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USAID/Kenya and East Africa Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research, and Economic
Development (PREPARED) Project
Presentation by Scott McCormick Fifth International Conference on Climate
Services (ICC5) February 28th, 2017
FROM DATA TO PRODUCTS
East African Community (EAC/LVBC)
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC)
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)/USGS
Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD/SERVIR)
PREPARED Project, implemented by Tetra Tech
PREPARED PROGRAM PARTNERS
Support and work through regional organizations
Promote best practices and innovations
Harmonize regional policies, protocols, practices, and tools in support of transboundary (e.g. climate change adaptation)
Build capacity of regional institutions to deliver on their mandates
Complement bilateral and multilateral programs
REGIONAL USAID PROGRAMS:
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Mainstream climate change adaptation strategies –
conduct Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation Assessment (VIA) in Lake Victoria Basin (LVB CC Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan)
Support the growth of the EAC Climate Change Coordination Unit (CCCU)
Improve access to and future management of adaptation funds – Regional Implementing Entity (RIE) accreditation for the EAC Secretariat
Improve access to and sharing of climate change information
Improving Access to Climate Information
Regional Climate Information Network (CIN)
IMPROVE CLIMATE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT Conducted Climate Information User Assessment
Assessed Service Providers’ Products
Facilitated Strategic Action Planning Workshop (April 2015) that provided framework for regional Climate Information Network (CIN)
Establishing a CIN or User Interface
Implementing Quality Service Improvement Plan (QSIP) for service providers
Develop a Climate Information Management System and Clearinghouse – EAC IKMS portal
Improving Climate Services and Products
Develop, test, train and use Climate Information Tools – GeoCLIM, VI Mapping, GeoMOD, GeoWRSI for real problems
Developing IKM Portal for Climate Information for EAC
Assisted Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) capture and digitize records from 12 temperature stations and 90 rainfall stations for over 30 years records within the Tanzania portion of the Lake Victoria Basin (14,530 records)
Piloting Quality Service Improvement Program (QSIP) with Kenya Meteorological Department, ICPAC, and RCMRD
Climate Information Services and Products
Climate Hazards Infra- Red Precipitation With stations
WHAT IS GEOCLIM?
CHIRPs Station Data
Smart Interpolation
Blended/gridded rainfall
ICPAC Training Team was developed and trained
5 Partner States trained in GeoCLIM and contributed station data to build gridded datasets (35 year database)
Merged regional GeoCLIM gridded dataset built and housed at ICPAC
Working with Regional WMO office and ICPAC to support GeoCLIM and integrate with CLIMSOFT
Using GeoCLIM for Crop Insurance pilot in Kenya
150 25
35
26 15
INTEGRATING GEOCLIM
CHIRPS Driven- Decision-Support-Tools
Climate data-
visualization and analysis tool for
“climate risk mapping”
GeoCLIM
Basic crop
modeling tool for crop monitoring, forecasting and
“agricultural risk
mapping”
GeoWRSI
Statistical forecasting & Interpretation
tools that allows for automated
“seasonal
forecasts & Early Warning with
improved spatial scale”
GeoCOF
“Statistical tool that allows for downscaling
future climate scenarios
“downscaled future climate
change scenario”
GeoMOD
“Geospatial tool
that assists technical teams and stakeholder identify
sector – specific vulnerabilities”
“geospatial vulnerability
mapping”
VI Mapping
support analysis and inform policies in the EAC region
Rainfall Variability Gridded Data Sets
Using GeoCLIM
Short-rains Annual Long-rains
Using GeoCLIM for Rainfall Trends for 35 year period for Rufiji River Basin: USAID/Tanzania WARIDI and Ministry of Water and Irrigation
No. Vulnerability Component
Factor Possible Indicator
1
Exposure Rainfall i. Annual rainfall variability (CV)
i. Occurrence (frequency) of drought and floods over the years
Temperature i. Monthly min & max temperature
i. CV for min & max 2
Sensitivity LULC i. LULC dynamic NDVI i. NDVI dynamic Human
population i. Population dynamic
Animal population
i. Level of protection (NP, GCA, NR, GR, FR)
ii. Wild animal & Livestock population dynamics
Topography i. Slope (%) Fire i. Fire frequency and
intensity 3
Adaptive capacity Protected areas i. Conservation status (conservancies, wildlife management areas, community based conservation development)
LUP i. Presence/absence of LUPs
Applying VI Mapping for Ecosystem Analyses
APPLYING CLIMATE LENS TO HYDROLOGICAL FLOWS – MARA RIVER BASIN
TMA RESCUED STATIONS
Quality Service Improvement Program (QSIP)
Vision and Values
Service Audit
Service Improvement
Recommendations, Action Planning & Monitoring
Customer Service Training
Validate Service
Improve-ment
Government of Kenya Area Yield Crop Insurance Program
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Crop season with no payout Crop season with payout
Yiel
d (k
g pe
r hec
tare
)
Reference average yield
Coverage level at 80% of average yield
Yield shortfallto be compensatedby insurance payout
Government of Kenya Area Yield Index Crop Insurance Program
Partner Key roles & responsibility MOALF/GOK Development of policy and institutional frameworks
Develop criteria for targeting farmers Develop a system for data management Provide premium support
Farmers • Register for coverage • Procure insurance premium
Insurers • Develop and distribute insurance products • File products with IRA for approval • Pay claims to insured • Arrange reinsurance
IRA Approve product Training and consumer education Coordinate certification training
Banks • Offer credit linked to insurance • Assist in insurance product distribution
Agro-dealers Sell inputs – both subsidized and non-subsidized Sell insurance linked to inputs for inputs subsidized programme
Average Rainfall
WRSI Start of Season
Rainfall Trends
Climatological Zones
Aridity
Determining Unit Areas of Insurance (UAI)
MAM Rainfall Trends Agro-Ecological Zones
Unit Areas of Insurance
Selected stations per Pilot County
From Data to Products Generally, value added products and services more
useful than station data
Products and services must be based on user demands and incentives
Need reliable data coverage for precipitation and temperature – gridded data sets
Users need to be ensured of data validity and credibility
Credibility comes from authorized and trusted meteorological organization
Asanteni
PREPARED Facebook page: htts://www.facebook.com/PREPAREDProject
PREPARED Twitter account: htts://www.twitter.com/PREPARED_EA
www.rcmrd.org www.fews.net
www.icpac.net www.eac.int