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Market Briefing:US MSCI Stock Price Index
vs Rest of the WorldYardeni Research, Inc.
August 27, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
US vs World ex-US MSCI 3-4US vs EMU MSCI 5-6US vs UK MSCI 7-8US vs Japan MSCI 9-10US vs EM MSCI 11-12
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 233
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
128/27
8/27
STYLE RATIOS: STAY HOME vs GO GLOBAL(daily)
US MSCI / ACW ex-USIn dollarsIn local currencies
Source: MSCI.
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Figure 1.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20211.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
8/21MSCI FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*: US vs. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX US
MSCI Forward EarningsUS (dollars) / ACW ex-US (local currencies)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: MSCI.
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Figure 2.
US vs World ex-US MSCI
Page 3 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2280
90
100
110
120
130
140
1
8/27
8/27
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ALL COUNTRY WORLD MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO & JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR
All Country WorldMSCI Index Currency Ratio(local currency index/US$ index)
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(2010=100)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India,Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland,Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela,Vietnam, & Euro Area.Source: MSCI and JP Morgan.
Figure 3.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20216
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
8/20
MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs ALL COUNTRY WORLD ex-US
Forward P/E*
ACW ex-US (16.8)US (22.7)
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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: MSCI.
Figure 4.
US vs World ex-US MSCI
Page 4 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
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RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI:US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY EMU MSCI(in both US$ and in local currencies, daily)
US / EMU MSCIIn dollarsIn local currencies
Source: MSCI.
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Figure 5.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
8/20
MSCI FORWARD EARNING*: US vs EMU
MSCI Forward Earnings:US (dollars) / EMU (euros)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: MSCI.
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Figure 6.
US vs EMU MSCI
Page 5 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
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***** Chart Not Available *****
Task: MSCIEMUCURRATIOJP1
KEEP command attempted on missing data
08-27-2020 - 18:10:46
Figure 7.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20216
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
8/20
MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs EMU
Forward P/E*
EMU (17.7)US (22.7)
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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: MSCI.
Figure 8.
US vs EMU MSCI
Page 6 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
***** Chart Not Available *****
Task: MSCIUSUK$LC
KEEP command attempted on missing data
08-27-2020 - 18:06:58
Figure 9.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021.0
.5
1.0
1.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
8/20
MSCI FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*: US vs UK
MSCI Forward EarningsUS (dollars) / UK (pound)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: MSCI.
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Figure 10.
US vs UK MSCI
Page 7 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
***** Chart Not Available *****
Task: MSCIEXCURRATIOJP1
KEEP command attempted on missing data
08-27-2020 - 14:24:49
Figure 11.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20216
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
8/20
MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs UK
Forward P/E*
UK (15.0)US (22.7)
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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: MSCI.
Figure 12.
US vs UK MSCI
Page 8 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
8/27
8/27
RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI:US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY JAPAN MSCI(in both US$ and in local currencies, daily)
MSCI US / JapanIn dollarsIn local currencies
Source: MSCI.
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Figure 13.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
8/20
MSCI FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*: US vs JAPAN
MSCI Forward EarningsUS (dollars) / Japan (yen)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: MSCI.
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Figure 14.
US vs Japan MSCI
Page 9 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2160
80
100
120
140
160
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
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8/27
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JAPAN MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO & JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR
JapanMSCI Index Currency Ratio(local currency index/US$ index)
Yen/Dollar
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia,Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia,Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area.Source: MSCI and JP Morgan.
Figure 15.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20215
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
8/20
MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs JAPAN
Forward P/E*
Japan (18.0)US (22.7)
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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: MSCI.
Figure 16.
US vs Japan MSCI
Page 10 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
8/27
8/27
RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI:US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY EM MSCI(in both US$ and in local currencies, daily)
MSCI US / EMIn dollarsIn local currencies
Source: MSCI.
yardeni.com
Figure 17.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021.00
.01
.02
.03
.00
.01
.02
.03
8/21
MSCI FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*: US vs. EMERGING MARKETS
MSCI Forward EarningsUS MSCI (dollars) / Emerging Markets (local currency)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: MSCI.
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Figure 18.
US vs EM MSCI
Page 11 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
8/27
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EMERGING MARKETS MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO & JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR
Emerging MarketsMSCI Index Currency Ratio(local currency index/US$ index)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia,Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia,Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area.Source: MSCI and JP Morgan.
Figure 19.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20216
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
6
8
10
12
14
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18
20
22
24
8/20
MSCI FORWARD P/E: US vs EMERGING MARKETS
Forward P/E*
Emerging Markets (15.0)US (22.7)
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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: MSCI.
Figure 20.
US vs EM MSCI
Page 12 / August 27, 2020 / US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World www.yardeni.com
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