U.S. Trade Overview, 2013

Stephanie Han & Natalie Soroka Trade and Economic Analysis

Industry and Analysis Department of Commerce

International Trade Administration

October 2014

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Change in Real GDP

forecast United StatesEmerging and developing economies Advanced economies

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Change in Export Volume

• Globally, trade accounts for more than 60% of gross domestic product (GDP). • Trade volume growth typically outpaces real GDP growth, and is expected to do so

over the next five years.

• The U.S. is the largest exporter in the world for commercial services and the second largest for merchandise.

• While below the world average, U.S. export growth (by volume) exceeded the average for advanced economies in 2013 and is expected to continue to do so in 2014. Future world exports are expected to be largely driven by growth in emerging economies.

3.1% World export volume

growth in 2013 U.S. export volume growth, 2013 2.7%

10% U.S. Share of world

exports in 2013 (by value)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; WTO International Trade Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

ChinaUnited States

GermanyJapan

United KingdomFrance

NetherlandsKorea, Republic ofHong Kong, China

ItalyRussian Federation

BelgiumCanada

SingaporeIndia

Billions of current US dollars

Top Exporters, 2013

Merchandise Exports

Commercial Services Exports

-11

-6

-1

4

9

14

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Perc

enta

ge C

hang

e fr

om P

revi

ous

Year

Percentage Change in World Trade and Output

Forecast Change in GDP (constant prices) Change in Total Trade Volume

Trade: A Vital Part of the Global Economy

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

• Total trade (exports and imports) accounted for 30% of U.S. GDP in 2013. • U.S. exports totaled a record $2.3 trillion in 2013, up 2.9% from 2012 and 44.0% from

2009 when the global crisis caused a worldwide drop in exports. • In 2013, exports were up $63.7 billion from 2012, with goods exports increasing by

$31.1 billion and services exports increasing by $32.6 billion. • The U.S. trade balance improved by $61.2 billion from 2012 to 2013, driven by the

increase in both goods and services exports and a drop in goods imports.

• Historically, exports have grown as a share of U.S. GDP. However, in 2013 exports contributed to 13.5% of U.S. GDP, a slight drop from 2012. That year, increased domestic investment and reduced goods imports played a greater role in U.S. GDP.

• Trade in goods drives the majority of both exporting and importing activity.

96% Total U.S. export

growth 2004‒2013

Trade Balance -$476

Total Exports

$2,280

Total Imports

$2,757

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Billions of US dollars

U.S. Trade in Goods and Services

Recession

$5 trillion

Total value of U.S. trade in 2013

Goods 83%

Services 17%

Imports

Goods 70%

Services 30%

Exports

Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis

11.0

12.4

13.6 13.6 13.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Shar

e of

GD

P (P

erce

ntag

e)

U.S. Exports as a Share of GDP

Personal consumption

-0.1

Private domestic

investment 0.5

Exports -0.1

Imports 0.6

Government -0.9

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

Perc

enta

ge P

oint

Cha

nge

in S

hare

Change in Share of U.S. GDP 2012-2013

U.S. Trade in 2013

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

• Exports of goods and services supported 11.3 million jobs in 2013, an increase of 1.6 million jobs since 2009.

• In 2013, every billion dollars of U.S. exports supported nearly 5,600 jobs.

• Nearly 305,000 U.S. companies exported goods in 2012 (latest data available), a record-high. Small- and medium-sized exporters (SMEs) accounted for 98% of exporters and 33% of the known export value.

• 16% of SMEs and 55% of large company exporters in 2012 exported to five or more countries.

• Companies that exported to five or more countries accounted for 88.6% of the known export value.

9.7 10.2 10.9 11.1 11.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Millions of Jobs Supported by Exports

ServicesGoods

SMEs 297,995

Large Companies

6,872

2012 Number of Exporters, by Company Size

Source: Census Bureau; Rasmussen and Johnson, 2013, “Jobs Supported by Exports 2013: An Update.” U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration

98% U.S. exporters that employ fewer than

500 employees

1.6 million more jobs supported by

exports since 2009

SMEs 449,400 Large

Companies 930,283

2012 Export Value, by Company Size

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Large Companies

SMEs

2012 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Known Export Value

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Large Companies

SMEs

2012 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Exporting Companies

1 market 2-4 markets 5-9 markets 10-24 markets 25-49 markets 50+ markets

Trade Supports U.S. Jobs

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

• Total U.S. goods trade was $3.8 trillion in 2013, up 47% from 2009. • Manufactured goods accounted for 87% of U.S. merchandise exports and 81% of

merchandise imports in 2013. • Goods imports fell by nearly $8 billion in 2013, the first time since 2009. Meanwhile,

goods exports rose by $33.9 billion, resulting in a $41.9 billion improvement in the trade deficit.

• Transportation equipment was the dominant export category in 2013, totaling $258.3 billion, or 16.3% of total goods exports.

• Transportation also showed the largest dollar growth among goods exports in 2013, increasing by $16.9 billion or 7.0% from 2012.

• Petroleum imports fell again in 2013, with the quantity of crude oil imports reaching the lowest point since 1995. The average annual price of crude oil also fell in 2013, dropping by 4.0% to $96.94.

• In 2013, the quantity of crude oil produced within the United States exceeded that of imports for the first time since the early 1990s.

Computer & Electronic Products

15.5%

Transportation Equipment

14.7%

Oil & Gas 12.6%

Chemicals 8.6%

Machinery, Except Electrical

6.5%

All Other Merchandise

42.1%

Merchandise Imports, 2013

Transportation Equipment

16.3%

Computer & Electronic Products

13.0%

Chemicals 12.6%

Machinery 9.5%

Petroleum & Coal Products

7.6%

All Other Merchandise

41.0%

Merchandise Exports, 2013

Merchandise Trade Highlights

Exports of petroleum products were a record-

high in 2013

Source: Census Bureau; Energy Information Administration

$2.27 trillion

$1.58 trillion

-$689 billion -1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Billi

ons

of c

urre

nt U

S do

llars

U.S. Merchandise Trade

Goods ImportsGoods ExportsGoods Trade Balance

32.4% Growth in real

U.S. goods exports since 2009

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

U.S. Domestic Production of Crude

Oil (EIA)

7,893

U.S. Imports of Crude Oil (EIA)

7,759

Unit Price of Crude Imports (Census)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Unit Price (dollars per barrel) Th

ousa

nds

of B

arre

ls a

Day

Recession

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

Europe

Western Hemisphere

Asia & Pacific

EU

Other Europe

Canada

Mexico Brazil

Other Western

Hemisphere

Japan

China

Korea

Other Asia & Pacific

Africa

• Services exports hit a record high in 2013, up 5% from 2012 and 34% from 2009. • Despite a slight decline in 2009, services exports have risen faster than services imports

each year, leading to a growing services trade surplus. • Services accounted for 30% of total U.S. exports in 2013.

• Travel was the largest services export in 2013, accounting for 25% of overall services exports.

• Travel also accounted for the largest share of U.S. services imports in 2013. • From 2012 to 2013, financial services showed the fastest growth, with exports

increasing by 9.7%.

• U.S. services exports largely go to markets in Europe, followed by Asia and Latin America.

• Since 2009, services exports have grown by 121% to China, 40% to NAFTA partners, and 18% to EU countries.

Services Trade Highlights

The U.S. has held a services trade

surplus since 1971

Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Services trade surplus hit a record high in 2013

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$687.4

$462.1

$225.3

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Billi

ons

of U

S do

llars

Services Exports

Services Imports

Balance

$173.1

$129.2 $123.4

$87.3 $84.1

$33.4

$24.5 $16.3 $16.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Billi

ons

of U

S do

llars

Services Exports, 2013

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

• U.S. exports span more than 230 destinations, with Canada and Mexico accounting for more than one-third of the total.

• Canada was the top export market in 2013, at $301.6 billion. Canada was followed by Mexico, ($226.1 billion), China ($121.7 billion), Japan ($65.2 billion), and Germany ($47.4 billion).

• Among top markets, China showed the highest dollar growth compared to 2012, up over $11 billion.

• Of markets receiving more than $500 million in U.S. goods exports, potential TPP partner Brunei showed the fastest growth in 2013 by percent change, up 254 percent compared to the previous year.

• While a smaller share of overall trade, U.S. goods exports to markets in South and Central America have shown the most rapid growth since 2009, up nearly 77%. The trade surplus with this region was a record high in 2013.

Top Export Markets in 2013

U.S. export growth to Free Trade Partners

2009‒2013

57%

More than one-third of U.S. merchandise exports went to Canada & Mexico

1/3

Source: Census Bureau

Canada $301.6

EU-28 $262.2

Mexico $226.1

China $121.7

Japan $65.2

Brazil $44.1

Hong Kong $42.3

Korea $41.7

Singapore $30.7

Switzerland $26.8

Australia $26.1

Taiwan $25.5

United Arab Emirates $24.4

India $21.8

Saudi Arabia $19.0

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Perc

enta

ge C

hang

e, 2

012-

2013

Top Export Markets and Growth, 2013

Circle size indicates 2013 export value Dollar values shown in billions of US dollars

16%

NEI Markets

44%

Trans-Pacific Partnership

46%

FTA Partners

Share of 2013 Goods Exports by Region

17%

TTIP

2%

CAFTA-DR

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

Global Trade and Economy • World Development Indicators, World Bank

Released June 2013

• IMF World Economic Outlook Released April 2014

• WTO International Trade Statistics 2012 Released April 2014

• National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 2014

U.S. Trade • Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau

Released June 2014

• National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 2014

• “Jobs Supported by Exports 2013: An Update,” Martin Johnson and Chris Rasmussen, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis, International Trade Administration Released February 2014

• Profile of U.S. Exporting Companies, Census Bureau Released April 2014

U.S. Merchandise Trade • Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau

Released June 2014

• Energy Information Administration Released July 2014

U.S. Services Trade • Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau

Released June 2014

• International Services Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released June 2014

U.S. Export Markets • Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau

Released June 2014

Source Notes

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

International Trading & Economic Regions

EU-28: Trans-Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership

(TTIP)

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Free Trade Agreement

(FTA) Partners

Australia

Brunei

Australia

Austria

Chile

Bahrain

Belgium

Malaysia

Canada

Bulgaria

New Zealand

Chile

Croatia

Peru

Colombia

Cyprus

Singapore

Costa Rica

Czech Republic

Vietnam

Dominican Republic

Denmark

El Salvador

Estonia

Central America-Dominican

Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR)

Guatemala

Finland

Honduras

France

Israel

Germany

Costa Rica

Jordan

Greece

Dominican Republic

Mexico

Hungary

El Salvador

Morocco

Ireland

Guatemala

Nicaragua

Italy

Honduras

Oman

Latvia

Nicaragua

Panama

Lithuania

Peru

Luxembourg

National Export Initiative (NEI)

Priority Markets Singapore

Malta

South Korea

Netherlands

Brazil

Poland

China

Portugal

Colombia

Romania

India

Slovakia

Indonesia

Slovenia

Saudi Arabia

Spain

South Africa

Sweden

Turkey

United Kingdom

Vietnam

Region Definitions

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

U.S. Trade Statistics:

• TradeStats Express – National and state-level trade data http://tse.export.gov

• Jobs Supported by Exports – National and state-level detail http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/employment

• Exporter Database – Export data by company size http://tse.export.gov/edb

Local Area Data:

• Metropolitan Export Series – Export data by metro area http://tse.export.gov/metro

• Metro Report – Reports and data on metropolitan areas http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/metroreport

• State Reports – Short statistical report for each state http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/statereports/

Additional Reports and Information:

• Reference Information – Trade Data Basics, Reference Room, and more http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/referenceinfo

• Trade Statistics – Access all statistical reports and databases http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/tradestatistics

• Trade Policy and Analysis – Home page for Trade Policy and Analysis http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian

Comments and questions should be directed to:

Natalie Soroka Office of Trade and Economic Analysis

Trade Policy and Analysis, Industry and Analysis International Trade Administration

Natalie.Soroka@trade.gov T 202.482.5839

For More Information:

This page intentionally left blank

The International Trade Administration’s mission is to create prosperity by strengthening the competitiveness of U.S. industry, promoting trade and investment, and ensuring fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements.

Trade and Economic Analysis Industry and Analysis 1401 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20230

T 202.482.5839 F 202.482.4614 www.trade.gov/mas/ian

Octob

er 2

014