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US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
SWIMS Hawaii Hurricane Inundation Fast Forecast Tool
Jane McKee Smith, Andrew B. Kennedy, Alexandros A. Taflanidis, Joannes J. Westerink,
Kwok Fai Cheung, and Thomas D. Smith
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Introduction• Island communities are vulnerable to storms
• Nowhere to evacuate
• Infrastructure within hazard zone
• Unique/Important Island Features & PhysicsSteep slopes
Reef roughness
Reef flat dynamics (ponding, wave reformation)
Importance of waves
Growth of long waves
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Pacific Islands Land-Ocean Typhoon (PILOT) Exp.
Surge & Wave Island Modeling Studies (SWIMS)
Products• Field data sets:
• Guam• Saipan• Oahu, Hawaii• St. Croix, VI
• Laboratory Data Sets (2D/3D)• Model Improvements• Fast Forecasting System
Objectives:
•Collect coastal processes data under typhoon and high-wave conditions in island environments
•Improve model physics and tools for island application for emergency management and design
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
SWIMS Fast Forecasting System• Pre-run storms with high-fidelity models
• ADCIRC
• unSWAN
• BOUSS-1D
• Create database of response
• Develop surrogate model to forecast inundation• Deterministic
• Probabilistic
• Hurricane Evacuation Studies Mass Management System • Interface for Emergency Managers (MMS)
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Potential Impacts
• Cat 4 storm on Oahu• Severe damage to air & sea ports• Island-wide power and communications outages (1 month
or longer)• 80% of homes destroyed• 650,000 people seeking shelter
• Since 1950:• Nina (1957)• Dot (1959)• Iwa (1982)• Estelle (1986)• Iniki (1992)
Hurricane InikiHurricane Iniki
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
•Five base storm tracks from hurricane climatology (NWS)
•Tracks shifted to give different landfall locations
•Tracks and parameters varied to give a matrix of potential storms (bound most possible landfall scenarios)
Storm Selection: Tracks
A (120°)
B (150°)
C (180°)
D (210°)
E (240°)
165° W 160°W 155
°W 150
° W 145° W
10° N
15°N
20°N
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Storm Selection
• Base Tracks• 120,150,180, 210, 240
deg
• Central Pressure• 940, 955, 970 mb
• Radius of Maximum Winds• 30, 45, 60 km
• Forward Speeds• 7.5, 15, 22.5 kts
• 15 Landfall Locations (Oahu and Kauai)
A (120°)
B (150°)
C (180°)
D (210°)
E (240°)
165° W 160°W 155
°W 150
° W 145° W
10° N
15°N
20°N
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Wave and surge prediction (high-fidelity model)• High-resolution grid Oahu and Kauai
• SWAN+ADCIRC wave and circulation models
• Validation with tides and Hurricane Iniki
Wave runup prediction
• BOUSS-1D
Wave, surge, and runup inundation database and predictions for new events
• Surrogate modeling
Wave, Surge, and Runup Inundation Database
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
• Domain incorporates Hawaiian Islands and north central Pacific Ocean
• Grid resolution ranges from 30 m on land and in the nearshore to 5000 m in deep water
• Incorporates high resolution features, channels, coral reefs and wave breaking zones
• 1,590,637 nodes
• 3,527,785 elements
Grid Domain
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
• ADCIRC solves for water surface elevations and currents in two dimensions
• SWAN solves the wave action density and is a phase-averaged wave model with wave energy represented by a spectrum
• ADCIRC passes water elevation and currents to SWAN
• SWAN passes wave radiation stresses to ADCIRC
• Models run on in parallel on the same grid
SWAN+ADCIRC Model – Coupled Waves and Currents on Unstructured Grids
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Hurricane Iniki (1992)
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Hurricane Iniki Water Levels
NOAA water elevation gauges
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Storm Atlas
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Wave Height (ft) for Category 4 storm, forward speed of 7.5 knots
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Wave Height (ft) for Category 4 storm, forward speed of 22.5 knots
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
• SWAN+ADCIRC gives wave heights and still water levels near shore
• Wave runup (intermittent wave inundation at the shore) can be dominant in some storms
• Hundreds of meters inland, several meters more elevation than still water level
• During Hurricane Iniki (6-8m)
• Two approaches to wave runup
• Parameterized relations predict runup given the significant wave height, wave period, and basic nearshore bathymetry
• Boussinesq modeling along one-dimensional transects
• Hawaiian topography too complex to use parameterized results
Wave Runup Analyses
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
• Use one dimensional Boussinesq model BOUSS-1D to compute runup over 750 transects on Oahu, 443 on Kauai
• Phase resolving - represents each individual wave through time and space
• Forced by waves and water level at offshore boundary of transect
• Precompute runup for a matrix of storms and water levels
• SWAN+ADCIRC computations of waves, water level projected onto pre-computed results to give runup for any storm
Wave Runup Analyses
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Time(s)
Time(s)
Time(s)
Run
up
Ele
vatio
n (m
)C
ross
-sho
re
Dis
tanc
e (m
)O
ffsho
re w
ave
time
serie
s (m
)
Wave Runup Analyses: Boussinesq Model Output along a Transect
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
160 W 158
W 156
W 154
W
18 N
20 N
22 N
• Pre-run suite of basis hurricane scenarios
• Moving least-squares response surface surrogate model
• Predict the output for any new hurricane scenario
Basis hurricane scenarios
New hurricane scenario
Surrogate Model
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
1
1
1
3.5
3.5
3.5
6
6
6
8.5
8.5
11
11
11
13.5
13.5
13.5
16
16
16
16
16
16
18.5
18.5
18.5
18.5
18.5
21
21
21
21
21
23.5
23.5
23.5
23.5
26
26
2626
26
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
31
31
31
31
31
31
33.5
33.5
33.5
33.533
.5
33.5
33.5
36
36 36
36
26
26 26
38.5
38.5
38.5
23.5
23.5
21
21
18.5
18.5
16
16
13.5
13.5
11
11
8.5
8.5
6
6
3.5
3.5 13.5
13.5
1
1
11
11
3636
8.5
8.566
3.5
3.511
13.5118.563.51
13.5118.56
28.5
3.51
36
41
-159.5 -159 -158.5 -158 -157.5 -157 -156.5
20.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
Feet
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Comparison of Hurricane Output Predictions
Surrogate model predictions
1
1
1
3.5
3.5
3.5
6
6
6
8.5
8.5
11
11
13.5
13.5
13.5
16
16
16
16
16
18.5
18.5
18.5
18.5
18.5
21
21
21
21
21
23.5
23.5
23.5
23.5
23.5
26
26
26
26
26
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
28.5
31
31
31
31
31
31
33.5
33.5
33.5
33.5
33.5
33.5
33.5
36
36 36
36
38.5
38.5
38.5
26
26 2623.5
23.5
21
21
18.5
18.5
16
16
13.5
13.5
11
11
8.5
8.5
6
6
3.5
3.5 13.513
.5
11
36
36
11
118.5
8.566
3.5
3.511
13.5118.563.51
1613.51
18.5
28.5
63.51
26
41
1
-159.5 -159 -158.5 -158 -157.5 -157 -156.5
20.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
Feet
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
High-fidelity model predictions
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Cone of potential tracks
Expected hurricane track
165 W 160
W 155
W 150
W 145
W
10 N
15 N
20 N
• Uncertainty in all hurricane parameters (described by probability models)
• Use the surrogate model to predict•Deterministic scenario
•Average (expected) output
•Output with certain probability of being exceeded
•Probability (%) of exceeding a specific threshold
Current hurricane location
Probabilistic Prediction of Hurricane Output (Risk)
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Graphical User Interface
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Summary• Fast Forecasting Tool provides framework
for dynamic and fast evaluation of waves, surge and inundation
• High-fidelity, high-resolution models to simulation hundreds of hurricanes
• Query the database for deterministic or probabilistic estimates
• Results in seconds to minutes
• Simulations for the Big Island and Maui County are running now (~800 runs)
• Ongoing work in Guam, too…
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Guam• Jackson State U.: Himangshu S. Das and Hoonshin Jung
• Grid: circular domain (6 deg radius ~ 666 km)
• Resolution 14 km to 25 m
• 239,664 nodes and 473,083 elements
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Guam --Validation (Nockten)
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Guam --Validation
(Nida)
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Synthetic Storms for Guam (~750)
US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC
Questions