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U.S.A. and CanadaForecast Assumptions
• US economy grows 3.5% this year avg. 3.4% to 2010
• Canadian economy avg. 2.7% growth• Interest rates average 3.8% this year
rising to 4% by ‘07 to ’10 in Canada – rising to 4.5% by ’06 through ’09 in US
• C$ to remain around $0.83US over forecast period.
Alberta Forecast Assumptions
• Investment growth fuels economy• Population growth avg. 2.2% in ’06
and 2% for balance of period.• Alberta Unemployment falls to 3.9%
in ’06 & ’07 before rising somewhat • Inflation increases to 2.5% in ’06 –
falls to avg. 2.1% through to ’10
Oil & Gas Prices
• Oil US$59 /barrel WTI in ’06 dropping next year to $50 – averaging $45 for balance of forecast period
• Gas US$9.50/MMBTU in ’06 falling by $1 per year to $6.50 by ’09 then slight recovery.
WTI Oil Price $US/BBL
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Actual
1997
1998
1999 2000
2001
2002
2003 2004
2005
Investment Expenditure Components
• Residential Investment– New homes– Renovations
• Non-Residential Investment– Engineering Construction– Building Construction– Machinery & Equipment
80
100
120
140
160
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Non-residential Construction Residential Construction Employment
Medium Term Long TermHistory
Housing Starts & Household Formation (000’s)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Starts Household Formation
Non-Res. Building Construction Investment (1997
Millions)
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Industrial Building Commercial Building Institutional & Government Building
Engineering Construction Investment ($1997 Millions)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Oil Sands Investment($2005 Millions)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Are There Enough Workers?
• By late 2007 to early 2008 Alberta will not have enough skilled workers in Industrial Trades to meet the needs on projected Engineering Construction Projects
• Are there enough in Canada?
• What about the rest of the World?
Irving Oil Projects
Total Labour Force Retirements (000’s)
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Maximize our Resources
• Train more supervisors
• Bring women into the trades
• Utilize aboriginal labour
• Promote the trades to young people or underemployed
• Hire more apprentices and starters
What Else Can We Do?
• Work with other Provinces and HRSDC– Promote Red Seal and equivalency
assessments– Facilitate inter-provincial mobility– Provide upgrading & training – Identify areas with unemployed trades
Open Alberta to the World
• Open Canada to skilled trades immigration & promote Alberta as a destination
• Utilize the Provincial Nominee program• Identify sources of skilled workers in
other Countries and prepare for them• Plan for coordinated use of Temporary
Foreign Workers
