U.S. Produce Imports from Mexico - migrationfiles.ucdavis.edu · U.S. Produce Imports from Mexico. Linda Calvin and Steven Zahniser U.S.Department of Agriculture Economic Research

USDA iiiiillllllllll United States Department of Agriculture

Economic Research Service www. ers. usda .gov

U.S. Produce Imports from Mexico

Linda Calvin and Steven Zahniser U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service

Presentation to the seminar entitled “Farm Workers in Mexico and the United States” Mexico Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center

Washington, DC, November 15, 2017

Views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service, USDA, or other entities participating in this research.

USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda .gov

U.S.-Mexico fruitand vegetable trade at a glance

• In 2016, U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico reached about 10 million metric tons—with atotal value of about $12.4 billion.

• This trade accounted for about: – 43 percent of total U.S. fruit and vegetable imports (from all countries) – 54 percent of U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico – 4 percent of U.S. merchandise imports from Mexico

• In this presentation, we will focus on different types of fresh or frozen fruit and vegetables, whichaccounted for about 92 percent of U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico in 2016.

• The United States also participates in U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade as an exporter: – U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico equaled about $17.8 billion in 2016. – Grains, oilseeds, meat, and related products accounted for about three-fourths of this trade. – Fruit and vegetables accounted for about 7 percent.

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Census Bureau, as cited by USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser

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U.S. produce imports: Mexico is the largest foreign supplier of vegetables and fruit (when bananas are excluded)

10,000

1990 2016 1990 2016 1990 2016

Fruit Vegetables Bananas (fresh, frozen, and dried (fresh and frozen)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1,00

0 short ton

s

ROW

Canada

Mexico

3

but excluding bananas) Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce.

Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser


Availability of farm labor in Mexico is one of many factors driving U.S. produce imports

• Demand – Consumer demand for year-round supplies of fresh produce – A desire for a healthier diet – Partial shift in consumption from canned and frozen product to fresh produce – Increased per capita consumption of certain fruit and vegetables – New interest in tropical fruit (avocados, papayas, mangos)

• Supply – Favorable climates in other countries for growing fruit and vegetables, often complementing U.S. growing seasons – Greater availability of farm labor in Mexico and other countries – Trade liberalization (NAFTA, CAFTA-DR, Peru, Colombia) – Regulatory coordination and trade facilitation (changes in phytosanitary rules for avocados form one example) – New technologies (protected cultures, including greenhouses and shade houses, and new varieties, among other factors) – New commodities grown in Mexico (berries) – Food safety challenges (raspberries, cantaloupe) – New transportation infrastructure reduces transport costs from some areas: Increased use of Laredo and Weslaco Ports of Entry – Increased participation of U.S. producers, buyers, and investors in produce sectors of Mexico and other countries as a way to reduce

weather risks, to obtain product to “fill out” the calendar year, and to lower labor costs


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Tomatoes: The leading U.S. vegetable import from Mexico in 2016 (volume)

Tomatoes 29%

Cucumbers 12%

Chilipeppers 10%

Squash 7%

Bell peppers 7%

Onionsand shallots 6%

All others 29%

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Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce. Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser

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Avocados: The leading U.S. fruit import from Mexico in 2016 (volume)

Avocados 22%All others

27%

Strawberries,

Limes(fresh or dried)

Watermelons fresh 18% 5% Papayas

5% Mangoes 15%

8% Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce.


Tomatoes


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Protected culture technology has transformed Mexican shipments to the United States

• Protected culture (PC) is a broad term than covers high-tech greenhouses to low-tech shade houses.

• Began in the mid-1990s in Canada • Applied commercially first in Canada, then in the United States, and finally in Mexico which is now the powerhouse in the industry

• Primary commodities are tomatoes, bell peppers, and cucumbers • Canadian and U.S. greenhouses are very high-tech and expensive • Mexican operations are a mix of high-tech greenhouses and lower-techshade houses

• Analytical challenge: low-quality data on U.S. greenhouse production Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser

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9


U.S. tomato market: Import share has risen from 17 to 54 percent

Field production

Imports (field

and PC)

Exports (field

and PC)

Per capita consumption

Import share of

consumption

Million lbs Lbs. Percent

1990-92 3,561 675 320 15 17

2014-16 3,286 3,605 217 21 54

Percent change -8 434 -32 35 212

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce.

California and Florida fresh-market tomato production: Florida’s production has declined since the early 1990s

25,0001,000 cwt.

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

California Florida

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and USDA, NASS.

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U.S. field tomato production (round and roma) and field and PC imports, 1990-2016: Imports from Mexico now exceed U.S. production

Million lbs. 5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. field tomato production (round and roma) Canada Mexico

11

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and USDA, NASS. Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser

PC and field roma tomatoes now account for the majority of U.S. tomato imports from Mexico

Tons 1,000,000

900,000

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Cherry Roma Grape All PC tomatoes All others (round)

12

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce.Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser


Cucumbers


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U.S. cucumber production decreased by 22 percent since 1990-92

Field Imports Exports Per capita Import share production (field and (field and consumption of

PC) PC) consumption

Million lbs. Lbs. Percent

1990-92average 876 403 82 5 34

2014-16average 687 1,801 31 8 73

Percent change -22 347 -63 62 118


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U.S. imports of field-produced cucumbers from Mexico exceed imports of PC-cucumbers

Million lbs. 1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

US field Mexican field CanadianPC(greenhouse) Mexican PC



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Bell peppers


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U.S. bell pepper market: Imports soar 514 percent

Field Imports Exports Per capita Import share production (field and PC) (field and PC) consumption of

consumption

Million lbs Lbs Percent

1990-92average 1/ 630 211 169 2.8 26

2014-16average 865 1,294 109 7.2 64

Percent change 37 514 -36 161 146

1/ Fresh production, per capita consumption, and import share of consumption based on 1990-91 average.

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA AMS, and USDA, NASS.

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U.S. bell pepper field production: After initial increases, Florida and California’s fresh-market production has declined 1/

1,000 cwt. 7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Florida fresh California fresh

1/ There are data problems for California bell peppers in the mid 1990s and those numbers are not shown.

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA/AMS, and USDA/NASS.

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U.S. bell pepper imports from Mexico: About evenly balanced between field and PC product

1,200

1,400M lbs.

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Mexico field

Mexico PC

CanadaPC(greenhouse)

US-all fresh field

Total Canadian and Mexican imports

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA/AMS, and U.S. Department of Commerce.


Berries


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U.S. berry supply: Strawberries still the leading berry consumed in the United States

Million lbs.

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 1990-92 2014-16 1990-92 2014-16 1990-92 2014-16 1990-92 2014-16

Strawberries Raspberries Blueberries Blackberries

Production Imports


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U.S. berry market overview: Mexico supplies almost all imports, except blueberries

StrawB RaspB BlueB BlackB 1/

Percent change (1990-92 to 2014-16)

Imports

U.S. production 161 516 544 74

Per-capita consumption 128 1,164 931 NA

1,084 4,792 1,334 2,687

Percent (2014-16)

Import share of consumption 14 55 53 NA

MX share of imports 100 98 9 95 1/ Growth in blackberry production is based on data from 2008 and 2016 only.

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Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA/AMS, and U.S. Department of Commerce.


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U.S. strawberry shipments: Imports of Mexican strawberries for the winter season increased between 1990 and 2016

100,000 lbs. 3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2016 1990

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov California Florida Mexico Other imports

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS.

Growth in U.S. strawberry supplies: Florida production is leveling off

Million lbs. 3,500 4003,500

3,000 3,000 350

300 2,500 2,500

250

2,000 2,000 200

1,500 1,500 150

1,000 1,000 100

500 500 50

0 00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

California Florida Mexico California Florida Mexico

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

24

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS. Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser

Mexican raspberries expand the U.S. consumption calendar

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

100,000

lbs

20161990 400

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

California Canada Chile Mexico

25

Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS.

Raspberry imports from Mexico approach U.S. production level

200Million lbs. 180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

US production Canada Mexico Guatemala Chile


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U.S. per capita blueberry consumption increased 931percent between 1990-92and 2014-16

100,000 lbs 1,200

1990 2016 1,000

800

600

400

200

0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

US Mexico Other importers

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Mexico’s share of U.S. blueberry imports increased to 9 percent

1,000tons 90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Canada Mexico Peru Chile Argentina

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce.

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Mexico is the leading source—foreign or domestic—of blackberries in the United States

100,000lbs. 2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

US Mexico Guatemala

Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov

2008 2016

29



Avocados


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Avocados: Mexican production supplied 91percent ofU.S. consumption in 2016

Million lbs. 2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

United States Mexico Bahamas DominicanRepublic Peru Chile New Zealand


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U.S. avocado production is higher during the summer, when imports from Mexico are lower

100,000 lbs. 3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

California Florida Bahamas Chile DominicanRepublic Mexico Peru

1990 2016

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

32

Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS.


Questions and discussion

Thank you! Linda Calvin, [email protected]

Steven Zahniser, [email protected]

ERS website: www.ers.usda.gov

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Documents

U.S. Produce Imports from Mexico - migrationfiles.ucdavis.edu · U.S. Produce Imports from Mexico. Linda Calvin and Steven Zahniser U.S.Department of Agriculture Economic Research