User needs

Iain MacLeay – Head Energy Balances, Prices and Publications

Date May 2009

Outline of Presentation

1.Mandate

2.Codes of Practice for Official Statistics

3.User needs

4.Key UK (and EU) policy areas

Extract from UN paper E/CN.3/2009/4 towards IRES report of the UN Sec- Gen.

Guiding principles for the revision and updating process

18a. Needs of major user groups should be considered as a starting point and be taken into account to the maximum extent possible to ensure that the compiled data are policy relevant, meet the needs of the energy community (both producers and users) and provide a solid foundation for integration of energy statistics into a broader accounting framework.

UK Code of practice for Official Statistics

1. Meeting user needs

2. Impartiality and objectivity

3. Integrity

4. Sound methods and assured quality

5. Confidentiality

6. Proportionate burden

7. Resources

8. Frankness and accessibility

UK Code of Practice

Principle 1: Meeting user needsThe production, management and dissemination of official statistics should meet the requirements of informed decision-making by government, public services, business, researchers and the public.

Practices

1. Engage effectively with users of statistics to promote trust and maximise public value, in accordance with Protocol 1.

2. Investigate and document the needs of users of official statistics, the use made of existing statistics and the types of decision they inform.

3. Adopt systematic statistical planning arrangements, including transparent priority setting, that reflect the obligation to serve the public good.

4. Publish statistical reports according to a published timetable that takes account of user needs.

5. Publish information about users’ experiences of statistical services, data quality, and the format and timing of reports.

EU Code of Practice

1. Institutional environmentProfessional independence, Mandate for Data Collection,

Adequacy of Resources, Quality Commitment, Statistical Confidentiality and Impartiality and Objectivity.

2. Statistical processesSound Methodology, Appropriate Statistical Procedures,

Non-Excessive Burden on Respondents, Cost Effectiveness.

3. Statistical outputMeeting users’ needs and compliance with European

standards on quality in statistics. Relevance, Accuracy and Reliability, Timeliness and

Punctuality, Coherence and Comparability, Accessibility and Clarity.

User needs - part 1

• In larger economies greater details are needed whilst smaller economies can make do with a more simplified balance.

• In addition to a single overarching energy balance, detailed balances by fuel are also required.

User needs - part 2

1. Base data / benchmark for modelling current policies.

a. Energy efficiency

b. Monitoring EU directives etc

2. Base data for long term energy projections

a. How will energy mix evolve

b. Scenarios

3. Emissions work

a. Base data for National Inventories

User needs - part 3

4. Cross sectional analysis of energy

5. General trend analysis, fuel switching etc.

6. Energy planning

a. the balance is the big picture

b. the balance shows level of energy diversity, important for security of supply

Key UK Policy Areas

• Climate change

• Renewables

• Security of Supply

Climate Change

Early estimates of CO2 based on

• Electricity generation mix• Energy industry use by fuel• Final energy consumption by fuel by purpose

Renewables

• 20/20 target• Percentage of renewable energy in the EU in 2020

to be greater than 20%.• The share of renewable energy is defined as the

ratio of total renewable energy consumed to capped total final energy consumption

• UK target is 15%

Denominator for Renewables Calculation

Denominator for Renewables Calculation

=

Final consumption of energy less non-energy use (with air adjustment)

+

Energy used in electricity generation

+

Pumped storage

+

Electricity transmission losses

(all calculated with NCVs)

Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent

Hard CoalsMan. Solid

FuelsCrude Oil &

NGLPetroleum

Products Natural Gas

Combustible

Renewables & Waste

Primary Electricity Electricity

Heat Sold TOTAL

SUPPLYIndigenous Production 1 10,134 80,049 64,912 3,237 14,928 173,261

Imports 2 26,781 727 59,230 24,817 26,159 321 741 138,776

Exports 3 -381 -181 -52,998 -30,528 -9,531 -292 -93,911

Intl. Marine Bunkers 4 -2,391 -2,391

Stock Change 5 1,801 -22 814 1,032 424 4,050

PRIMARY SUPPLY 6 38,336 524 87,095 -7,071 81,964 3,559 14,928 448 219,784

STAT DIFF 7 94 -28 -111 -89 118 130 113

PRIMARY DEMAND 8 38,242 552 87,206 -6,981 81,847 3,559 14,928 318 219,671

sd 9

Transfers 10 -127 -3,051 3,071 -6 -892 892 -112

TRANSFORMATION 11 -36,651 1,639 -84,155 83,504 -28,939 -2,935 -14,036 32,865 1,190 -47,517

Electricity Generation 12 -31,253 -919 -644 -27,357 -2,935 -14,036 32,865 -44,279

Major Power Producers 13 -30,367 -201 -24,751 -570 -14,036 30,116 -39,808

Autogenerators 14 -887 -919 -443 -2,606 -2,365 2,749 -4,471

Heat generation -272 -48 -57 -1,582 1,190 -769

Pet. Product Manufacture 15 -84,155 84,405 249

Coke Manufacture 16 -4,103 4,071 -32

Blast Furnaces 17 -859 -1,633 -199 -2,691

Patent Fuel Manufacture 18 -163 168 4

Other 19

ENERGY INDUSTRY USE 20 4 837 4,327 5,766 2,404 60 13,397

Electricity Generation 21 1,555 1,555

Oil & Gas Extraction 22 4,970 48 5,019

Pet. Product Manufacture 23 4,327 262 401 60 5,050

Coal Extraction 24 4 7 85 95

Coke Manufacture 25 388 24 8 419

Blast Furnaces 26 449 0 56 41 546Patent Fuel Manufacture 27

Pumped Storage 28 104 104

Other 29 447 162 609

Network & Other Losses 30 213 934 2,270 3,416

FINAL CONSUMPTION 31 1,588 1,015 75,267 46,202 624 29,402 1,130 155,228

INDUSTRY 32 1,113 832 6,497 10,584 225 10,123 692 30,067

unclassified 33 220 2,510 3 225 2,957

Iron & Steel 34 1 613 19 568 423 1,623

non-ferrous metals 35 20 46 262 673 1,002

mineral products 36 655 188 868 705 2,416

chemicals 37 87 183 2,881 1,829 278 5,258

mechanical engineering 38 7 102 606 750 2 1,466

electrical engineering 39 4 34 308 625 971

vehicles 40 33 117 683 510 1,343

food, drink & tobacco 41 29 255 2,060 1,058 1 3,402

textiles, leather etc 42 50 113 494 288 945

paper, printing 43 96 62 851 1,178 1 2,188

other industries 44 133 2,707 793 1,945 411 5,989

construction 45 161 208 137 506

TRANSPORT 46 56,214 710 56,924

Air 47 13,282 13,282

Rail 48 667 667

Road 49 40,724 40,724

National Navigation 50 1,541 1,541

Pipelines 51

OTHER 52 476 183 4,165 34,808 399 18,569 437 59,037

Domestic 53 463 183 2,736 27,081 240 9,893 52 40,646

Public Admin 54 5 464 3,451 82 1,879 376 6,257

Commercial 55 4 389 2,782 6,469 9 9,653

Agriculture 56 3 280 155 63 329 829

Miscellaneous 57 1 296 1,341 14 1,652

NON ENERGY USE 58 8,390 809 9,199

Security of Supply

• Primary energy by fuel• Electricity generation mix• Import dependency• Investment plans and levels

Primary energy supply by fuel

Chart E3.2: Shares of fuels contributing to primary energy supply; fossil fuel dependency, 1970 to 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2007

Per

cen

tag

e o

f p

rim

ary

ener

gy

sup

ply

Thermal renewables and waste

Primary electricity (nuclear, hydro, wind and net imports)

Natural gas

Petroleum

Coal

Fossil fuel dependency