US MIGRATION From 1990 to 2011

By Travis Goldade

OUTLINE

• Brief Overview

• Past Studies• World • US

• Small discussion my plan

OVERVIEW

• Common field

• Economics, Demography, Resource Management…• Many models yet many not widely accepted

Most Widely accepted Economical

• Push & Pull Factors• Push

Political instability, War, Famine• Pull

Economics, Population, Cultural, Sociological

WORLD MIGRATION

WORLD MIGRATION

From the start

All of Africa was populated by 150 thousand Yrs

WORLD MIGRATION

From the start

Moved in Mid East 100 thousand Yrs

WORLD MIGRATION

From the start

Settled Europe 40 thousand Yrs

WORLD MIGRATION

From the start

Bearing Land Crossing ~20 thousand Yrs

WORLD MIGRATION

From the start

Polynesia wasn’t settled till ~1000 A.D.

Reason For Migration:

• Invasions• Famine • Climate Change

Survival

WORLD MIGRATION

Age of Exploration ~1600 to 1800

First major Migration of people for social needs(Printing Press)

Reason For Migration:

• Religious persecution • Nationalism • Slave Trade

Freedom

WORLD MIGRATION

Industrial/Modern Migration ~1800 to Today

Better Transportation (steam engine)

Reason For Migration:

• Labor Migration (international)• Refugees (political & warfare)• Urbanization (Internal)

Money & War

WORLD MIGRATION

Trends

Migration Follows Change

• Climatic, Resource Based• People had to move to live

• Renascence Social Revolution• Moved for Freedom

• Industrial Revolution• Moved for Money• Political Shocks (fall of USSR)

It is Accelerating

More people are moving

16th -18th century 200 thousand people moved to America

19th century over 50 Million people moved to America

People move more for Economic reasons todayProduct of Globilzation

WORLD MIGRATIONLITERATURE

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

Two Studies with Complex Network

Studied from 1960 – 2000

Used Global Migration Data Base (GMD)Not at all a complete data setonly tracks citizen changes

Both Studied from 1960 – 2000

Treated countries As Nodes Links = number of migrants

Key Difference Use of Network Metrics i.e. distance, GDP, Linguistic & Social Ties

One used them independently Other combined metrics

Both had very similar results

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

Combined Results

• 1960 - 47% of countries were connected • 2000 - 62% of the countries were connected

Increasing Connections

Decrease in Path Length & Increase Clustering Coeff• 1960 - length .66 CC .74• 2000 – length . 62 CC .76

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

Combined Results

• 1960 - 47% of countries were connected • 2000 - 62% of the countries were connected

Increasing Connections

Decrease in Path Length & Increase Clustering Coeff• 1960 - length .66 CC .74• 2000 – length . 62 CC .76

Random non assortative Network• There were hubs (US, Germany ect)• Geographic distances limited direct routs• Graph of nearest neighbors degree• Suggests a random network

Gravity Model Applied• F= flow• G= const• D= Distance• M=Economic Mass

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

Combined Results

Random non assortative Network• There were hubs (US, Germany ect)• Geographic distances limited direct routs

• Graph of nearest neighbors degree• Suggests a random network

Gravity Model Applied• F= flow• G= const• D= Distance• M=Economic Mass

Power Law Applies• K= undirected connections btw neighbors (cluster) • S = Weight of Link

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

• Things effecting mutual migration

• + = Common Language

• = Common Religion

• x= population

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

• The second study was very similar• Only real difference is they combined multiple metrics• Language, Religion, Economic power ect

• They combined these in a 5 point metric • Referenced in a book I could not access

Log(N) =3.38 in 2000 Log(N) =1.36 in 2000

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

Conclusions

• 1960 – Only Taiwan and Belize had no immigrants• 2000 – Every county is has immigrants

Strongly Connected Graph

People are moving directly to migration sinks• The migration paths are creating links, &

becoming more direct• Most common is North to North & South to South

migrations• South to North is becoming more common

• Eating into South to South• Hubs include

• Germany, USA, England

• Small world behavior is being observed (globalization)

• Over time Larger Communities • Less of them• Result of Migrations corridors

combining

• NOT geographically bound

• Smaller degree countries are becoming more connected

MODERN US INTERNAL MIGRATION

MODERN US MIGRATION

Trends

Flow from East to West

Economic & Social based • People move for leisure• Educated young males most

likely

Not vey well studied

Influx migration strong indicator of healthy economy

Pull Factors• High Employment• Larger Populations (Urbanization)• Housing

Push Factors• High Taxes• Crime• Unemployment…

Good Economic times Orderedpeople go where the jobs are

Bad Economic times Chaotic

MODERN US MIGRATIONLITERATURE

Very little has been done

Majority are Economic Studies

• Nothing has been done for Complex Network analyses

• Majority are study of population increase/decrease• Not looking where they are

going

• Practically Nothing about

where people go during economic hardship

Summery of Results

• 90’s 2007 Net out flow of people to the sunbelt seeking cheaper homes

• Pop is more mobile during good times & stagnate during recessions • Largest Pulling factors were Housing & Economic factors

• Population inflow is a strong economic indicator, however outflow is not a weak one

• Important is % net flux in• Only major Pushing factor was Tax

rates (government)

MY PROPOSAL

I will be tracing the migration of people from county to county With data from IRS Migration data

• They have records of where people are moving from each county from 1990 -2011

• I would like to see if any patterns arise

• In particular I would like to see if there relationship btw net migration and political affiliation during different times

• This data might not be straight forward

SUMMATION

Complex Analysis has rarely been applied to migration

• Historically people move following change & Survival

• World Scale• People are moving to

Economic Hubs• They move more out of

Necessity

• US Scale• People move for leisure• Typically follow housing prices &

job opportunities• Poorly understood

• People tend to follow money• Strong Economic Indicator

• I propose • Map county by county map of

the US from 1990 to 2011• Look for patterns

• Particularly Political Patterns

QUESTIONS