US Treasury Yields Comex Gold and Nymex Crude Oil The

8/14/2019 US Treasury Yields Comex Gold and Nymex Crude Oil The

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US Treasury YieldsComex Gold and Nymex Crude OilThe US Dollar vs the Japanese Yen, the Euro, and British PoundThe Major Equity AveragesThe ValuEngine Stock of the Day

Suppo rt@Val uEngi ne.c om


2/11

Mark et Overv iewOctober 27, 2009

Daily 10-Year Gold Crude Oil EuroJapanese

YenThe Dow Nasdaq

10/26/2009 3.554 1039.2 78.66 1.4864 92.17 9,868 2142

10/23/2009 3.473 1055.3 79.78 1.4997 92.07 9,972 2154

Daily Chg 0.081 -16.1 -1.12 -0.0133 0.1 -104 -12

12/31/2008 2.227 870.1 40.42 1.4384 87.45 8,776 1577

YTD Change 1.327 169.1 38.24 0.048 4.72 1092 565

Supports 3.677 M 991.7 S 72.71 W 1.4787 Q 88.49 W 9,750 A 1938 M

4.000 S 978.8 M 68.81 A 1.4036 A 82.72 Q 9,306 M 1635 Q

4.176 S 891.0 A 66.51 A 6,546 Q 1506 A

Pivots 1043.3 D 2144 D

Resistances 3.466 D 1091.9 W 82.98 M 1.4956 D 93.23 D 9,969 D 2183 M

3.332 W 1094.4 Q 83.16 Q 1.5022 M 99.80 M 9,973 W 2188 W

2.753 Q 1101.9 S 83.46 D 1.5129 W 105.58 A 10,012 A 2227 S

2.640 A 1.5394 S 105.85 S

Five-Week 3.425 1017.8 73.24 1.4669 91.53 9,699 2093

Five- Month 3.318 943.8 67.23 1.4068 94.80 9,089 1895

Int Sent 7.1 / 6.8 8.1 / 8.3 7.3 / 7.6 8.4 / 8.6 1.9 / 2.2 9.0 / 9.0 8.9 / 8.8

LT Sent 4.7 / 4.4 7.4 / 7.7 2.7 / 3.1 4.2 / 5.1 3.5 / 3.3 3.2 / 3.9 3.8 / 4.7

Supports Levels that are likely to hold on weakness.Pivots Levels that could be tested as magnets.Resistances Levels that are likely to restrain strength (D-Daily, W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly,S-Semiannual and A-Annual)Five-Week The five-week modified moving average.Five-Month The five-month modified moving average.Int Sent 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading on a scale of 0.0 and 10.0.LT Sent 12x3x3 monthly slow stochastic reading. (Below 2.0 is oversold, above 8.0 is overbought.Rising is positive. Declining is negative)Weekly Chart Profiles Above the Five-Week with rising Int Sent is positive. Below the Five-Weekwith declining Int Sent is negative.Monthly Chart Profiles Above the Five-Month with rising LT Sent is positive. Below the Five-Month with declining LT Sent is negative.


3/11

ValuEngine Sec t or Overv iew

Sector Change MTD YTD ValuationLast 12-MReturn

P/ERatio

Basic Industries -1.38% 6.22% 68.68% 17.33% overvalued 75.07% 26.97

Capital Goods -1.34% 5.88% 39.73% 16.76% overvalued 32.71% 20.94

Consumer Durables -1.12% 5.94% 65.43% 3.52% overvalued 42.88% 28.38

Consumer Non-Durables -1.00% 4.92% 50.03% 12.93% overvalued 40.65% 22.28

Consumer Services -1.57% 4.84% 62.50% 7.68% overvalued 51.34% 22.64

Energy -1.92% 8.65% 45.16% 20.86% overvalued 33.03% 19.82

Finance -0.83% 1.97% 25.37% 3.97% overvalued 15.92% 19.16

Health Care -1.35% 2.05% 58.55% 8.26% undervalued 41.92% 19.77

Public Utilities -1.22% 3.74% 21.11% 2.39% undervalued 35.90% 15.81

Technology -1.00% 3.37% 67.09% 2.21% undervalued 48.55% 26.64

Transportation -2.01% 2.76% 23.71% 10.00% overvalued 19.82% 16.94

ValuEngine Universe Valuat ion

Stocks Undervalued 52.2%

Stocks Overvalued 47.8%

Stocks Undervalued by 20% 27.07%

Stocks Overvalued by 20% 26.95%

The ValuEngine Universe consists of over 4500 US, foreign, and ADR tickers traded onUS markets. Normal ranges for universe over and undervaluation typically run between 35-65%. Of course, readings in excess of this range are no guarantee that a correction is imminentand extreme conditions may persist for a very long time.


4/11

10-Year Note Monthly and semiannual supports are 3.677, 4.000 and 4.176 with daily and weeklyresistances at 3.466 and 3.332.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold Semiannual and monthly supports are $991.7 and $978.8 with a daily pivot at $1043.3,and weekly, quarterly and semiannual resistances at $1091.9, $1094.4 and $1,101.9.



5/11

Nymex Crude Oil Weekly and annual supports are $72.71, $68.81 and $66.51 with monthly,quarterly and daily resistances at $82.98, $83.16 and $83.46.


The Euro Quarterly and annual supports are 1.4787 and 1.4036 with daily, monthly, weekly andsemiannual resistances at 1.4956, 1.5022, 1.5129, and 1.5394.



6/11

The Dollar versus Japanese Yen Weekly and quarterly supports are 88.49 and 82.72 with daily andmonthly resistance at 93.23 and 99.80.


The British Pound Weekly support is 1.6182 with daily and monthly resistances at 1.6822 and1.6833.



7/11

The Major Equi t y Averages

26-Oct YTD 2008 52 Wk Cycle Date of % High % Off % Off

Market Price Gains Closes Lows Highs Highs To Lows Lows Highs

The Dow 9,868.00 12.4% 8,776.00 6,469.95 14,198.10 Oct-07 -54.4% 52.5% 30.5%

S&P 500 1,067.00 18.1% 903.30 666.92 1,576.06 Oct-07 -57.7% 60.0% 32.3%

Nasdaq 2,142.00 35.8% 1,577.00 1,265.52 2,861.51 Oct-07 -55.8% 69.3% 25.1%

Utilities 372.71 0.5% 370.76 288.66 555.71 Jan-08 -48.1% 29.1% 32.9%

Transports 3,773.00 6.7% 3,537.00 2,134.21 5,536.57 May-08 -61.5% 76.8% 31.9%

Russell 2000 593.68 18.9% 499.45 342.59 862.00 Jul-07 -60.3% 73.3% 31.1%Semis (SOX) 317.44 49.6% 212.17 167.55 549.39 Jul-07 -69.5% 89.5% 42.2%

Dow Annual, monthly and quarterly supports are 9,750, 9,306 and 6,546 with daily, weekly andannual resistances at 9,969, 9,973 and 10,012.

S&P 500 Monthly support is 1033.3 with daily and weekly resistances at 1077.1 and 1085.6. Annualsupports are 967.1 and 910.8. Quarterly support is 688.9 with semiannual resistance at 1237.6.

NASDAQ Monthly support is 1938 with a daily pivot at 2144, and weekly and monthly resistances at2188 and 2183. Annual and quarterly supports are 1506 and 1408 with semiannual resistances at 2227and 2296.

Dow Utilities Monthly and quarterly supports are 337.79 and 336.94 with a weekly pivot at 374.16and daily resistance at 382.60.

Dow Transports Monthly and quarterly supports are 3615 and 3158 with daily, weekly, and annualresistances at 3816, 3994, 4037 and 4199.

Russell 2000 Monthly support is 589.03 with a daily pivot at 594.28, and weekly annual andsemiannual resistances at 618.79, 670.80 and 695.55.

The SOX Daily support is 311.69 with weekly, semiannual and monthly resistances at 325.97, 337.39and 343.37.


8/11

Bear Track s Dow:The Dow is well below its 200-week simple moving average at 11,212 with overbought

momentum. The weekly chart stays POSITIVE but OVERBOUGHT on a close this week above its5-week modified moving average at 9,730. Note the ascending wedge on the weekly chart, as thatpattern typically is broken to the downside. The Dow is well below its 120-month simple movingaverage at 10,478, which is a multi-year Bear Market. The monthly chart is POSITIVE with the 38.2%Retracement line as a pivot at 9,389.




9/11

ValuEngine St oc k o f t he Day

Ryland Group (RYL)Ryland Group (RYL) is rated a SELL according to ValuEngine with fair value at $20.43, whichmakes the stock slightly undervalued. The Ryland Group, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the UnitedStates. The company also provides mortgage-finance and related services.

Analysis The daily chart for Ryland shows declining MOJO, with the 21-day simple moving averageat $21.08 and the 200-day as support at $18.89. My weekly value level is $19.55 with a monthly pivotat $22.26 and quarterly risky level at $23.46. Ryland is a short position in the ValuTrader modelportfolio from $24.09 on September 17th.


Ticker Company NameMkt

PriceFair

ValueForecast 1-

Mon Retn(%)Forecast 1-Yr Retn(%)

Last 12-MonRetn (%)

5-Yr AvgRetn (%)

P/ERatio

RYL RYLAND GROUP 20.08 20.43 -1.69 -16.33 33.35 -14.09 n/a


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US Treasury Yields Comex Gold and Nymex Crude Oil The