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US Flow of Funds
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 10, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-663-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
December 10, 2020 / US Flow of Funds www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Total Debt 1Nonfinancial Debt 2-3Financial Debt 4-6Total Borrowing 7Nonfinancial Borrowing 8Borrowing 9Nonfinancial Borrowing 10Corporate Finance 11-12New Issues of Corporate Securities 13Corporate Finance 14-20Mortgage Finance 21-22Consumer Finance 23-24US Households: Assets 25US Household Ratios 26US Households: Real Estate & Debt 27-29Public Finance 30-34Rest of World 35International Finance 36
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1
20.1
40.1
60.180.1100.1
.1
20.1
40.1
60.180.1
100.1
Q3DEBT(trillion dollars, ratio scale)
Total Debt(nsa) (80.8)Nonfinancial Debt(sa) (60.1)Financial Debt(sa) (17.3)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 1.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q2
US DEBT(as a percent of nominal GDP)
Debt/GDPTotal (383.2)Nonfinancial (286.3)Financial (82.3)
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 2.
Total Debt
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Q2
US DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS(trillion dollars, nsa)
Nonfinancial DebtTotal* (59.2)Total Less Treasury (36.8)Treasury (22.4)
* Includes mortgage, consumer, business, and US Treasury debt.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 3.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
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300
0
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250
300
Q2US DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS(as a percent of nominal GDP)
Nonfinancial Debt / GDPTotal* (280.6)Total Less Treasury (174.4)Treasury (106.2)
* Includes mortgage, consumer, business, and government debt.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 4.
Nonfinancial Debt
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.2
8.2
16.2
24.2
32.240.2
.2
8.2
16.2
24.2
32.240.2
Q3
DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
US Treasury Debt (23.0)Household Debt (16.4)
Business Debt (17.5)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 5.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420
40
60
80
100
120
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40
60
80
100
120
Q3
DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS(as a percent of nominal GDP)
US Treasury Debt / GDP (109.5)
Household Debt / GDP (78.1)Business Debt / GDP (83.6)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 6.
Nonfinancial Debt
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 245
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q2
DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS(as a percent of total debt)
Total (21.4)
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 7.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.4
2.4
4.4
6.4
8.4
10.4
12.414.416.418.420.4
.4
2.4
4.4
6.4
8.4
10.4
12.414.416.418.420.4
Q3DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
Total Financial Debt (17.3)Total Securitized Debt* (10.4)Total Less Securitized*Debt (6.9)
* Sum of government sponsored entreprises, agency & GSE-backed mortgage pools, and ABS issuers.Source: Flow of Funds.
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Figure 8.
Financial Debt
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250
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Q2
DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS(percent)
Total Securitized Debt* /Financial Debt (60.3)
* Sum of GSE, agency & GSE-backed mortgage pools, and ABS issuers.Source: Flow of Funds.
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Figure 9.
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.1
.9
1.7
2.5
3.3
4.14.95.76.57.38.1
.1
.9
1.7
2.5
3.3
4.14.95.76.57.38.1
Q2
CREDIT MARKET DEBT OWED BY FINANCIAL SECTORS*(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
GSE Issues (7.3)Agency & GSE-backed Mortgage Pool Securities (2.4)
Corporate Bonds Issued by Financial Sector (5.2)
* As a result of two accounting rules, FAS 166 and 167, the assets and liabilities of some special purpose entities (SPEs) have been moved onto thebalance sheets of the US chartered commercial bank, government-sponsored enterprise finance company sectors. The consolidated assets and liabilitieswere removed from the agency and GSE-backed mortgage pool sector and the issuers of asset-backed securities (ABS) sector.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 10.
Financial Debt
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
Q2
CORPORATE BONDS OUTSTANDING(trillion dollars, nsa)
Financial Sector
Commercial Banking (0.2)ABS Issuers (1.1)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 11.
Financial Debt
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-3
-2
-1
0
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2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Q2BORROWING*(trillion dollars)
Debt (y/y change)Total (7.4)Nonfinancial (6.2)Financial (0.6)
* Yearly change in debt.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 12.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-20
-15
-10
-5
0
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0
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Q2
BORROWING*(as a percent of nominal GDP) Debt (y/y change)
TotalNonfinancialFinancial
* Yearly change in debt divided by 4-quarter moving average of nominal GDP.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 13.
Total Borrowing
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-1
0
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-1
0
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Q2
BORROWING OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS*(trillion dollars)
Debt (y/y change)Total (6.5)Nonfederal** (1.9)US Treasury (4.6)
* Yearly change in debt.** Nonfederal equals Total minus US Treasury.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 14.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
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24
-6
-4
-2
0
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24
Q2
BORROWING OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS*(as a percent of nominal GDP)
Debt (y/y change)
Nonfederal** (9.1)US Treasury (21.4)
* Yearly change in debt divided by 4-quarter moving average of nominal GDP.** Nonfederal equals total nonfinancial minus US Treasury.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 15.
Nonfinancial Borrowing
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-500
-100
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1100
1500
1900
2300
2700
3100
3500
3900
4300
-500
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700
1100
1500
1900
2300
2700
3100
3500
3900
4300Q3BORROWING BY NONFINANCIAL SECTORS
(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
US Treasury (4148.6)Households (545.3)Business (1394.4)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 16.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-2000
-1800
-1600
-1400
-1200
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800
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1200
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1600
1800
2000
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Q3
BORROWING BY FINANCIAL SECTORS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 17.
Borrowing
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-5
0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15
Q3
BORROWING BY NONFINANCIAL SECTORS(trillion dollars, saar)
Households Plus Business (0.7)US Treasury (2.0)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 18.
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-20
0
20
40
60
-20
0
20
40
60
Q3
BORROWING BY NONFINANCIAL SECTORS(as a percent of nominal GDP)
Households Plus Business / GDPUS Treasury / GDP
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 19.
Nonfinancial Borrowing
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420
620
1220
1820
24203020
20
620
1220
1820
24203020
Q3CORPORATE CASH FLOW(ratio scale, billion dollars, saar)
Tax-Reported Depreciation*** (1929.6)
Economic Depreciation** (1946.1)
* After-tax undistributed corporate profits with IVA & CCAdj plus tax-reported depreciation.** Corporate capital consumption allowances.
*** Corporate capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
CorporateCash Flow* (2625.0)
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Figure 20.
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
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-200
-150
-100
-50
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50
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INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT*(billion dollars, saar)
Q3
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENT*(billion dollars, saar)
Q3
* Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basisused in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 21.
Corporate Finance
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
400
600
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1000
1200
1400
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2200
2400
2600
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3200
3400
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600
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1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
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2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
Q3
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: CASH FLOW*(billion dollars, saar)
* After-tax operating retained earnings plus tax-return-based depreciation.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 22.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
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-700
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-500
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-200
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400
500
Q3
FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: CASH FLOW*(billion dollars, saar)
* Corporate cash flow minus nonfinancial corporate cash flow.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 23.
Corporate Finance
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Figure 24.
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Oct
NEW US CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES(billion dollars, 12-month sum)
Bonds + Stocks
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Oct
Bonds + StocksNonfinancialFinancial
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Oct
Bonds
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
OctBondsNonfinancialFinancial
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Oct
NEW US CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
Stocks
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
50
100
150
200
OctStocksNonfinancialFinancial
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New Issues of Corporate Securities
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
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850
950
1050
-450
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650
750
850
950
1050
Q2CORPORATE NET NEW ISSUES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Nonfinancial & FinancialCorporate Issues
Bonds & Equities (979.1)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 25.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
Q2
CORPORATE NET NEW ISSUES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Nonfinancial & FinancialCorporate Issues
Bonds (1007.6)Equities (-28.5)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 26.
Corporate Finance
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-1000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
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500
600
700
800
-1000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q2CORPORATE NET ISSUES & BANK BORROWING: NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Nonfinancial Corporations
Equities (-350.1)
Bonds (673.9)
Bank Loans (321.8)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 27.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-750
-650
-550
-450
-350
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-150
-50
50
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50
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450
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850
950
1050
Q2
CORPORATE NET NEW ISSUES: FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Financial CorporationsTotal Bonds (333.7)ABS Bonds* (80.0)Equities (321.6)
* ABS = Asset-backed securities.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 28.
Corporate Finance
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
Q2
CORPORATE EQUITIES NET ISSUES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Equity Net IssuesUS Nonfinancial & Financial IssuesForeign Issues*
* Net purchases of foreign issues by US residents.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 29.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
Q2
CORPORATE EQUITIES: NET PURCHASES BY HOUSEHOLDS*(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Households’ Equity Purchases:Directly Held by Households (23.8)
* Includes not only households, but also nonprofit organizations, as well as domestic hedge funds, private equity funds, and personal trusts.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 30.
Corporate Finance
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Q2
NET PURCHASES OF US CORPORATE EQUITIES: PENSION FUNDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Pension FundsPrivate (1.9)State & Local (-94.3)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 31.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Q2
NET PURCHASES OF US CORPORATE EQUITIES: LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Life Insurance
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 32.
Corporate Finance
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-200
0
200
400
600
800
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Q2
NET PURCHASES OF CORPORATE AND FOREIGN BONDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Rest of the World (232.0)Institutional Investors* (257.2)
* Life insurance companies and private pension funds.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 33.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
Q2
NET PURCHASES OF CORPORATE AND FOREIGN BONDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Brokers and Dealers (-4.6)
Funding Corporations (5.8)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 34.
Corporate Finance
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52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440
1360
2680
4000
532066407960
40
1360
2680
4000
532066407960
Q2NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: TOTAL LIQUID ASSETS(billion dollars, ratio scale, nsa)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 35.
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2411
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Q2NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS DEBT(as a ratio of nonfinancial corporate business cash flow*)
* Profits before tax ex profit tax accruals and dividends plus capital consumption adjustment and depreciation charges plus foreign earnings retainedabroad and inventory valuation adjustment.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 36.
Corporate Finance
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52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420
40
60
80
100
120
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q2
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: LIQUID ASSETS / SHORT-TERM DEBT(percent)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 37.
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420
30
40
50
20
30
40
50
Q2
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: SHORT-TERM DEBT / CREDIT MARKET DEBT(percent)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Figure 38.
Corporate Finance
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81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-250
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
-250
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
Q2
HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-50050100150200250300350400450500550600650700750
-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-50
050
100150200250300350400450500550600650700750
Q2
HOME MORTGAGE LENDING(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Federally RelatedMortgage Pools (48.8)ABS Issuers* (-14.4)
GSE** (267.5)
* ABS = Asset-Backed Securities.** GSE = Government Sponsored Enterprises including FNMA.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 40.
Mortgage Finance
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q2
COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE LENDING(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Total
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 41.
Mortgage Finance
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
-140
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-100
-80
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-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Oct
CONSUMER CREDIT*(billion dollars, 12-month change)
Total** (13.1)
* Includes home equity loans but not auto leases.** From 1990 on includes noninstallment credit.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
Sep
CONSUMER CREDIT: REVOLVING CREDIT PER HOUSEHOLD(thousand dollars, 12-month change)
RevolvingCredit (-1.0)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 43.
Consumer Finance
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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2414
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Q3
CONSUMER CREDIT*(as a percent of Disposable Personal Income)
Consumer Credit (20.8)Includes auto leases** (21.7)Total includes auto leases andhome equity loans (23.2)
* From 1990 on includes noninstallment credit.** At finance company subsidiaries of bank holding companies, but not of retailers and banks.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 44.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2440
100
160
220
280
340
400
460
520
580
640
700
760
820
880
940
1000
1060
1120
1180
40
100
160
220
280
340
400
460
520
580
640
700
760
820
880
940
1000
1060
1120
1180
Q2
11/25
HOME EQUITY LOANS(billion dollars, sa)
At Commercial Banks(weekly) (287.1)
US CharteredDepository Institutions(quarterly) (363.1)
Total Home Equity Loans* (474.1)
* Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by mortgage companiesand individuals.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 45.
Consumer Finance
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.2
28.2
56.2
84.2112.2140.2168.2
.2
28.2
56.2
84.2112.2140.2168.2
Q2US HOUSEHOLDS*: NET WORTH, ASSETS, & LIABILITIES(trillion dollars, ratio scale)
Assets (135.4)Net Worth (119.0)Liabilities (16.5)
* Sector includes domestic hedge funds, private equity funds, and personal trusts.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
yardeni.com
Figure 46.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Q2
US HOUSEHOLDS*: SELECTED ASSETS(trillion dollars)
Household AssetsCorporate Equities: Directly Held (19.5)Owners’ Equity in Household Real Estate (20.2)Equity in Noncorporate Business (12.4)
Mutual Fund Shares (9.5)Pension Entitlements (27.7)
* Sector includes domestic hedge funds, private equity funds, and personal trusts.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States, Table L.101.
yardeni.com
Figure 47.
US Households: Assets
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 244.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Q2
US HOUSEHOLDS*: NET WORTH(as a ratio of disposable personal income)
* Sector includes domestic hedge funds, private equity funds, and personal trusts.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2415
20
25
30
35
15
20
25
30
35
Sep
MEASURES OF CONSUMER LIQUIDITY(as a percent of disposable personal income)
Consumer Credit Plus Auto Leases PlusHome Equity Loans at Banks (26.3)Consumer Credit Plus Auto Leases (24.6)Consumer Credit (23.8)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 49.
US Household Ratios
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.8
5.8
10.8
15.8
20.8
25.830.835.840.845.8
.8
5.8
10.8
15.8
20.8
25.830.835.840.845.8
HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE VALUE & HOME MORTGAGES(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Q2
Household Real Estate* (30.8)
Home Mortgages (10.6)Owners’ Equity** (20.2)
* Total market value of real estate held by households. All types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as secondhomes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land.
** Value of household real estate minus home mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
yardeni.com
Figure 50.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2425
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Q2
HOUSEHOLD MORTGAGE DEBT(as a percent of value of household real estate*)
Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts.* Home mortgages plus owners’ equity in household real estate.
yardeni.com
Figure 51.
US Households: Real Estate & Debt
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2458
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
Q2
US HOUSEHOLDS: HOME MORTGAGE DEBT*(as a percent of total liabilities)
* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
yardeni.com
Figure 52.
0246810121416182022
02468
10121416182022
Q2
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Q2
REAL ESTATE(trillion dollars, nsa)
OWNERS’ EQUITY(as a percent of household real estate)
Owners’ Equity in Household Real Estate (20.2)
Home Mortgages* (10.6)
* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 53.
US Households: Real Estate & Debt
Page 28 / December 10, 2020 / US Flow of Funds www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 241.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
Q2
Q2
MARKET VALUE OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE
As a ratio of disposable personal incomeexcluding personal current transfer paymentsand other labor income
As a ratio ofdisposable personal income
Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 54.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Q2
Q2
HOME MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING*
As a ratio of disposable personal incomeexcluding personal current transfer paymentsand other labor income
As a ratio ofdisposable personal income
* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 55.
US Households: Real Estate & Debt
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
Jul
Nov
NovQ2
TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING(trillion dollars, nsa)
Subject to Debt Limit
Statutory Debt Limit
Publicly HeldTreasury Securities Outstanding
Debt of Nonfinancial Domestic Sectors:US Treasury Debt
Source: Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.
yardeni.com
Figure 56.
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Oct
US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE(trillion dollars, 12-month sum)
Latest (-3.3)
Source: US Treasury Department.
yardeni.com
Figure 57.
Public Finance
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86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.7
1.1
1.5
1.9
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.5
3.94.34.75.15.55.96.36.7
.7
1.1
1.5
1.9
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.5
3.94.34.75.15.55.96.36.7 Oct
US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS & RECEIPTS(trillion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale)
Outlays (6.7)Receipts (3.4)
Source: US Treasury Department.
yardeni.com
Figure 58.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2412
14
16
18
20
22
24
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30
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36
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46
48
12
14
16
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22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES & RECEIPTS(as a percent of nominal GDP)
Q3
Q3
Expenditures (34.0)Receipts (17.4)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 59.
Public Finance
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 60.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct
US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS(yearly percent change in 12-month sum)
Total Tax Receipts
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
OctIndividual IncomeTax Receipts
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-100
0
100
200
300
-100
0
100
200
300
Oct
Corporate IncomeTax Receipts
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Oct
yardeni.com
Social Insurance and RetirementTax Receipts
Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9.
Public Finance
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
Q2
US TREASURY SECURITIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Net Purchases:Household Sector (-389.1)Rest of the World (-128.4)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 61.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Q2
US TREASURY SECURITIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Net Purchases:Money Market Mutual Funds PlusBrokers and Dealers (1420.2)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 62.
Public Finance
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81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Q2
NET ISSUES OF MUNICIPAL SECURITIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
State & LocalGovernments (61.7)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 63.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
100
200
300
400
0
100
200
300
400
Q2
STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT FUNDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Net Acquistion ofFinancial Assets (223.1)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 64.
Public Finance
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Q2
REST OF THE WORLD(billion dollars, saar)
Foreign Direct Investment in US (65.2)US Direct Investment Abroad (242.7)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 65.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q2
REST OF WORLD(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Direct InvestmentForeign in US (187.1)US Abroad (120.3)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
yardeni.com
Figure 66.
Rest of World
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89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Sep
US CAPITAL INFLOWS(billion dollars)
US Treasury Bills, Notes, & BondsPurchased by Foreigners(12-month sum) (-128.0)
Source: US Treasury.
yardeni.com
Figure 67.
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Sep
Sep
US CAPITAL INFLOWS(12-month sum, billion dollars)
US Treasuries Purchased by ForeignersNotes & Bonds (-301.4)Bills (173.5)
Source: US Treasury.
yardeni.com
Figure 68.
International Finance
Page 36 / December 10, 2020 / US Flow of Funds www.yardeni.com
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