Use of administrative registers in census 2011. Estonian experience

Ene-Margit Tiit, prof emer. Statistics Estonia, University of Tartu

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

Content

Usage of registers during the census 2011 Usage of registers for assessing the real

population size and coverage rate

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

USAGE OF REGISTERS DURING THE CENSUS

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

Methodology of census2011 in EstoniaThe methodology of the census 2011 in Estonia was a combination of using administrative registers, self-enumeration by internet and face-to-face interviews. In general, this methodology justified our hopes, so that about 65% of population enumerated themselves using internet and in general, the quality of the data was high. But this method also caused some undercoverage. In the case when a people marked by internet a wrong address, then the enumerator did not visit this address during the field work.

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

E-enumeration rate

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

Administrative registers were used in different steps of the census: Population register and buildings’ register were used

in preparation of working lists for enumerators; Population register and register of census data from

2000 were used to pre-fill the census questionnaires; The data about current studying were taken from the

information basis of education; The registers listed, but also some other sources

will be used for imputation missing values in the census data-base.

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

USAGE OF REGISTERS FOR ASSESSING THE REAL POPULATION SIZE AND COVERAGE RATE

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

It is well-known fact that nowadays due high mobility of the population the undercoverage of the census is a serious problem. The situation is more complicated when the combined methodology is used.

To assess the coverage rate the real population size must be assessed, using some exterior data resources.

From this fact follows the second task where the registers will be used. It is

estimation of the amount of non-enumerated people, calculation of population size assessing the number of illegal emigrants between two

censuses estimating the coverage rate of the census.

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

With this aim we will use about 10 different registers that form an unified system in Estonia where all persons are identified using ID-codes.

The population register that is the central register and has been created about 20 years ago, contains about 4% more persons than the number of persons enumerated by census.

Some of these people do not live in Estonia any more, as they are illegally (without registration) emigrated.

Another part of these people live still in Estonia, but they were by different reasons not enumerated.

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

People in Population Register form the set P and the set of enumerated people is E.

It is necessary to divide the set P—E into two parts:A – residentsB – non-residents (emigrated)#A – number of people in A

Then the real poplation size is N = #E+#A

and the coverage rate is #E/N

01.01.2006

Population Register

B

A

Enumerated

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

We assumed that people living in Estonia (being residents), are active in the sense of some register

they get salary (and pay taxes), they study, they have health insurance, they get pension or some social support etc.

When we studied the coverage of the population by registers, we ascertained that in average each resident of Estonia has some record during a year in average in three registers. In the opposite, the non-residents have records in much less registers.

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

Residents and non-residents. Coverage by registers depending on age

01.01.2006

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100.0000

.5000

1.0000

1.5000

2.0000

2.5000

3.0000

3.5000

4.0000

residents

non-residents

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi

Using different combinations of registers for different age-groups we succeeded to elaborate the algorithm for differentiation the and non-residents having quite high Odds Ratio

OR = (p1/q1)/(p2/q2),40<OR<240

p1 is the probability that the person belongs to residents, p2 – to non-residents and q=1-p.The differentiation is most problematic for men of age-group 20—40, as they form the most mobile group of population

01.01.2006

Presentatsiooni pealkiri või esitaja nimi01.01.2006

Thank you!