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Using ESV for Planning, Policy, and Management of DE’s Tidal Wetlands
• Amanda Santoni
• NOAA Coastal Management Fellow
• Delaware Coastal Programs
Amanda Santoni
Environmental Scientist III
Delaware Coastal Programs
Ecosystem Service Project Goals
• Do DE residents want to preserve tidal wetlands, and how much are they WTP?
• Which ecosystem services are priorities and what is the WTP for each?
• Obtain statistics on recreational use.
• Use these values to leverage funding for wetlands protection and management.
• Use priorities to help inform better management of existing wetlands.
Contingent Choice Valuation
• Multiple ecosystem services
• Use & non-use values
• Great for policy implications
• Allows for DE residents to voice how much they would actually pay
Attributes
Attribute No Action Levels
Acres (# of Acres) Loss of 400 acres (-400) -200,0,+200, +400
Cost ($/household/year) $0 $5, $15, $30, $50, $100, $200
Ecological Condition Score 55 out of 100 55,60, 65, 70
Water Quality Score 50 out of 100 50,60,70
Coastal Protection (For # of
houses/businesses)
Loss of protection for 40
houses/businesses (-40)
-40, no change, +40
Public Access No New New, No New
Management Responsibility No Change in ownership and
management
Government buys land,
Government obtains
easement, non-profit buys
land, non-profit obtains
easement, no change
Results: Recreation
Results: Recreation
1. Walking/Hiking
2. Fishing/Shellfish Harvesting
3. Swimming
Results: Recreation
1. Other
2. Other Wildlife Viewing
3. Birdwatching
Estimated Recreational Expenditures
Estimates per year for tidal wetlands
• Fishing: $38 million
• Wildlife viewing: $15 million
• Hunting: $9 million
*Accounted for inflation using CPI inflation
calculator from US Bureau of Labor Statistics
(2015$)
**These values should not be summed
Prior Knowledge
Results: Choice Experiment
Attributes
Per
household/year Per-unit/year
Acres Value Related to Lose 400
Acres - Lose 200 $33.5 $0.17(per acre)
Acres – no change 92.9* 0.23*(per acre)
Acres - Gain 200 100.6 0.17(per acre)
Acres - Gain 400 107.3 0.13(per acre)
Wildlife Condition Related to 55%
Wildlife Condition 60% 14.4* 2.88*(per percentage)
Wildlife Condition 65% 22.5 2.25(per percentage)
Wildlife Condition 70% 35.5 2.37(per percentage)
Water Quality Related to 50%
Water Quality 60% 32.4 3.24(per percentage)
Water Quality 70% 53.5 2.67(per percentage)
Coastal Protection Related to Lose 40
Coastal Protection – No Change 32.5 0.81(per structure)
Coastal Protection – Gain 40 structures 47.5 0.59(per structure)
New Access 5.1* -
Government buys land -1.73* -
Government obtains easement -6.92* -
Non-profit buys land 3.45* -
Non-profit obtains easement 16.59 -
Results: Choice Experiment
Attributes
Per
household/year Per-unit/year
Acres Value Related to Lose 400
Acres - Lose 200 $33.5 $0.17(per acre)
Acres – no change 92.9* 0.23*(per acre)
Acres - Gain 200 100.6 0.17(per acre)
Acres - Gain 400 107.3 0.13(per acre)
Wildlife Condition Related to 55%
Wildlife Condition 60% 14.4* 2.88*(per percentage)
Wildlife Condition 65% 22.5 2.25(per percentage)
Wildlife Condition 70% 35.5 2.37(per percentage)
Water Quality Related to 50%
Water Quality 60% 32.4 3.24(per percentage)
Water Quality 70% 53.5 2.67(per percentage)
Coastal Protection Related to Lose 40
Coastal Protection – No Change 32.5 0.81(per structure)
Coastal Protection – Gain 40 structures 47.5 0.59(per structure)
New Access 5.1* -
Government buys land -1.73* -
Government obtains easement -6.92* -
Non-profit buys land 3.45* -
Non-profit obtains easement 16.59 -
Results: Choice Experiment
Attributes
Per
household/year Per-unit/year
Acres Value Related to Lose 400
Acres - Lose 200 $33.5 $0.17(per acre)
Acres – no change 92.9* 0.23*(per acre)
Acres - Gain 200 100.6 0.17(per acre)
Acres - Gain 400 107.3 0.13(per acre)
Wildlife Condition Related to 55%
Wildlife Condition 60% 14.4* 2.88*(per percentage)
Wildlife Condition 65% 22.5 2.25(per percentage)
Wildlife Condition 70% 35.5 2.37(per percentage)
Water Quality Related to 50%
Water Quality 60% 32.4 3.24(per percentage)
Water Quality 70% 53.5 2.67(per percentage)
Coastal Protection Related to Lose 40
Coastal Protection – No Change 32.5 0.81(per structure)
Coastal Protection – Gain 40 structures 47.5 0.59(per structure)
New Access 5.1* -
Government buys land -1.73* -
Government obtains easement -6.92* -
Non-profit buys land 3.45* -
Non-profit obtains easement 16.59 -
Results: Choice Experiment
Attributes
Per
household/year Per-unit/year
Acres Value Related to Lose 400
Acres - Lose 200 $33.5 $0.17(per acre)
Acres – no change 92.9* 0.23*(per acre)
Acres - Gain 200 100.6 0.17(per acre)
Acres - Gain 400 107.3 0.13(per acre)
Wildlife Condition Related to 55%
Wildlife Condition 60% 14.4* 2.88*(per percentage)
Wildlife Condition 65% 22.5 2.25(per percentage)
Wildlife Condition 70% 35.5 2.37(per percentage)
Water Quality Related to 50%
Water Quality 60% 32.4 3.24(per percentage)
Water Quality 70% 53.5 2.67(per percentage)
Coastal Protection Related to Lose 40
Coastal Protection – No Change 32.5 0.81(per structure)
Coastal Protection – Gain 40 structures 47.5 0.59(per structure)
New Access 5.1* -
Government buys land -1.73* -
Government obtains easement -6.92* -
Non-profit buys land 3.45* -
Non-profit obtains easement 16.59 -
* Computed based on insignificant (α=0.1) parameter estimates
Scenarios
WTP/household/year Aggregate/year
Small Gain
Lose 200 acres; wildlife 60%$47.9 $16 million
339,046 households in DE
Scenarios
WTP/household/year Aggregate/year
Small Gain
Lose 200 acres; wildlife 60%$47.9 $16 million
No ∆ From Today
Acres no change; wildlife/water 60%$172.2 $58 million
339,046 households in DE
Scenarios
WTP/household/year Aggregate/year
Small Gain
Lose 200 acres; wildlife 60%$47.9 $16 million
No ∆ From Today
Acres no change; wildlife/water 60%$172.2 $58 million
Medium Gain #1
Acres no change; wildlife 65%; water 60%;
coastal protection lose 0 structures
$180.3 $61 million
Medium Gain #2
Gain 200 Acres; wildlife 65%; water 60%; coastal
protection lose 0 structures
$188.0 $63 million
Large Gain
Gain 400 Acres; wildlife 70%; water 70%; coastal
protection Gain 40 structures; new access
$248.9 $84 million
339,046 households in DE
Results: Choice Experiment
Attribute-level Coefficient t-statistics p-value
Cost -0.010 -8.91* <0.00001
Acres
Acres - Loss 200 -0.577 -1.89* 0.059
Acres – no change -0.918 -1.6 0.110
Acres - Gain 200 -1.731 -2.04* 0.042
Acres - Gain 400 -2.553 -2.25* 0.025
Wildlife Condition
Wildlife Condition 60% 0.131 1.59 0.112
Wildlife Condition 65% 0.205 2.58* 0.010
Wildlife Condition 70% 0.324 4.18* 0.00003
Water Quality
Water Quality 60% 0.296 4.34* 0.00002
Water Quality 70% 0.488 6.44* <0.00001
Coastal Protection
Coastal Protection – No Change 0.288 4.04* 0.00006
Coastal Protection – Gain 40
structures 0.415 5.12*
<0.00001
New Access -0.087 -0.92 0.36
Management Options
Government buys land -0.016 -0.17 0.87
Government obtains easement -0.063 -0.69 0.49
Non-profit buys land 0.032 0.35 0.73
Non-profit obtains easement 0.151 1.7* 0.09
Cost * Income(in $1000) 7.11E-06 0.64 0.52
Acres * ln(Age) 0.0003 0.82 0.41
Acres * Education 0.0001 2.15* 0.03
Acres * Income (in $1000) 1.64E-06 0.6 0.55
Acres * New Castle County 0.0005 1.33 0.18
Acres * Sussex County 0.0007 2.14* 0.03
Acres * ln(Distance to wetland (in
kilometers)) 1.62E-05 0.15
0.88
Acres * Recreation 0.0009 3.2* 0.001
Coastal Protection * Close to
wetland (<1 kilometer) 0.0009 0.47
0.64
New Access * Recreation 0.196 1.66* 0.097
# of observations 8,220 (548 individuals)
Log Pseudolikelihood -2511.3147
Pseudo R2 0.1657
Attribute-level Coefficient t-statistics p-value
Cost -0.010 -8.91* <0.00001
Acres
Acres - Loss 200 -0.577 -1.89* 0.059
Acres – no change -0.918 -1.6 0.110
Acres - Gain 200 -1.731 -2.04* 0.042
Acres - Gain 400 -2.553 -2.25* 0.025
Wildlife Condition
Wildlife Condition 60% 0.131 1.59 0.112
Wildlife Condition 65% 0.205 2.58* 0.010
Wildlife Condition 70% 0.324 4.18* 0.00003
Water Quality
Water Quality 60% 0.296 4.34* 0.00002
Water Quality 70% 0.488 6.44* <0.00001
Coastal Protection
Coastal Protection – No Change 0.288 4.04* 0.00006
Coastal Protection – Gain 40
structures 0.415 5.12*
<0.00001
New Access -0.087 -0.92 0.36
Management Options
Government buys land -0.016 -0.17 0.87
Government obtains easement -0.063 -0.69 0.49
Non-profit buys land 0.032 0.35 0.73
Non-profit obtains easement 0.151 1.7* 0.09
Cost * Income(in $1000) 7.11E-06 0.64 0.52
Acres * ln(Age) 0.0003 0.82 0.41
Acres * Education 0.0001 2.15* 0.03
Acres * Income (in $1000) 1.64E-06 0.6 0.55
Acres * New Castle County 0.0005 1.33 0.18
Acres * Sussex County 0.0007 2.14* 0.03
Acres * ln(Distance to wetland (in
kilometers)) 1.62E-05 0.15
0.88
Acres * Recreation 0.0009 3.2* 0.001
Coastal Protection * Close to
wetland (<1 kilometer) 0.0009 0.47
0.64
New Access * Recreation 0.196 1.66* 0.097
# of observations 8,220 (548 individuals)
Log Pseudolikelihood -2511.3147
Pseudo R2 0.1657
• Income, age, and proximity to wetlands did not have a significant effect
on # acres selected.
• Significant effect on # Acres for those who recreate, or have higher
education levels and those from Sussex county.
Results: Validity
Policy Recommendations?
Workshops to determine recommendations
• Allocate funding
• $$ for open space?
• $$ for a new approach?
• Ownership and management
• State/local/federal government
• Non-profit
• Ensure that state policies take into account
the importance of these habitats
• Migration corridors
• Open space acquisition ranking
Thank You!• NOAA Office For Coastal Management
• Tridec Technologies
• Bob Scarborough, Bonnie Arvay, Carl YetterDelaware Coastal Programs, DNREC
• George ParsonsUniversity of Delaware
• Rob JohnstonClark University, Worcester MA
• Pete Wiley, Chris EllisNOAA
• Ian YueNOAA Coastal Management Fellow, Connecticut
• Max Neilsen-Pincus
Portland State University
• Elizabeth SchusterThe Nature Conservancy
• UMCES IAN Image Library
Symbols Courtesy of the Integration and Application Network, University
of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (ian.umces.edu/symbols/)
DemographicsDemographic Survey Sample Delaware Demographics
Gender a (%)
Female 55% 52%
Male 44% 48%
Other/Prefer
not to answer
1% n/a
Age a (%)
18-24 7% 13.%
25-34 14% 16%
35-44 15% 17%
45-54 23% 19%
55-64 20% 16%
65+ 21% 19%
Household Income b ($)
Mean $60,000-$79,999 $78,559
Median $60,000-$79,999 $60,321
Education C (%)
Some High
School
2% 12%
High School
Degree
20% 32%
Some College 38% 27%
Bachelor’s
Degree
23% 18%
Masters,
Professional or
Doctoral Degree
16% 12%
County of Residence d
(%)
Kent 21% 18%
New Castle 49% 60%
Sussex 30% 22%
Process
Public Workshops
Expert Consultations
Existing Data
Experimental Design
Survey Distribution
Data Analysis
Report & Outreach
Pilot Studies
Tidal Wetlands in Delaware
• 25% of Delaware is
wetland
• ~87,000 acres tidal
(~320,000 total)
Tidal Wetlands in Delaware
• Loss of 580 acres estuarine vegetated wetlands 1992-2007 (Tineret al, 2011).
• 92% decrease brackish marsh, 14% increase estuarine open water
under 69 cm SLR (NWF, 2008).