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U.S. Russia Business Council. 18 th Annual Meeting October 21, 2010 San Francisco. Panel Discussion on The High‐Tech Dimensions of Energy Lucian Pugliaresi Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. Conventional Wisdom -- Just 5 Short Years Ago. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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U.S. Russia Business Council
18th Annual Meeting
October 21, 2010San Francisco
Panel Discussion on The High Tech Dimensions of ‐Energy
Lucian Pugliaresi Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc
Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org
2Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org
•World to Face Large Scale Shortages in Refining Capacity
•No Major Large Scale Additions Likely in Petroleum Reserves (peak oil) – prices will rise to well over $100/bbl.
•U.S. to Face Natural Gas Shortages – Massive Commitment to Domestic LNG Receiving Facilities
•Latin America has been Fully Explored
Conventional Wisdom -- Just 5 Short Years Ago
Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org
© OECD/IEA 2010
Energy Demand in Russia 2007 v 2030(World Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Scenario)
Fuel 2007 2030Coal 15 20Oil 20 18Gas 55 50Nuclear 6 8Hydro 2 2Renewables 1 2
Fuel 2007 2030Coal 17 26Oil 2 1Gas 48 38Nuclear 16 17Hydro 17 14Renewables 0 3
Primary Energy Demand, %
Electricity generation, %
6
World LNG and Unconventional Gas Production
Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org
7
U.S. Proven Gas Reserves Since 1980
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20080
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
tcf
~50% increase in 8 years – nearly all
from shale gas
Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org
8
The Peak Oil Problem:How Serious?
9
Permian BasinTesting Hubbard-Method Predictions for Reserves and Production
(Billions of Barrels)
Cumulative Discoveries
17.6 27.9 35.2
Percent Attributable to 1950
85% 86% 84%
Cumulative production as of 19-27.5 28.5-30.5 35.8-37.5
Year 2000 production projected in: (mb/d)
162-479 326-479 910(actual)
1964 1982 2000
Source: EPRINC, October 2006. Does the Hubbard Method Provide a Reliable Means for Predicting Future Oil Production, Richard Nehring, October 2006,
Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org