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3RD MLA WORKSHOP

SPEKE RESORT MUNYONYO, KAMPALA

16TH – 23RD AUGUST 2016

Innocent Bikara

PROGRESS ON MLA

FORECASTING MODEL FOR

OSP IN UGANDA

PROCESS OF MLA MODEL BUILDING

Summary of Changes

• Extended from 2014 to 2020

• H+ Uganda reported a combination of Direct & PB; & the model still computed the later separately;

• From 2 to 6 varieties

• Proportional Distribution by Variety (for weighting) vis-à-vis arithmetic means of yield & β-carotene content

• 1st & 2nd cycle yields dropped, rather farmer yields

Summary of Changes

• Informal farmer-to-farmer diffusion takes place after 2nd cycle of planting not 1st

• Payback system started in 2012, not 2007

• Non-OSP production & consumption

– Additional Vit A intake (given mkt shares & nutrient contents for white & yellow)

• % of household area allocated to OSP capped at 50% of average household SP area

• Bioconversion: 12:1 to 13:1

Summary of Changes

Variable Before AfterQuantities diffused 500 1000

Area expansion factor; 1st to 2nd

& 2nd to 3rd planting1 1.375

• Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) parameters

• Costs of biofortification

Comparison of model Estimates

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Receiving through Payback, cummulative

Old Current

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Total Production (tons)

Old Current

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

% EAR delivered for Children<5

Old Current Target (50%)

05000

1000015000200002500030000350004000045000

Total Land Under Orange Fleshed Sweet Potato in Uganda (acres)

Old Current

Consistency Check

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Comparison of Number(s) of Households Reached

Model Model, 100% Adoption, No attrition, no multiple reach Sharepoint

Model Results

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Num

ber

of

Farm

ers

Cumulative Number of Farmers Growing OSP Potato in Uganda

Total Still Growing, cummulative DRA- still growing

Receiving Informally- still growing Receiving through Payback- still growing

Model Results

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q1

2015Q3

Percentage of Sweet Potato farmers Growing OSP

Model Results

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q1

2015Q3

Average household land allocation & total land under OSP (acres)

Average Household Land allocation to Orange Fleshed Sweet Potatoes in Uganda (acres)

Total Land Under Orange Fleshed Sweet Potato in Uganda (acres)

Model Results

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Percentage Sweet Potato Area under OSP

% SP area under OSP-Unconditional % SP area under OSP-Conditional

Model Results

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Trend of per capita intake of OSP among growing households (g/day)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% of OSP in per capita sweet potato consumption-Conditional

OSP Other

Model Results

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q1

2015Q3

% EAR delivered for children & women in OSP cultivating hhs

Percentage Average EAR Delivered for Children 12-59 Months in Cultivating Households

Percentage Average EAR Delivered for Pregnant Women 15-49 yrs in Cultivating Households

Percentage Average EAR Delivered for Lactating Women 15-49 yrs in Cultivating Households

Target (50%)

Model Results

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

2014Q1

2014Q3

2015Q1

2015Q3

Percentage Average EAR Delivered for Children 12-59 Months in Secondary Households

Percentage Average EAR Delivered for Pregnant Women 15-49 yrs in Secondary Households

Percentage Average EAR Delivered for Lactating Women 15-49 yrs in Secondary Households

% EAR delivered for children & women in hhs which receive OSP from cultivating hhs

Model Results

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

DALYs saved DALYs lost-biofortification

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

DALYs saved DALYs lost-biofortification0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% DALYs saved

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

DALYs lost-biofortification DALYs lost status quo

Model Results

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

DALYs Saved

Grow & Consume Don’t Grow but Consume

Model Results

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

DALYs Saved

Grow & Consume Don’t Grow but Consume

Model Results

$19 $20

$150

Low Cost High Cost World Bank Threshold

Cost per DALY saved-All consumers

$31 $32

$150

Low Cost High Cost World Bank Threshold

Cost per DALY saved-Only Growers

47

45

Benefit-Cost Ratio

Low cost High

$548.00

$547.00

GROW CONSUME, DON’T GROW BUT CONSUME, STANDARD

Net Present Value ('000,000)

Low cost High

341% 341%

GROW CONSUME, DON’T GROW BUT CONSUME, STANDARD

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Low cost High

THANK YOU