Using biological data to test climate change refugia

Toni Lyn Morelli

with SP Maher, SR Beissinger, C Moritz,

K Nydick, J Ebersole, C Daly, S Dobrowski, D Dulen,

L Eastman, A Flint, L Flint, ST Jackson, C Kastely, M Lim,

JD Lundquist, CI Millar, WB Monahan, KT Redmond,

S Sawyer, & S Stock

Using biological data to test climate change refugia

Managing Climate Change Refugia

for Climate Adaptation

TL Morelli, SP Maher, K Nydick, J Ebersole,

WB Monahan, C Daly, S Dobrowski, D Dulen, ST Jackson, JD Lundquist, CI Millar, KT

Redmond, S Sawyer, S Stock, & SR Beissinger

Areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable persistence of valued resources

Morelli et al. In Review

PLOS ONE

Morelli et al. In Review

PLOS ONE Inspired by the CSCC, Stein et al. 2014

Climate change refugia

conservation cycle

Identify Climate Change Refugia

a) Target Refugial Processes

Examples of the physical basis for climate refugia

a) Target Refugial Processes

b) Model Stability Based on Recent or Future Climate

c) Locate Areas of High Resource Persistence or Diversity

Identify Climate Change Refugia

Montane Meadows

• Botanically diverse

• Important to animal communities

• Critical to hydrological function

• Significant to recreation and economy

U.S. Global Change Research Program

1991-2012 vs. 1901-1960

Observed U.S. Warming

California Climate Tracker

Record California Warming

Record California Drought

California Climate Tracker

Mann & Gleick 2015 PNAS

Modeling Climate Stability ~17,000 meadows

Fryjoff-Hung & Viers, 2012. http://meadows.ucdavis.edu/

Diff 1970-1999 & 1910-1939

PRISM ds to 270m

BCM (Flint et al. 2013)

Maher, Morelli et al. In Revision

climate.calcommons.org

Steps for Managing

Climate Change Refugia

Belding’s Ground Squirrel

(Urocitellus beldingi)

• Habitat specialist

• Highly detectable

• Group-living

Grinnell Surveys (1900-1939)

Persistent Sites = 43

Extirpated Sites = 31

Original Surveys: 1902-1966

Resurveys: 2003-2011

Detectability (p) > 0.995 for 2+ visits

42% Rate of Site Extirpations Across CA

Testing the Climate Refugia Map ~17,000 meadows

* All Sig at p <0.05 except SWE

Climate Refugia Predict Persistence

Morelli et al. In Review

Global Change Biology

Pro

port

ion o

f Sites

where

U. beld

ingi Pers

iste

d

2-Samp Wilcox. Test

**p <0.001

***p <0.0001

Climate Refugia Predict Occupancy

***

(N = 18)

(N = 20)

2011

**

**

in

Min

imu

m T

emp

Δ

in

An

nu

al P

reci

p

Δ

in

Ap

ril S

WE

Δ

Temperature correlates with Genetic Diversity

Modern Minimum Temperature (°C)

p = 0.002 R2adj = 0.66

Morelli et al. In Review

Global Change Biology

n = 124

Morelli et al. In Review

PLOS ONE

Morelli et al. 2012 Proc B

Persistence = Blue

n = 16 n = 18 n = 40

Modern Winter Temperature

p = 0.007

≤-4°C

Human modification

p = 0.036

>-4°C

Artificial Natural

- 1

- 0.8

- 0.6

- 0.4

- 0.2

- 0

Extirpation = Red

Pro

portio

n o

f Site

s

Where

U. b

eld

ingi P

ersist

Classification error rate (OOB estimate)

= 18.92%

Anthropogenic Refugia?

1970s

Thanks!

• Co-authors

• Funders

• NECSC colleagues

• Moritz Lab

• Beissinger Lab

• Michelle Koo

• Michelle Hershey

• Christina Kastely, Ilaria Mastroserio, Matt Pfannenstiel, & other field assistants

UC Davis Information Center for the Environment (ICE)

climate.calcommons.org northeastclimate.org