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Upland Free Water: Past, Present and Future in Grand Staircase-Escalante NM?Upland Free Water: Past, Present and Future in Grand Staircase-Escalante NM?
Jan HartDavid Mattson
Brandon HoltonMark Miller
USGS Southwest Biological Science Center Colorado Plateau Research Station
Total precipitation The
Clim
ate
Sour
ce
THE SEMI-ARID CORE
Mean Annual ppt150-600 mm
(Elevation 1200-2600 m)
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
2130 years of reconstructed precipitation in NW New Mexico
1700
Re-occuring and Extended Severe Drought
1750
200 1 200 400 600 800 1000
Year
1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
1780 1850 1900 1950 2000
1950s
Figure by MIT OCW.
168 natural springs (blue)
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
168 natural springs (blue)12 wildlife-related developments (yellow)667 livestock-related developments (green)
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
Flagstaff
Natural upland waters
Flagstaff
Artificial upland waters
Spatial Availability
FlagstaffFlagstaff
Spatial Availability
FlagstaffFlagstaff
Spatial Availability
Temporal Availability
Wup
atki
NM
Climate
Geomorphology
Geology
Free water
Vegetation
Humanland use Wildlife
Soils
Soil and VegetationSoil and VegetationB
road
scal
epa
ttern
s
1.5 km
Soil and VegetationSoil and VegetationFi
nesc
ale
patte
rns
100 m
Interception of 2% to 33% of run-offPotential effects on downstream vegetation
HYDROLOGYHYDROLOGY
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
RoadsRoads and maintenanceand maintenance
ARTIFICIAL
WildlifeWildlife
ARTIFICIAL
WildlifeWildlife
Nea
r Wup
atki
Nat
iona
l Mon
umen
t
Wildlife, livestock & vegetationWildlife, livestock & vegetation
Nea
r Wup
atki
Nat
iona
l Mon
umen
t
Wildlife, livestock & vegetationWildlife, livestock & vegetation
Probable EffectsSpatially & temporally more uniform free water.
Complex interactions among wildlife & livestock.
Broadscale effects on species richness,invasives, and palatable species.
Finer-scale effects on soil structure, soil nutrients, and vegetation cover.
Changes in hydrologic regimes & downstream vegetation.
Census of beef cattle
U.S
. Cen
sus
of A
gric
ultu
re
THE FORECAST
THE FORECAST
1900
Observations
-0.3
0.0
Ano
mal
ies
from
189
0-19
19 (o
C)
0.3
0.6
0.9
1920 1940Year
1960 1980 2000
(Natural) volcano + solar(Anthropogenic + Natural) volcano + solar + greenhouse gas + sulfate + ozone
Figure by MIT OCW.
THE FORECAST
Warming…
and probabledrying.
Leung et al. (2004)
1.4
5.35.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.4
Temperature Change December-FebruaryTemperature Change June-August
Precipitation Change (mm/day) June August Precipitation Change (mm/day) December-February
Figure by MIT OCW.
RegionalClimaticContext
Particularlysensitive toglobal change(Ehleringer et al. 1999)
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
GOSP
TICA
FOBU
COLM
CANYGLCA
RABRGLCA
CARE
BLCA
CURE
107
81
87
277 61172
YUHO
AZRU
CHCUBAND
PETR
ELMA
ELMO
PEFO
0 50 100 200Km
SUCR
WUPA
WACA
GRCA
SAPU
N
CACHNAVA
HUTR
MEVE91187
106CEBRBRG
77150 104
139150
73146
194
HOVE
94
103202
200
168
119
156
85153
109101274
125
183
161
180122
82
113188
143
114156
157335190
PISP
30187
96185
147488
Northern ColoradoPlateau Network
DINO
Green River
ARCH
96187
ColoradoRiver
79136
99150
559194
52111
149304
116214
197344
195231
145122
113107
NABR
201118
Southern ColoradoPlateau Network
Interstate Highway
Monsoon Northern Boundary
Mean June to September Precipitation (mm)
Mean October to May Annual Precipitation
Symbol size scaled to indicate Mean Annual Precipitation
Network Boundary
State Boundary
River
103
122
20084
Winter ppt
Summer ppt
Winter ppt
Summer ppt
Monsoonboundary
Figure by MIT OCW.
Many questions…
● How will changing human land uses affect free water availability?
● How will climate change affect free water availability?
● How will these changes affect plant and wildlife communities?
● How will all of this vary with geology and geomorphology?
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
Many questions…
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
● How have soils and productivity been affected?
● How has hydrology been affected?
● How have wildlife been affected?
● How to optimize relative to costs, benefits?
More fundamentally● Explain and predict availability of free water
● Explain and predict effects on biotic communities
● Explain and predict effects on the physical (soil,water) system
HolisticWhole water system
Forwarding lookingRather than reactionary & retrospective
Integrated & multi-disciplinary
CORE RESEARCH CHALLENGES
HydrologistsGeologists/geomorphologistsSpecialists in remote sensingBiologists
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
● How to integrate stakeholdervalues & cultural traditions?
A Helpful Role for Science?
Contribute to helping people find COMMON GROUND…
by helping stakeholders build a SHARED VISION of the world (i.e., a “single text” map)…
that everyone BELIEVES.
A Helpful Role for Science?Participate in/create venues that are…
Respectful & Fair
Participatory
Share responsibility & control
Focus on finding common ground
Grand-Staircase Escalante National Monument
Grand Staircase-Escalante NM
Established by Presidential Proclamation, September 18, 1996 –
“... a place where one can see how nature shapes human endeavors in the American
West, where distance and aridity have been pitted against our dreams and courage.”