict the Success of Western Red Cedar during
Global Change
Anna O’Brien
University of Washington
• Ecosystems are changing in their basic characteristics, to which organisms are often finely adapted
• Temperatures, CO2, & nitrogen deposition (nutrients)
Global Change
Melting sea ice
&
Animals Plants
• How will our local conifers respond to global change?
• Pacific Northwest forests are almost entirely made up of conifer trees, they provide the ecosystem structure on which countless other organisms depend, and are economically important
• Conifers will respond to global change variables1, and predicting this response is critical to conservation and management efforts
• I focus on Thuja plicata, Western Red Cedar
Research Question
1. Handa, Korner, Hattenschwiler 2006; Yin, Liu, Lai 2008
Modeling Global Change
Temperature Nitrogen deposition
CO2 levels
Future vs Current
Urban vs Rural Areas
• Urban areas resemble global change effects2
• Can therefore use the effects of urban areas on species and ecosystems to predict the effects of global change
2.Carreiro and Tripler 2005
Hypotheses
Thuja plicata recent germinant.
1. Edges of forest with urban influence will have higher temperatures and soil nitrogen levels than urban forest centers and rural areas
2. Reproduction of trees will be reduced at urban forest edges compared to urban forest centers and rural areas.
3. Growth of trees will be increased at urban forest edges compared to urban forest centers and rural areas.
• Seattle has forested parks in urban neighborhoods.• Rural area sites included to account for edge effects unrelated
to the urban influence.
Study Site
IButton
R
R
R
UU
U
UU
Growth: Take core with increment borer
Environment: Measure temperature with iButton, and take soil sample from two locations
Reproduction: Count seedlings
Measurements
Environment-N• Urban nitrogen levels > Rural nitrogen levels (P=.005)• Urban park edge nitrogen levels may not be significantly greater
than park center levels
0
5
10
15
20
25
Rural edge Rural center Urban edge Urban center
mg NO3/kg dry soil
Soil Nitrogen (NO3) Levels
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Environment-Temperature• Preliminary Temperature Data• Edge Temperatures > Center Temperatures
Temperature
(°C)
Feb 2009 Jun 2009
CENTER
EDGE
Schmitz Park – Temperatures
Reproduction• Low germination totals• Urban Center > Urban Edge• Rural Edge > Rural Center
Thuja plicata germination at edges and centers
00.05
0.10.15
0.20.25
0.30.35
Rural EdgePlots
Rural CenterPlots
Urban EdgePlots
Urban CenterPlots
Total germinants per number of plots
Growth
1. Obtain yearly growth data from tree cores
2. Obtain yearly temperature data for region & modify to local sites
3. Compare temperatures by year to tree growth
Directions
• Why so low germination?– Lack of viability – Herbivory– Fungi3
3.Weber, Karst, Gilbert & Kimmins, 2005
Thuja plicata seed, USDA plants, 2009
Conclusions
1. Environment – Urban edges show influence consistent with global change
2. Reproduction – Urban edges have a significant negative effect; low germination totals concerning
3. Growth – Hypothesize that growth will be increased at edges compared to other areas
• What is the likely future success of Thuja plicata?
• What does this mean for conservation and management?