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Stephen Summerhayes Manager Projects and Programs Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options for Local Government NCCARF Conference: October 2014 councils caring for the coastal environment

Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

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Page 1: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Stephen Summerhayes Manager Projects and Programs

Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal

Adaptation Options for Local Government NCCARF Conference: October 2014

councils caring for the coastal environment

Page 2: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

t0C

pH

Sea level

Erosion

Inundation

Flooding

Runoff

Storm surge

Cyclists

Boaters

Campers

Residents

Surfers

Swimmers

Fishers

Surf club

Picnicers

Local councils

Page 3: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

councils caring for the coastal environment

ABOUT SCCG

Page 4: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

SCCG

Incorporated Association

Established 1989

Sydney Coastal

Councils Group

ABOUT SCCG

Page 5: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

HISTORY

ABOUT SCCG

Page 6: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

SCCG

Incorporated Association

Established 1989

Regional Organisation of

Councils (ROC)

Peak coastal ROC

Sydney Coastal

Councils Group

ABOUT SCCG

Page 7: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

SCCG

Incorporated Association

Established 1989

Regional Organisation of

Councils (ROC)

Peak coastal ROC

15 Member Councils

Sydney Coastal

Councils Group

ABOUT SCCG

Page 8: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

SCCG

Incorporated Association

Established 1989

Regional Organisation of

Councils (ROC)

Peak coastal ROC

15 Member Councils

~591 Km of coast (ocean: 109,

estuaries: 482)

Sydney Coastal

Councils Group

ABOUT SCCG

Page 9: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

ABOUT SCCG

Page 10: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

MISSION

Lead sustainable

coastal management

ABOUT SCCG

Page 11: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

OUTCOMES ORIENTED

ABOUT SCCG

Page 12: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Beach Sand Nourishment

Study

Assessment and Decision

Frameworks for Seawall Structures

CCA of Interconnected

Water Infrastructure Project

Prioritising Coastal Adaptation and

Development Options

Landslide Risk Management

Mapping & Responding to

Coastal Inundation

Audit: Sea Level Rise Coastal Erosion and

Inundation Legislation and Policy

Systems Approach to Regional Climate

Change Adaptation

Assessment of climate change legislation and

policy

Emergency Management

Planning Health Check

Sydney’s Salt Dominated Biological

Communities

Coastal Vulnerability to

Multiple Inundation

Beach valuation

2008 VISION 2014 IMPLEMENTATION

PROJECTS

Climate change

Emergency risk

Biodiversity

Infrastructure Vulnerability

KEY

Page 13: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Assessment and Decision

Frameworks for Seawall Structures

CCA of Interconnected

Water Infrastructure Project

Sydney’s Salt Dominated Biological

Communities

Coastal Vulnerability to

Multiple Inundation

Beach Sand Nourishment

Study

Landslide Risk Management

Mapping & Responding to

Coastal Inundation

Audit: Sea Level Rise Coastal Erosion and

Inundation Legislation and Policy

Emergency Management

Planning Health Check

Beach valuation

2008 VISION 2014

Systems Approach to Regional Climate

Change Adaptation

Assessment of climate change legislation and

policy

IMPLEMENTATION

Prioritising Coastal Adaptation and

Development Options

PROJECTS

Climate change

Emergency risk

Biodiversity

Infrastructure Vulnerability

KEY

Page 14: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

http://pnefc-online.co.uk

Page 15: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

objectives

criteria

data acquisition

options

analysis (options v. criteria)

choice(s)

Page 16: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

objectives

criteria

data acquisition

options

analysis (options v. criteria)

choice(s)

Page 17: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options
Page 18: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options
Page 19: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Adaptation

options Evaluate

options Time horizons Values

- governance

- economic

- social

- environmental

Workshops

x 3 Survey

BN

Literature

Review

- protection

- accommodation

- retreat

- cross cutting

1-10

10-25

25+

Spatial data

Page 20: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

http://image.cdn.ispot.tv/ad/7Vdg/at-and-t-speed-dating-large-9.jpg

Page 21: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Multi-criteria analyses – the framework

Adaptation

options

Literature

Review

- protection

- accommodation

- retreat

- cross cutting

Page 22: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Adaptation options

Protection Retreat

Shoreline stabilisation Acquisition

Beach nourishment Increase setbacks

Groynes or artificial headlands Block development

Sea walls or revetments Rolling easements

Accommodation Cross-Cutting Options

Elevation of structures Community risk education

Removable structures Vulnerability & risk assessments

Risk spreading mechanisms ICZM

Water proofing of properties

Page 23: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Multi-criteria analyses – the framework

Adaptation

options Values

Survey Literature

Review

- protection

- accommodation

- retreat

- cross cutting

Page 24: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

What values influence decisions?

Page 25: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Relative importance of values in LG decision-making

Page 26: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Multi-criteria analyses – the framework

Adaptation

options Evaluate

options Time horizons Values

- governance

- economic

- social

- environmental

Workshops

x 3 Survey

Literature

Review

- protection

- accommodation

- retreat

- cross cutting

1-10

10-25

25+

Page 27: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options
Page 28: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options
Page 29: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Multi-criteria analyses – the framework

Adaptation

options Evaluate

options Time horizons Values

- governance

- economic

- social

- environmental

Workshops

x 3 Survey

BN

Literature

Review

- protection

- accommodation

- retreat

- cross cutting

1-10

10-25

25+

Page 30: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Monty Hall

http://www.5minute5.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Nov13_Video.jpg

Page 31: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

S2_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

05.0025.049.019.02.00

3.33 ± 0.84S3_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

05.0025.049.019.02.00

3.33 ± 0.84S4_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

011.037.042.08.002.00

3.05 ± 0.65

S2_Performance

-1 1

S1_Performance

-1 1

S3_Performance

-1 1

S4_Performance

-1 1

S_Performance

-1 to -0.8-0.8 to -0.6-0.6 to -0.4-0.4 to -0.2-0.2 to 00 to 0.20.2 to 0.40.4 to 0.60.6 to 0.80.8 to 1

3.0612.65.306.9116.424.118.67.702.852.50

-0.0185 ± 0.43

S_Utility

F2_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

02.0017.048.031.02.00

3.6 ± 0.95F3_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

02.0023.055.017.03.00

3.32 ± 0.77F4_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

04.0422.250.521.22.02

3.38 ± 0.86

F4_Performance

-1 1

F3_Performance

-1 1

F2_Performance

-1 1

F_Performance

-1 to -0.8-0.8 to -0.6-0.6 to -0.4-0.4 to -0.2-0.2 to 00 to 0.20.2 to 0.40.4 to 0.60.6 to 0.80.8 to 1

3.5412.76.4711.417.021.517.24.862.692.50

-0.0658 ± 0.43

F_Utility

F1_Risk_Performance

-1 1

G1_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

1.09.0032.041.016.0 1.0

3.21 ± 0.85

G3_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

01.9820.846.530.7

0

3.59 ± 0.95

G2_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

1.9812.933.738.69.902.97

3.03 ± 0.78

G4_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

02.0023.055.017.03.00

3.32 ± 0.77

G1_Performance

-1 1

G2_Performance

-1 1

G3_Performance

-1 1

G4_Performance

-1 1

G_Performance

-1 to -0.8-0.8 to -0.6-0.6 to -0.4-0.4 to -0.2-0.2 to 00 to 0.20.2 to 0.40.4 to 0.60.6 to 0.80.8 to 1

3.7413.52.923.939.6823.825.610.24.092.53

0.0387 ± 0.45

S1_WEIGHT_NORM

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

3.756.7515.98.2137.528.0

2.31 ± 1.2

F1_WEIGHT_NORM

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

4.818.3515.77.0734.529.6

2.42 ± 1.2

G_Utility

G4_Property_Rights

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

43.111.011.715.718.5

0.444 ± 1.6

G1_Planning_Policy

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

14.331.628.18.5217.4

0.169 ± 1.3

G1_External_Collaboration

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

9.0720.621.920.328.1

-0.377 ± 1.3

S2_Health_and_Safety

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

10.338.016.016.419.3

0.0367 ± 1.3

S1_Social_Protection

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

7.9531.612.717.830.0

-0.302 ± 1.4

S3_Social_Equity

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

7.6433.020.819.419.2

-0.0954 ± 1.3

S4_Community_Acceptance

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

11.027.519.721.120.7

-0.132 ± 1.3

F2_Council_Cost

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

3.9232.110.921.931.2

-0.444 ± 1.3

F3_Community_Cost

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

3.8125.110.929.830.3

-0.576 ± 1.3

F4_Future_Options

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

8.8545.28.9715.221.7

0.0426 ± 1.4

F1_Asset_Protection

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

7.9640.59.7521.120.7

-0.0603 ± 1.3

G3_Council_Liability

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

6.7635.433.17.1417.6

0.0661 ± 1.2

E2_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

01.9815.857.424.8

0

3.48 ± 0.89E3_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

02.0022.049.027.0

0

3.52 ± 0.91E4_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

01.9815.857.424.8

0

3.48 ± 0.89

E2_Performance

-1 1

E3_Performance

-1 1

E4_Performance

-1 1

E1_Performance

-1 1

E_Performance

-1 to -0.8-0.8 to -0.6-0.6 to -0.4-0.4 to -0.2-0.2 to 00 to 0.20.2 to 0.40.4 to 0.60.6 to 0.80.8 to 1

2.7112.79.5611.916.317.714.38.323.922.52

-0.0607 ± 0.44

E_Utility

E1_Natural_Adaptation

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

15.523.012.020.628.9

-0.243 ± 1.5

E2_Enhance_Amenity

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

11.523.211.823.929.7

-0.372 ± 1.4

E3_Externalities

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

9.5227.112.520.030.8

-0.355 ± 1.4

E4_Natural_Buffer

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

15.429.39.0420.925.4

-0.117 ± 1.5

E1_WEIGHT_NORM1

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

0.430.661.430.6687.49.38

1.26 ± 0.71

HAZARD_SLR

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowUnexposedNo Data

4.893.413.152.675.0080.9

0

8.5 ± 22

EROSION_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

4.1712.519.436.123.64.17

3.26 ± 1.1

SLR_RISK

No DataUnexposedVery LowLowModerateHighVery High

2.7064.810.44.925.375.776.08

14.1 ± 33

NET_HAZARD

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowUnexposedNo Data

12.59.538.948.3012.339.09.38

-6800 ± 25000

SLR_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

4.7116.027.837.811.81.90

2.98 ± 0.91

HAZARD_NEAR_TEST

1-1

91.98.12

0.838 ± 0.55

EROSION_RISK

No DataUnexposedVery LowLowModerateHighVery High

2.7070.39.383.423.714.196.33

12.7 ± 32

HAZARD_EROSION

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowUnexposedNo Data

5.081.371.050.971.1090.4

0

6.39 ± 21

PROPERTY_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

17.326.222.513.59.728.112.70

57.9 ± 69

PROPERTY_VALUE_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

PROPERTY_VALUE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

19.839.820.39.904.345.86

0

49.7 ± 29

ROADS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

21.039.417.8.025

0 0

21.8

47.7 ± 33

AIR

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.004 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.504 ± 0.67

AIR_BUS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.004 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.504 ± 0.67

OPEN_DRAINS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

28.025.417.9 0 + 0 0

28.8

45.6 ± 37

WATER_INFRASTRUCTURE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

2.7010.343.922.410.13.397.17

30.7 ± 49

WATER_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

WATER_INFRA_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.3012.326.523.916.27.308.51

29.6 ± 45

WASTE_MANAGE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.006 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.506 ± 0.78

STORM_PIPES

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

18.641.517.8.060

0 0

22.1

46.8 ± 32

TRANSPORT_INFRASTRUCTURE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.885.8927.522.913.211.013.6

32.1 ± 71

TRANSPORT_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

9.5510.516.518.816.714.113.9

54.8 ± 140

TRANSPORT_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

NET_ASSETS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowUnexposedNo Data

14.013.720.714.68.696.0122.3

-1040 ± 2500

FINANCIAL_ASSETS_TEST

1-1

72.227.8

0.444 ± 0.9

F1_W

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

4.818.3515.77.0734.529.6

58.6 ± 180

REC_FACs

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.018 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.517 ± 1.3

TRAILS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

18.142.716.70.61 0 + 0

21.9

46.9 ± 32

RECREATION

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.885.8931.621.810.211.013.6

22.1 ± 24

CARAVAN

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.006 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.505 ± 0.75

OPEN_SPACE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

2.830.210.220.250.8495.7

0

3.32 ± 15

COMMUNITY_HUB

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

33.51.641.631.291.5760.4

0

32.4 ± 42

CHILDCARE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.012 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.511 ± 1

COMMUNITY

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.886.5526.57.097.9740.25.88

18.8 ± 25

COMMUNITY_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

SOCIAL_ASSETS_TEST

1-1

75.724.3

0.513 ± 0.86

NET_SOCIAL_ASSETS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

11.49.8017.715.816.08.7320.5

-960 ± 2400

S1_W

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

3.756.7515.98.2137.528.0

51.4 ± 170

COMMUNITY_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.889.5012.419.918.128.16.16

24.6 ± 48

REC_AREAS_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

REC_AREAS_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

8.3112.118.117.415.714.513.9

31.5 ± 55

E1_W

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantNo Data

0.430.661.430.6687.49.38

14.7 ± 68

NET_ECO_ASSETS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

1.221.271.440.971.6593.4

0

7.58 ± 52

CRITICAL_HABITAT

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

1.681.331.190.941.7293.1

0

3.38 ± 14

BIODIVERSITY_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

BIODIVERSITY_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

1.221.271.440.971.6593.4

0

4.69 ± 23

ECO_ASSETS_TEST

1-1

100 0

1 ± 0

ERODABLE_COAST

YesNo

PUBLIC_LAND

YesNo

ROOM_FOR_SETBACK

YesNo

STUDY_REGION

SydneySunshine CoastBega

ADAPTATION_OPTION

Shoreline stablisationBeach nourishmentGroynes or headlandsSeawalls or revetmentsElevation of structuresRemovable structuresRisk spreadingWater proofingAcquisition of propertiesIncrease setbacksBlock developmentRolling easement

1.674191.421840.527050.321230.835881.280220.407000.427800.807721.332091.462650.95909

PLANNING_HORIZON

T 0 to 10 YearsT 10 to 25 YearsT 25 Years or More

The BN

Page 32: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

S2_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

05.0025.049.019.02.00

3.33 ± 0.84S3_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

05.0025.049.019.02.00

3.33 ± 0.84S4_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

011.037.042.08.002.00

3.05 ± 0.65

S2_Performance

-1 1

S1_Performance

-1 1

S3_Performance

-1 1

S4_Performance

-1 1

S_Performance

-1 to -0.8-0.8 to -0.6-0.6 to -0.4-0.4 to -0.2-0.2 to 00 to 0.20.2 to 0.40.4 to 0.60.6 to 0.80.8 to 1

3.0612.65.306.9116.424.118.67.702.852.50

-0.0185 ± 0.43

S_Utility

F2_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

02.0017.048.031.02.00

3.6 ± 0.95F3_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

02.0023.055.017.03.00

3.32 ± 0.77F4_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

04.0422.250.521.22.02

3.38 ± 0.86

F4_Performance

-1 1

F3_Performance

-1 1

F2_Performance

-1 1

F_Performance

-1 to -0.8-0.8 to -0.6-0.6 to -0.4-0.4 to -0.2-0.2 to 00 to 0.20.2 to 0.40.4 to 0.60.6 to 0.80.8 to 1

3.5412.76.4711.417.021.517.24.862.692.50

-0.0658 ± 0.43

F_Utility

F1_Risk_Performance

-1 1

G1_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

1.09.0032.041.016.0 1.0

3.21 ± 0.85

G3_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

01.9820.846.530.7

0

3.59 ± 0.95

G2_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

1.9812.933.738.69.902.97

3.03 ± 0.78

G4_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

02.0023.055.017.03.00

3.32 ± 0.77

G1_Performance

-1 1

G2_Performance

-1 1

G3_Performance

-1 1

G4_Performance

-1 1

G_Performance

-1 to -0.8-0.8 to -0.6-0.6 to -0.4-0.4 to -0.2-0.2 to 00 to 0.20.2 to 0.40.4 to 0.60.6 to 0.80.8 to 1

3.7413.52.923.939.6823.825.610.24.092.53

0.0387 ± 0.45

S1_WEIGHT_NORM

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

3.756.7515.98.2137.528.0

2.31 ± 1.2

F1_WEIGHT_NORM

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

4.818.3515.77.0734.529.6

2.42 ± 1.2

G_Utility

G4_Property_Rights

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

43.111.011.715.718.5

0.444 ± 1.6

G1_Planning_Policy

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

14.331.628.18.5217.4

0.169 ± 1.3

G1_External_Collaboration

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

9.0720.621.920.328.1

-0.377 ± 1.3

S2_Health_and_Safety

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

10.338.016.016.419.3

0.0367 ± 1.3

S1_Social_Protection

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

7.9531.612.717.830.0

-0.302 ± 1.4

S3_Social_Equity

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

7.6433.020.819.419.2

-0.0954 ± 1.3

S4_Community_Acceptance

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

11.027.519.721.120.7

-0.132 ± 1.3

F2_Council_Cost

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

3.9232.110.921.931.2

-0.444 ± 1.3

F3_Community_Cost

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

3.8125.110.929.830.3

-0.576 ± 1.3

F4_Future_Options

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

8.8545.28.9715.221.7

0.0426 ± 1.4

F1_Asset_Protection

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

7.9640.59.7521.120.7

-0.0603 ± 1.3

G3_Council_Liability

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

6.7635.433.17.1417.6

0.0661 ± 1.2

E2_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

01.9815.857.424.8

0

3.48 ± 0.89E3_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

02.0022.049.027.0

0

3.52 ± 0.91E4_Weight

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

01.9815.857.424.8

0

3.48 ± 0.89

E2_Performance

-1 1

E3_Performance

-1 1

E4_Performance

-1 1

E1_Performance

-1 1

E_Performance

-1 to -0.8-0.8 to -0.6-0.6 to -0.4-0.4 to -0.2-0.2 to 00 to 0.20.2 to 0.40.4 to 0.60.6 to 0.80.8 to 1

2.7112.79.5611.916.317.714.38.323.922.52

-0.0607 ± 0.44

E_Utility

E1_Natural_Adaptation

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

15.523.012.020.628.9

-0.243 ± 1.5

E2_Enhance_Amenity

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

11.523.211.823.929.7

-0.372 ± 1.4

E3_Externalities

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

9.5227.112.520.030.8

-0.355 ± 1.4

E4_Natural_Buffer

Strongly AgreeAgreeNeither Agree Nor DisagreeDisagreeStrongly Disagree

15.429.39.0420.925.4

-0.117 ± 1.5

E1_WEIGHT_NORM1

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

0.430.661.430.6687.49.38

1.26 ± 0.71

HAZARD_SLR

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowUnexposedNo Data

4.893.413.152.675.0080.9

0

8.5 ± 22

EROSION_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

4.1712.519.436.123.64.17

3.26 ± 1.1

SLR_RISK

No DataUnexposedVery LowLowModerateHighVery High

2.7064.810.44.925.375.776.08

14.1 ± 33

NET_HAZARD

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowUnexposedNo Data

12.59.538.948.3012.339.09.38

-6800 ± 25000

SLR_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

4.7116.027.837.811.81.90

2.98 ± 0.91

HAZARD_NEAR_TEST

1-1

91.98.12

0.838 ± 0.55

EROSION_RISK

No DataUnexposedVery LowLowModerateHighVery High

2.7070.39.383.423.714.196.33

12.7 ± 32

HAZARD_EROSION

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowUnexposedNo Data

5.081.371.050.971.1090.4

0

6.39 ± 21

PROPERTY_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

17.326.222.513.59.728.112.70

57.9 ± 69

PROPERTY_VALUE_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

PROPERTY_VALUE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

19.839.820.39.904.345.86

0

49.7 ± 29

ROADS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

21.039.417.8.025

0 0

21.8

47.7 ± 33

AIR

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.004 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.504 ± 0.67

AIR_BUS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.004 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.504 ± 0.67

OPEN_DRAINS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

28.025.417.9 0 + 0 0

28.8

45.6 ± 37

WATER_INFRASTRUCTURE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

2.7010.343.922.410.13.397.17

30.7 ± 49

WATER_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

WATER_INFRA_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.3012.326.523.916.27.308.51

29.6 ± 45

WASTE_MANAGE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.006 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.506 ± 0.78

STORM_PIPES

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

18.641.517.8.060

0 0

22.1

46.8 ± 32

TRANSPORT_INFRASTRUCTURE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.885.8927.522.913.211.013.6

32.1 ± 71

TRANSPORT_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

9.5510.516.518.816.714.113.9

54.8 ± 140

TRANSPORT_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

NET_ASSETS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowUnexposedNo Data

14.013.720.714.68.696.0122.3

-1040 ± 2500

FINANCIAL_ASSETS_TEST

1-1

72.227.8

0.444 ± 0.9

F1_W

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

4.818.3515.77.0734.529.6

58.6 ± 180

REC_FACs

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.018 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.517 ± 1.3

TRAILS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

18.142.716.70.61 0 + 0

21.9

46.9 ± 32

RECREATION

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.885.8931.621.810.211.013.6

22.1 ± 24

CARAVAN

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.006 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.505 ± 0.75

OPEN_SPACE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

2.830.210.220.250.8495.7

0

3.32 ± 15

COMMUNITY_HUB

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

33.51.641.631.291.5760.4

0

32.4 ± 42

CHILDCARE

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

.012 0 0 0 0

100 0

0.511 ± 1

COMMUNITY

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.886.5526.57.097.9740.25.88

18.8 ± 25

COMMUNITY_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

SOCIAL_ASSETS_TEST

1-1

75.724.3

0.513 ± 0.86

NET_SOCIAL_ASSETS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

11.49.8017.715.816.08.7320.5

-960 ± 2400

S1_W

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantDont know

3.756.7515.98.2137.528.0

51.4 ± 170

COMMUNITY_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

5.889.5012.419.918.128.16.16

24.6 ± 48

REC_AREAS_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

REC_AREAS_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

8.3112.118.117.415.714.513.9

31.5 ± 55

E1_W

CriticalHigh importanceModerate importanceLow importanceNot importantNo Data

0.430.661.430.6687.49.38

14.7 ± 68

NET_ECO_ASSETS

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

1.221.271.440.971.6593.4

0

7.58 ± 52

CRITICAL_HABITAT

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

1.681.331.190.941.7293.1

0

3.38 ± 14

BIODIVERSITY_W

Not importantLow importanceModerate importanceHigh importanceCriticalDont know

20.020.020.020.020.0

0

2.8 ± 1.3

BIODIVERSITY_RISK

Very HighHighModerateLowVery LowNoneNo Data

1.221.271.440.971.6593.4

0

4.69 ± 23

ECO_ASSETS_TEST

1-1

100 0

1 ± 0

ERODABLE_COAST

YesNo

PUBLIC_LAND

YesNo

ROOM_FOR_SETBACK

YesNo

STUDY_REGION

SydneySunshine CoastBega

ADAPTATION_OPTION

Shoreline stablisationBeach nourishmentGroynes or headlandsSeawalls or revetmentsElevation of structuresRemovable structuresRisk spreadingWater proofingAcquisition of propertiesIncrease setbacksBlock developmentRolling easement

1.674191.421840.527050.321230.835881.280220.407000.427800.807721.332091.462650.95909

PLANNING_HORIZON

T 0 to 10 YearsT 10 to 25 YearsT 25 Years or More

The BN

Page 33: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

‘Near-term’ time horizon

Adaptation Option G1 G2 G3 G4 F1 F2 F3 F4 S1 S2 S3 S4 E1 E2 E3 E4

Shoreline stabilisation 1.6 -0.1 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2

Beach nourishment 1.5 -0.7 1.1 1.0 0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 -0.5 0.2

Groynes or artificial headlands 1.3 -1.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.3 -0.5 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.6

Sea walls or revetments 1.4 -1.0 0.9 -0.1 1.3 -1.1 -0.5 -1.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6

Elevation of structures 1.1 0.7 0.9 -0.4 0.9 -0.9 -0.6 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.6 0.3

Removable structures in at-risk areas 1.0 0.6 1.0 -0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4

Risk spreading mechanisms -0.2 -0.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 -0.4 -0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -0.1 -0.6

Water proofing of at-risk properties 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 0.1 -0.2

Acquisition of at-risk properties 0.6 0.7 -0.3 -0.5 0.5 -1.8 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.7

Increase setbacks on at-risk properties 0.4 -0.3 0.7 -0.6 1.1 1.0 -0.5 1.2 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.0

Block development on at-risk properties 1.0 -0.1 0.7 -0.9 0.0 0.8 -1.4 1.2 -0.3 1.1 0.9 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Implement rolling easements -0.5 -0.8 0.3 -1.0 0.1 0.9 -0.7 0.9 -0.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.3

Community education about risk 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0

Assessments of vulnerability and risk 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 -0.3 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Integrated coastal zone management 1.1 -0.6 0.6 0.1 0.9 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4

Page 34: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Multi-criteria analyses – the framework

Adaptation

options Evaluate

options Time horizons Values

- governance

- economic

- social

- environmental

Workshops

x 3 Survey

BN

Literature

Review

- protection

- accommodation

- retreat

- cross cutting

1-10

10-25

25+

Spatial data

Page 35: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Additional decision nodes

Page 36: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Asset categories and data

Page 37: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Additional decision nodes

Page 38: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Coastal hazards

Page 39: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options
Page 40: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options
Page 41: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Visualisation

Page 42: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Visualisation

Page 43: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options
Page 44: Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal ... · Stephen Summerhayes . Manager Projects and Programs . Using Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Coastal Adaptation Options

Stephen Summerhayes Manager Projects and Programs

Contact Address: Town Hall House, 456 Kent Street, Sydney, 2000

Email: [email protected]

councils caring for the coastal environment