U.S. Energy Market Outlook

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

U.S. Energy Market Outlook

forUnited States Association for Energy EconomicsNovember 7, 2012 | Austin, TX

byAdam Sieminski, Administrator

New York City metropolitan area gas station availability

2Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012

2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov 5-Nov0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

power but no inventories inventories but no powerno response gas stations available

percent of gas stations

Source: EIA Emergency Gasoline Availability Survey


10/29 10/30 10/31 11/1 11/2 11/3 11/4 11/5 11/610/29 10/30 10/31 11/1 11/2 11/3 11/4 11/5 11/60

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

Hurricane Sandy Power Outagesmillion customers

DEMERINHVAMDMAOHWVCTPANYNJOther

Hurricane Irene total outages

Sandy

Irene

Notes: Other states include: North Carolina, Vermont, Kentucky, District of Columbia, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois. Source: EIA based on U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery and Reliability situation reports. Data reflects most recent reports available through November 5, 10:00 AM EDT.

Electric customer outages and restoration times from Hurricane Sandy


Four basic principles:

• Better, faster, cheaper

• Best practices

• Faster delivery

• More good people

5

Recent changes in the heating oil market

Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012

Heating fuel market shares vary regionally

6

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012

DC

Number of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region, winter 2012-13

Northeast

South

Midwest

West

U.S. total115 million homes

natural gas

propaneheating oilelectricity

woodkerosene/other/no heating


U.S. current population-weighted heating degree-days

The U.S. winter 2012-13 heating season forecast is about 2% warmer than the 30-year average, but 18% colder than last winter

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 (NOAA forecast)

7

Note: Horizontal bars indicate monthly average degree days over the period 1971-2000.Source: EIA calculations based on NOAA state history and forecasts (August 15, 2012) weighted by same-year populations.


Expenditures are expected to increase this winter (October 1– March 31) for all fossil fuels

Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast)

Fuel billBase case

forecastIf 10% warmer than forecast

If 10% colder than forecast

Heating oil 19 7 32

Natural gas 15 3 28

Propane * 13 - -

Electricity 5 2 11

* Propane expenditures are a volume-weighted average of the Northeast and Midwest regions. All others are U.S. volume-weighted averages. Propane prices in warm and cold cases are not available.

8



Heating oil remains much more expensive than natural gas

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-130

5

10

15

20

25

30

natural gas heating oil

9

U.S. average residential winter heating fuel pricesdollars per million Btu

forecasthistory

Winter (October - March)



10

Key issues in the domestic fuel market



Lower 48 oil and gas shale plays and federal lands

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior ‘s National Atlas of the United States

12

Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

Eagle FordBakkenGranite WashBone SpringMontereyWoodfordNiobraraSpraberryAustin Chalk

tight oil production for select playsmillion barrels of oil per day

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120

5

10

15

20

25

30

Rest of US

Bakken

Eagle Ford

Marcellus

Haynesville

Woodford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Antrim

shale gas production (dry)billion cubic feet per day


Sources shale gas: Lippman Consulting, Inc. gross withdrawal estimates as of August 2012 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.

Source tight oil: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through June 2012.

13

15

20

25

30

U.S. dry natural gastrillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012

ProjectionsHistory 2010

Consumption

Domestic production

U.S. becomes a net natural gas exporter in 2022

5%

11%Net imports, 2010

Net exports, 2035



Bakken production on federal, non-federal and BIA lands

Source: EIA

15

U.S. leads the league table for non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth over the next two years

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Can

ada

Col

ombi

a

Rus

sia

Chi

na

Kaz

akhs

tan

Bra

zil

Indi

a

Vie

tnam

Om

an

Gab

on

Egy

pt

Mal

aysi

a

Aus

tralia

Oth

er N

orth

Sea

Aze

rbai

jan

Mex

ico

Syr

ia

Nor

way

Sud

an

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2012 2013

Source: EIA ,Short-Term Energy Outlook October 2012

change in production from previous yearmillion barrels per day


16

U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines…moves even lower in various side case scenarios

0

5

10

15

20

25

U.S. liquid fuel supplymillion barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012


ProjectionsHistory 2010

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net petroleum imports 49%36%

60%

2005

15%High TRR/Vehicle Policy caseNet imports, 2005

Netimports,

2035


17

Estimated unplanned production disruptions among non-OPEC producers, through October 2012

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb-1

2

Mar-1

2

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2Ju

l-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

YemenUnited StatesSyriaSudan/S. SudanNorth SeaMexicoColombiaChinaCanadaBrazilAustraliaArgentina

thousand barrels per day

Source: EIA Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran Report, October 2012


18

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001-2011 average Surplus Capacity

million barrels per day


forecast

19

EIA updates state level datasets with mapping features and energy infrastructure datasets

Source: EIA

Interactive map links to state level energy data


For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer


http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

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U.S. Energy Market Outlook