U.S. Trends and Speculations about the Future Athens GA Are recent outdoor activity trends continuing or deviating from first decade trends—NSRE? Do recent

U.S. Trends and Speculations about the Future

Athens GA

• Are recent outdoor activity trends continuing or deviating from first decade trends—NSRE?• Do recent trends in time outdoors by youth continue

or deviate from early trends observed in the National Kids Survey?• What do projections of recreation participation

show? (Forest Service’s 2010 decennial Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) national assessment)• What is projected for natural resource,

population, and recreation resource availability?• Observations and speculations about reported

trends and projections?

Athens GA Research Connections

• Connections---The current research we report here has a number of connections to past research

• Surveys---FEVS, PARVS, IMPLAN for Recreation, NRS, CUSTOMER and NVUM

• Partners have included UGA, UT, NOAA, NASPD, States, ERS, EPA, COE, NPS, NFS, BLM, CRS, …..

• Work with these partners led to the NSRE and the National Kids Survey (NKS)

• Much of the research has been tied to FS RPA national assessment

NSRE• National RDD survey – Started 1960 – Continuous since 1999– Last birthday – 140,000+

• Survey’s contain:– Core modules (recreation & demographics)– 2-3 others modules

• Data is weighted (using Census)• National, regional, state & within state strata

• September 2007 through spring 2012• Build a national baseline about kid’s time and

activities outdoors• Without a baseline, one cannot monitor trends• The National Kids Survey is a companion to the

National Survey on Recreation and the Environment The NSRE is a general population survey of 16+

• A proxy household member 20 or older represented kids 6-15

• Teens 16 to 19 interviewed directly• More than one child in household, the

one with the last birthday was selected

National Kids Survey

The RPA Assessment

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 1974 mandates that every 10 years:

national assessment of conditions/trends of natural resources

all forest and rangelands, public and private

A snapshot of current U.S. forest and rangeland conditions and trends; identifies drivers of change; 50+ scientists w. shared databases, and projects 50 years into the future (2010-2060)

The Assessment includes outdoor recreation, fish/wildlife, wilderness, forests, water, range, urban forests, and potential impacts of climate change on resources

http://www.fs.fed.us/research/rpa/2010rpa

Published research from Athens Group for the 2010 Assessment:1. County Population

Projections by scenario2. Recreation Demand Trends

and Futures in the U.S. and its regions to 2060

3. Natural Amenity Effects on Rural Population Migration in the U.S.

4. Recreation & Protected Land Resources & Futures

5. Participation Projections

Trends and Futures

What had we been reporting as Population and Recreation Trends?

Change in persons per square mile since 1990

Change in Demographics Since 1990

Age Group

United States

%change

Under 6 25,082.3 12.0

Age 6-10 19,897.3 10.2

Age 11-15 20,346.1 21.5

Age 16-24 38,373.4 13.8

Age 25-34 40,931.6 -5.2

Age 35-44 42,501.1 13.5

Age 44-54 44,372.1 77.0

Age 55-64 33,686.2 59.5

Age 65+ 38,869.7 25.0

Total 304,059 22.2

Race/ Ethnicity

United States

%change

White 199,491.5 5.9

African American 37,171.8 26.8

American Indian 2,329.0 29.6

Asian or Pacific Islander

13,672.3 95.4

2 or more races 4,451.7 .

Latino or Hispanic 46,943.6 109.8

Consistent with existing outdoor rec literature Black (neg) Native American (pos) Asian (neg) Hispanic (neg) – except for Day Hiking Educ (neg) – consumptive & motor activities Educ (pos) – nonconsumptive & challenge Income (pos) – most activities Gender – boys still play more outside Population density (neg) – crowding or urban effect? Resource availability (positive) Climate (generally negative)

Demographic Change Influences

Hells Canyon WA, Sonja and Matt Reeves, April 2012

Nature-based Outdoor Recreation Growth (number of people & annual participation days, 2000–2009)

2000 2009100

150

200

250

20

40

60

196 210

37

52

Number Who Participate (million)Number of Activity Days (billion)

Year

Mil

lion

s w

ho

par

tici

pat

e

Bil

lion

s of

day

s

+40.1%

+7.1%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

Visit Recreation And Historic Sites Viewing/Photographing NatureBackcountry Activities Motorized ActivitiesHunting And Fishing Non-Motor BoatingSnow Skiing And Boarding

Year

Mov

ing

aver

age

inde

x

Current Situation and TrendsRecent Recreation Activity Trends

http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/40453



Wildlife Watching 1996-2006 (population 16 years or older, numbers in millions)

1996 2001 200658

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

Year

Mil

lion

s

Source: U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service

What does an update show? (2005-09 and 2010-11 (NSRE))

ActivityPercent participating

2005-2009 2010-2011Walk for pleasure 85.0 84.7

Family gatherings outdoors 74.0 74.4 +

Swimming, diving, etc. 61.3 66.1 +

Sightseeing 52.7 60.8 +

View/photograph other wildlife 50.2 54.1 +

Picnicking 51.7 47.5

View or photograph birds 35.7 41.4 +

Boating 35.5 38.2 +

Bicycling 37.5 35.6

Fishing 34.2 35.0 +

Snow/ice activities 24.9 26.6 +

Developed camping 23.8 21.7

Primitive camping 14.5 12.4

What is the Outdoor Foundation Survey Showing?Outdoor Recreation Participation Report 2011

General Findings• More young people got outside• Most significant increases were females,

African Americans, and Hispanics• More adult participants than non-

participants had had physical education or outdoor experience as youth, 60 percent versus 21 percent

Source: Outdoor Foundation

From the Physical Activity Council 2012 Participation Report and the Outdoor Industry Association® (OIA):

• Outdoor activities were the only ones out of 119 to see an increase in overall participation.

• Participation in outdoor activities, like camping and hiking, rose 2 percent

• Overall participation in sports, fitness and related physical activities leveled off or slightly dropped from 2010 to 2011

• Core participants, those who participate on a regular or frequent basis, remained steady for outdoor activities

• The number of “inactives”, none of the 119 activities — rose to 68.1 million, or 24 percent

• For inactives, camping, hiking and running are among the top activities they aspire to undertake. Fishing and canoeing are also among “aspirational sports”

http://physicalactivitycouncil.com/

Participation in Passive Outdoor ActivitiesAll Americans, Ages 6 and Older

How many days in 2010 did you participate in passive outdoor activities, such as picnicking, unstructured play time, visiting a community park, kite flying, lunch outdoors at a park bench or a short walk at lunch?

57.8 days

average annual number of passive outdoor outings per outdoor participant

37.1 days

average annual number of passive outdoor outings per outdoor non-participant


Greatest One-year Change(2009-10, Age 6 through adults)

Activity Percent Change

Boardsailing/Windsurfing +43

Whitewater Kayaking +35

Bicycling +31

Telemarking (Downhill) +23

Sea Kayaking +21

Climbing +20

Scuba +15

Running/Jogging +13

Snowboarding +10


Activity20061000s

20101000s

Bicycling 39,688 42,347

Bird watching 11,070 13,339

Camping 43,123 42,301

Hiking 29,863 32,496

Hunting 15,097 14,007

Running/ Jogging 38,719 50,159

Walking for fitness 101,229 114,068

WildlifeViewing 20,294 21,025

Five-Year TrendSource: Outdoor Foundation

Activity20061000s

20101000s

Canoeing 9,154 10,553Fishing - freshwater

43,100 38,860Fishing - saltwater

12,466 11,809Kayaking–recreational

4,134 6,465Jet skiing 6,918 7,753Sailing 3,390 3,869Water skiing 5,273 4,836

Activity 2006 2010

—thousands (rounded)—

Running or jogging

38,700 50,200

Fishing 49,700 45,400

Biking 39,700 42,300

Camping 43,100 42,300

Hiking 29.900 32,500


Participation in Gateway Activities5-Year Change

Use of Information Technology in Outdoor Recreation

Technology Female Male

— percent of all participants, any age —

Computer for information 54 50

Computer or mobile technology to organize

47 44

Mobile/internet to make it easier

41 40

Share experiences with others

39 31

Mobile technology when participating

35 32

Use GPS/map applications 18 18


Activity

PercentNon-

Hispanic HispanicView/photograph natural scenery 67.8 59.3

View/photograph flowers, etc. 54.7 52.4

Sightseeing 56.0 50.4

View/photograph other wildlife 53.6 47.4

Boating 37.9 30.7

Gather mushrooms, berries, etc. 35.2 30.0

View or photograph birds 40.1 29.9

Percent participating in activities favored more by Non-Hispanics

NSRE Aug 2009 – Oct 2011

Activity

Percent participating

Non-Hispanic Hispanic Visit a beach 48.1 54.6

Swimming lakes, ponds, etc. 45.0 52.3

Visit historic sites 45.8 50.5

Bicycling 35.0 42.3

Visit a farm setting 35.4 38.8

Visit prehistoric sites 20.3 28.0

Mountain biking 17.5 21.2

Percent participating in activities favored by Hispanics

NSRE Aug 2009 – Oct 2011

And how about Kids Participation?Up? Down? What is the Trend?

• National Kids Survey (Forest Service, University of Tennessee and University of Georgia)

• Outdoor Foundation Participation Survey

In collaboration with Susan Schexnayder and Mark Fly(Associate Director and Director, Human Dimensions Research Lab, University of Tennessee)

“Are the trends reported previously continuing, or is there deviation?”

None <1/2 hour/day

~1/2 hour/day

~1 hour/day

2-3 hours >4 hours0

10

20

30

40

50

Weekday Weekend day

Per

cen

t

Percent of Youth 6 to 19 by time outdoors per day on weekdays and weekend days (2007-2012)

Day of WeekYouth who

participate in team sports

Youth who do not participate in team sports

Youth who do not participate in any

outdoor sports

Weekdays 150.7 108.9 103.0Weekend days 177.2 148.2 141.6

Team sports = playing or practicing team sports such as soccerbaseball, field hockey or footballOther sports = playing other sports such as tennis, golf, archery,or yard games

Average time outdoors in minutes per day by participation in sportsNKS

Time in places that are mostly natural

Male Female All Youth

- Percent -

None of it 30.4 59.6 42.3

About 1/4 of it 8.2 14.2 10.5

About 1/3 of it 5.3 3.5 4.8

About 1/2 of it 6.3 16.3 10.4

More than 1/2 of it 49.8 6.4 32.2Places that are mostly natural: in a woods or meadow, at a river or pond, at a nature center or on a greenway trail, or at a park.

Proportion of time outdoors spent in places that are mostly natural by genderNKS

Time in mostly natural places

6 to 9 years old

10 to 12 years old

13 to 15 years old

16 to 19 years old

- Percent -

None of it 54.63 37.50 48.72 38.89

About 1/4 to 1/2 of it 23.61 39.77 32.05 32.48

Over 1/2 of it 21.76 22.73 19.23 28.63

Places that are mostly natural: in a woods or meadow, at a river or pond, at a nature center or on a greenway trail, or at a park.

Percentage of youth by age and by amount of time in natural places

NKS

Activities

Male Female- Percent participating -

Just playing or hanging out outdoors 83.3 78.6

Biking, jogging, walking, skate boarding, etc. 79.5 76.7

Mobile devices outdoors---Listening to music, watching movies, networking, etc.

52.4 58.2

Reading, studying while outdoors 42.8 52.2

Attending camps, field trips, outdoor classes 34.8 36.5

Playing or practicing team sports 60.1 33.7

Swimming, diving, snorkeling, etc. 29.5 30.9

Playing other sports 37.9 30.0

Hiking, camping, fishing, etc. 36.3 26.5

Bird watching, wildlife viewing, etc. 30.1 25.6

Riding motorcycles, ATVs, other off road vehicles

28.7 19.9

Percentages of Youth 6-19 by activity and gender

Other activities surveyed include boating, jet skiing, water skiing, rowing, kayaking, canoeing, surfing, snow skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing, etc.

NKS

Time outdoors

6-9 year old

females

16-19 years old females

All ages & both genders

- Percent -None 5.0 6.7 5.2<1/2 hour/day 9.3 15.9 5.02-3 hours/day 25.1 29.5 25.7>4 hours/day 42.6 25.3 45.5

Females with highest percentages spending less than 1/2 hour, and lowest percentages spending 2

or more hours on weekend daysNKS

Time outdoors

6-9 year old

females

13-15 years old

females

16-19 years old

females

All ages & both genders

- Percent -None 17.8 3.0 1.1 4.6<1/2 hour/day 10.6 13.9 13.3 6.02-3 hours/day 27.6 34.9 32.3 34.8>4 hours/day 13.8 19.3 15.2 23.7

Age and sex with highest percentages spending less than 1/2 hour, and lowest percentages spending 2 or

more hours outdoors on weekdaysNKS

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120

10

20

30

40

50

None 1/2-1 hour/day2-3 hours/day >4 hours/day

Years

Per

cent

Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012. NONE = 0 to less than ½ hour per day.

Week days — Trend in percentage of youth 6-19 by time outdoors across 4 data collection periods

NKS

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120

10

20

30

40

50

None 1/2-1 hour/day2-3 hours/day >4 hours/day

Years

Perc

ent

Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012. NONE = 0 to less than ½ hour per day.

Weekend days — Trend in percentage of youth 6-19 by amount of time outdoors on weekend days across 4 data collection periodsNKS

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120

102030405060708090

100

Weekend >2 hours/day Week day >2 hours/day

Years

Perc

ent

Data collection periods were September 2007 to July 2008; August 2008 to April 2009; May 2009 to September 2010; and October 2010 to March 2012.

Trend in percentage of youth 6-19 spending time outdoors on weekend and on week days by time periodNKS

Footnote---Aiken and Harris (FWS) found a 15-year modest up-trend in youth hunting participation

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120

20406080

100120140160180200

Male Week days Male Weekend daysFemale Week days Female Weekend days

Years

Ave

rage

Min

utes


Trend in average minutes outdoors per day, weekdays and weekend days across 4 time periods

NKS

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-1202468

101214161820

Males Females

Years

Hou

rs p

er W

eek


Trend in average hours of per week outdoors per person by males and females across 4 time periods

NKSNKS

ActivitiesPercent of 16-19 years old

Mobile devices for messaging, music, movies, etc. 68.6Just playing or hanging out outdoors 67.2Reading, studying while outdoors 56.2Attending camps, field trips, outdoor classes 34.1Bird watching, wildlife viewing, etc. 21.7

Outdoor activities offering potentials for connecting with late teenage youthNKS

Youth Participation—Outdoor Foundation Survey

• Participation by 6-12 year olds did not fall• Adolescents and young adults grew 1 percent• Female participation grew, those 18-24 by 5

percent• Parents with children participate more, 52

percent versus 46 percent without children• Overall, participation rates for young people

stopped falling because• 6-12 year olds remained level• 13-17 year olds grew from 60 to 62 percent


Motivation HispanicAfrican-

American Asian Caucasian— percent of ages 6 to 17 —

It’s Cool 54 45 40 52

Exercise 37 34 31 46

Something new

36 33 40 31

Household participates

35 33 34 46

What Motivates Youth Participants

to Get Outside?


Photo by Babs McDonald 2012

Youth Use of I/T

Technology

Technology 6-12 13-17 18-24

— percent —Use computer for outdoor activity information

26 40 62

Use technologies to plan

24 42 59

Share experiences 20 48 52

Use mobile technologies when participating

20 45 49



Forecasts---Recreation DemandJ.M. Bowker, H. Ken Cordell, Carter Betz, and Stan

Zarnoch, Southern Research Station

Ashley Askew and Lynn Seymour, UGA Dept of Statistics

2010 RPA Assessment Roll-Out Briefing

ObjectivesDevelop household-based models of recreation

participation and consumption (days)17 popular outdoor activities or aggregatesNational level Forecast activity participation and consumption

2008 - 20603 RPA Future Scenarios with climate alternatives:

Population growthDemographic changeEconomic growthLand use change…and 4 Climate alternatives for each

DataNSRE FS/UGA/UT (1999-2009)

90,000+ potential observationsHousehold-based Post-sample weightedDemographic variables

RPA Supply variables Recreation variables (various sources compiled by

Cordell FS, NORSIS, wilderness.net, etc.) Dave Wear RPA land use projections for A1B, A2, B2

RPA Forecasts and Woods & PooleEconomic dataPopulation Forecasts (Zarnoch and Cordell) Climate Data---Linda Joyce RPA Prism, Various

Simulations 2010 RPA Assessment Roll-Out Briefing


DaysModel Step

Hurdle Model Prob part * mean days per participant E(Daysk ) = Probk * Daysk (Days>0)

SD= age, ethnicity, gender, education, income

Q= relevant supply, e.g., forest land w/i 100C= climate variables (temp, aridity index, etc)

Yields per capita days equations (Daysik)

Simulation StepDayskt based on projected SDkt Qkt Ckt

Combine Dayskt & participating populationkt

Create index based on predicted totalsScale NSRE baselines (2005-2009 avg.) by index

Participation Model Influences Consistent with existing outdoor rec literature

Black (neg)Native American (pos)Asian (neg)Hispanic (neg) – except for Day HikingEduc (neg) – consumptive & motor activitiesEduc (pos) – nonconsumptive & challenge Income (pos) – most activitiesGender – boys still play more outsidePopulation density (neg) – crowding or urban effect?Resource availability (positive)Climate (generally negative)

Findings—across all scenarios and climate alts.

Participation declining on per-capita basisParticipants increasing (pop change > per-capita)Days similar storyMore total recreation days and participants


Highest growth rates for participant numbers :

Developed skiing (50 to 127 percent)

Equestrian activities (44 to 110 percent)

Challenge activities (47 to 90 percent)D

Day hiking (45 to 88 percent)

Swimming (47 to 85 percent).


Averaged over all RPA scenarios and climate alts. greatest total days increase over the next 50 years: Nature viewing (13,597 to 14,635 million) Swimming (2,298 to 2,446 million) Day hiking (1,366 to 1,470 million) Developed site use (1,185 to 1,294 million) Birding (1,141 to 1,246 million).

Loss to least total days increase over next 50 years: Snowmobiling (-27 to 16 million) Hunting (-8 to 14 million) Undeveloped skiing (-5 to 29 million) Challenge activities (86 to 89 million) Floating (83 to 128 million).

Forecasts---U.S. Natural Resources

• Land development will continue to threaten the integrity of natural ecosystems.

• Climate change will alter natural ecosystems and affect their ability to provide goods and services.

• Competition for goods and services from natural ecosystems will increase.

• Geographic variation in resource responses to drivers of change will require regional and local strategies to address resource management issues.


Urban and developed land use area increases across all scenarios.

Forest and rangeland use area declines in all scenarios, as do cropland and pasture use areas.

Land use change by RPA scenario2010-2060, conterminous United States

FYI---These forecasts are at county scale


Change in nonfederal forest area, 2010-2060, conterminous United States

Forests are most impacted by urban and developed uses, with up to 8% of the forest land base in the South lost by 2060.

Public Land Threatened by Development

Housing growth in and near NFS and NPS lands, 1940-2000.

Low density development threatens ecosystem integrity.

Probability of annual

water shortage

Climate Change

2060, A2-CGCM Current

2060, A2-MIROC

The vulnerability of the U.S. water supply will increase, especially in the Southwest and Great Plains.

Changes in temperature, precipitation, habitat quality, and habitat area will cause further stress on terrestrial wildlife habitat and affect the ability of species to migrate.

Climate change will have broad, lasting effects

Mean Terrestrial Climate Stress Index based on the average across alternative futures.

Forecasts of resource availability per capita by 2060

Instead of this table, use the new one Shela is

creating using U.S. totals from tables 7.2 – 7.10 in

the Supply GTR

Type of ResourceTotal acres

(thousand), 2008Per capita acres,

2008Projected per capita

acres, 2060Proportion of 2008 projected for 2060

Federal and State Park Land 627,319.2 2.06 1.40 0.68Total Water Area 164,252.7 0.54 0.37 0.68Non-Federal Forest 355,507.5 1.27 0.80 0.63Non-Federal Open Range and Pasture 497,090.9 1.70 1.11 0.66Ocean/Great Lakes Coastal Area 709,507.4 2.33 1.59 0.68Mountains 379,817.3 1.25 0.85 0.68Snow County Area 580,893.0 1.92 1.30 0.68Designated Federal Land 157,887.5 0.52 0.35 0.68

Businesses ( 2007) Businesses/capita Businesses/capita Proportion in 2060Recreation Businesses 267,920.0 0.88 0.60 0.68

Summary---U.S. Trends and Futures

Athens GA

• Are recent outdoor activity trends continuing or deviating from first decade trends--NSRE• Do recent trends in time outdoors by youth continue

or deviate from early trends observed in the National Kids Survey• What do projections of recreation participation

show? (Forest Service’s 2010 decennial Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) national assessment)

• What is projected for natural resource population and recreation resource availability• Observations and speculations about reported

trends and projections

Nature-based Outdoor Recreation Growth (number of people & annual participation days, 2000–2009

2000 2009100

150

200

250

20

40

60

196 210

37

52

Number Who Participate (million)Number of Activity Days (billion)

Year

Mil

lion

s w

ho

par

tici

pat

e

Bil

lion

s of

day

s

+40.1%

+7.1%

What does an update show? (2005-09 and 2010-11 (NSRE))

ActivityPercent participating

2005-2009 2010-2011Walk for pleasure 85.0 84.7

Family gatherings outdoors 74.0 74.4 +

Swimming, diving, etc. 61.3 66.1 +

Sightseeing 52.7 60.8 +

View/photograph other wildlife 50.2 54.1 +

Picnicking 51.7 47.5

View or photograph birds 35.7 41.4 +

Boating 35.5 38.2 +

Bicycling 37.5 35.6

Fishing 34.2 35.0 +

Snow/ice activities 24.9 26.6 +

Developed camping 23.8 21.7

Primitive camping 14.5 12.4

What is the Outdoor Foundation Survey Showing?Outdoor Recreation Participation Report 2011

General Findings• More young people got outside• Most significant increases were females,

African Americans, and Hispanics• More adult participants than non-

participants had had physical education or outdoor experiences as youth, 60 percent versus 21 percent


Activity20061000s

20101000s

Bicycling 39,688 42,347

Birding 11,070 13,339

Camping 43,123 42,301

Hiking 29,863 32,496

Hunting 15,097 14,007

Running/

Jogging 38,719 50,159

Walking 101,229 114,068

Wildlife

Viewing 20,294 21,025

Five-Year TrendSource: Outdoor Foundation

Activity20061000s

20101000s

Canoeing 9,154 10,553Fishing - freshwater 43,100 38,860Fishing - saltwater 12,466 11,809Kayaking–recreational 4,134 6,465Jet skiing 6,918 7,753Sailing 3,390 3,869Water skiing 5,273 4,836

None <1/2 hour/day

~1/2 hour/day

~1 hour/day

2-3 hours >4 hours0

10

20

30

40

50

Weekday Weekend day

Per

cen

t

Percent of Youth 6 to 19 by time outdoors per day on weekdays and weekend days (2007-2012)

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Weekend >2 hours/day Week day >2 hours/day

Years

Per

cent


Trend in percentage of youth 6-19 spending time outdoors on weekend and on week days by time periodNKS

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-1202468

101214161820

Males Females

Years

Hou

rs p

er W

eek


Trend in average hours of per week outdoors per person by males and females across 4 time periods

NKSNKS

Youth Use of I/T

Technology

Technology 6-12 13-17 18-24

— percent —Use computer for outdoor activity information

26 40 62

Use technologies to plan

24 42 59

Share experiences 20 48 52

Use mobile technologies when participating

20 45 49




Participation declining on per-capita basisParticipants increasing (pop change > per-capita)Days similar storyMore total recreation days and participants


Averaged over all RPA scenarios and climate alts. greatest total demand increase over the next 50 years: Nature viewing (13,597 to 14,635 million) Swimming (2,298 to 2,446 million) Day hiking (1,366 to 1,470 million) Developed site use (1,185 to 1,294 million) Birding (1,141 to 1,246 million).

Forecasts for the U. S. • Land development will continue to threaten the integrity

of natural ecosystems.

• Climate change will alter natural ecosystems and affect their ability to provide goods and services.

• Competition for goods and services from natural ecosystems will increase.

• Geographic variation in resource responses to drivers of change will require regional and local strategies to address resource management issues.

• Recreation resources per capita is projected to be about 2/3 what it/they are now by 2060.

• Yet, demand will rise substantially by that year.

Published research from Athens Group for the 2010 Assessment:1. County Population

Projections by scenario2. Recreation Demand Trends

and Futures in the U.S. to 2060

3. Natural Amenity Effects on Rural Population Migration in the U.S.

4. Recreation & Protected Land Resources & Futures

5. Participation Projections

Trends and Futures

The RPA Assessment

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 1974 mandates that every 10 years:

national assessment of conditions/trends of natural resources

all forest and rangelands, public and private

A snapshot of current U.S. forest and rangeland conditions and trends; identifies drivers of change; 50+ scientists w. shared databases, and projects 50 years into the future (2010-2060)

The Assessment includes outdoor recreation, fish/wildlife, wilderness, forests, water, range, urban forests, and potentials of climate change on resources

http://www.fs.fed.us/research/rpa/2010rpa

Snake River, Hells Canyon, Matt Reeves, 2012END

Documents

U.S. Trends and Speculations about the Future Athens GA Are recent outdoor activity trends continuing or deviating from first decade trends—NSRE? Do recent