Ursus Environmental Assessment

Vegetation Report

Christine Lee-McKinney Forester, Bend/Ft. Rock RD

March 30, 2016

Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1

Existing Condition ......................................................................................................................................... 1

Existing Condition- Forested Vegetation .............................................................................................. 4

Existing Condition- Forested Vegetation-Lodgepole Pine Dominated Stands ...................................... 4

Existing Condition- Forested Vegetation- Five Needle Pines ................................................................ 6

Existing Condition- Forested Vegetation Mixed Conifer-See Figure 1 .................................................. 7

Existing Condition - Fire and Fuels ...................................................................................................... 11

Desired Condition ....................................................................................................................................... 13

Desired Condition - Vegetation ........................................................................................................... 13

Desired Condition —Fire and Fuels (Figure 3) ...................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

Purpose and Need for Action ...................................................................................................................... 15

Alternative Description See Table 3 ....................................................................................................... 16

Alternatives include no action, proposed action alternative actions. .................................................... 17

Alternative Description - Alternative One - No Action ........................................................................... 17

Alternative Description - Alternative Two – Proposed Action ................................................................ 17

Alternative Description - Alternative Three ............................................................................................ 22

Regulatory Framework................................................................................................................................ 23

National Forest Management Act (NFMA) ............................................................................................. 23

Policy on Culmination of Mean Annual Increment ................................................................................. 24

Northwest Forest Plan ............................................................................................................................ 24

Basis for Standards and Guidelines ..................................................................................................... 25

Deschutes Land and Management Resource Plan .................................................................................. 26

Forest Wide Standards and Guidelines ............................................................................................... 26

Management Area Standards and Guidelines .................................................................................... 27

Consistency ............................................................................................................................................. 28

Measures ............................................................................................................................................. 29

Methods .............................................................................................................................................. 29

Alternative One, Two and Three Late Structure Old Growth ............................................................. 30

Removal or Girdling of Seed Trees ...................................................................................................... 30

Appropriateness of seed tree and shelterwood harvest methods ..................................................... 30

Shape of seed tree and shelterwood harvest methods ...................................................................... 31

Maximum size of seed tree and shelterwood harvest methods ........................................................ 31

Adequately Restocking Lands following Final Regeneration Harvest ................................................. 31

References .................................................................................................................................................. 33

Tumalo Watershed Analysis ................................................................................................................ 33

Bull Creek Watershed Assessment ..................................................................................................... 34

Environmental Effects ................................................................................................................................. 34

Key Issue-Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests - (Stand Level Structural Diversity) .................. 34

Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests--Measures .................................................................... 35

Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests--Scope and Scale of Analysis ........................................ 35

Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests--Methods ...................................................................... 35

Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forest--Effects--Alternative 1 (No Action) ................................ 36

Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests—Effects--Alternatives 2 and 3 ..................................... 37

Mixed Conifer-Structrual Diversity-Cumulative Effects ...................................................................... 38

Key Issue--Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine ................................................................................... 40

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Introduction ........................................................................ 40

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Scope and Scale of Analysis................................................. 40

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- -- Methods ........................................................................... 41

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Measures ............................................................................. 41

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Alternative One- .................................................................. 41

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Alternative Two ................................................................... 42

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine --Alternative Three ................................................................. 42

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine ................................................................................................. 42

Analysis Issue--Dwarf Mistletoe .............................................................................................................. 47

Dwarf Mistletoe - Existing Condition .................................................................................................. 50

Dwarf Mistletoe --Scope and Scale of Analysis ................................................................................... 50

Dwarf Mistletoe --Measures ............................................................................................................... 51

Dwarf Mistletoe -- Effects --Alternative 1 (No Action) ....................................................................... 51

Dwarf Mistletoe-- Effects --Alternative 2 and 3 .................................................................................. 52

Key Issue-- Retention of Large Trees ...................................................................................................... 55

Retention of Large Trees --Methods ................................................................................................... 56

Retention of Large Trees –Measures .................................................................................................. 56

Retention of Large Trees –Scope and Scale of Analysis ...................................................................... 56

Retention of Large Trees –Effects--Alternative 1 (No Action) ............................................................ 57

Retention of Large Trees –Effects--Alternative 2 ................................................................................ 57

Retention of Large Trees –Effects--Alternative 3 ................................................................................ 58

Retention of Large Trees –Cumulative Effects --Alternatives One, Two and Three ........................... 58

Citations ...................................................................................................................................................... 59

Appendix A LiDAR Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................................................ 61

Appendix B. Forest Vegetation Simulator Modeling Methods ................................................................... 62

FVS Sensitivity Analysis for Crown Closure ......................................................................................... 63

FVS Commands Used for Ursus ........................................................................................................... 64

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Introduction The Forest Service proposes to treat 5,790 net acres (Appendix A) to lessen wildfire intensity and

resistance to control. Proposed treatments are within the range of the northern spotted owl

(Northwest Forest Plan). Treatments are proposed in strategic locations on the landscape such that

firefighters can safely and effectively manage wildfires, with an emphasis on protecting recreation areas,

and the Bear Wallow Inventoried Roadless Area. No treatments are proposed within areas identified in

the Northwest Forest Plan as a) late successional reserves or b) administratively withdrawn areas

classified inventoried roadless areas. No treatments are proposed within areas classified as spotted owl

nesting, roosting, or foraging habitat. No treatments are planned within Deschutes LRMP special

interest areas (MA 1) or research natural areas (MA 2).Treatments are proposed within the following

Northwest Forest Plan allocations: matrix and administratively withdrawn. Deschutes LRMP allocations

included within matrix. are Winter Recreation (MA 13), Old Growth (MA 15) and Front Country Seen and

Unseen (MA 18

Existing Condition The Ursus area is located on the Bend Fort Rock District West of Bend and North of the Skyliner’s road.

The area is bounded on the north by the 4601 road, on the south by the Bridge Creek Burn (1979), on

the west by the Bear Wallows Inventoried Roadless Area and on the East by private land currently held

by Whitefish Cascade, LLC. The area encompasses nearly 6,000 acres of lodgepole pine and mixed

conifer.

The project area is characterized by large areas of down and standing beetle killed lodgepole, intermixed

with dense stands of mixed conifer. Decades of fire exclusion, insect and disease activity, and previous

forest management activities, have contributed to high vertical and horizontal forest fuel loadings. The

current landscape condition, combined with an ignition source, creates an atmosphere where a wildfire

could present a high risk to human safety and loss of vital forest resources. Wildfire in this area could

quickly threaten adjacent private timberland, nearby recreational developments, and the City of Bend

Watershed. From a landscape perspective, this is a key area where treatments can be implemented.

Activities to reduce these hazardous forest fuel levels are limited in the surrounding landscape.

The majority of recreation use in the area is associated with mountain biking along the Mrazek and

Farewell trails. Other uses include; personal woodcutting, dispersed camping and recreational driving.

Forest visitors drive up Triangle Hill or pass through the 4601 to access other recreation opportunities.

The Forest Service 4601-370 road, located on the far west corner of the project is a popular access point

for the Broken Top trailhead, the Metolius Windigo Trail and Three Creeks Lake. In the winter both the

4061 (Triangle Hill Loop) and the 4601-370 (snowmobile trail #8) roads are popular snowmobile routes.

The main road, Forest Service 4601, was built the 1960s. This is the earliest record of any mechanized

management in the Ursus project area. The Forest Service selectively harvested 2,000 acres of the

largest ponderosa pine and white fir. Harvest activities occurred on the buttes and south facing slopes

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where elevation provided relief from cold air drainage. Cold air drainages are dominated by lodgepole

pine. In sites that remained partially stocked, suppressed, immature or diseased ponderosa pine was left

in the stand. The disturbance caused by the overstory removal, coupled with fire suppression efforts

allowed lodgepole pine and white fir to populate the site, shading out the less shade tolerant ponderosa

pine. This disturbance drastically changed the composition and structure size of these stands (Bear

wallow-Triangle Landscape Assessment, 2008). Ponderosa pine remains a small component of these

sites but white fir, lodgepole pine and subalpine fir are now the predominant species. The remnant

larger pines are in poor health due to competition for site resources. Competition for site resources

leads to lowered vigor, growth and increased susceptibility to disturbance agents (Christeansen et al.,

1987).

One third of Ursus was classified as large ponderosa pine by surveys completed in the 1930’s. These

higher productivity areas, capable of

supporting many different species,

remained ponderosa pine dominant due

due to frequent fires which acted to limit

establishment of competing trees

including lodgepole, white fir, and

grand fir. Aerial photos from 1943

show true fir was present as a minor

component of the ponderosa pine

stands, ranging from 5 to 10 percent of

the stands (Lori Blackburn, Forest

Silviculturist).

Figure 1.Previously Harvested Sale Area Map 1967

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Figure 2. Ursus Project Area circa 1943

After the timber harvest, unstocked areas were subsequently planted to lodgepole pine after multiple

failed attempts at reforestation. Forest Service records do not indicate if other species were included in

the reforestation. Harsh site conditions due to vegetation competition, high elevations, short growing

seasons and animal damage is the assumed cause of the failed reforestation attempts. The area has

experienced little additional timber harvest over the last 40 years.

Disturbance agents in this project include: bark beetles, dwarf mistletoe and root disease. Bark beetles

are present across all vegetation types, with the most common ones being mountain pine beetle

(Dendroctonus ponderosae) in the pines and fir engraver beetle (Scolytus ventralis) in white/grand fir.

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Within the watershed, the most recent mountain pine beetle outbreak began about 12 years ago and

tapered off 3 years ago. Dwarf mistletoe is also an important disturbance agent present in the lodgepole

pine (Deschutes National Forest 1995). Root diseases that could be found within mixed conifer and

hemlock stands include laminated root rot (Phellinus weirii), Armillaria (Armillaria ostoyae) root disease

and Annosus (Fomes annosus) root disease.

Existing Condition- Forested Vegetation

Vegetative composition is an important component in understanding, analyzing, and evaluating the

physical, biological, and social processes of an ecosystem. Changes in climate, including soils,

topography, plant succession, and disturbance events yield changes in vegetative composition, species,

structure, and density. Succession and disturbance continually work in concert to change the vegetation

structure, distribution, as well as in processes and ecological function (Bull Creek Watershed

Assessment, 2011). For this analysis the Plant Associations of the Central Oregon Pumice Zone (Volland,

1988) were used as an organizing framework and the ecological basis for silviculture, successional trends

and vegetative mapping. Tree, shrub and forb species commonly found associated with one another are

organized into groups called Plant Association Groups or PAG’s. Plant species and their potential

distribution mapped for the Ursus project vary from cold, upper region, dominated by mixed

conifer/lodgepole pine to warm, dry ponderosa pine stands found throughout the lower elevation areas.

Four PAG’s or general communities of forest vegetation exist (Bull Creek Watershed Assessment, 2011)

in the Ursus Project Area. These include Lodgepole Pine Wet and Dry and Mixed Conifer Wet and Dry.

Existing Condition- Forested Vegetation-Lodgepole Pine Dominated Stands

The wet and dry lodgepole pine PAGs are generally located within an elevation band of 5,000 to 6,800

feet. This is considered high elevation lodgepole. Through natural disturbances and successional

processes, the lodgepole could be replaced over time by mountain hemlock and/or true fir species.

These PAGs encompass forest types Lodgepole Pine/Sedge-Lupine (CLG4-11), Lodgepole Pine/Manzanita

(CLS3-11), Lodgepole Pine/Sedge-Lupine-Penstemon (CLG4-12), and Lodgepole pine/Needle grass Basins

(CLG3-11).

The predominant feature in these lodgepole pine stands is the high levels of mortality caused by

mountain pine beetle. The mountain pine beetle is the most aggressive bark beetle in western North

America. Bark beetles can act as agents of change, affecting ecosystems directly and indirectly. Aerial

Insect and Disease mapping done by the Forest Service, indicates mountain pine beetle started attacking

the lodgepole pine PAGs, as well as the lodgepole pine component of the mixed conifer forests,

beginning around the year 2002 (Bear wallow-Triangle Landscape Assessment, p. 59). This aerial survey

data (Deschutes National Forest, 2014) shows pine beetle attacks expanding and intensifying levels until

the peak of the attack in 2008. By 2005 large areas of the Ursus planning area were affected by beetle

attack that had killed many trees. By 2006, beetles had killed most of the available lodgepole pine and

were beginning to attack ponderosa pine trees in the area. By 2009, the peak of the outbreak had

moved south toward Tumalo Creek although pockets of fresh mortality were still appearing in the Ursus

area.

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Mortality patch sizes were as large as 15 acres in 2007-2008 (USDA Forest Service 2007); covering over

90% of the project area, suggesting this was the peak of the attack. Mountain pine beetle damage in

lodgepole pine mapped by the Forest Service indicates density in tree mortality from the mountain pine

beetle attacks were as high as 10 trees per acre, and ranged from 2-10 trees per acre during the highest

morality in one year. Mountain pine beetle mortality mapped in ponderosa pine, as a result of the vicinity

of mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine was also mapped at 2.5-10 trees per acre. In 2009, mortality

patches were reduced to .25-.5 acres (USDA Forest Service 2009).

Trees targeted by the mountain pine beetle were the oldest and largest lodgepole pine. This resulted in

tree mortality and reduction of the large lodgepole pine overstory structure and conversion of older forest

into early-successional structure classes in the lodgepole pine plant association group. Loss of overstory

structure is less severe in the mixed conifer plant association groups, due to the presence of larger true

fir and scattered ponderosa pine.

Figure 3. Timeline of Beetle Outbreak in Ursus Area 2003-2011

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Lodgepole pine is the dominant species of these forest types. Stands are generally even aged or uneven

aged with one or two age cohorts. Other species present include subalpine fir, western white pine,

Pacific Silver fir, white/grand fir, Douglas fir, whitebark pine and mountain hemlock. The majority of

overstory trees are standing dead due to mountain pine beetle attacks over the last decade (Tumalo

Watershed Assessment, 2008). The remaining live trees are smaller diameter (less than 9” DBH), with

crowns less than 30 percent, western gall rust and moderate to heavy dwarf mistletoe infection. As a

result of beetle mortality, the live trees are arranged in a mosaic of clumps, gaps and, some areas with

no live conifers. Tree canopy cover is discontinuous. Most dead wood is currently standing, but expected

to fall as decay progresses. Lodgepole pine snags in Central Oregon have been found to fail after 5 years

in unmanaged stands, and up to 90% can be down in 14 years (Mitchell and Preisler 1998). Dead wood

will accumulate in gaps created by mountain pine beetle, creating heavy surface fuel loading.

Overstory stocking in the lodgepole prior to mountain pine beetle outbreaks were between 150 to 400

trees per acre with average size of 8 to 14” DBH. Informal exams, LiDAR imagery and aerial photo

calculations show live lodgepole pine stocking levels are between 70-200 trees per acre. Dead trees

range from 50-150 trees per acre. The understory stocking is highly variable.

Existing Condition- Forested Vegetation- Five Needle Pines

White pine blister (Cronartium ribcola) rust was introduced to the United States from Europe in the early

1900s. The disease had a devastating effect on western white pine trees, since they had not evolved

together with the disease. Blister rust also attacks other five needle pines such as whitebark pine,

eastern white pine and sugar pine. Blister rust will not spread from tree to tree. It requires a shrub in the

genus Ribes (gooseberries and currants) as an alternate host to complete its life cycle. The disease goes

back and forth between Ribes family to white pine. Rust infects white pine through the needles. The

fungus then spreads down the branch to the main stem of the tree, where it eventually kills the tree

above that point. The whitebark pine on other parts of the district, including whitebark pine adjacent to

Ursus, on Broken Top and Three Creek Lakes has experienced varying levels of blister rust infection.

The Bend/Ft. Rock Ranger District genetics program has eleven permanent plots that annually record

and monitor the presence, severity and spread of whitepine blister rust in established whitebark pine

stands. Two of these plots are located just north and slightly west of the Ursus project area on the FS

4601370 RD. One plot located at 6,752’ elevation has no recorded infection of blister rust in either

overstory or understory trees. The second plot, located at 6,753’ elevation has an infection rate of 19%

of all live white bark pine and 8% of those trees have active sporulating cankers (in the bole and branch).

The first plot has no mortality recorded. The second plot had 38% mortality, and 100% was caused by

mountain pine beetle.

The presence of white pine blister rust is variable in the project and surrounding area

vicinities. Typically, one can observe the presence of blister rust in any given stand, assuming 5 needle

pines are present; however there are places where it appears absent as well. This variability is hard to

measure across a landscape level. These permanent plots were randomly established and give some

idea of the blister rates at given points (Jensen, personal communication, September 16, 2014).

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Five needle pines, including western white pine and whitebark pine are found dispersed throughout the

project area, but most heavily concentrated in the far western part in the lodgepole pine dominated

stands. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) is a slow-growing, long-lived tree of the high

mountains of southwestern Canada and western United States. It is valued for watershed protection and

esthetics. Concern about the species has arisen because in some areas whitebark pine cone crops have

diminished as a result of successional replacement and insect and disease epidemics (Silvics Manual,

1990). Whitebark pine grows in the high elevation forests and at timberline. Mean annual precipitation

for most stands where whitebark pine is a major component is between 600 and 1800 mm (24 and 72

in). The lower part of this precipitation range applies to mountain ranges in semiarid regions where

whitebark pine forms nearly pure stands or is accompanied only by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var.

latifolia) (Silvics Manual, 1990).

In the Ursus project area, whitebark is accompanied with almost pure lodgepole pine. Trees are

generally small (seedling, pole and saplings)

and young in age. No mature whitebark pine

trees have been observed. The seed sources

of these young trees are most likely from the

mature trees on Broken Top and Three Creeks

Lake. Mature western white pine has been

found on the top of a no name butte north

west of the 4601/4602 junction, in the project

area.

Existing Condition- Forested Vegetation

Mixed Conifer-See Figure 1

The east part of the project area is dominated

by mixed conifer stands. The precipitation

increases moving to the west. The mixed

conifer PAG has an elevation range of 4,800

to 6,800 feet with some patches found as

high as 7,800 feet. The mixed conifer type is

the dominant plant association found within

this elevation zone. Silvicultural prescriptions and analyses are based on the Plant Associations of the

Central Oregon Pumice Zone by Volland 1985. The wildlife analyses utilize Habitat Type Definitions for

DecAid and can be found at http://www.fs.fed.us/r6/nr/wildlife/decaid/pages/Wildlife-Habitat-Type-

Definitions.shtml. There are two specific mixed conifer types present in the Ursus project area. The

difference between the two is the presence or

absence of ponderosa pine. The Montane

Mixed Conifer Forest type encompasses the plant community types that do not include ponderosa pine.

The Eastside Mixed Conifer Forest includes the plant communities with ponderosa pine present (See

Table 1)

Figure 4 Plant Associations in the Ursus Project Area

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Table 1. Ursus Forest Community Comparisons

Plant Association

Group

Plant Associations (Volland 1985)

(Used in the vegetation analysis and silvicultural prescriptions)

DecAid Habitat Definitions

(Used in the wildlife analyses)

Lodgepole Pine Wet

Lodgepole Pine/Grouse Huckleberry (CLG4-11)

Dominated by lodgepole pine. Subalpine fire, mountain hemlock, white pine or Shasta red fir may occur as

regeneration but subordinate t lodgepole pine.

Montane Mixed Conifer

Lodgepole Pine Dry

Lodgepole Pine/ Sedge/ Lupine/Penstemon (CLG4-12)

Dominated by lodgepole pine. White fir, subalpine fir, mountain hemlock. Invasion of lodgepole wherever soil

scarification takes place. Turns into mixed conifer whenever another species is introduced.

Mixed Conifer Wet

Mixed Conifer Manzanita/snowbrush/

Sedge/Penstemon (CWS1-13)

Dominated usually by an overstory of ponderosa pine and white/grand fir. Other species present in the understory as

regeneration. Ponderosa pine and white fir are seen as natural regeneration.

Eastside Mixed Conifer

Mixed Conifer Dry

Mixed Conifer/snowbrush/Sedge (CWS1-15)

Dominated by ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, and white fir. Lodgepole pine is usually subordinate except after logging. White fir, sugar, pine or Shasta Red Fir can be

present as advanced regeneration or overstory. White fir, sugar, pine or Shasta Red Fir can be present as advanced

regeneration or overstory.

Page 9 of 69

Figure 5. Ursus Plant Communities

Both types of mixed conifer forests are composed of a mix of species that include white fir, grand fir,

Douglas fir, mountain hemlock and lodgepole pine. Western white pine and, to a lesser degree, western

larch may be present (see Figure 2). These plant associations occur both on north and south aspects and

will show differences in stand densities, crown and canopy cover, and species mixtures between

aspects.

Structurally, the mixed conifer type is composed of a mixture of small diameter to large diameter trees

(five to 21 inches DBH) and canopy cover of 25-75% percent. Stands are multi-aged, multi-sized and

multi-storied. Overstory trees are generally less fire tolerant white/grand fir. Stocking ranges from 60

square feet of basal area to 220 square feet of basal area/acre. Trees are arranged in thick clumps and

areas that are open due to mountain pine beetle mortality. Ponderosa pine afire resistant species, is a

minor component, being removed from the site in the logging in the 1960s. True fir and lodgepole have

stocked these historically ponderosa pine sites for the past 60 years. The ingrowth of these less fire

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tolerant species are providing thick ladder fuels, allowing a fire to more from a surface fire into the

canopy. Surface fuels consist of short needle conifers and heavy down natural fuels.

The ability of the site to support the current high densities of shade tolerant trees is uncertain. This area

receives between 20-30 inches of precipitation per year, placing it within the eastern Oregon average

annual precipitation ranges 14 to 30 inches for Ponderosa Pine (Silvics Manual). Local studies conducted

on the Deschutes National Forest in white fir have raised doubts about the sustainability of growing

white fir stands on sites below 32 inches of precipitation, even if stocking levels are kept very low

(Cochran et al., 1994).

According to Cochran (1994), stands like these should be managed by using ponderosa pine stocking

guides. These density levels would allow the individual fir trees, intermingled with pine to reach

commercial size at fairly young ages. If drought, disease outbreaks, or severe insect infestation occurs

the white fir could be removed, leaving ponderosa pine on site. The white/grand fir is showing the

vulnerability suggested by Cochran to drought, disease and insects. White/grand fir is heavily infected

with dwarf mistletoe, the fir engraver beetle (generally associated with root rot), and laminated root rot

(Phellinus weirii), Armillria root disease and Annosus root disease in the white/grand fir. Trees are

showing signs of distress, crown discoloration and loss, and in different stages of mortality.

The poor health and vigor of these stands is reflected in the amount of disturbance from insects and

diseases in the project area. Bark beetles are present across all vegetation types, with the most common

ones being mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in the pines and fir engraver beetle

(Scolytus ventralis) in white/grand fir. Heavy dwarf mistletoe infection accompanied with

Mixed conifer treatments are aimed at reducing canopy base heights, crown bulk density and fuel

loadings. It is unlikely that these treatments alone would stop a rapidly moving wildfire displaying

extreme fire behavior. However, the treatments will provide a place for firefighters to attempt to stop a

wildfire through control actions such as backfiring.

A stand’s susceptibility to active crowning (crown fire propagation) is most strongly affected by crown

bulk density and, to a lesser extent, foliar moisture content (Scott, 1998). Foliar moisture content is

dependent on tree species composition and season, and cannot be modified by forest management

except by altering species composition. Crown bulk density can be lowered through over story thinning

and, if the understory is well developed, through ladder fuel thinning. Two scientific papers, The

Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior by James K. Agee (University of Washington) and The

Effects of Thinning and Similar Stand Treatments on Fire Behavior in Western Forests by Russell T.

Graham, Alan E. Harvey, Theresa B. Jain, and Jonalea R. Tonn define how crown bulk density can be used

as a criterion to limit crown fire behavior. By maintaining stands at crown bulk densities of <0.10kg m3

active or independent crown fire activity can be limited (Agee, 1996). Crown bulk densities for

ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir and grand fir are provided by size class and density per hectare (Agee,

1996). These densities allow the critical bulk density to prevent the spread of crown fire to formulate

silvicultural prescriptions.

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Existing Condition - Fire and Fuels

Wildfires have burned millions of hectares in recent decades. In addition to effects on many resources,

such as timber production, water quantity, recreation and wildlife habitat, bark beetle caused tree

mortality may alter fuels and therefore wildlife characteristics (Hicke, 2012). A fire hazard analysis was

completed for the Ursus area. Fire hazard is a combination of potential flame length and crown fire

activity. To rate wildfire hazard, a qualitative matrix in was used. This table was based on the matrix

table used in the Arc Fuels user guide (Vaillant, Ager, Anderson, & Miller, 2012). To receive a low rating,

the predicted flame lengths need to be less than four feet and crown fire activity should be limited to

surface fire or passive (torching) fire. See Fuels and Air Quality Specialist Report Appendix C for data

input used and further information on fire hazard rating.

Although fires have been actively suppressed in the Ursus area for nearly a hundred years, at the stand

level, conditions in fire regime type III and IV are not highly departed from historic conditions due to

naturally long fire return intervals. (See Table 2) However, a considerable fire hazard still exists. For

example, lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy, promoting bark beetle

outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard. Potential modifications to forest fire behavior

following beetle outbreaks could include; possibility of more extreme crown fire behavior in beetle-

killed stands, concern about public safety and structure loss. Firefighting operations may be affected due

to the increase in downed woody debris that poses challenges for suppression and control with more

extreme fire behavior (Hicke et al., 2012). At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large

numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al.

2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation, high

intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests. This scenario occurred during the B&B Fire in the

Metolius Basin in 2003 (Whychus Watershed Assessment Update, 2009). If a fire were to occur in these

high elevations, the extent may be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the

cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time.

Table 2. Ursus planning area Fire Regimes

FIRE REGIME Description PAG ACRES % of Forested Project Area

III 35-100 year return interval, mixed severity

Mixed Conifer 3337 55.9

IV 35-100+ year return interval, stand replacing severity

Lodgepole Pine 2540 42.5

OTHER Non classified, non-vegetated Lava, Rock and Cinder 92 1.6

TOTAL 5969 100

The majority of the project area is comprised of lodgepole pine dominated areas which are best

described by fire regime IV where historically, a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity

could be expected. Currently, much of the lodgepole pine has been infested with mountain pine beetle

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and is near the end of its natural life span. Firewood cutting of the standing wood has reduced fuel

loading along roadways; however a substantial fuel load still exists.

Wildfire and bark beetle outbreaks are major disturbances in the conifer forests of North America, but

there is a lack of consensus in the published literature about how the two interact (Jenkins, 2008). Hicke

et al. (2012) synthesized the effects of bark beetle outbreaks on different fuels and fire characteristics,

and developed a conceptual framework that describes expected patterns of fuels and fire characteristics

as a function of time since outbreak. In conditions where knowledge gaps or disagreement occurs,

Hicke used scientific understanding about bark beetle outbreaks and fuels and fire behavior to suggest

responses.

The conceptual frame work describes the expected patterns of fuels and fire characteristics as a function

of time since the outbreak. After trees are killed, the foliar moisture content decreases. In many species,

such as pine, dead needles fade to red within a year. Following needle drop in 3-5 years (typical for

lodgepole pine) killed trees turn gray. Within one to several decades snags fall (Mitchell). Understory

vegetation increases and new tree seedlings began to establish (Hicke at al. 2012).

Fire behavior in the lodgepole stands would be characterized by high intensity surface fire. There is not

a continuous canopy that would support crown fire in these stands but high levels of dead and down

fuel loading would lead to high surface fire intensities and the large number of snags would make direct

attack firefighting tactics unsafe for ground firefighting resources.

The remainder of the project area is comprised of wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally

be classified into fire regime III where mixed severity fire at a 35 – 100 + year fire return interval was

expected under historical conditions. Surface fire spread rates in the mixed conifer would be relatively

low. The problem fire behavior in mixed conifer is associated with crown fire. Crown fires move fast,

burn at high intensities and show rapid rates of spread. Suppression resources, including retardant

aircraft and heavy machinery, are generally ineffective at stopping crown fires.

The Ursus vegetation is a mosaic of dead lodgepole and live mixed conifer stands. This lack of fuel

continuity would limit the extent of crown fire runs. However, the high density long and short range

spotting associated with crown fire would amplify a fires overall rate of advance. Ursus mixed conifer

stand exam data modeled with FVS shows an average crown bulk density of 0.16 kg/m3. A minimum

value of 0.10 kg/m3 is generally accepted as a crown bulk density critical threshold for active crowning.

In their current condition, mixed conifer stands would be capable of supporting active crown fires.

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Desired Condition

Desired Condition - Vegetation

Mixed Conifer (2015-2045)

The desired condition for the mixed conifer is to reduce crown bulk density to a level that will not

support crown fire under 97th percentile weather conditions and propagate more fire resistant long lived

species. The generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 0.10 kg/m3 (Agee J. K.,

1996). To meet this desired condition, the Ursus action alternatives in mixed conifer are designed to

reduce the likelihood of an uncontrolled fire impacting values at risk.

Desired post treatment mixed conifer fuel loadings can be represented by the following photo series:

PNW-105: 1-MC-3 (For a complete description please see the Fuels Report).

Lodgepole Pine (2015-2030)

The desired condition in the lodgepole pine is to address hazardous vertical and horizontal fuel loadings

and to regenerate and reforest stands decimated by mountain pine beetle.

To achieve this goal the desired surface vegetation would be characterized by potential fire behavior

represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1. (For a complete description please see the Fuels

Report).The primary fuels hazard concerns in the lodgepole pine stands is the potential high surface fire

intensities resulting from the large component of dead and down. To facilitate effective direct attack

with hand crews and equipment, potential flame length will be less than four feet during a mid-summer

wildfire conditions. Seed tree and shelter wood regeneration methods have the potential to reduce the

severity and intensity of wildfires. Open stands with low crown bulk densities would not likely support a

crown fire when the regeneration is short and pre-commercially thinned (Graham et al., 1999).

Desired post treatment lodgepole pine fuel loadings can be represented by the following photo series:

PNW-105: 1-LP-2 or 1-LP-3 (For a complete description please see the Fuels Report).

Due to mountain pine beetle attacks, lodgepole pine stands have large percentages of dead trees.

Regeneration faces a variety of challenges including severe vegetation competition, high gopher

populations and short growing seasons from high elevations. The desired condition from vegetation

management results in a healthy forest where insect damage or diminished productivity due to pests is

limited in scope. Treatments utilize principles and techniques that reduce damage and losses and

prevent future pest problems.

Structural and species diversity is slightly improved. Residual structure retained from previous harvest

as well as no treatment areas; provide increased structure and species diversity. Aggregates of the

largest live trees and hard snags are retained on a portion of each lodgepole pine stand. All minor

species as well as the healthiest lodgepole pine are retained as seed trees. Seed trees (left at 20-40 per

acre) will help establish a new age class for the forest and provide wildlife with dispersed, large green

tree structures.

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Lodgepole Pine (2030—2050)

By this time, regenerated lodgepole pines are freely growing with healthy crowns. Dead trees persist

at a low level where color contrasts are minimal and the full crowns of younger trees create a visually

uniform, primarily dark green, gently rolling landscape (Deschutes LRMP MA-18). Tree density allows

young trees to utilize the site growth potential and develop into relatively large green trees. Due to the

cyclical nature of growth and establishment of lodgepole pine, newly established stands will be

predominantly one age class. Stand diversity has increased over the past few decades as minor species

such as whitebark pine, subalpine fir; mountain hemlock, grand fir, white fir, western white pine, and

ponderosa pine have persisted throughout the stands. Mistletoe levels in treated areas are low,

allowing trees to develop unencumbered by disease and forest health concerns.

Susceptibility to future bark beetle attacks has been reduced; stand densities are able to utilize a

substantial portion of the site resources. Undesirable impacts from insects and disease are greatly

reduced due to increased tree vigor. Where impacts from insects and disease occur, they are the result

of a decision framework that considers the desirable and undesirable roles of insects and disease in the

context of integrated resource management objectives. Stand conditions, including canopy cover and

healthy crowns, contribute to a diverse mosaic of relatively uniform textures desired for lodgepole pine

scenic view middle grounds, foregrounds and backgrounds (Deschutes LRMP MA-18).

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Purpose and Need for Action

Given the existing condition and the values at risk, the Purpose and Need for this project is to:

1. Reduce stand density and fuel continuity to provide increased protection to values at risk from

wildfire including, the Bend Municipal Watershed, Skyliner’s Forest, and forest resources.

To meet the purpose and need of this project, the Ursus action alternatives are designed to reduce the

likelihood of an uncontrolled fire impacting values at risk. The project area falls into the matrix allocation

of the Northwest Forest Plan. The matrix is the area in which most timber harvest and other silvicultural

activities will be conducted. Other management allocations such as Wilderness, Inventoried Roadless

Areas, Private Land, and the Municipal Watershed limit treatment options in the area surrounding

Ursus, making this a key location for treatment. The Northwest Forest Plan recognizes that “the need

for forest products from forest ecosystems is the need for a sustainable supply of timber and other

forest products that will help maintain the stability of local and regional economies, and contribute

valuable resources to the national economy, on a predictable and long-term basis” (Northwest Forest

Plan, p. 26). Values at risk in and near the project area include: the Bend Municipal Watershed,

Skyliner’s Forest, communication towers, Inventoried Roadless Areas, and high use recreation areas

such as Tumalo Falls and privately owned timberlands

2. There is a need to salvage dead wood to contribute to local and regional economies by providing

timber and other wood fiber products in an economically efficient manner.

There is a need to salvage dead lodgepole killed in recent beetle outbreaks. Nearly 90% of this area is

composed of dead standing lodgepole pine based on annual Aerial Detection Surveys. Most of these

trees were killed in a beetle outbreak that started in 2002 and peaked in 2008. These trees are likely to

remain standing for about 8 years after death and as a result, can be expected to begin falling in large

numbers in coming years (Bull Creek Sub-Watershed Analysis, 2008). Standing trees are easier and

more economical to salvage. In many cases fuel reduction efforts can be paid for by the timber value.

Down wood loses value quickly and will increase fire intensity and duration and reduce the effectiveness

of control methods. Stand regeneration to a new forest structure can also reduce the potential for

beetle attack, and is most appropriate in lodgepole pin stands nearing the end of their natural lifecycles,

whether from pathogens of high density stress (Eglitis, 1996).

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Alternative Description See Table 3

Table 3. Comparison of Action Alternatives

Alternative 2 Alternative 3

Mixed Conifer Lodgepole Mixed Conifer Lodgepole

Treatment

Thin from below to basal area (average 80 BA)

salvage dead lodgepole

No DBH limit on white fir

Cut trees < 7” to a designated spacing (20-30 ft. for ladder fuels reduction

Masticate fine fuels in areas not covered by Bear wallow Mastication along roadways CE

Pile project-generated slash and burn

Seed tree cut with 20-40 TPA of the best lodgepole left

Retain all other species

Salvage dead lodgepole standing and down firm wood

Girdle PICO seed trees within 10 years after initial treatment

Cut trees < 7” to a designated spacing (20-30 ft. based on PCT description/ whip falling also covers) for ladder fuels reduction

Pile project-generated slash and burn

Thin from below to basal area (average 80 BA)

salvage dead lodgepole

Diameter limit of 22” DBH in white fir

Cut trees < 7” to a designated spacing (20-30 ft. for ladder fuels reduction

Masticate fine fuels in areas not covered by Bear wallow Mastication CE along roadways

Pile project-generated slash and burn

Seed tree cut with 20-40 TPA of the best lodgepole left

Retain all other species

Salvage dead lodgepole standing and down firm wood

Girdle PICO seed trees within 10 years after initial treatment

Cut trees < 7” to a designated spacing (20-30 ft. based on PCT description/ whip falling also covers) for ladder fuels reduction

Pile project-generated slash and burn

Overstory Treatment

Regeneration Harvest = 2,021 acres Salvage Harvest = 1,685 acres Thinning = 1,543 acres

Regeneration Harvest = 1,937 acres Salvage Harvest = 1,260 acres Thinning = 1,118 acres

Understory Treatment

Whip Falling = 2,021 acres Ladder Fuel Reduction = 1,998 acres Pre-commercial Thinning = 33 acres Masticate = 139 acres

Whip Falling = 1,938 acres Ladder Fuel Reduction = 1,998 acres Pre-commercial Thinning = 33 acres Masticate =139 acres

Not treated

1,858 =left untreated (31% of project area) LSOG, NRF, Slopes >30%

1,919 acres = left untreated (32% of project area) LSOG ,NRF, Slopes >30% No treatment in one 84 acre block north of Bear Wallow Butte (units 97, 95, 93, 94) Fuel Reduction treatment on four additional “mini blocks” (units 104, 53, 27); (units 114, 115, 116); (units 34, 123, 124, 125); and (units 30, 108).

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Alternatives include no action, proposed action alternative actions.

Alternative Description - Alternative One - No Action

No activities would take place under this alternative. Natural processes would continue with no

management.

Alternative Description - Alternative Two – Proposed Action

Alternative 2, the proposed action, would respond to the purpose and need by harvesting 4,208 of 6,066

acres of stands in the project area. Thirty-one percent of the planning area or 1,858 acres would remain

untreated. Fuel treatment would occur on 4,158 acres. This alternative is consistent with management

direction set forth in the Deschutes National Forest Plan.

Objectives: Reduce high surface fire intensity and regenerate stands no longer capable of utilizing site

growth potential.

Regenerate lodgepole pine stands to remove dead and diseased lodgepole pine, follow up with whip

falling (2,021 acres)

Options for treating these stands are limited because of the near absence of live trees. Management of

the existing stands is no longer feasible. After the initiation of an outbreak, management options

become increasingly limited and delays in treatment greatly reduce opportunities for success (Jenkins

2008). With these limitations, the following treatment was developed with the intent to meet the prior

stated management objections.

Seed Tree and Salvage Treatments

An estimated 6-8 mmbf of lodgepole pine firmwood would be salvage harvested from 2,000 of the 6,066

acres of the Ursus Project area. All timber proposed for salvage is from lands classified as suitable for

timber production. Salvage is directed at reducing fuel loadings to 5 to 20 tons/acre and reducing the

risk to planted trees from subsequent fires. Retention of live seed trees is planned in these areas to

regenerate the stands. These seed trees will provide a viable seed source for the next cohort of trees.

Most of the overstory trees are dead due to mountain pine beetle attacks over the last decade. The

remaining live trees are generally less than nine inches in diameter with poor crowns and are heavily

infected with dwarf mistletoe and western gall rust. The least infected green trees would be left to help

seed in the next crop of trees and to meet wildlife and soil productivity objectives. In places with

species other than lodgepole pine, those species will be favored and retained for vegetative diversity.

These species commonly include true fir, mountain hemlock, ponderosa pine, whitebark pine and

western white pine. This will contribute to maintenance of forest structure as well as species diversity..

Regeneration cuts (seed tree cuts) in the lodgepole pine stands that are in proximity to the whitebark

and western white pine will lengthen the time until the lodgepole reach the critical threshold (100 TPA

>9”DBH) of serious risk for bark beetle attacks. Removing lodgepole pine which are susceptible to

mountain pine beetle (>9” DBH) will reduce the risk of beetle attack to other nearby pine (Egilitis, 2015).

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Small, non-merchantable trees would then be removed with a whip falling treatment. Whip falling is

used in a regeneration treatment to remove small trees which are not desired due to disease or poor

condition including small crowns, bole damage, mistletoe infection or poor growth. This treatment

would reduce stand density and fuel continuity to create an environment where firefighters could safely

engage to suppress wildfires. It would also facilitate regenerating a new age class of trees to allow them

to develop free of disease, able to utilize site growth potential and develop into large

structure. Additional treatments (whip felling) will reduce competition from other species and provide

additional site resources that will increase the vigor of the 5 needle pines, allowing them to be more

resilient to bark beetles and disease (primarily whitepine blister rust) (Egilitis,personal communication,

2015).

Pocket gophers area currently present within the project area in low numbers, but their population is

expected to increase dramatically within the next three years because of improvement to their habitat

conditions resulting from opening of the stands from beetle kill and disturbance associated with harvest

activities (Volland, 1985).

Live lodgepole pine, in excess of what is needed for a seed source, will be cut. Snags will be retained at

an average of six per acre. Fifteen percent of each regeneration unit will be retained in aggregates of

islands consisting of high density and high quality snags associated geographically with each

regeneration unit.

The Deschutes LRMP TM-58 directs that dwarf mistletoe infected seed trees must be removed or girdled

before regeneration reaches a height of 3 feet. According to Hawksworth (1989), the greatest dwarf

mistletoe threat to regeneration exists where harvest of the infested stand was incomplete and infected

residual trees were left standing on the site. Seed trees in Ursus will be girdled after natural

regeneration is present in enough quantity and quality to stock the units (100 trees per acre meeting the

seedlings requirements on greater than 80 percent of the units).The opportunity to control dwarf

mistletoe is greatest at the time of final harvest and secondly in recently regenerated stands 5 to 15

years old. Sanitation of lodgepole pine dwarf mistletoe is the primary emphasis of management in

stands of this age. The greatest dwarf mistletoe threat to regeneration exists where harvest of the

previously infested stand was incomplete and infected residual trees were left standing on the site.

Infected residuals over 6 feet (2 meters) high will be whip felled after the commercial harvest. Shorter

infected trees pose little threat because infections will be located in the lower half of the crown and

dwarf mistletoe dispersal will be minimized. Also bole infections on these trees usually will kill very small

trees.

If infected residuals have been present for more than about 10 years, the regeneration is probably also

infected and will require subsequent sanitation to prevent serious losses in the future (Hawksworth ,

1989, p.26)

Planting

Natural regeneration is planned in the areas of seed tree (regeneration) cuts. However, in the event that

natural regeneration does not occur within the prescribed time frame, or other unforeseen events

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prevent successful stocking, approximately 30% of the harvested areas are planned for artificial

reforestation.

420-460 acres of the project area would be planted with whitebark pine, western white pine, and

ponderosa pine or lodgepole pine seedlings, at a spacing of 15’ (approximately 200 trees per acre). The

ground is rocky with some unplantable spots, therefore exact spacing may vary. To protect from deer

brose planted seedlings would be protected by installing rigid vexar tubes or sprayed with big game

repellent.

Vegetation in the form of grasses, Greenleaf manzanita, lupine, and long stolon sedge are expected to

be serious competitors to planted seedlings and be a threat to survival and growth. Scalping and cutting

vegetation away from seedlings will be utilized in the project area as a means of reducing competing and

unwanted vegetation. Vegetation management activities proposed are consistent with the NFMA and

Deschutes LRMP.

Pocket gopher populations are expected to be a serious issue for reforestation. Gopher baiting is not

part of this analysis.

Salvage and thin trees in mixed conifer stands, followed by ladder fuel reduction treatment (1,543 acres)

Mixed conifer stands in the Ursus planning area vary widely from stands of lodgepole pine, true fir and

mountain hemlock to stands that stands have a component of ponderosa pine. In mixed conifer stands,

standing and down dead lodgepole pine would be salvaged, to reduce fuel loadings and increase fire

fighter safety, retaining what is needed to meet wildlife and soil productivity objectives. Thinning would

reduce the potential for crown fire propagation by decreasing crown bulk density and will be done

generally from below, removing the trees from the middle and lower canopy levels Exceptions would

include clearing of white fir of any size, 30’ around ponderosa pine. Ponderosa pine was the dominate

species in the mixed conifer plant associations, until logging occurred in the late 1960’s and the

disturbance allowed true fir and lodgepole to become dominate. Ponderosa pine is the longest lived and

most fire resistant species in these stands. The additional removal of live trees would occur to reduce

stress and competition and extend the life of these legacy trees.

Salvage would be used where the dead lodgepole pine has been killed by mountain pine beetle and fuel

loadings are beyond desirable levels. Salvage treatments would be followed by a ladder fuel reduction

treatment. Ladder fuel reduction treatments reduce the likelihood that a surface fire will transition to a

crown fire by interrupting the vertical continuity of fuels through the removal of trees and shrubs in the

middle and lower canopy levels. Trees targeted for removal include immature true fir, and lodgepole

susceptible to mountain pine beetle attacks. Roughly 500 acres of mixed conifer stands would receive

only ladder fuel reduction treatment and no overstory treatment.

Objectives: Provide a safe access point for firefighters to effectively protect Bear Wallow Communication

Tower.

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Treat stands along the boundaries closest to resources at risk including Bend Municipal Watershed, the

proposed Skyline forest, and along the road up to Bear Wallow Butte (roughly 250 acres).

Treatments along these boundaries on the south and west sides of the project area as well as along the

access route to Bear Wallow Butte, would improve access for firefighters to more effectively suppress

fires near these important resources. Bear Wallow Butte hosts the communication equipment that

supports emergency medical services as well as communication networks for St. Charles in Bend.

Reducing debris

along the road

would improve

access and

create defensible

space around

the

communications

site.

Along the

boundary with

the Bend Watershed Inventoried Roadless Area, there are varying conditions ranging from multi-storied

mixed conifer stands to dense brushy plantations created after the Bridge Creek wildfire of 1979.

Treatments here would be a mix of salvage, thinning and ladder fuel reduction. Salvage would include

removal of dead trees as well as thinning to reduce crown bulk density and the potential for initiation of

crown fires. Ladder fuel reduction would include removal of trees in the middle and lower canopy level.

Lodgepole and ponderosa pine plantations planted following the Bridge Creek Burn would be thinned to

a spacing of 11-20 feet to reduce high tree density, ladder and surface fuels. Fuels exceeding desired

levels, including slash created during thinning treatments, would be grapple piled and burned,

masticated or utilized for biomass.

Prune 5 needle pines to increase resilience to white pine blister rust

Several studies from the University of Idaho have found pruning of young western white pine trees (6-10

feet high) can improve the trees chance of not becoming infected with white pine blister rust. The Ursus

project area has two five needle pine species, western white pine and whitebark pine. Western white

pine is predominately on top of the buttes, but whitebark pine has been found all along the 4601370

road and in a few places off the 4602100 road. The whitebark pines are approximately the right height

to benefit from pruning.

Restoring white pine is an important goal and pruning in trees 10-25 years old is one tool that can help.

Spores of the fungus infect trees through the needles. The fungus then grows into the main branch,

Figure 7 Bear Wallow Communication Tower

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typically killing the branch. From there the fungus grows down the branch, infecting the base of the

bole. Pruning can mitigate this damage by removing the lower limbs of the trees, therefore removing

the most likely source of infection. Formal surveys in the Ursus area have shown there are trees of

sufficient quantity and quality to benefit from this treatment (See Table 4). Pruning treatments would

target young trees 6-10 feet high, early in their life span. Up to 50 % of the tree’s total height would be

pruned. The sooner the lower branches are pruned, the better chance trees have of gaining enough

vertical growth to escape blister rust. If excess white pine trees are found in the stand, treatments may

be delayed to let the white pine blister rust, “select out” and kill the tree. Pruning for blister rust

increases airflow through the stand and changes the microclimate (humidity) to disrupt or truncate

transmission of ribes spores.

Table 4. Stands of Five Needle Pine Densities

Ursus Five Needle Pine Survey Results

Stand Trees Per Acre Prune

65 33 YES

59 27 NO

157 8 NO

158 8 NO

161 128 YES

163 12 NO

164 31 YES

119 12 NO

64 5 NO

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Figure 8. Presence of whitepine blister rust in Pacific Northwest

Reduce fuel loadings to meet Forest Plan standards and Guidelines using appropriate fuels treatments.

Treatment options may include machine piling and burning, mowing of shrubs, hand piling,

underburning and or yarding material to landings and burning or utilizing it there. Fuel loading in much

of this area exceeds Forest Plan Standards and Guidelines. Treatment would include removal of dead

downed material to bring fuel loadings to levels that comply with the Forest Plan while still maintaining

required snags and downed woody debris.

Alternative Description - Alternative Three Alternative Three is similar to alternative two, in that timber activities proposed regeneration

treatments in lodgepole pine will take place, salvaging and thinning in the mixed conifer, and treatments

of strategic areas such as Bear Wallow Communication Tower will take place. Differences arose in

response to key issues, that address structural diversity, retaining old and large trees, and the amount of

acres treated. Alternative 3 would respond to the purpose and need by harvesting 4,148 of 6,066 acres

of stands in the project area. Thirty-two percent of the planning area or 1,919 acres would remain

untreated. Fuel treatment would occur on 4,075 acres. This alternative is consistent with management

direction set forth in the Deschutes National Forest Plan.

Regenerate lodgepole pine stands to remove dead and diseased lodgepole pine, follow up with whip

falling (1,937 acres)

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Alternative 3 would respond to the purpose and need by conducting seed tree cuts on 1,937 acres.

Compared with alternernative 2, alternative 3 would leave no treatment in an 84 acre block north of

Bear Wallow Butte (Units 97, 95, 93, 93). It would also exclude timber harvest and only have fuel

reduction treatments on four additional “mini blocks” (units 104, 53, 27); (units 114, 115,116); (units 34,

123, 124, 125); and (units 30; 108). Alternative 3 would leave 29 snags per acre in high density clumps

where they exist. See wildlife section for more information. Fifteen percent of each regeneration unit

will be retained for green tree retention and in aggregates of high density and high quality snags

associated geographically with each regeneration unit.

The Deschutes LRMP TM-58 directs that dwarf mistletoe infected seed trees must be removed or girdled

before regeneration reaches a height of 3 feet. According to Hawksworth, the greatest dwarf mistletoe

threat to regeneration exists where harvest of the infested stand was incomplete and infected residual

trees were left standing on the site. Seed trees in Ursus will be girdled after natural regeneration is

present in enough quantity and quality to stock the units (100 trees per acre meeting the seedlings

requirements on greater than 80 percent of the units).

Salvage and thin trees in mixed conifer stands, follow by ladder fuel reduction treatment (1,118 acres)

Several commenters expressed concerns over removal of trees that are large, old or both old and large.

Using LIDAR tree point data and informal exams, an assessment was made to determine at what size

(diameter at breast height) trees are a rarity on the landscape. Considerations of using Van Pelt’s guide

(2008) to old grand fir were made, but determined to be difficult to implement. Many of the larger

diameter white fir are 70-90 years old, and they released after the overstory removal of the large

ponderosa pine in the 1960s. A fair amount of the white/grand fir sized 18-21” DBH are quite common

on the landscape, and are only 50-80 years old. Using LIDAR and informal exams, a 22” diameter at

breast height was determined to be the size at which large white fir are uncommon on the landscape.

This size was selected as an upper diameter limit for cutting of white fir.

In addition to the diameter limit, additional 425 acres of treatment areas were dropped from timber

activities.

Regulatory Framework

National Forest Management Act (NFMA) The following timber management requirements from the National Forest Management Act are set forth

in Forest Service Manual 1900, Chapter 1920, Section 1921.12a (2006).

Under 16 U.S.C. 1604(6) (3) (E), a Responsible Official may authorize site-specific projects and activities to

harvest timber only where:

1. Soil, slope, or other watershed conditions will not be irreversibly damaged. 2. There is assurance that the lands can be adequately restocked within five years after final

regeneration harvest (FSM 1921.12g).

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3. Streams, streambanks, shorelines, lakes, wetlands, and other bodies of water are protected from detrimental changes in water temperatures, blockages of water courses, and deposits of sediment, where harvests are likely to seriously and adversely affect water conditions or fish habitat.

4. The harvesting system to be used is not selected primarily because it will give the greatest dollar return or the greatest unit output of timber.

A Responsible Official may authorize project and activities using cutting methods, such as clearcutting, seed tree cutting, shelterwood cutting, and other cuts designed to regenerate an even-aged stand of timber, only where: 1) Insure that clearcutting, seed tree cutting, shelterwood cutting, and other cuts designed to

regenerate an even aged stand of timber will be used as a cutting method on National Forest System lands only where clearcutting, it is the optimum method; or where seed tree, shelterwood, and other cuts are determined to be appropriate to meeting the objectives and requirements of the relevant plan (16 USC 1604(g) (3) (F) (i)).

2) The interdisciplinary review has been completed and the potential environmental, biological, esthetic, engineering, and economic impacts have been assessed on each advertised sale area and the cutting methods are consistent with the multiple use of the general area (16 USC 1604(g)(3)(F)(ii)).

3) Cut blocks, patches, or strips are shaped and blended to the extent practicable with the natural terrain (16 USC 1604(g) (3) (F) (iii)).

4) Cuts are carried out according to the maximum size limit requirements for areas to be cut during one harvest operation (FSM 1921.12e).

5) Timber cuts are carried out in manner consistent with the protection of soil, watershed, fish, wildlife, recreation, esthetic resources, cultural and historic resources, and the regeneration of timber resources.

6) Stands of trees are harvested according to requirements for culmination of mean annual increment of growth (16 U.S.C. 1604(m); FSM1921.12f; FSH 1909.12, Ch. 60).

Policy on Culmination of Mean Annual Increment Forest Service Manual 1900, Chapter 1920, Section 1921.12f (2006) sets forth the policy for the Culmination of Mean Annual Increment (CMAI) requirements. The requirements apply only to even-aged management at the time of regeneration harvest on lands suited for timber production. Prior to regeneration harvest, stands of trees must have generally reached CMAI of growth (FSH 1909.12, Ch. 60; 16 U.S.C. 1604(m) (l)). “Generally reached culmination” is defined as the age at which the stand achieves at least 95 percent of the cubic foot volume at culmination. The culmination of mean annual increment growth requirement does not apply to: 1. Cutting for experimental or research purposes. 2. Non-regeneration harvests, such as thinning or other stand improvement measures. 3. Management of uneven-aged stands or to stands under uneven-aged silvicultural systems. 4. Salvage or sanitation harvesting of timber stands. 5. Harvest to meet multiple-use objectives other than timber production. Exceptions to the culmination of mean annual increment requirements may occur as a result of project-

level analysis if decision-making includes appropriate public disclosure and opportunity to comment.

Northwest Forest Plan The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) is a series of federal policies and guidelines governing land use on federal lands in the Pacific Northwestregion of the United States. It covers areas ranging from Northern

Page 25 of 69

California to western Washington. There are specific standards and guides for different allocations in the NWFP. See below for a detailed description of which apply to this project. This project is consistent with the Northwest Forest Plan.

Basis for Standards and Guidelines

Matrix

Provide specified amounts of coarse woody debris in matrix management.

a) Manage to provide a renewable supply of large down logs well distributed across the matrix landscape in a manner that meets the needs of species and provides for ecological functions. Develop modes for groups of plant associations and stand types that can be used as a baseline for developing prescriptions.

b) The following guidelines apply in areas of regeneration harvest. In eastern Oregon a minimum of 120 linear feet of logs per acre greater than or equal to 16 inches in diameter and 16 feet long should be retained. Decay class 1 and 2 logs can be counted towards these totals. Down logs should reflect the species mix of the original stand. In all cases, standards and guidelines from current plans apply if they provide greater amounts. In areas of partial harvest, the same basic guidelines should be applied, but they should be modified to reflect the timing of stand development cycles where partial harvesting is practiced.

c) Coarse woody debris already on the ground should be retained and protected to the greatest

extent possible from disturbance during treatment (e.g., slash burning and yarding) which might otherwise destroy the integrity of the substrate.

d) Down logs should be left within forest patches that are retained under green-tree retention

guidelines in order to provide the microclimate that is appropriate for various organisms that use this substrate.

e) As with all standards and guidelines, these guidelines are meant to provide initial guidance, but

further refinement will be required for specific geographic areas. This can be accomplished through planning based on watershed analysis, and the adaptive management process. (Pages C-40 and C-41)

Emphasize green-tree and snag retention in matrix management.

Retain at least 15 percent of the area associated with each cutting unit (stand). Only matrix lands count toward the 15 percent. This limitation does not apply to intermediate harvests (thinning) in even-age young stands because leaving untreated portions of young stands would retard stand development and be detrimental to the objective of creating late-successional patches. As a general guide, seventy percent of the total area to be retained should be aggregates of moderate to larger size (0.2 to 1 hectare or more) with the remainder as dispersed structures (individual trees, and possible including smaller clumps less than 0.2 ha). Larger aggregates may be particularly important where adjacent areas have little late-successional habitat. To the extent possible, patches and dispersed retention should include the largest, oldest live trees, decadent or leaning trees, and hard snags occurring in the unit. Patches should be retained indefinitely.

Page 26 of 69

As a minimum, snags are to be retained within the harvest unit at levels sufficient to support species of cavity –nesting birds at 40 percent of potential population levels based on published guidelines and models. The objective is to meet the 40 percent minimum standard throughout the matrix, with per-acre requirements met on average areas no larger than 40 acres. To the extent possible, snag management within harvest units should occur within the areas of green-tree retention. The needs of bats should also be considered in these standard and guidelines as those needs become better known. Snag recruitment trees left to meet an identified, near-term (less than 3 decades) snag deficit do not count toward green-tree retention requirements. (Pages C-41 and C-42)

Provide for retention of old-growth fragments in watersheds where little remains.

Landscape areas where little late-successional forest persists should be managed to retain late-successional patches. This standard and guideline will be applied in fifth field watersheds (20 to 200 square miles) in which federal forest lands area currently comprised of 15 percent or less late-successional forest. This assessment should include all allocations in the watershed. Within such an area, all remaining late-successional stands should be protected. Protection of these stands could be modified in the future, when other portions of the watershed have recovered to the point where they could replace the ecological roles of these stands. (Pages C-44 and C-45)

Deschutes Land and Management Resource Plan Management is directed by the Deschutes Land and Resource Management Plan (LRMP) (USDA Forest Service 1990a) as amended by the Standards and Guidelines for the Management of Habitat for Late Successional and Old-Growth Related Species within the Range of the Northern Spotted Owl (Northwest Forest Plan) (USDA FS and USDI BLM 1994a). This section describes direction considered applicable to proposed timber management activities. This project is consistent with the Deschutes LRMP.

Forest Wide Standards and Guidelines

Forest Health

Goal: To maintain and enhance the vigor of the forest ecosystem through the control of forest pests.

FH-3: Management strategies should emphasize prevention of forest pests rather than suppression

activities.

Timber Management

Goal: To manage the timber resources of the Forest in a way that is consistent with other resource

objectives, environmental constraints, and economic efficiency.

Forest Health

TM-10: The silvicultural prescription will consider integrated pest management. Pests include insects, diseases, animals, and vegetation. Where conditions are such that unacceptable damage or reductions in tree growth can be predicted, protection measures may be warranted prior to the actual damage occurring. TM-49: Seed trees can be dwarf mistletoe infected, but in that case must be removed or girdled before regeneration reaches a height of 3 feet. If dwarf mistletoe infected trees are retained for wildlife needs they should be killed in place to avoid infecting the regeneration.

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Natural Regeneration

TM-49: The maximum specified time period (regeneration time lag) natural regeneration to meet minimum stocking requirements in shelterwood seed tree harvest areas, where a later overstory removal is planned, is 10 years for the lodgepole pine forest type. All clearcut and final overstory removal harvest areas shall be regenerated, at least to minimum stocking requirements, within 5 years of final harvest. TM-50: Natural regeneration shall be prescribed where it will meet the minimum stocking levels during the specified time period with a first time success of 80 percent or greater.

Horizontal Diversity (harvest unit size)

TM-58: Forest openings created by even-aged silviculture should not exceed 40 acres in ponderosa pine, mixed conifer, and mountain hemlock. Created openings can exceed 40 acres in lodgepole pine to treat the catastrophic situation created by the mountain pine beetle epidemic. Units will be shaped to blend with the natural terrain. TM-61: Timber management activities that create essentially uniform structural conditions should generally not exceed 100 contiguous acres on >95% of each implementation unit. Harvest units larger than 100 acres, however, may be prescribed on <5% of each implementation unit.

Management Area Standards and Guidelines

Winter Recreation (MA13)

Goal: To provide quality winter recreation opportunities within a forest environment that can be

modified for visitor use and satisfaction.

General Theme and Objectives: Provide opportunities for winter recreation. Development activities are

permitted but only as necessary.

M13-4 There is no programmed harvest in this Management Area.

M13-5 Timber management will be designed to provide suitable conditions for winter recreation;

however timber will not be scheduled as part of the chargeable program. Rotation ages and silvicultural

prescription can vary to meet recreation objectives. Clearcuts are acceptable to provide openings for

snow play areas or to open up vistas for visual purposes. Firewood cutting is permissible. Timber

harvesting activities will normally be conducted outside of the winter recreation season. Timber

harvesting is also permitted to address catastrophic situations such as fire or insect and disease damage

but the primary objective even in these situations will be to improve winter recreation activities.

Old Growth (MA15)

Goal: To provide naturally evolved old growth forest ecosystems.

General Theme and Objectives: An old growth forest will be managed to provide:

1) large trees, 2) abundant standing and downed dead trees, and 3) vertical structure, except in lodgepole

pine types where a single canopy level is common.

M15-4: Vegetative manipulation including removal may occur to perpetuate or enhance old growth

characteristics.

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M15-6: Firewood cutting and gathering is not permitted.

Front Country Seen and Unseen (MA18)

M18-5 In areas visible from significant viewer locations, management emphasis will focus on

maintaining a uniform tree canopy. Openings are acceptable but should not dominate the landscape

when uniform tree canopies cannot be maintained because of biological or topographic conditions.

M18-2 Openings resulting from vegetative management activities in areas viewed from significant

viewer locations will be designed to follow natural topographic features to avoid geometric shapes and

straight lines and to be sized to simulate naturally occurring openings For management activities which

may result in visible openings in the forest canopy, a landscape architect will be consulted on the

location, size and configuration of treatment units..

M18-3 Portions of the area which cannot be seen from the significant viewer locations will be managed

similarly to land in General Forest.

M18-4 Two years after management activities are concluded they will not be obvious when viewed from

significant viewer locations.

M18-5 Due to the mountain pine beetle epidemic created openings can exceed 40 acres in the

lodgepole pine working group. However, mitigation measures such as feathering, scalloping and other

edge treatments would be employed.

M18-17 Fuelwood gathering is permitted when not in conflict with visual or wildlife objectives.

Consistency

Northwest Forest Plan

Late Structure Old Growth-Provide for retention of old-growth fragments in watersheds where

little remains.

Landscape areas where little late-successional forest persists should be managed to retain late-

successional patches. This standard and guideline will be applied in fifth field watersheds (20 to 200

square miles) in which federal forest lands area currently comprised of 15 percent or less late-

successional forest.

The United States Geological Survey created a hierarchical system of hydrologic units originally called

regions, sub-regions, accounting units, and cataloging units. Each unit was assigned a unique Hydrologic

Unit Code (HUC). As first implemented the system had regions, subregions, accounting units, and

cataloging units.[2][3] Over time the system was changed and expanded.[4] As of 2010 there are six levels in

the hierarchy, represented by hydrologic unit codes from 2 to 12 digits long, called regions, subregions,

basins, subbasins, watersheds, and subwatersheds. The NWFP calls for the fifth field watershed (20 to 200

square miles) to be used. Since the reclassification, the most similar unit of measure is the 10th field

watershed.The spatial scale of analysis is the three 10th field watersheds that the project area falls within.

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These include Deep Canyon (97,508 acres), McKenzie-Canyon (218, 372 acres) and Tumalo Creek (38,004

acres). All three watersheds total 353,884 acres. This follows the Northwest Forest Plan standard and

guideline that directs provisions for retaining old-growth fragments where little remains be applied in fifth

field watersheds (20 to 200 square miles).

The temporal scale of analysis for Late Structure Old Growth (LSOG) is bounded to the time between 2012

(date of LIDAR data used to classify existing size/structure) and 2020 (date by which Ursus treatments

with potential to change existing size and structure classifications would likely be implemented). During

this time period past, present and reasonably foreseeable projects in combination with the Ursus project

will not affect the proportion of size structure classes present in the watershed.

Measures

Size and structure is measured in terms of the percent of the watershed in the forest size and structure

classes described by Moeur et al. (2005) with a few modifications. Vegetation classes are assigned one of

two categories: lodgepole pine PAGs (lodgepole pine wet and dry) and “other conifer” PAGs (mixed

conifer wet and dry, ponderosa pine dry, and mountain hemlock dry). Plant association groups within

these two groupings have the same minimum diameters used to define older forests using potential

vegetation definitions (Moeur et al. 2005). Potential natural vegetation groups, not plant association

groups, are used for estimating the percent of the watershed in older forest. The potential natural

vegetation definitions are considered most appropriate for these three watersheds given: 1) the

watershed is located east of the Cascade crest and 2) the presence of lodgepole pine plant association

groups which have limited potential for trees to grow 20 inches dbh. For the lodgepole pine group, the

“small” size class (10–19.9 inches dbh) defined by Moeur et al. most closely corresponds to the minimum

size for lodgepole pine older forest (12 inches dbh). For the other conifer group, the “medium and large”

size class (20–29.9 inches dbh) defined by Moeur et al. most closely corresponds to the minimum size for

older forest (21 inches dbh).

Methods

To classify existing vegetation, size/structure and canopy cover values classified from remotely sensed

LIDAR (2012) was used in combination with plant association groups mapped for the Deschutes National

Forest. Vegetation was classified into the size and structure classes described by the Region Six Interim

Old Growth definitions for Potential Natural Vegetation. The potential natural vegetation groups for the

Ursus Project area include lodgepole pine, ponderosa pine and mixed conifer. For lodgepole pine the old

growth definition is 60 TPA greater than 12” DBH and a minimum stand size of 10 acres. For ponderosa

pine the old growth definition is 13 TPA >21” DBH and a minimum stand size of 10 acres. For

white/grand fir the old growth definition is 10 TPA greater than 21” DBH and a minimum stand size of 60

acres. For this analysis a minimum stand size of greater than 5 acres was used. This was to meet the

Survey and Manage definitions for Botany.

Approximately 40 percent of the Tumalo watershed is in size and structure classes that approximate

older forest conditions (late-successional and old-growth conditions) as defined by potential vegetation

Region Six interim definitions (Hopkins). The two other watersheds, Deep Canyon and McKenzie did not

have over 15 percent in approximate older forest conditions. The Deep Canyon had 6 percent classified

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as late structure old growth, and the McKenzie had less than one percent. This includes lodgepole pine

PAGs in the small and medium/larger size classes and other conifer PAGs in the medium/larger size

class.

This means that all areas mapped as late structure old growth are excluded from treatment.

Alternative One, Two and Three Late Structure Old Growth

The effects would be the same for all action alternatives, since stands classified as late structure old

growth are being excluded from treatment.

Direct and Indirect Effects

There would be no change from the existing condition. While scattered individual or localized groups of

trees likely would continue to be killed by beetles, reducing the number of larger diameter trees on the

landscape, levels of mortality would not be sufficient to change the existing proportion of size structure

classes present on the landscape. Understory vegetation would continue to establish where there are

gaps in tree canopy cover. Lodgepole pine would be the predominant tree species regenerating these

gaps, followed by white fir in the mixed conifer plant associations. With this ongoing process of

understory re-initiation, small multi-story stand structures would continue to be abundant on the

landscape. Within areas being analyzed for treatment, tree density currently is, or is trending towards

levels, high enough to reduce tree vigor. Potential for retaining existing large tree structure and

developing future large tree structure would be reduced.

Within mixed conifer and ponderosa pine stands being analyzed for treatment, the dense, multi-storied

forest structures of small trees would continue to be a departure from the relatively open, large-tree

dominated forest which historically existed. In mixed conifer stands, there would continue to be a shift

away from the more fire resistant species such as ponderosa pine and Douglas fir. Stocking of true fir and

lodgepole pine would continue to be high enough in some areas to cause reductions in the vigor and

growth of the relatively few ponderosa pine and Douglas fir that are present.

Removal or Girdling of Seed Trees

The Deschutes LRMP TM-58 directs that dwarf mistletoe infected seed trees must be removed or girdled

before regeneration reaches a height of 3 feet. According to Hawksworth, the greatest dwarf mistletoe

threat to regeneration exists where harvest of the infested stand was incomplete and infected residual

trees were left standing on the site.

Appropriateness of seed tree and shelterwood harvest methods

Regeneration harvest methods in Alternative 2 and 3 are appropriate for meeting the objectives and

requirements of the management areas. Growth has culminated, as defined by Forest Service Manual

direction, in stands of trees proposed for regeneration harvest in Alternative 2 and 3. The mountain pine

beetle epidemic left catastrophic amounts of mortality.

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Shape of seed tree and shelterwood harvest methods

Alternative 2 and 3 seed tree harvest units would be shaped and blended to the extent practicable with the natural terrain (Deschutes LRMP S&G TM-58). Treatments would occur on relatively flat to rolling ground and are generally irregularly shaped.

Maximum size of seed tree and shelterwood harvest methods

Regeneration harvest in Alternative 2 and 3 meets the maximum size limit requirements. Alternative 2 and 3 uses seed tree harvest methods in the lodgepole pine vegetation type to regenerate even-aged stands. Harvest unit size would be consistent with the maximum size limit requirements for created openings set forth by Deschutes LRMP Standard and Guideline TM-58, which allows for created openings to exceed 40 acres in lodgepole pine to treat catastrophic situations created by mountain pine beetle epidemics. Proposed seed tree harvest units range in size from 4 to 91 acres (net), with the median size being 18 acres. Three seed tree harvest areas (Units 71, 84, and 181) would exceed 40 acres. Created openings, as defined by the Deschutes LRMP, would be created by the seed tree harvest method. For additional discussion on created openings, refer to the effects analysis section addressing horizontal diversity.

Adequately Restocking Lands following Final Regeneration Harvest

Both Alternative 2 and 3 propose the use of final regeneration harvest methods, which include seed tree

and final removal. There is assurance that lands harvested using these methods can be adequately

restocked within five years of harvest.

The majority of seed tree harvest is proposed within plant associations identified as having a good

probability (at least 80 percent) for natural regeneration to establish within 5 years of harvest. These

plant associations include lodgepole/sedge-lupine (CLG4-11) and lodgepole/sedge-lupine-penstemon

(CLG4-12). Seed tree harvest is an appropriate prescription for naturally regenerating stands in these

plant associations.

The remainder of seed tree harvest is proposed within plant associations identified as having a fair

probability (34 to 80 percent) of natural regeneration successfully restocking the lands. These

associations include lodgepole/grouse huckleberry (CLS4-12). In this association, shelterwood harvest is

a suggested method to achieve the regeneration goal. Potential for regeneration based on

interpretations from the soil land types ranges from either low to moderate or moderate to high. This

occurs on one unit (171) that is 14 acres in size. The prescription is to salvage only, since it’s designated

as LRMP Old Growth, so regeneration is not an issue.

Central Oregon forest systems tend to be moisture-limited, with coarse-textured pumice and ash soils.

Moisture dries out quickly, and diurnal temperature fluxes may be extreme. Seedling mortality may be

quite high where organics are lacking, and established trees may suffer from drought stress when

organics are removed. Surface organics also reduce soil moisture loss during warm, dry periods and

protect against wind-accelerated evaporative losses. Organic matter also buffers diurnal and seasonal

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heat fluxes. Instrumentation installed in bare mineral soil along Forest Road 45, approximately 10 miles

from the project area recorded surface temperatures ranging from below freezing to over 100°F in a

single late-winter day. Summer extremes may be much greater. (Ursus Soils Report, 2014). Pines and

western larch tend to be deeply rooted, thus nutrient and nutrient turnover tend to be dispersed

vertically in soils dominated by early seral species and concentrated near the surface. Soil surface

nutrient stores and feeder roots in late seral species-dominated stands can be at more risk to wildfire

than historical; pine or western larch stands. Similarly in low fertility situations (especially on dry sites)

where soil organic horizons and coarse woody debris supplies may be low, either intense fire or

overzealous removal of fuel to prevent fire can imperil future site productivity (Graham, p. 22, 1999).

It is important to balance relative risks with nutrient and organic matter site legacies. Personal

observations with in the project area and other similar vegetated areas on the district indicate that bole

wood from lodgepole pine is highly unlikely to disintegrate from the site within the next 30 years. Seed

trees at 20-40 an acre will be left on site and girdled soon as an understory is established.

Observations of lodgepole pine natural regeneration within the vicinity of the seed tree harvest units,

including areas with minimal to no overstory canopy cover, indicates the probability for successful natural

regeneration. Based on observations, there is a good probability that lands proposed for harvest using

the seed tree regeneration method can be adequately restocked within 5 years of harvest (Deschutes

LRMP S&G TM-49 and TM-50) which meets the Deschutes LRMP requirement of reforestation within 10

years.

Table 6.Lodgepole Pine Plant Association Success of Natural Regeneration

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY

CLG311 no chance

CLS311 no chance

CLS412 fair-34-80

LODGEPOLE PINE WET

CLG411 good-at least 80%

CLG412 good-excellent-at least

80%

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Culmination of Mean Annual Increment

Growth has culminated, as defined by Forest Service Manual direction, in stands of trees proposed for

regeneration harvest in Alternative 2 and 3.

For unmanaged lodgepole pine stands in south-central Oregon, net total cubic foot volume mean annual

increments have been found to culminate at 70 years (total age) (Cochran and Dahms; 2000; Dahms,

1964). Volume increment was found to culminate at this age regardless of site index (Dahms 1964). Using

Dahms’ (1964) mean annual increments as a basis, unmanaged lodgepole pine stands achieve at least 95

percent of the cubic foot volume between ages 40 and 50 years (total age). Equivalent breast height ages

would be 30 to 40 years.

To regenerate even-aged stands of lodgepole pine, Alternative Two and Three propose the use of seed

tree and shelterwood harvest methods in currently unmanaged stands of lodgepole pine. Stands

proposed for these harvest methods have reached culmination of mean annual increment, defined as the

age at which the stand achieves at least 95 percent of the cubic foot volume at culmination (FSM 1900,

Chapter 1920, Section 1921.12f). Total age of dominant and codominant trees within stands proposed

for these treatments is at least 60 years with the mean estimated to be between 70 to 90 years.

References There are three assessments that cover the three 10th field watersheds in the projects. These

assessments cover trends and management recommendations for the Ursus project and surrounding

areas. The provided a framework for setting objectives and prioritized areas and vegetation to focus

treatment on. They include:

1) Tumalo Creek was completed in 2008. 2) The Bear Wallow Triangle Butte Assessment was completed in 2008. 3) The Bull Creek WA Update most recently completed in 2012.

Tumalo Watershed Analysis

The Revised Tumalo Creek Watershed Analysis (March of 2008 updated the Bend Watershed Analysis

(2007). This assessment identified trends in the front country/transition landscape, which includes the

Ursus project area. These trends identified the watershed as having stands overstocked to the point of

instability, the loss of old forest structures due to insect attacks, and stand-replacing fires. The identified

cause of these disturbances, is twofold 1) is a gain in forest density and 2) the absence of management

disturbances (Revised Tumalo Watershed Analysis, Page 143). Several suggested actions that might

mitigate these disturbances were offered in the watershed analysis, including;

1. Reduce stand densities and fuel loading where appropriate. Use Community Wildfire Protection Plan

(CWPP’s) for design of projects to reduce hazardous fuels, especially in the wildland urban interface

(WUI), and restore fire resilient stands.

2. Improve public safety through hazardous fuels reduction projects including along access routes.

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3. Salvage some of the standing and down dead in higher elevation lodgepole pine for fuel reduction to

reduce fire risk while retaining overstory continuity (Revised Tumalo Creek Watershed Analysis, Page

144).

Bull Creek Watershed Assessment

Front Country/Transition

Reduce stand densities and fuel loading where appropriate. Use CWPP for design of projects to reduce hazardous fuels adjacent to Whitefish Cascade, LLC lands and restore fire resilient stands.

Improve public safety through hazardous fuels reduction, including along access routes.

Thin and culture to develop late structure and prevent overstocking in the ponderosa pine and mixed conifer dry sites.

Salvage some of the standing and down dead in higher elevation lodgepole pine for fuel reduction to reduce fire risk while retaining overstory continuity.

Various Mechanical Treatments to Reduce Fuels

Areas of concern for WUI include the Skyliners community and proposed development on private lands

east of the assessment area. The Roadless designation would not prohibit any of the following

treatments on the majority of the assessment area. The treatments listed below could create fuel

breaks if planned appropriately. Areas of opportunity would include roadside or residential fuel

reductions on adjacent lands.

Chipping/bio-fuel: Treatment option for small diameter and low quality trees. This practice would reduce fuel loading. Local and regional co-generation energy plants would utilize the commercial product. Community acceptance of green power opportunities could encourage the use of this practice.

Commercial or private fire wood collection: Administer permits for collection of predetermined tree sizes, wood volume, and harvest location. Commercial product would be sold locally and fuel loading would be reduced in strategic locations.

Post and Pole Production: Administer permits for collection of predetermined tree sizes, wood volume, and harvest location. Collection of higher quality valued timber would generate increased revenue compared to other practices. Post and Pole would leave low quality/low value material in the stand, potentially requiring additional fuel reduction treatments.

Masticate/Mow: Mastication will mitigate ladder fuel accumulation. No commercial product will be produced but low operational cost makes this a potentially cost effective treatment. Residual fuels onsite will provide nutrient and moisture retention. Vertical fuels continuity will be disrupted thus reducing the potential for crown fire activity. The Roadless designation does not interfere with this treatment.

Environmental Effects

Key Issue-Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests - (Stand Level

Structural Diversity) The forest canopy in mixed conifer stands is one of the chief determinants of the northern spotted owl

habitat. It affects plant growth and survival, determining the nature of the vegetation and wildlife

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habitat. A plethora of different techniques have been devised to measure the canopy. This analysis

covers what effect treatments will have on canopy cover and average tree diameter at breast height in

the mixed conifer. See the wildlife report for additional analysis.

Canopy cover is defined as the proportion of the forest floor covered by the vertical projection of the

tree crowns (Jennings et al. 1999). This is an important quantitative measure for Spotted Owl Dispersal

Habitat. The criteria for Dispersal habitat was developed by the Deschutes National Forest using the

prescribed process (Aquatic and terrestrial programmatic BA) for many recent planning projects.

Dispersal habitat for the Mixed Conifer Wet Plant Association in even and uneven aged stands is defined

as trees with an average of 11” DBH and 40% canopy cover.

Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests--Measures

Structural diversity in mixed conifer stands is described by stand level characteristics and for this

analysis measured by the percent of canopy cover and average tree diameter (at breast height) provided

by each alternative. These metrics; percent canopy cover and average tree diameter; have the potential

to effect whether or not a stand is suitable as spotted owl dispersal habitat. Dispersal habitat for the

project area is mapped as pixelated data, making it difficult to determine exactly how many acres of

dispersal habitat treatments could be affected by treatments.

Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests--Scope and Scale of Analysis

Analysis for structural diversity in the mixed conifer is bounded to representative stands in the mixed

conifer that have formal stand exams.

Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests--Methods

To respond to the variation in dispersal habitat data and provide quality metrics to measure effects of

the proposed treatments; eight stands that have comparable spatial variability, species composition,

stocking levels, insect and disease damage to the stands proposed for treatment were selected. These

stands have formal stand exams conducted in the late 1990s and are within the mixed conifer PAG’s of

the project. Formal stand exams provide excellent data of tree composition, species and structure

measured systematically across entire stands.

These stands were used as the best representation of current conditions for simulating treatments using

Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). FVS is a way to model fire effects, represent spatial variability in

stocking, and incorporate growth processes. It has linkages to the corporate software including

databases, geographic information systems and the National Volume Estimator Library (FVS). Due to the

fact that the exams were conducted in the late 1990’s, tree growth was projected to 2014, to reflect

current stand conditions. Disease and damage recorded in the stand exams were increased to reflect

current infection levels as well. The annual Forest Service Insect and Disease aerial surveys were used to

adjust mortality rates in the lodgepole pine to reflect the mountain pine beetle epidemic. Mortality

rates in lodgepole pine greater than 8” DBH were adjusted to be 80% (see Appendix). Prescriptions

proposed in the action alternatives were then simulated to provide measures of average canopy cover,

and DBH for effects on dispersal habitat. Fuels metrics such as crown bulk density, height to live crown,

tons per acre and others were also assessed to assure that proposed actions met the desired condition.

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Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forest--Effects--Alternative 1 (No Action)

Direct and Indirect Effects

Alternative 1 would have no direct, indirect effects on the existing canopy cover or average diameter

size of the dispersal habitat. With Alternative 1, no timber management activities would occur. Average

canopy cover would remain at 40% or better. Average tree diameter would remain in the pole (5-8.9”)

to small saw size (9-20.9” DBH) for the next few decades. Growth rates and tree vigor would be reduced

(lower than Alternative 2 or 3) due to high competition and stocking levels

Figure 9. Alternative 1-No Action Representative mixed conifer stand. This stand depicts a representative sample of an untreated stand of mixed conifer stand in the current

size and structure class. Crown closure is greater than 40 percent, stocking is at 135 square feet of basal

area/acre, dwarf mistletoe infecting over 60 percent of the white fir, with an average dwarf mistletoe

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infection rate of 3, with a calculated 28 trees per acre dying of dwarf mistletoe in 2014. Crown bulk

density ranges from 0.16kg m3-0.21kg m3.

Structural Diversity-- Mixed Conifer Forests—Effects--Alternatives 2 and 3

Direct and Indirect Effects

Alternatives 2 and 3 have timber management activities occurring that will alter canopy cover in the

mixed conifer stands. Current crown bulk densities in the mixed conifer are estimated to range from

0.16 kg/m3-0.21 kg/m3, putting the stands at risk for maintaining an active crown fire. Proposed

treatments are targeted at bringing the crown bulk densities below the threshold for limiting active and

independent crown fires over a period of 30 years. Proposed treatments include salvaging of dead

lodgepole pine, culturing ponderosa pine, and thinning the white/grand fir to a basal area of 80 square

feet per acre. Alternative 2 will reduce the canopy cover to approximately 22% immediately following

harvest, and canopy cover will recover around 30%, 30 years following the harvest (2044). Alternative 3

will reduce the canopy cover to approximately 26% immediately following harvest, and canopy cover

will recover around 32%, 30 years following the harvest (2044).

For Alternative 2, modeling in FVS shows, average stand crown bulk density is reduced to <0.05kg m3

immediately after treatment. This level is maintained for the timeline of 30 years, maintaining a crown

bulk density of <0.06 kg/m3until 2044

For Alternative 3, modeling in FVS shows, average stand crown bulk density is reduced to <0.06kg m3

immediately after treatment. This level is maintained for the timeline of 30 years, maintaining a crown

bulk density of <0.07 kg/m3until 2044.

Average stand diameters may increase with timber harvest, as competing vegetation is removed. The

remaining trees are able to utilize improved site resources such as light, nutrients and moisture. Within

areas being analyzed for treatment, tree density after treatment, will be low enough to increase tree

vigor in the trees that have lower infections of disease (primarily dwarf mistletoe). Growth rates and

increased vigor is not expected in trees with heavy mistletoe infection. Observed growth rates and a

reduction in tree densities, growth rates could be assumed to be 2 inches of diameter growth per

decade in trees with minimal dwarf mistletoe infection.

Canopy Cover in

Percent (for modeled stands)

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

2014 2044 2014 2044 2014 2044

48% in 30 (Minimum

19%* Maximum

60%)

50%

(Minimum 30%

Maximum 60%)

22%

(Minimum 17%

Maximum 28%)

30%

(Minimum 20%

Maximum 38%)

26%

(Minimum 19%

Maximum 38%)

32%

(Minimum 20%

Maximum 39%)

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Crown Bulk

Density (kg/m3)

(For modeled stands)

0.16 to .35 (kg/m3)

0.16 to .35 (kg/m3)

<0.05 (kg/m3)

<0.06 (kg/m3)

<0.06 (kg/m3)

<0.07 (kg/m3)

Table 5. Comparison of Canopy Cover and Crown Bulk Density by Alternative

Canopy closure reduction due to pine beetle attacks

Figure 10 Alternative 2- Proposed Action -Representative Treated Mixed Conifer Stand

Mixed Conifer-Structural Diversity-Cumulative Effects

Cumulative effects were analyzed at the wildlife implementation unit, in order to be consistent with

S&G TM-61. This scale was chosen for effects analysis because of Deschutes LRMP direction. The

following relevant past, present and future actions were considered to create uniform structural

conditions: clearcut, seed tree harvest at final removal, and overstory removal.

In addition to the project area, projects on the Deschutes Schedule Program of Work were included in

this analysis. Within this implementation unit, analyses of regeneration treatments include West Bend

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and Drink projects. West Bend was signed in 2012, and has additional areas proposed for seed tree cuts

in the implementation unit. The Drink Project does not have any proposed regeneration cuts so it will

not be included in this analysis. Other projects included Bend Municipal Watershed Fuelbreak, Bear

wallow Firewood, and Bear Wallow Mastication but do not include any regeneration cuts, so they were

not considered in this analysis. After reviewing the stand descriptions from the West Bend project, it

was determined that the following units are not stocked and after harvest will contribute to creation of

contiguous openings: a total of 482 acres.

The following units are either stocked with ponderosa pine, white fir or advanced regeneration in excess

of the Deschutes minimum stocking of 100 trees per acre (see Table 6).

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Project will evaluate meadow sites and beetle kill.

Key Issue--Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Introduction

Deschutes LRMP Standards and Guidelines TM-58 and TM-61 provide management direction for

horizontal diversity, specifically addressing harvest unit size and creation of openings. Comments from

several sources also centered on elements of stand structure including older trees, larger trees, multi-

layered structural complexity and skips and gaps. Horizontal diversity was chose as a measure for

lodgepole structural diversity. This is because lodgepole pines generally grow as even-aged stands (Silvics

Manual, 1990). Structural diversity does not occur as often within stands, but varies from stand to stand

on a larger landscape level. The Deschutes Forest Plan Standards and Guides TM-58 and TM-61 also

provide direction for created openings by vegetation type. This analysis also covers consistency with these

Standards and Guides.

TM-58 provides direction for created openings by vegetation type. Created openings can exceed 40 acres

in lodgepole pine to treat the “catastrophic situation” created by the mountain pine beetle epidemic.

Units are to be shaped to blend with the natural terrain.

TM-61 provides direction for creating essentially uniform structural conditions with timber management

activities. It applies to even-aged regeneration harvest units with regeneration less than 4.5 feet tall

Uniform conditions resulting from fires are not included in assessing whether implementation unit meet

this standard and guideline.

Presently none of the implementation units have openings greater than 100 acres where past timber

management has created essentially uniform structural conditions. Since 1967, there has not been a

harvest done within the affected implementation units, with the exception of Bear Wallow Firewood

which was considered salvage or intermediate treatment. No live trees were cut during this project;

therefore there was no creation of openings. The majority of even-aged treatments within these

implementation units occurred between the late 1960’s and early 1980’s. No even-aged or overstory

removal harvest has occurred within the past 45 years, therefore there are no openings greater than 100

acres created by timber harvest.

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Scope and Scale of Analysis

For identifying the spatial scale of analysis for a number of LRMP standards and guidelines, the Forest was

partitioned, often times along roads, into smaller geographic areas called wildlife implementation units.

These implementation units are no longer used for wildlife analysis, however to be consistent with other

vegetation management projects and the Deschutes LRMP were used as the spatial scale of analysis for

uniform structural conditions (TM-61). Proposed treatments overlay three wildlife implementation units,

which range in size from approximately 27,000 acres to 33,034 acres in size.

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The temporal scale of analysis is the next 10 years for horizontal diversity. It is during this timeframe

proposed treatments with potential to create uniform structural conditions would be implemented. It is

also the timeframe which treatments that contribute to horizontal diversity would be expected to growing

out of uniform structure.

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- -- Methods

The following even-aged regeneration harvest methods are the timber management activities considered

to create uniform structural conditions: clearcut, seed tree harvest at final removal, and overstory

removal (Standard and Guideline TM-61). To determine existing condition, GIS data layers were queried

to map where these harvest methods have been completed within the past 30 years (since and including

2014). Based on observations in the area of lodgepole pine regenerating these types of harvests, it was

assumed areas harvested prior to 2000 have regeneration greater than 4.5 feet tall, and therefore are not

considered openings. Harvest areas were merged to determine contiguous acres of openings. To

determine how the action alternatives would change the existing condition, areas proposed for these

even-aged regeneration harvest methods were mapped. Acres of openings, existing or proposed, were

grouped into single blocks. Areas greater than 100 acres in size with openings are mapped. Percent of

each affected implementation unit in openings was calculated.

Ongoing mountain pine beetle epidemics have created a condition of extensive mortality in the

lodgepole pine in this project area. Lodgepole is a component of all stands in the project area to varying

degrees. In the northern part of the project, in stands dominated by lodgepole pine, seed tree cuts will

be considered uniform structural conditions due to a lack of live understory. The number of seed trees is

not enough to meet minimum stocking, and therefore these areas will be considered openings once

treatment is completed. In the southern part of the project, stands have a higher component of live

understory. This understory is stocking the site and is greater than 4.5’ therefore is not considered an

opening. These southern stands equal 794 acres. The treatment in these stands are also seed tree cuts,

but will not be considered openings. The seed trees in conjunction with the regeneration present will

meet minimum stocking and provide stand structural diversity.

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Measures

Size of created opening (LRMP S&G TM-58) is reported for each treatment unit where the seed tree

regeneration harvest method is proposed.

Uniform structural conditions is measured in terms of percent of each implementation unit where timber

management activities have or will created openings in excess of 100 continuous acres (LRMP S&G TM-

61). Horizontal diversity is measured by the percent of the implementation unit with openings in excess

of 100 contiguous acres. The LRMP goal is to keep created openings at or below 5% for each wildlife

implementation unit.

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Alternative One-

Direct, Indirect and Cumulative Effects

In the no Action alternative, no changes will occur to the existing condition, which does not include any

openings due to timber harvesting activities greater than 100 acres. The dead lodgepole pine killed by

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mountain pine beetle is expected to continue to fall and within the next decade will be continuous areas

of heavy fuel loadings from dead and down trees. Approximately 0.01 percent of the wildlife

implementation units are currently in a contiguous open condition.

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine -- Alternative Two

Direct and Indirect Effects

In alternative 2, approximately 2,021 acres will be treated with seed tree cuts, but only 1,227 acres will

be considered contiguous openings. This is due to the 794 acres in the southern end of the project stocked

with true fir, mountain hemlock, and whitebark pine. Approximately 3.7 percent of the wildlife

implementation unit will be moved into an open condition.

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine --Alternative Three

Direct and Indirect Effects

In alternative 3, approximately 1,936 acres will be treated with seed tree cuts, but only 1,142 acres will

be considered contiguous openings. This is due to the 794 acres in the southern end of the project stocked

with true fir, mountain hemlock, and whitebark pine. Approximately 3.5 percent of the wildlife

implementation unit will be moved into a contiguous condition.

Structural Diversity – Lodgepole Pine

Cumulative Effects

Cumulative effects were analyzed at the wildlife implementation unit, in order to be consistent with

S&G TM-61. This scale was chosen for effects analysis because of Deschutes LRMP direction. The

following relevant past, present and future actions were considered to create uniform structural

conditions: clearcut, seed tree harvest at final removal, and overstory removal.

In addition to the project area, projects on the Deschutes Schedule Program of Work were included in

this analysis. Within this implementation unit, analyses of regeneration treatments include West Bend

and Drink projects. West Bend was signed in 2012, and has additional areas proposed for seed tree cuts

in the implementation unit. The Drink Project does not have any proposed regeneration cuts so it will

not be included in this analysis. Other projects included Bend Municipal Watershed Fuelbreak, Bear

wallow Firewood, and Bear Wallow Mastication but do not include any regeneration cuts, so they were

not considered in this analysis. After reviewing the stand descriptions from the West Bend project, it

was determined that the following units are not stocked and after harvest will contribute to creation of

contiguous openings: a total of 482 acres.

The following units are either stocked with ponderosa pine, white fir or advanced regeneration in excess

of the Deschutes minimum stocking of 100 trees per acre (see Table 6).

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EA_UNIT Alt. 3 Overstory Treatment ACRES OPENING

270 Seed tree 43 Y

274 Seed tree 32 Y

355 Seed tree 145 Y

342 Seed tree 132 Y

338 Seed tree 14 Y

271 Seed tree 116 N

359 Seed tree 7 N

505 Seed tree 6 N

506 Seed tree 8 N

353 Seed tree 17 N

343 Seed tree 10 N

336 Seed tree 25 N

308 Seed tree 87 N

362 Seed tree 80 N

456 Seed tree 72 N

307 Seed tree 25 N

301 Seed tree 65 N

269 Seed tree 9 N

Table 6. West Bend Units Considered Openings in Implementation Unit with Ursus. With the inclusion of the additional acres of created openings from the West Bend planning area, the

total acreage is 1,593 or 4.8% of the wildlife implementation unit. The effects are estimated to last for

approximately 10 years or until regeneration is 4.5’ tall. In light of the cumulative effects we are meeting

forest plan standard and guidelines.

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Figure 11. West Bend and Ursus Continuous Openings

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Figure 12 Cumulative Effects Analysis Scales

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Figure 13. Mapped Late Structure Old Growth in the Ursus Project Area

Analysis Issue--Dwarf Mistletoe

Dwarf mistletoe is a parasitic plant that occurs throughout conifers in North America. It is the most damaging disease in lodgepole pine, causing severe growth loss and increased tree mortality (Hawksworth and Dooling, 1984). Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.) is the most widely distributed conifer in western North America. About one third of the growing stock and one fourth of the annual lodgepole pine harvest are in the United States.

Dwarf mistletoes affect their hosts in many ways, some of which have been widely studied and understood and others have not. Heavily infected trees show a marked decline in vigor, as evidenced by upper crowns that are more open and have small yellow-green needles. The rates of height and diameter growth decline, seed and cone production is reduced and eventually trees start to die back from their tops. Premature death follows, usually added by secondary bark beetles (Hawksworth, 1996, pg. 10).

Spread is the initial establishment of a mistletoe plant on a host tree. Trees of any age or size are susceptible to dwarf mistletoe infection; however infection of very young or very small trees is relatively

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rare (Parameter 1978). There is both a local and long-distance spread of dwarf mistletoe seed. Local spread occurs when seed is ejected from a mistletoe plan on one tree, is intercepted by an uninfected tree and germinates to produce a new mistletoe plant. Long-distance spread occurs when birds or mammals spread mistletoe seed from one location to another. Rate of local spread is dependent on the structure of the stand.

Parameter (1978) states “rate of spread through two-storied stands or multi-storied stands is more rapid than through single-storied stands. Small trees provide little “screening” of mistletoe seed, therefore tall seed sources provide for greater unimpeded seed trajectories”. Hawksworth and Wiens (1996) state the following on local mistletoe spread:

Intensification is the increase of mistletoe plants on an infected host tree. The 6 class dwarf mistletoe rating (DMTR) system is a numerical rating system used to assess dwarf mistletoe infection levels in individual trees and stands (Hawksworth and Wiens 1996).

Figure 14. Hawksworth Dwarf Mistletoe Rating (DMR)

Hawksworth and Hinds (1964) studied even-aged lodgepole pine in Colorado. They found the following relationship between the length of time a stand had been infected with dwarf mistletoe and the plot dwarf mistletoe rating using the rating system of 1-6.

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Table 7. Hawksworth and Hinds (1964) Dwarf Mistletoe Intensification and Spread

Length of Time Infected Average Plot Mistletoe Rating

(Years) (DMR)

10 0.6

20 1.4

30 2.2

40 3.1

50 4

60 4.6

70 4.9

Hawksworth and Johnson (1989) summarize this study as follows:

Average stand dwarf mistletoe rating (DMR) increased an average of about one DMR class in 14 years in stands 15 to 60 years old. The rate was somewhat slower in stands under 15 and older than 60 years old.

Intensification of mistletoe in understory trees would be expected to be fastest within 30 feet of infected overstory tree. The upper crowns of these understory trees would be continually exposed to mistletoe seed from overstory trees, making it difficult for understory trees to outgrow the vertical spread of mistletoe. Besides being a source of mistletoe seed, overstory trees also compete with understory trees for site resources such as water and nutrients. This competition can reduce height growth of understory trees, further limiting the potential to outgrow vertical spread of mistletoe.

Historically, populations of dwarf mistletoe would be held in check by periodic stand replacement wildfires. Then mistletoe would spread back slowly into the new stand migrating from unburned areas. New infection centers would also be established by birds or other wildlife.

The lodgepole pine within the lodgepole pine plant association groups are infected with moderate to high levels of dwarf mistletoe in all age classes, which is a Hawksworth severity rating of a 5-6. Dwarf mistletoe rating of 5 to 6 is where dwarf mistletoe is found in the bole, limbs, and crown.

Dwarf mistletoe witches brooms frequently act as fire ladders to spread flames from ground fires up

into the crowns. The lodgepole pine seed source stocking the site after the regeneration removal will

continue to infect the regeneration. Heavy to moderate levels of dwarf mistletoe within the mixed

conifer plant associations was observed on the true fir in scattered patches. The true fir was

experiencing some mortality in all size classes that could be attributed to dwarf mistletoe.

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Dwarf Mistletoe - Existing Condition

According to the FEIS for the Deschutes LRMP (USDA Forest Service 1990b), dwarf mistletoe is widely

distributed on the Deschutes National Forest. It is the group of pathogens most impacting the Forest

(USDA Forest Service 1990b). Based on the 1985 Vegetative Resource Survey, dwarf mistletoe was

present on an estimated 34 percent of the inventoried acres of ponderosa pine type, 73 percent of the

mixed conifer type, and 66 percent of the lodgepole pine type (USDA Forest Service 1990b).

Lodgepole pine dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium americanum), white fir mistletoe (Arceuthobium

abietinum) and white fir dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium abietinum f.sp. concoloris) is present within a

large majority of the areas proposed for treatment. Lodgepole pine dwarf mistletoe is most commonly

present. Informal surveys indicate that mistletoe is present in 80 to 90 percent of the lodgepole pine in

the project area. Major effects that dwarf mistletoes have on their hosts include: 1) reduced heights and

diameter growth, 2) increased mortality, 3) reduced seed production and reduced seed viability, 4)

reduced wood strength and increased knot size 5) increased susceptibility to attack by insects, particularly

bark beetles and 6) increased flammability (Hawksworth 1978).

Mortality rates of infected seedlings are high, particularly those with main-stem infections. Bole infections

on young trees less than 6 feet tall will usually kill the tree (Hawksworth 1997). Young trees that survive

will have reduced height growth compared to uninfected trees (Hawksworth and Wiens 1996).

Hawksworth and Johnson (1989) summarize the effects of mistletoe on tree diameter growth as follows:

Low intensities of dwarf mistletoe have no measurable effect on radial (or diameter) growth. As a rule,

the threshold level for growth reduction seems to be class 4 or greater, or when about one-half of the

crowns become infected.

Dwarf mistletoe is uniformly present in Ursus stands and at high severity levels (DMR5 - DMR6) in

lodgepole pine and white fir species. The priority host, lodgepole pine poles (3-9” DBH) make up 90% of

the overstory. Characteristics consuming overstory Lodgepole pines in heavy infection ratings contain all

or a combination of: branch swelling, brooms, growth loss, branch flagging, decay, distortion, top kill,

and in 80% of lodgepole pine poles, mortality. Infection in overstory lodgepole limbs were 100% and

predominantly occurred in the mid to top third of crown brooms. Yellow and olive colored shoots were

found growing anywhere from ½”- 6” in length in the stem and crown. Other commonalities in

dead/dying lodgepole were bole swelling and old limb cankers. Approximately 90% of lodgepole pine

overstory presented most if not all of these indicator characteristics. Infection was present in 30-40% of

understory saplings averaging 10’ in height. Seedlings showed mistletoe in the limbs and top of tree with

severity levels (DMR1 –DMR5). Limb cankers, were occasionally found in saplings that also presented

winter and other damaging agents.

Dwarf Mistletoe --Scope and Scale of Analysis

The scale of analysis is the area proposed for treatment and the area immediately adjacent (within 30

feet). Beyond this area, the effects of treatments on mistletoe spread are not considered to be

qualitatively meaningful. Intensification of mistletoe in understory trees would be expected to be fastest

within 30 feet of infected overstory tree. Also mistletoe spreads about 1 foot per year and the time

horizon of interest is 30 years.

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Dwarf Mistletoe --Measures

Dwarf mistletoe spread and intensification will be the measures used to assess effects on dwarf mistletoe.

Spread is the increase in the number of trees infected with dwarf mistletoe. Intensification is the increase

in the number of mistletoe plants on infected trees.

Dwarf Mistletoe -- Effects --Alternative 1 (No Action)

Direct and Indirect effects

Lodgepole Pine

Existing lodgepole pine overstory trees (estimated at 70-200 trees per acre) could live another 30 to 40

years. These mistletoe infected overstory trees have dwarf mistletoe ratings of 4-6. They would provide

continuous exposure to understory trees of mistletoe seed. The rate of spread for mistletoe ranges from

1.2 to 1.7 feet per year. At this rate of spread and the high densities of infected over story trees, the

stands are estimated to be 100 percent exposed to dwarf mistletoe infection within 8-12 years. The

number of understory trees infected with dwarf mistletoe would increase (mistletoe spread). Mistletoe

spread to understory trees would also occur along the edge of stands where adjacent trees are infected

with mistletoe. Birds and mammals would continue to spread minor amounts of mistletoe seed into the

interior of the unit. In addition to mistletoe spread, there would be an increase in the number of

mistletoe plants on infected understory trees (mistletoe intensification). As mistletoe intensifies in the

understory, the potential for the understory to develop into large or old structure tree growth would be

reduced. Potential for the understory to utilize site growth potential, provide future large snag habitat,

and develop into late or old structure would be decreased.

Mistletoe intensification would likely be influenced by infected overstory trees present in the unit.

Within single-story stand structures, mistletoe has been found to intensify at a rate of approximately

one dwarf mistletoe rating class every 14 to 18 years (Parmeter 1978 and Hawksworth 1989). At this

rate it would take approximately 40 to 60 years for dwarf mistletoe infection levels to reach a mistletoe

rating of three (DMR 3). As a rule, the threshold level for growth reduction seems to be class 3, or when

about one-half of the crowns become infected (Hawksworth and Johnson 1989). Rate of mistletoe

intensification in an understory growing beneath an infected overstory has not been quantified. It

would be expected, however, within 30 to 60 feet of infected overstory, intensification of mistletoe in

understory trees would be faster than rates observed in single-story stands. The upper crowns of these

understory trees would be continually exposed to mistletoe seed from overstory trees. It would be

difficult for understory trees to outgrow or stay even with the vertical spread of mistletoe.

As mistletoe intensifies, understory growth potential would decrease. Projections compare growth of

understories infected with mistletoe to growth of similar understories with no dwarf mistletoe infection.

Reductions in stand volume reflect reduced growth in both diameter and height and increased

mortality. Several studies show that severely infected stands produce only one-half to one-third the

merchantable volume of timber expected from uninfected stands on comparable sites (Hawksworth and

Wiens 1996). Hawksworth and Hinds (1964) found the following in lodgepole pine stands in Colorado:

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Acceptable volumes cannot be obtained in stands that are infected while they are young.

Merchantable volumes in 100-year-old stands infected for 70 years average about 300 cu.ft. /ac.,

compared with 2,350 cu.ft. per healthy stands of the same age on the same sites.

White Fir

Mistletoe intensification will continue, causing reductions in stand growth and increased mortality rates.

The rates of height and diameter growth will decline, seed and cone production is reduced, and eventually

trees start to die back from their tops. Premature death follows, usually aided by secondary bark beetles

(Hawksworth p.10). Without treatment or a high intensity wildfire, this cycle of infection will likely

continue indefinitely, causing reductions in stand growth and increased mortality rates. There is reduced

potential for trees in the understory to: a) utilize site growth potential and b) develop into relatively large

green trees, one of the ecologically valuable components of late successional forests.

Lodgepole pine and white fir--Cumulative Effects

Two projects fall within the Ursus project boundary, the Bear Wallow Firewood and Bear Wallow

Mastication. These projects do not contribute to the cumulative effects of mistletoe because no live

overstory trees will be cut in either project. Cumulatively there will be no effect on the landscape level,

because dwarf mistletoe effects are localized to the tree and stand level for effects.

Dwarf Mistletoe-- Effects --Alternative 2 and 3

Lodgepole Pine

A total of 1,118 (alternative 3) to 2,021 (alternative 2) acres of seed tree treatments are proposed in

lodgepole pine. These units would have an estimated 20-40 overstory trees per acre. These treatments

would better reduce potential for spread and intensification of mistletoe, but not eliminate infection

completely. Felling or girdling of mistletoe infected overstory trees would greatly reduce, if not

eliminate the overstory mistletoe seed source within proposed treatment units. Spread and

intensification rates of mistletoe would be minimized. These treatments would reduce, but not

eliminate, dwarf mistletoe in overstory trees. With fewer infected overstory trees, the rate mistletoe

spread and intensifactions in understory trees would be reduced. Potential for understory to utilize site

growth potential and provide future large diameter trees would be increased.

Direct and Indirect Effects. Within treatment units, proposed treatments would reduce the number of

overstory trees infected with dwarf mistletoe. With fewer infected overstory trees, the rate at which

mistletoe spreads and intensifies in understory trees would be reduced. Potential for the understory to

utilize site growth potential, provide future large snag habitat, and develop into late or old structure

would be increased.

Mistletoe infected overstory would be reduced to 20 to 40 seed trees per acre. These trees would be

retained as a seed source to establish a new cohort of lodgepole pine. The estimated time needed to

establish sufficient regeneration is 10 years. After the 10 year time frame, or when the seedlings reach 3

feet, the seed trees will be girdled to reduce the potential to infect the understory. Smaller trees have

less potential to become infected because of the small surface area of their crowns. Therefore removing

or girdling infected overstory trees can prevent exposure and infection from dwarf mistletoe. Spread to

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understory trees would also occur along the edge of stands where adjacent stands are infected with

mistletoe. A portion of the live trees retained to provide future snag habitat will likely have dwarf

mistletoe infection. Stands larger than 20 acres would have the least proportion of their area influence

by the edge (Hawksworth and Johnson 1978). Birds and mammals would continue to spread minor

amounts of mistletoe seed into the interior of the unit.

Proposed whipfelling treatment would reduce the amount of mistletoe currently present in understory

trees. There are places where mistletoe has already spread to older/taller understory trees. These

would be removed in the whip felling.

No mistletoe infected overstory trees present within units. Mistletoe spread is from adjacent mistletoe infected stands. Since the overstory trees would be girdled, infection sources from the overstory would be eliminated. With whip falling, which greatly reduces existing mistletoe in the understory, the percent of the stand infected would be near zero. Regeneration treatments are of different sizes but generally the small blocks of treated units (sometimes groupings of multiple regeneration units) would be the fasts to become infected with mistletoe. After 70 years of growth in the understory, only 20% of the stands would be infected.

Size of Regeneration Unit

Percent of Stand Infected, no overstory trees present

Age of Understory in Regeneration Unit 20 acres 50 acres 100 acres 150 acres 1000 acres

0 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 0 0 0

20 8 5 3 3 1

30 11 7 4 4 2

40 16 10 6 6 2

50 21 14 7 8 3

60 26 17 10 10 4

70 30 20 12 12 5

80 34 23 14 13 5

90 39 26 17 15 6

100 43 28 20 17 7

110 47 31 23 19 8

120 50 34 25 20 8

Table 8. Potential for spread of dwarf mistletoe into regeneration units of varying sizes.

Mistletoe intensification would likely be slower in understory trees than if infected overstory trees

remained. With a reduced overstory source of mistletoe, fewer understory trees would have their

upper crowns exposed to mistletoe seed. There would be greater potential for these understory trees

to outgrow or at least stay even with the vertical spread of mistletoe. In even-aged stands, if at least 10

inches of height growth can be maintained annually, tree growth can keep pace with dwarf mistletoe

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infection (Maffei, personal communication, 2015). Within regeneration units, there is potential to

maintain this amount of height growth until understory trees reach an age of approximately 60 years.

During this time, even with mistletoe infection, height growth of understory trees could equal or exceed

the vertical spread of mistletoe. Intensification of mistletoe in the understory would be comparable to

rates of intensification in even-aged stands. With reduced mistletoe spread and intensification,

potential for understory to utilize site growth potential would be increased.

Size of Regeneration Unit

(Average stand dwarf mistletoe rating)

Age of understory

20 acres 50 acres 100 acres

150 acres

1,000 acres

0 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 0 0 0

20 0 0 0 0 0

30 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0

40 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0

50 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0

60 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

70 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1

80 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2

90 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2

100 1.5 1 0.8 0.6 0.2

110 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3

120 2 1.3 1 0.8 0.3

Table 9.Projected intensification of dwarf mistletoe in regeneration units of various sizes.

No mistletoe infected overstory trees present within units. Mistletoe spread is from

adjacent mistletoe infected stands.

Cumulative effects. Future precommercial thinning could reduce the amount of mistletoe present in the

understory. Removal of mistletoe infected understory during pre-commerical thinning would likely

result in patches with light understory stocking centered on infected overstory trees along the edge of

unit or in retention patches.

Lodgepole Pine --Cumulative Effects

Two projects fall within the Ursus project boundary, Bear Wallow Firewood and Bear Wallow

Mastication. These projects do not contribute to the cumulative effects of mistletoe because no live

overstory trees will be cut in either project. Cumulatively there will be no effect on the landscape level,

because dwarf mistletoe effects are localized to the tree and stand level for effects.

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Direct and Indirect Effects--White Fir

Treatments are focused primarily on the salvage of dead lodgepole pine and the thinning of understory

trees (thinning from below). Thinning treatments would remove live trees from all canopy layers and have

the best potential to reduce the current rate of dwarf mistletoe spread and intensification. Treatments

would favor retaining trees with the least amount of dwarf mistletoe infection. This would reduce, but

not eliminate, dwarf mistletoe from within treatment units. Thinning from below that would occur with

these treatments would simplify canopy structure and reduce stand density. Mistletoe intensification will

continue, causing increased reductions in stand growth and increased mortality rates. There is reduced

potential for trees in understory to: a) utilize site growth potential and b) develop into relatively large

green trees, one of the ecologically valuable components of late successional forests (Hawksworth, 1978).

Simplified canopy structure and reduced stand density associated with thinning would reduce the

probability of mistletoe seed dispersal to susceptible understory hosts and lateral spread among host

trees (Hessburg et al. 1994).

White fir—Cumulative Effects

Two projects fall within the Ursus project boundary, Bear Wallow Firewood and Bear Wallow

Mastication. These projects do not contribute to the cumulative effects of mistletoe because no live

overstory trees will be cut in either project. Cumulatively there will be no effect on the landscape level,

because dwarf mistletoe effects are localized to the tree and stand level for effects.

Key Issue-- Retention of Large Trees Comments recommended retaining all large trees as part of any prescriptions in the mixed conifer

habitats in order to provide stand complexity. Preserving large trees that currently occupy this area

would reduce any potential for future lack of large snags that may develop as a result of harvest and

would help meet the needs of wildlife. Prescribed treatment calls for protection of large ponderosa pine

which will provide priority for retention of these trees and they will not be included in this analysis. This

analysis covers the effect (potential reduction) of large tree structure in white/grand fir greater than or

equal to 22 inches DBH. A size or a diameter limit was chosen as the best metric to measure effect on

trees that are old or large on the landscape. Other considerations were made, such as using Van Pelt’s

guide to identify old grand (white) fir, but due to the characteristics of white/grand fir it was determined

to not be an accurate metric. Bark on white/grand fir never develops the thickness of its fire-tolerant

associates. The transformation that many trees experience from young gray bark to increasingly more

colorful mature bark does not occur with white/grand fir. Even in giant old trees, bark characteristics

reveal little about age. Like Douglas fir and western larch, white/grand fir is an opportunist, and has

epimoric branch formation. As the stand matures and conditions change around a tree, light penetration

may allow new branches to grow where they had been previously lost. Crown condition, tree form, and

bark fissures are not an accurate way to tell age. Other than size, there is little else on white/grand fir

that indicates age (Van Pelt, 2007).

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Figure 15. Upper crowns of old grand fir (from Van Pelt 2008).

Retention of Large Trees --Methods

Using LIDAR tree point data (which is a detection system that uses light from a laser to measure various

forest metrics, such as tree densities and heights) and informal exams, an assessment was made to

determine at what size (diameter at breast height) large trees are a rarity on the landscape. Recent

stand exams (2013-2014) measuring the relationship between white /grand fir size and age were also

used to establish a relationship between size and age (Figure 13). The LiDAR was used to map the

number and distribution of the large trees on the landscape. Informal walk through exams were done to

validate the data. 22” diameter at breast height was determined to be the size at which large white

/grand fir are uncommon on the landscape and where trees are beginning to reach the age of 80 to 100.

Many of the larger diameter white /grand fir in the Ursus area are 60-80 years old, and they released

after the overstory removal of the large ponderosa pine in the 1960s.

Retention of Large Trees –Measures

This analysis covers the effect (potential reduction) of large tree structure in white/grand fir greater

than or equal to 22 inches DBH.

Retention of Large Trees –Scope and Scale of Analysis

The scope of this analysis extends to the project area of 6,066 acres. The scale of this analysis is 30

years, until 2044.

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Figure 16.White Fir Size-Age distribution on mixed conifer sites on the Deschutes National

Forest.

Retention of Large Trees –Effects--Alternative 1 (No Action)

Alternative 1 would have no direct or indirect effects on the existing level of large trees in the project

area. With Alternative 1, no timber management activities would occur. There would be no change from

the existing condition previously described. While scattered individual or localized groups of trees likely

would continue to be killed by dwarf mistletoe, reducing the number of larger diameter trees on the

landscape, levels of mortality would not be sufficient to change the existing proportion of size structure

classes present on the landscape. Within areas being analyzed for treatment, tree density currently is, or

is trending towards levels, high enough to reduce tree vigor. Which means trees would have high levels

of competition and be stressed for site resources. This leads to decreased tree vigor, growth, and

susceptibility to insects and disease (Christiaensen, 1987). Retaining existing large tree structure would

be impacted as trees would be more vulnerable to insects and disease. The potential for developing

smaller trees into future large tree structure would be reduced.

Retention of Large Trees –Effects--Alternative 2

With Alternative 2, timber management activities would occur. The proposed treatment calls for

thinning from below, which is the removal of trees from the lower crown classes (smallest trees) to

favor those in the upper crown (large trees). Therefore smaller trees will be the ones targeted for

removed. Modeling the sampled stands and proposed prescriptions in FVS indicate that on average the

largest tree being removed for treatment is 16” to 18” in diameter at DBH. The exception would be

where dense clumps of large white/grand fir or ponderosa pine (22 inches or larger) exceeded the

prescribed stocking levels. Therefore, there may be an effect on large white /grand fir but it is not likely

based on the sample data.

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Tre

e a

ge

DBH

White Fir size-age distribution

Data from largest white fir on data collection

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Within areas being analyzed for treatment, tree density after treatment, will be low enough to increase

tree vigor in the trees that have lower infections of disease (primarily dwarf mistletoe). Growth rates

and increased vigor is not expected in trees with heavy mistletoe infection. Observed growth rates and a

reduction in tree densities, growth rates could be assumed to be 2 inches of diameter growth per

decade or greater in trees with minimal dwarf mistletoe infection. This increases the development of

future large tree structure. Potential for retaining existing large tree structure would be increased, by

increasing availability of site resource and tree vigor. Increased vigor contributes to increased tree

resistance to insects and disease.

Retention of Large Trees –Effects--Alternative 3

With Alternative 3, timber management activities would occur. The proposed treatment calls for

thinning from below with a diameter limit of 22 inches at DBH. Thinning from below is the removal of

trees from the lower crown classes (smallest trees) to favor those in the upper crown (large trees). Due

to the diameter limit no large white/grand fir over 22 inches DBH will be cut. Due to the diameter limit;

there is no effect to large tree structure. Modeling the sampled stands and proposed prescriptions in

FVS indicate that on average the largest tree being removed for treatment is 16” to 18” in diameter at

DBH.

Within areas being analyzed for treatment, tree density after treatment, will be low enough to increase

tree vigor in the trees that have lower infections of disease (primarily dwarf mistletoe). Growth rates

and increased vigor is not expected in trees with heavy mistletoe infection. Observed growth rates and a

reduction in tree densities, growth rates could be assumed to be 2 inches of diameter growth per

decade in trees with minimal dwarf mistletoe infection. This increases the development of future large

tree structure. Potential for retaining existing large tree structure would be increased, by increasing

availability of site resource and tree vigor. Increased vigor contributes to increased tree resistance to

insects and disease (Christiansen, E., et al., 1987). Under Alternative 3, there may be instances where

dense clumps of larger trees exceeding the desired stocking levels will remain at high stocking levels

because of the diameter limit; whereas this would not be the case with Alternative 2 because it does not

have the diameter limit.

Retention of Large Trees –Cumulative Effects --Alternatives One, Two and Three

Two projects fall within the Ursus project boundary, the Bear Wallow Firewood and Bear Wallow

Mastication. These projects do not contribute to the cumulative effects of retaining large trees because

no live overstory trees will be cut in either project.

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Citations Agee, J. K. 1993. Fire ecology of Pacific Northwest forests. Island Press. Washington, D.C. 493p.

Agee, J.K. 1996. The influence of forest structure on fire behavior. Presented at the 17th Annual Forest

Vegetation Management Conference. Redding, CA. January 16-18, 1996. 17p.

Alexander, R.R.; Tackle, D.; Dahms, W.G. 1967. Site indexes for lodgepole pine, with corrections for stand

density: Methodology. USDA Forest Service. Research Paper RM-29. Rocky Mountain Forest and Range

Experiment Station. 18p.

Booser, J. and White, J. Undated. Calculating maximum stand density indexed (SDI) for Deschutes National

Forest plant associations. 9 p.

Burns, Russell M., and Barbara H. Honkala, tech. coords. 1990. Silvics of North America: 1. Conifers; 2. Hardwoods. Agriculture Handbook 654. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, DC. vol.2, 877 p.

Christeansen, E, R.H.Waring, A. Berryman.1987. Resistance of Conifers to Bark Beetle Attack: Searching

for General Relationships; Forest Ecology Management. 22:89-106

Cochran, P.H.; Geist, J.M.; Clemens, D.L.; Clausnitzer, R.R.; Powell, D.C. 1994. Suggested stocking levels for

forest stands in northeastern Oregon and southeastern Washington. USDA Forest Service PNW-RN-513.

21p.

Cochran, P.H. 1998. Examples of mortality and reduced annual increments of white fir induced by drought,

insects, and disease at different stand densities. USDA Forest Service. Res. Note PNW-RN-525. 19 p.

Cochran, P.H. and Dahms, W.G. 2000. Growth of lodgepole pine thinned to various densities on two sites

with differing productivities in central Oregon. USDA Forest Service Res. Pap. PNW-RP-520. 59 p.

Deschutes National Forest. 1995. Bull Creek watershed analysis. October 5, 2012. Tumalo Creek

Watershed, Bull Creek, Triangle Hill

Deschutes National Forest. 1995. Tumalo Creek watershed analysis. October 5, 1998. Tumalo Creek

Watershed, Bull Creek, Triangle Hill

Deschutes National Forest. 1995. October 5, 1995. Tumalo Creek Watershed, Bull Creek, Triangle Hill

Dolph, R.E. 1981. A review of mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole and second-growth ponderosa

pine stands in south-central Oregon. In: Deschutes National Forest mountain pine beetle integrated pest

management plan technical report. 89-132.

Eglitis, Andris (Forest Entomologist, Deschutes National Forest) personal communication, June 30, 2015.

Fettig, C.J., Klepzig, K.D., Billings, R.F., Munson, A.S., Nebeker, T.E., Jose F.N., Nowak, J.T. 2007.

The effectiveness of vegetation management practices for prevention and control of bark beetle

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infestations in coniferous forests of the western and southern United States. Forest Ecology and

Management. 238. 24-53.

Geils, B.W.; Tovar, J.C.; Moody, B. (Tech. Coords.). 2002. Mistletoes of North American conifers. USDA

Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-98. 123p.

Hawksworth, F.G. 1978. Biological factors of dwarf mistletoe in relation to control. In: Proceedings of the

symposium on dwarf mistletoe control through forest management. USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech.

Rep.

PSW-31. 5-15.

Hawksworth, F.G. and Johnson, D.W. 1989. Biology and management of dwarf mistletoe in lodgepole pine

in the Rocky Mountains. USDA Forest Service. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-169. 38p.

Hawksworth F.G. and Wiens, D. 1996. Dwarf mistletoes: biology, pathology, and systematics. USDA Forest

Service. Ag. Hndbk. 709. 410 p.

Helms, J.A. (Editor). 1998. The dictionary of forestry. The Society of American Foresters. 210p.

Hemstrom, M.; Spies, T.; Palmer, C.; Kiester, R.; Teply, J.; McDonald, P.; Warbington, R. 1998. Late-

successional and old-growth forest effectiveness monitoring plan for the Northwest Forest Plan. USDA

Forest Service.

Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-438. 37p.

Hessburg, P.F.; Mitchell, R.G.; and Filip, G.M. 1994. Historical and current roles of insects and pathogens

in Eastern Oregon and Washington forested landscapes. PNW Gen. Tech. Rep. 327. 72p.

Hopkins, B. 1992. Region 6 interim old growth definition for lodgepole pine series. In: Region 6 interim old

growth definition for Douglas-fir series, grand fir/white fir series, interior Douglas fir, lodgepole pine,

pacific silver fir, ponderosa pine, port-orford-cedar and tanok (redwood), subalpine fir, and western

hemlock series. 1993. USDA Forest Service. Pacific Northwest Region.

Jenkins, M.J.; Herbertson, E.; Page, W.;Jorgensen, C.A.. 2008.Bark beetles, fuels, fires, and implications for

forest management in the Intermountain West. Forest Ecology and Management. 254.16-34.

Jensen, Chris. (Forest Genetics Technician, Deschutes National Forest) personal communication,

November 18, 2014.

Maffei, Helen (Forest Pathologist, Deschutes National Forest) personal communication, June 30, 2015.

Mitchell, R.G. Undated. Anatomy of a mountain pine beetle outbreak in central Oregon. Silviculture

Laboratory. Bend, Oregon. 11p.

Moeur, M.; Spies, T.A.; Hemstrom, M.; Martin, J.R.; Alegria, J.; Browning, J.; Cissel, J.; Cohen, W.B.; Demeo,

T.E.; Healey, S.; Warbington, R. 2005. Northwest Forest Plan – The first 10 years (1994-2003): status and

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trend of late-successional and old-growth forest. USDA Forest Service. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-646.

142p.

Parmeter, J.R. 1978. Forest Stand Dynamics and ecological factors in relation to dwarf mistletoe spread,

impact, and control. In: Proceedings of the Symposium of dwarf mistletoe control through forest

management. USDA For. Ser. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-31. 190 p.

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Mountain area. Report to Congress from Forest Health Protection, Washington Office, Forest Service,

U.S. Department of Agriculture. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-62. 46p.

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Northwest Region.

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Deschutes and John Day River Basins Administered by Deschutes and Ochoco National Forests.

Deschutes National Forest. Pacific Northwest Region.

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Northwest Region. R6-ECOL-104-1985. 138p.

Appendix A LiDAR Sensitivity Analysis LiDAR is a technology which uses laser reflecting back to the Lidar apparatus to identify the distance

from the source. This was used from an airplane to produce very precise accurate and high-resolution

images of the surface of the earth and vegetation. Tree height, tree density (trees per acre), and canopy

cover are measures directly derived from Lidar data. Tree diameter is indirectly derived from Lidar data

using regression equations whose variables include potential natural vegetation group and tree height.

Classifications are for 30 meter square grid pixels.

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The Deschutes National Forest had Lidar flown in 2012. Lidar tree density estimates are very precise, but

do not measure tree mortality. Due to the mountain pine beetle epidemic, and the acreage of lodgepole

pine, assessing tree density and live or dead status was vital to this project. To calibrate the accuracy of

stocking, assess levels of mortality for modeling in FVS and using the Lidar data on the project scale, the

Lidar data was compared to photo interpreted images from the NAIP satellite imagery. One acre plots

were drawn in GIS and tree stocking and mortality were totaled and them compared to the same tree

points from Lidar within the same one acre circle.

The results were that the Lidar data under counted tree density by 23%.

NAIP TPA

PLOT LiDAR TPA

LIVE DEAD TOTAL MORALITY %

(NAIP-LIDAR)

1 166 95 50 145 34% -21

2 123 111 60 171 35% 48

3 158 83 49 132 37% -26

4 119 90 68 158 43% 39

5 141 105 59 164 36% 23

6 92 70 63 133 47% 41

7 153 95 47 142 33% -11

8 172 104 89 193 46% 21

9 123

10 118

11 127 95 105 201 52% 25

12 176 106 61 167 37% 29

13 138 82 73 155 47% 27

14 128 77 62 139 45% 62

15 77

16 116

17 154 94 91 185 49% 31

18 191 106 108 209 52% 18

19 192 79 105 185 57% -7

20 178

21 147 Average TPA

165

Appendix B. Forest Vegetation Simulator Modeling Methods Modeling of forest vegetation measurements for analysis or key issues for fire/fuels, wildlife and

silviculture were done with stand exams conducted between 1998 and 1999 with the program Forest

Vegetation Simulator (FVS) provided by the Forest Service. The documentation, description,

instructions, and software for this program are available on the internet at www.fs.fed.us/fmsc/fvs. FVS

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is a collection of forest growth simulation models. It was initially developed in 1973, and has evolved to

incorporate a growing body of scientific knowledge gleaned from decades of natural resources research.

It is based on the Prognosis growth and yield model. It has linkages to the corporate software including

databases, geographic information systems and the National Volume Estimator Library (FVS). The Fire

and Fuels Extension (FFE)allows users to simulates fuel dynamics, potential fire behavior (over time)

and can predict useful fuel metrics. These metrics include fuel residue (loadings), crown bulk density,

and height to live base crown.

This model was used to compare alternative actions including timber harvest and canopy cover. Canopy

cover refers to the proportion of the forest floor covered by the vertical projections of tree crowns. This

is analogous to the use of the term “cover” by ecologists to refer to the proportion of ground area

occupied by the above ground parts of plants. The SORNEC variant dated July 7, 2014 was used. This

variant of the model is based on studies measuring stand characteristics throughout the northwest and

has specific adaptations for the central Oregon area.

Due to the fact that the exams were conducted in the late 1990’s, some adjustments to the data were

needed. Tree growth was projected to 2014, to reflect current stand conditions. Disease and damage

recorded in the stand exams were increased to reflect current infection levels of dwarf mistletoe and

annosus root rot. Forest Service Insect and Disease aerial surveys were used to adjust mortality rates in

the lodgepole pine to reflect the mountain pine beetle epidemic, and fir engraver beetle in the white fir.

Mortality rates in lodgepole pine greater than 8” DBH were adjusted to be 80% (see Appendix).

Prescriptions proposed in the action alternatives were then simulated to provide measures of average

canopy cover, and DBH for effects on dispersal habitat. Fuels metrics such as crown bulk density, height

to live crown, tons per acre and others were also assessed to assure that proposed actions met the

desired condition.

Canopy cover corrections were computed using equations in Crookston and Stage (1999). The way FVS models canopy cover is it puts in a correction factor for over lapping crowns that may be in different canopy layers. As a sensitivity analysis an equation that does not correct for overlapping crowns was also used. The equation is listed below.

FVS Sensitivity Analysis for Crown Closure

* Uncorrected %CC = -100*LN(1-corrected %CC/100) * Corrected %CC = 100*(1-exp(-.01*uncorrected %CC)) * COMPUTE 0 B_cc=SpMcDBH(7,All,0,0.0,500.0,0.0,500.0,0) B_uncc = -100*ALog(1-b_cc/100) A_cc=SpMcDBH(7,All,0,0.0,500.0,0.0,500.0,3) A_uncc = -100*ALog(1-a_cc/100) END

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FVS Commands Used for Ursus

SPECPREF DATE/CYCLE= 2014; SPECIES= WF (CODE= 4); THINNING SELECTION PRIORITY= 500. THINBBA DATE/CYCLE= 2014; RESIDUAL= 80.00; PROPORTION OF SELECTED TREES REMOVED= 1.000 DBH OF REMOVED TREES WILL RANGE FROM 0.0 TO 999.0 INCHES, AND HEIGHT OF REMOVED TREES WILL RANGE FROM 0.0 TO 999.0 FEET. SVS PRODUCE SVS-READY DATA PLOT GEOMETRY CODE = 1 (0=SQUARE, IGNORE POINTS; 1=SUBDIVIDED SQUARE; 2=ROUND, IGNORE POINTS; 3=SUBDIVIDED CIRCLE) GROUND FILE GRID RESOLUTION (ZERO IMPLIES NO GROUND FILE)= 100 RANGE POLES ARE DRAWN. SUBPLOT BOUNDARIES ARE NOT DRAWN. OUTPUT DATA ARE IMPERIAL. COLOR INDEX= 15 COMPUTE DATE/CYCLE= 0; DEFINE THE FOLLOWING: CBH=CrBaseHt END COMPUTE DATE/CYCLE= 0; DEFINE THE FOLLOWING: QMD=SPMCDBH(5,All,0,1.,200.,0.,500.,0,0.) END COMPUTE DATE/CYCLE= 0; DEFINE THE FOLLOWING: WF_MC=SpMcDBH(9,WF,0,0.,200.,0.,500.,2,0.) WF_TC=SpMcDBH(3,WF,0,0.,200.,0.,500.,2,0.) LP_MC=SpMcDBH(9,LP,0,0.,200.,0.,500.,2,0.) LP_TC=SpMcDBH(3,LP,0,0.,200.,0.,500.,2,0.) PP_MC=SpMcDBH(9,PP,0,0.,200.,0.,500.,2,0.) PP_TC=SpMcDBH(3,PP,0,0.,200.,0.,500.,2,0.) CBH=CrBaseHt CBD=CrBulkDn END TREELIST DATE/CYCLE= 0; DATA SET REFERENCE NUMBER = 3.; HEADING SUPPRESSION CODE = 0. (0=WITH HEADING, OTHER VALUES=SUPPRESS HEADING). CUTLIST DATE/CYCLE= 0; DATA SET REFERENCE NUMBER = 3.; HEADING SUPPRESSION CODE = 0. (0=WITH HEADING, OTHER VALUES=SUPPRESS HEADING). ATRTLIST DATE/CYCLE= 0; DATA SET REFERENCE NUMBER = 3.; HEADING SUPPRESSION CODE = 0.

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(0=WITH HEADING, OTHER VALUES=SUPPRESS HEADING). FIXMORT DATE/CYCLE= 2008; SPECIES=LP (CODE= 7); MORTALITY RATE= 0.8000 ONLY TREES GREATER THAN 8.00 AND LESS THAN 999.00 INCHES DBH ARE AFFECTED. TYPE CODE = 0.; (0=REPLACE MODEL PREDICTION, 1=ADD TO MODEL PREDICTION, 2=USE MAXIMUM RATE, 3=MULTIPLY MODEL BY). YARDLOSS DATE/CYCLE= 2014; PROPORTION OF HARVESTED STEMS LEFT IN STAND = 0.0000 PROPORTION OF NON-REMOVED HARVEST THAT IS DOWN = 0.0000 PROPORTION OF CROWNS REMAINING IN STAND FROM REMOVED STEMS = 0.0000 CYCLEAT REQUESTED YEAR FOR A CYCLE =2015 THINMIST DATE/CYCLE= 2014; TREES WITH A DMR OF 6. WILL BE REMOVED. DBH OF REMOVED TREES WILL RANGE FROM 0.0 TO 999.0 INCHES. PROPORTION OF SELECTED TREES REMOVED= 1.000 THINMIST DATE/CYCLE= 2014; TREES WITH A DMR OF 5. WILL BE REMOVED. DBH OF REMOVED TREES WILL RANGE FROM 0.0 TO 999.0 INCHES. PROPORTION OF SELECTED TREES REMOVED= 1.000 FMIN FIRE MODEL KEYWORDS: POTFIRE THE POTENTIAL FIRE REPORT WILL BE PRINTED STARTING IN DATE/CYCLE 1, FOR 200 YEARS USING 1 YEAR INCREMENTS. FUELOUT THE ALL FUELS REPORT WILL BEGIN PRINTING IN DATE/CYCLE 1, FOR 200 YEARS USING 1 YEAR INCREMENTS. BURNREPT THE BURN CONDITIONS REPORT WILL BE WRITTEN WHEN A FIRE OCCURS. REPORTING WILL BEGIN IN DATE/CYCLE 1 AND WILL CONTINUE FOR 200 YEARS. MORTREPT THE TREE MORTALITY REPORT WILL BE WRITTEN WHEN A FIRE OCCURS. REPORTING WILL BEGIN IN DATE/CYCLE 1 AND WILL CONTINUE FOR 200 YEARS. FUELREPT THE FUEL CONSUMPTION AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS REPORT WILL BE WRITTEN WHEN A FIRE OCCURS. REPORTING WILL BEGIN IN DATE/CYCLE 1 AND WILL CONTINUE FOR 200 YEARS. SNAGSUM SNAG SUMMARY REPORT REQUESTED