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Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge and the Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge Draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan and Environmental Assessment U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

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Page 1: U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Grays Harbor National ...€¦ · Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge . Draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan . and Environmental Assessment . Prepared

Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge and the Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife RefugeDraft Comprehensive Conservation Plan and Environmental Assessment

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Page 2: U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Grays Harbor National ...€¦ · Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge . Draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan . and Environmental Assessment . Prepared

Visitors along the Sandpiper Trail boardwalk. ©Ceridwen

Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually NWRThe waters of the Black River flow almost imperceptibly from Black Lake south to the Chehalis River. Meandering through a complex mosaic of wetlands, riparian forest, shrub swamp, and bogs, this area is considered the most intact low-lying river system remaining in western Washington. The Unit protects some of the most expansive and remote wetlands, sustaining a truly wild place.

The Unit provides a diverse community of fish and wildlife, large populations of once rare species such as the Oregon spotted frog, salmon, and unique bog, plants, and animals now flourish in the healthy wetland habitats.

Unit visitors will explore the quiet waterway, paddling canoes through the narrow river channel to fish and observe wildlife. Exploration of the native habitats offers opportunities to catch a glimpse of secretive wading birds, river otter, beaver, Roosevelt elk, and other wildlife, providing visitors with a sense of stewardship for the Unit.

Together, community members and partners, in concert with the Unit, protect and enhance the Black River, promoting biodiversity and natural ecological functions to benefit native fish, wildlife, and plant communities in wetland and upland habitats.

The Unit continues to build strong partnerships to protect and maintain the solitude, wild character, and health of the Black River so future generations can experience being a part of this very special place.

A Vision of ConservationGrays Harbor NWRThe Refuge is recognized internationally for its significance to shorebirds as part of the Grays Harbor Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network. Each year, shorebirds make a seemingly impossible journey along the Pacific coast, traveling thousands of miles southward in the fall to reach their wintering areas as distant as South America. The following spring they return to their nesting grounds in Alaska and Canada.

To achieve this feat, thousands of shorebirds require key rest areas. Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge plays an important role in this respect: twice a day the tides recede, providing a vast expanse of mudflat habitat where migrating birds forage and rest during their long journey. This spectacular natural phenomenon provides visitors and students alike an opportunity to observe, photograph, and learn about these shorebirds and other local wildlife in their native habitats.

The Refuge works in partnership with others to protect and enhance the biological integrity and natural functions of the estuary for migratory birds and other native fish and wildlife, using adaptive management to respond to changing environmental and climatic conditions. Located in a gateway community of the Olympic Peninsula, the Refuge provides opportunities for adults and children to enjoy the outdoors, observe wildlife, and foster a lifelong connection with nature.

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Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge

Draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan

and Environmental Assessment

Prepared by:

Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge Complex 100 Brown Farm Road

Olympia, Washington 98516

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Pacific Region Planning Team

911 NE 11th Avenue Portland, Oregon 97232

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Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge Draft CCP/EA

Table of Contents i

Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction and Background ...................................................................................... 1-1

1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1-1

1.2 Significance of the Refuges ...................................................................................................... 1-1

1.2.1 Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ..................................................................... 1-1

1.2.2 Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................. 1-2

1.3 Proposed Action ........................................................................................................................ 1-2

1.4 Purpose and Need for Action .................................................................................................... 1-3

1.5 Legal and Policy Guidance ....................................................................................................... 1-4

1.6 Refuge Establishment and Purposes ......................................................................................... 1-7

Purposes for Establishing Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge in 1990: .................. 1-7

Purposes for Establishing the Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge in 1998: ................................................................................................. 1-8

1.7 Relationship to Other Planning Efforts ................................................................................... 1-11

1.8 Special Designation Lands ...................................................................................................... 1-19

1.9 Planning Process and Issue Identification .............................................................................. 1-20

1.10 Refuge Visions and Goals ..................................................................................................... 1-22

1.10.1 Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge Vision ..................................................... 1-22

1.10.2 Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge Goals ....................................................... 1-22

1.10.3 Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge Vision ... 1-23

1.10.4 Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge Goals .... 1-23

1.11 References ............................................................................................................................. 1-25

Chapter 2. Management Alternatives ............................................................................................. 2-1

2.1 Alternatives Development ........................................................................................................ 2-1

2.2 Alternatives Considered but Eliminated from Detailed Study ................................................. 2-1

Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ..................................................................... 2-1 2.2.1 Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................. 2-2 2.2.2

2.3 Alternative Descriptions ........................................................................................................... 2-4

Features Common to All Alternatives ........................................................................ 2-4 2.3.1 Features Common to All Alternatives at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge .... 2-9 2.3.2

Features Common to All Alternatives at the ..................................................................... 2-11

Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ................ 2-11 2.3.3 Summary of Alternatives .......................................................................................... 2-12 2.3.4

2.4 Goals, Objectives, and Strategies ........................................................................................... 2-17

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Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................... 2-18 2.4.1Goal 1. Protect, maintain, and restore estuarine habitats representative of the Grays Harbor ecosystem for the benefit of shorebirds, other migratory birds, fish, and a diverse assemblage of other native species. ............................................................................... 2-18

Goal 2. Protect and maintain upland habitat representative of the Grays Harbor ecosystem for the benefit of migratory passerines and other wildlife. ............................................ 2-23

Goal 3. Contribute to the protection and long-term environmental health of the Refuge and greater Grays Harbor estuary and ecosystem. ......................................................... 2-24 Goal 4. Collect scientific information (inventories, monitoring, and research) necessary to support adaptive management decisions.. ...................................................................... 2-26 Goal 5. Provide quality opportunities for visitors to observe and photograph a diversity of wildlife and habitats to enhance visitors’ understanding and appreciation of the Refuge’s natural resources and to foster a connection with nature. .............................................. 2-34 Goal 6. Provide environmental education opportunities that initiate a sense of wonder and foster a connection with nature and the Refuge for students bon on and off the Refuge .. 2-39 Goal 7. Support and strengthen an active volunteer work force and Friends Groups to assist in providing quality visitor services programs and outreach. .............................. 2-43

Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ................ 2-47 2.4.2Goal 1. Protect, maintain, and enhance aquatic habitats characteristic of the upper Black River Watershed while maintaining historical characteristics of the north Puget Trough Lowlands for the benefit of native fish, amphibians, migratory birds, and a diverse assemblage of other native species. ............................................................................... 2-47

Goal 2. Protect and maintain upland habitats characteristic of the upper Black River watershed. ...................................................................................................................... 2-60

Goal 3. Contribute to the protection and long-term environmental health of the greater Black River watershed and ecosystem. .......................................................................... 2-64

Goal 4. Gather scientific information (inventories, monitoring, and research) to support adaptive management decisions. .................................................................................... 2-66

Goal 5. Provide quality opportunities for visitors to experience a diversity of wildlife and habitats to enhance their understanding and appreciation of the Black River Unit’s natural resources and foster a connection with nature. .............................................................. 2-74

Goal 6. Support and develop an active volunteer program and partnerships to assist in providing quality visitor services programs and outreach. ............................................ 2-76

2.5 References ............................................................................................................................... 2-79

Chapter 3. Physical Environment ................................................................................................... 3-1

3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 3-1

Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ..................................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................. 3-1 3.1.2

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3.2 Climate ...................................................................................................................................... 3-1

3.3 Hydrology ............................................................................................................................... 3-17

3.4 Topography ............................................................................................................................. 3-21

3.5 Geology ................................................................................................................................... 3-21

3.6 Soils ........................................................................................................................................ 3-22

3.7 Air Quality .............................................................................................................................. 3-24

3.8 Water Quality and Quantity .................................................................................................... 3-24

3.9 Surrounding Land Use ............................................................................................................ 3-28

3.10 References ............................................................................................................................. 3-30 Chapter 4. Biological Environment ................................................................................................. 4-1

4.1 Biological Integrity, Diversity, and Environmental Health ...................................................... 4-1

4.1.1 Historical Land Use and Conditions ........................................................................... 4-2

Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge .......................................................................... 4-2

Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ....................... 4-2

4.2 Selection of Priority Resources of Concern .............................................................................. 4-4

4.3 Habitat Types ......................................................................................................................... 4-11

Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................ 4-11

4.3.1 Tidal Open Water ...................................................................................................... 4-11

4.3.2 Intertidal Mudflat ...................................................................................................... 4-12

4.3.3 Tidal Salt and Brackish Marsh .................................................................................. 4-14

4.3.4 Forest......................................................................................................................... 4-15

Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ......................... 4-16

4.3.5 Channel Habitat ........................................................................................................ 4-16

4.3.6 Tributary Channel Habitat ........................................................................................ 4-19

4.3.7 Bog ............................................................................................................................ 4-20

4.3.8 Shrub Swamp ............................................................................................................ 4-21

4.3.9 Riparian Forest ......................................................................................................... 4-23

4.3.10 Emergent Marsh ...................................................................................................... 4-25

4.3.11 Seasonally Flooded, Nonnative Grasslands Overview ........................................... 4-27

4.3.12 Dry, Nonnative Grasslands ..................................................................................... 4-28

4.3.13 Mixed Forest ........................................................................................................... 4-29

4.4 Major Species Groups ............................................................................................................. 4-30

4.4.1 Fish ............................................................................................................................ 4-30

4.4.2 Waterfowl ................................................................................................................. 4-34

4.4.3 Water Birds ............................................................................................................... 4-34

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4.4.4 Shorebirds ................................................................................................................. 4-35 4.4.5 Raptors ...................................................................................................................... 4-36 4.4.6 Landbirds and Passerines .......................................................................................... 4-37 4.4.7 Mammals................................................................................................................... 4-39 4.4.8 Reptiles and Amphibians .......................................................................................... 4-40 4.4.9 Invertebrates .............................................................................................................. 4-41 

4.5 Threatened, Endangered, and Sensitive Species ..................................................................... 4-42 4.5.1 Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................... 4-42 4.5.2 Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ................ 4-44 

4.6 Invasive and Nuisance Species ............................................................................................... 4-47 4.6.1 Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................... 4-49 4.6.2 Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ................ 4-53 

4.7 Biotic Responses to Climate Change ...................................................................................... 4-58 4.7.1 Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................... 4-58 4.7.2 Black River Unit ....................................................................................................... 4-60 

4.8 Wildlife and Habitat Research, Inventory, and Monitoring ................................................... 4-62 4.8.1 Wildlife and Habitat Research and Monitoring Efforts ............................................ 4-62 

4.9 References ............................................................................................................................... 4-71 Chapter 5. Human Environment ..................................................................................................... 5-1 

5.1 Cultural and Historical Resources ............................................................................................ 5-1 5.2 Infrastructure and Facilities ...................................................................................................... 5-9 5.3 Recreation Overview .............................................................................................................. 5-10 5.4 Wildlife Observation and Photography .................................................................................. 5-12 5.5 Interpretation and Outreach .................................................................................................... 5-12 5.6 Environmental Education ....................................................................................................... 5-13 5.7 Volunteers ............................................................................................................................... 5-15 5.8 Law Enforcement .................................................................................................................... 5-15 5.9 Area Outdoor Recreational Opportunities .............................................................................. 5-16 5.10 Recreation Trends ................................................................................................................. 5-18 5.11 Special Designations ............................................................................................................. 5-19 5.12 Socioeconomic Environment ................................................................................................ 5-20 5.13 References ............................................................................................................................. 5-25 

Chapter 6. Environmental Consequences ....................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 6-1 

6.1.1 Effect Ratings Description .......................................................................................... 6-1 

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6.1.2 Summary of Effects .................................................................................................... 6-2

6.2 Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................... 6-5

6.2.1 Effects Common to All Alternatives at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ...... 6-5

6.2.2 Effects to the Physical Environment at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ...... 6-8

6.2.3 Effects Common to All Habitats and Wildlife at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................................................................ 6-10

6.2.4 Effects to Estuarine Habitats and Associated Species at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge .................................................................................................................. 6-12

6.2.5 Effects to Forest Habitat and Associated Species at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................................................................ 6-14

6.2.6 Effects to Threatened and Endangered Species at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................................................................ 6-15

6.2.7 Effects to Visitor Services at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge .................... 6-16

6.2.8 Effects to Opportunities for Quality Wildlife Observation, Photography, Interpretation, and Environmental Education Experiences at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................................................................ 6-17

6.2.9 Effects to Cultural Resources at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ............... 6-18

6.2.10 Effects to the Economy at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ...................... 6-18

6.2.11 Cumulative Effects at Grays Harbor National Wildlife Refuge ............................. 6-27

6.3 Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .............................. 6-28

6.3.1 Effects Common to All Alternatives at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................................... 6-28

6.3.2 Effects to the Physical Environment at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................................... 6-32

6.3.3 Effects Common to All Habitats and Wildlife at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................................................................................. 6-35

6.3.4 Effects to River and Tributary Channels and Associated Species at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ...................................................... 6-36

6.3.5 Effects to Bog Habitats and Associated Species at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................................................................................. 6-38

6.3.6 Effects to Shrub Swamp and Associated Species at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................................................................................. 6-39

6.3.7 Effects to Riparian Habitat and Associated Species at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ............................................................................. 6-40

6.3.8 Effects to Emergent Marsh Habitat and Associated Species at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .......................................................... 6-41

6.3.9 Effects to Seasonally Flooded, Nonnative Grassland and Associated Species at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................................... 6-43

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6.3.10 Effects to Dry, Nonnative Grassland Habitat and Associated Species at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .............................................. 6-44

6.3.11 Effects to Mixed Forest Habitat and Associated Species at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................... 6-46

6.3.12 Effects to Threatened and Endangered Species at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................................................................................. 6-47

6.3.13 Effects to Social Environment at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................................... 6-48

6.3.14 Effects to Opportunities for Quality Wildlife Observation and Photography at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................................... 6-48

6.3.15 Effects to Cultural Resources at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge ................................................................................................... 6-49

6.3.16 Effects to Economy at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................................................................................................................. 6-50

6.3.17 Cumulative Effects at Black River Unit of Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge .................................................................................................................. 6-54

6.4 References ............................................................................................................................... 6-56

Appendices

Appendix A. Appropriate Use Findings ............................................................................................ A-1

Compatibility Determinations ...................................................................................... B-1 Appendix B.Appendix C. Implementation ............................................................................................................. C-1

Appendix D. Wilderness .................................................................................................................... D-1

Appendix E. Biological Resources of Concern ................................................................................. E-1

Appendix F. Statement of Compliance .............................................................................................. F-1

Appendix G. Integrated Pest Management ........................................................................................ G-1

Appendix H. Abbreviations and Glossary ......................................................................................... H-1

Appendix I. CCP Team Members and Contributors ........................................................................... I-1

Appendix K. List of Grays Harbor NWR Species ............................................................................. K-1

Appendix L. List of Black River Unit Species .................................................................................. L-1

Appendix M. Grays Harbor Nature Center Plans ............................................................................. M-1

Appendix N. Maps ............................................................................................................................. N-1

Tables

Table 1-1. Land Ownership Status ...................................................................................................... 1-9

Table 1-2. Grays Harbor NWR - Land Acquisition/Funding Authorities .......................................... 1-9

Table 1-3. Black River Unit - Land Acquisition/Funding Authorities ............................................. 1-10

Table 2-1. Grays Harbor NWR Summary of Alternatives by Issue. ................................................ 2-13

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Table 2-2. Black River Unit Summary of Alternatives by Issue. .................................................... 2-15

Table 3-1. Hoquiam/Bowerman: Air Temperature and Precipitation Summaries, 1953–2012 (WRCC 2015a, 2015b). .................................................................................................................................... 3-2

Table 3-2. Olympia Area: Air Temperature and Precipitation Summaries, 1948–2012 (WRCC 2015c, 2015f). ................................................................................................................................................. 3-4

Table 4-1a. Priority Resources of Concern with Focal Resources and Other Benefitting Species—Grays Harbor Refuge .......................................................................................................................... 4-6

Table 4-1b. Priority Resources of Concern with Focal Species and Other Benefitting Species—Black River Unit ............................................................................................................................................ 4-8

Table 4-2a. Grays Harbor Research, Inventory, and Monitoring Projects (past and current) .......... 4-62

Table 4-2b. Black River Unit Research, Inventory, and Monitoring Projects (past and current) ..... 4-67

Table 5-1. Summary of Landscape Descriptions on GLO survey maps in the vicinity of Black River.............................................................................................................................................................. 5-6

Table 5-2. Ranking of Major Activity Areas of Washington State Residents (RCO 2013). ............ 5-18

Table 5-3. Projected Future Increase in Participation for Selected Outdoor Recreation Activities.. 5-19

Table 5-4. Grays Harbor NWR: Summary of Area Economy, 2011 (Population & Employment in thousands; Per Capita Income in 2011 dollars) ................................................................................ 5-20

Table 5-5. Industry Summary for Grays Harbor County (Dollars in thousands) .............................. 5-22

Table 5-6. Black River Unit: Summary of Area Economy, 2011 (Population & Employment in thousands; Per Capita Income in 2011 dollars) ................................................................................ 5-23

Table 5-7. Employment Summary for Thurston County, 2011 ........................................................ 5-23

Table 6-1. Summary of Effects under CCP Alternatives for Grays Harbor NWR. ............................ 6-3

Table 6-2. Summary of Effects under CCP Alternatives for the Black River Unit. ........................... 6-4

Table 6-3. Grays Harbor NWR FY2011 Visitation .......................................................................... 6-21

Table 6-4. Grays Harbor NWR Alternative 1: Visitor Recreation Expenditures (2011 dollars in thousands) ......................................................................................................................................... 6-22

Table 6-5. Grays Harbor NWR Alternative 1: Local Economic Effects Associated with Recreation Visits (2011 dollars in thousands) ..................................................................................................... 6-22

Table 6-6. Grays Harbor NWR Alternative 2: Projected Annual Refuge Visitation ........................ 6-23

Table 6-7. Grays Harbor NWR Alternative 2: Visitor Recreation Expenditures (2011 dollars in thousands) ......................................................................................................................................... 6-24

Table 6-8. Grays Harbor NWR Alternative 2: Local Economic Effects Associated with Recreation Visits (2011 dollars in thousands) ..................................................................................................... 6-24

Table 6-9. Annual Economic Effects Associated with Recreation Visits (2011 dollars in thousands) ........................................................................................................................................................... 6-24

Table 6-11. Local Annual Economic Effects Associated with Average Annual Refuge Budget (2011 dollars in thousands) ......................................................................................................................... 6-25

Table 6-12. Summary of Annual Economic Impacts for Alternative 1 (2011 dollars in thousands)6-26

Table 6-13. Summary of Annual Economic Impacts for Alternative 2 (2011 dollars in thousands)6-27

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Table 6-14. Alternatives 2: Projected Annual Unit Visitation .......................................................... 6-50

Table 6-15. Alternatives 2: Visitor Recreation Expenditures (2011 dollars in thousands) .............. 6-51

Table 6-16. Alternatives 2: Local Economic Effects Associated with Recreation Visits (2011 dollars in thousands) ..................................................................................................................................... 6-51

Table 6-17. Annual Economic Effects Associated with Recreation Visits (2011 dollars in thousands)........................................................................................................................................................... 6-52

Table 6-18. Average Annual Expenditures (2011 dollars in thousands) .......................................... 6-52

Table 6-19. Local Annual Economic Effects Associated with Average Annual Unit Budget (2011 dollars in thousands) ......................................................................................................................... 6-52

Table 6-20. Change in Annual Expenditures Compared to the Baseline (Alternative 1) (2011 dollars in thousands) ..................................................................................................................................... 6-53

Table 6-21. Summary of Annual Economic Impacts for Alternative 1 (2011 dollars in thousands)6-54

Figures Figure 3-1. Global annual average temperature and CO2 concentrations, 1880–2008. Source: USGCRP (2009). ................................................................................................................................ 3-6 Figure 3-2. Average annual temperature trends (1920–2000) in the Pacific Northwest. Increases (decreases) are indicated with red (blue) dots. The size of the dot corresponds to the magnitude of change (CIG 2012c). .......................................................................................................................... 3-7 Figure 3-3. Average annual precipitation trends (1920–2000) in the Pacific Northwest. Increases (decreases) are indicated with blue (red) dots. The size of the dot corresponds to the magnitude of change (CIG 2012c) ............................................................................................................................ 3-7 Figure 3-4. Changes in Pacific Northwest snowpack and streamflow runoff timing . (Left) Relative trend in April 1st snowpack (snow water equivalent) during 1950–2000 (CIG 2012c). (Right) Observed changes in timing of snowmelt runoff (center of mass flow) during 1948–2000 (Stewart et al. [2005:Figure 2]). ............................................................................................................................ 3-7 Figure 3-5. Annual mean, minimum, and maximum air temperatures for Grays Harbor NWR during 1895–2011 and 1981–2011 (red regression lines and text). Annual temperatures are the means of the 12 monthly values (January through December). Source of monthly data: PRISM Climate Group (2012). ................................................................................................................................................. 3-9 Figure 3-6. Annual precipitation (January through December) totals for Grays Harbor NWR during 1895–2011 and 1981–2011 (red regression line and text). Source of monthly data: PRISM Climate Group (2012). ...................................................................................................................................... 3-9 Figure 3-7. Annual mean, minimum, and maximum air temperatures for the Black River Unit, Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually NWR, during 1895–2011 and 1981–2011 (red regression lines and text). Annual temperatures are the means of the 12 monthly values (January through December). Source of monthly data: PRISM Climate Group (2012). .................................................................................. 3-10 Figure 3-8. Annual precipitation (January through December) totals for the Black River Unit, Nisqually NWR, during 1895–2011 and 1981–2011 (red regression line and text). Source of monthly data: PRISM Climate Group (2012). ................................................................................................ 3-10

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Figure 3-9. Seasonal temperatures (left) and precipitation (right) for the Grays Harbor and Lower Chehalis River HUC4 basins. Projections were for the A1B SRES Scenario. Bars and error bars represent the average and range of 10 climate models (CIG 2012b). .............................................. 3-12 Figure 3-10. Seasonal temperatures (A) and precipitation (B) for the Upper Chehalis River HUC4 basin. Projections were for the A1B SRES Scenario. Bars and error bars represent the average and range of 10 climate models (CIG 2012b).......................................................................................... 3-13 Figure 3-11. Combined average daily flows (baseflow + runoff) for the Upper Chehalis River HUC4 basin. Projections were for the A1B SRES scenario. Bars and error bars represent the average and range of 10 climate models. Runoff represents mean flow across the watershed (not routed through stream channels; Elsner and Hamlet 2010) (CIG 2012b). ................................................................ 3-13 Figure 3-12. Projected sea level rise for the U.S. Pacific coast for 2030, 2050, and 2100. Red dashed line added to show approximate latitude for Grays Harbor, WA . Source: NRC (2012) ................. 3-15 Figure 3-13. Average tidal range recorded at the mouth of Grays Harbor estuary 2006–2012. ....... 3-19 Figure 5-1. Grays Harbor County’s population and employment over the last 10 years. In 2007, employment peaked at 33,792 and has since decreased to 30,382 in 2011, which is a 10 percent decrease. Employment changes were primarily in the construction and manufacturing sectors that experienced an increase in the first half of the decade and a subsequent decline in the latter half of the decade. .............................................................................................................................................. 5-21

Maps

Map 1. Chehalis Basin Overview. ..................................................................................................... N-1 Map 2. Grays Harbor NWR Habitats. ................................................................................................ N-1 Map 3. Grays Harbor NWR Alternative 1. ........................................................................................ N-1 Map 4. Black River Unit Alternative 1. ............................................................................................. N-1 Map 5. Black River Unit Habitats. ..................................................................................................... N-1 Map 6. Grays Harbor NWR Alternative 2. ........................................................................................ N-1 Map 7. Black River Unit Alternative 2. ............................................................................................. N-1

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