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US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Mark V. Lomanno
President
SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to October 2007
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Supply % ChangeDemand % Change
Total United StatesRoom Supply Percent ChangeJan 2003 – October 2007
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 J F M A M J J A S O
Total United StatesRoom Demand Percent ChangeJan 2003 – October 2007
-5
0
5
10
2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 J F M A M J J A S O
-8-6-4-202468
10
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Occ % ChgADR % Chg
Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to October 2007
Total United StatesRoom Rate Percent ChangeJan 2003 – October 2007
-5
0
5
10
2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 J F M A M J J A S O
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to October 2007
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
RevPAR % Chg
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeFull Year 2004 - 2006 and YTD October 2007
0.1
2.9
5.4
1.3 1.3
0
5.8 5.9
4.14.1 3.6
7.9
0.5
3.0
8.5
7.57.0
0.61.1
0.5
0
5
10
Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
2004 20052006 2007 YTD
Total United StatesQuarterly RevPar Percent Change
10.0
6.15.2
5.7 6.0
8.4
6.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07P
Chain ScalesAverage Daily Rate (In Dollars)Twelve Months Ended September 2007
157.33
116.77
85.06
53.40
285.02
85.98
40
90
140
190
240
290
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale MidscaleW/FB
Midscalew/o FB
Economy
Chain ScalesOccupancy PercentTwelve Months Ended September 2007
71.0 71.369.7
59.2
65.9
57.2
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale MidscaleW/FB
Midscalew/o FB
Economy
Chain ScalesSupply/Demand Percent ChangeOctober 2007 YTD
2.31.3
3.6
-2.4
3.9
1.92.2 1.72.8
-2.8
3.32.1
-5
0
5
10
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy
SupplyDemand
Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeOctober 2007 YTD
5.7 6.17.2
2.7
-0.1
0.1
-0.8 -0.4
0.4
-0.6
6.9
4.6
-5
0
5
10
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy
OccupancyADR
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2000 2002 2004 2006
LuxuryUpper UpscaleUpscaleMid W/F&BMid W/outEconomy
Chain Scale 12 Month Moving Average - Supply Index (Jan 2000 = 100) Jan 2000 – August 2007
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2000 2002 2004 2006
LuxuryUpper UpscaleUpscaleMid W/F&BMid W/outEconomy
Chain Scale 12 Month Moving Average - Demand Index (Jan 2000 = 100) Jan 2000 – August 2007
95100105110115120125130135140
2000 2002 2004 2006
LuxuryUpper UpscaleUpscaleMid W/F&BMid W/outEconomyCPI
Chain Scale 12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2000 = 100) Jan 2000 – August 2007
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2000 2002 2004 2006
LuxuryUpper UpscaleUpscaleMid W/F&BMid W/outEconomy
Chain Scale 12 Month Moving Average - Revenue Index (Jan 2000 = 100) Jan 2000 – August 2007
Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Last Year
PhaseSeptember
2007September
2006 Difference % Change
In Construction 196,356 163,434 32,922 20.1%
Final Planning 58,395 58,010 385 0.7%
Planning 315,064 312,832 2,232 0.7%
Active Pipeline 569,815 534,276 35,539 6.7%
Pre-Planning 134,668 79,104 55,564 70.2%
Total 704,483 613,380 91,103 14.9%
Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
Average Months Under Construction Start to OpenAll US HotelsBy Open Year : 2000 – October 2007
12.114.4
16.2 16.2 16.7 16.2
19.3
16.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Oct-07Year Project Opened
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Total United StatesAnnual Rooms Closed with Multi-year Averages 1990 – 2006
Average: ‘90-’98: 15.6k
Average: ‘04-’06: 57k
Average:‘99-’03: 29.5k
1.6
0.7
1.61.4
2.0
-0.1
0.3
1.0
0.4
4.0
2.8
2.0
0.3
1.3
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007P 2008P
Supply % Chg
Demand % Chg
Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent Change2002 – 2008P
2.9
0
3.6
0.3 0.4 0.2
-1.2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007P 2008P
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent Change2002 – 2008P
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent2002 – 2008P
59.0 59.2
61.3
63.1 63.4 63.5 63.5
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007P 2008P
4.2
5.2
0.1
7.2
6.0
-1.5
5.5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007P 2008P
Total United StatesADR Percent Change2002 – 2008P
Total United StatesAverage Daily Rate (In Dollars)2002 – 2008P
82.8486.30
91.02
103.47108.85
82.72
97.61
50
75
100
125
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007P 2008P
8.5
5.2
7.7
6.2
7.9
0.5
-2.7
-5
0
5
10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007P 2008P
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent Change2002 – 2008P
