US-Taiwan-China Relations in a New Era

National Press Foundation

October 14, 2009

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Drew ThompsonDirector of China Studies and Starr Senior FellowThe Nixon CenterWashington, DC Tel: 202-887-1000Email: DThompson@nixoncenter.org

2009

• Ma Ying-jeou’s election and a new era

• Cross-Strait Dynamics

• “One China”

• Beijing’s Hopes and Fears

• US relations with Taiwan and China

• Is a “Win-Win-Win” Partnership Possible?

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A New Era

• Ma Ying-jeou’s election creates new opportunities

• Campaigned on a “modus vivendi” approach to cross-straits relations

• Three nos - “no unification, no independence, no use of force”

• Boost Cross-Strait Economic Ties• Ma’s balancing act; improve ties with the

PRC, maintain Taiwan’s de facto independence

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“One China,” but whose?

• 60 years of ambiguity giving way to consensus building

• “1992 Consensus“ and “One China with Different Interpretations”

• A “special relationship”

• Three links, ECFA

• Confidence building measures to come

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Beijing’s Hopes and Fears

• Beijing is pleased to see the KMT, worried about the future• Granting concessions, providing international space

• Hu Jintao’s Four Points –– Never sway in adhering to the one-China principle– Never give up efforts to seek peaceful reunification– Never change the principle of placing hope in the Taiwan people– Never compromise in opposing “Taiwan independence”

Hu stated, “as long as the Taiwan authorities acknowledge the “1992 Consensus,” the two sides can not only talk about the official conclusion of the state of hostility, the establishment of mutual military trust, the Taiwan region’s room for international operation compatible with its status…but also talk about all the issues that need to be resolved in the process of realizing peaceful reunification.”

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The Elephant in the Cross-Strait Room

• The Taiwan Relations Act - The US is more than an interested observer

• US-Taiwan Relations deteriorated under DPP, much improved since March 2008

• Significant developments in US-Taiwan relations - arms sales, removal from IPR watch list

• US support for cross-Strait rapprochement

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Is a “Win-Win-Win” Partnership Possible?

• US-Taiwan relations are improving; building on common values and interests

• Taiwan is not central to the US-China agenda, which is good

• Cross-Strait dialogue is progressing; military threat might be reducing

• Obama and Hu have tough issues on their plate, but Taiwan not on it

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