Updating fossil fuels production and CO2 emissions graphs · 5 U 800-comparison China and India Coal production are compared as population and access to electricity China coal production

1

China coal cumulative production & reserves

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

reserves BGR +CP

reserves N.Aden

reserves WEC

reserves BP

reserves BGR

U = 200 Gt

U = 150 Gt

cum production

300 200 100

0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

year 2020 2040 2060 2080

Jean Laherrere June 2017

Jean Laherrere 18 June 2017

Updating fossil fuels production and CO2 emissions graphs Using the 2017 BP statistical review data fitted to past data, the new graphs are quite different from previous ones because the peaking of world coal production, in particular in China

-China coal production Because the pollution due to particles (and not to CO2) the Chinese coal production has peaked in 2014 at 4 Gt per year Last year my ultimate was 200 Gt, now I prefer 150 Gt BGR reserves (in green) decline in 2016 when BP reserves (in red) increase sharply! WEC reserves were very high in 1920 declining down to 1990 and increasing again in 2004

All these reserves estimates vary but added to the cumulative production an ultimate of 200 Gt looks better than 150 Gt. The linear extrapolation of the coal production for the period 2011-2016 trends towards 120 Gt

Gt

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My coal production forecast is modeled with both ultimates of 150 Gt and 200 Gt. My production forecast for 2025 is between 2.6 and 3.2 Gt when IEA/WEO 2016 NP is 3.8 Gt and EIA/IEO 2016 is 4.2 (EIA/IEAO 2013 was 4.7 Gt).

The large differences in data show clearly that China coal production is hard to forecast but China needs coal for electricity despite their efforts on sun and wind and nuclear.

Hubbert linearization of China coal production 1900-2016

7

6

aP/CP %

2011-2016

5

4

3

2

1

0 0 2

5 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250

Jean Laherrere June 2017 cumulative production Gt

China coal production for U = 150 & 200 Gt, WEO NP & IEO 5,5

5

4,5

4

3,5

EIA/IEO2013

EIA/IEO2016

WEO 2016 NP Gt

U=200 Gt

U=150 Gt

past

3

2,5

2

1,5

1

0,5

0 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

year 2025 2050 2075 2100


annu

al p

rodu

ctio

n G

t aP

/CP%

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-India coal production India needs more than China electricity from coal because in 2015 about 250 M Indians have no access to electricity when none in China. World Bank provides the percentage of access to electricity from 1990 to 2014: only 85 % has access in 2014 for the world (81% in India) with 1186 M with no access Some country as Mali (27%) have a low access, but it is surprising to see Afghanistan increasing from 0% in 2000 to 90% in 2014!

China coal production & consumption

2000

1800

1600

prod BP 2017

prod EIA 2015

prod EIA 2012 1400

prod 2010 1200

conx BP 2017

1000 cons 2010

800

600

400

200

0 1950 1960 1970 1980

year

1990 2000 2010 2020

source Salvador, BP, EIA Jean Laherrere June 2017

access to electricity: percentage from World Bank

100 China

90 Algeria

80 Egypt

70 Tunisia Pakistan

60 Indonesia

50 Morocco

40 Afghanistan

30 World

20 India Nigeria

10 Mali

0 1990


1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

year

prod

uctio

n &

con

sum

ptio

n M

toe

perc

enta

ge

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India coal reserves have varied sharply from BRG or WEC sources and the ultimate is estimated between 80 and 100 Gt

Linear extrapolation of coal production for the period 2010-2016 is about 80 Gt IEA/WEO NP forecasts for 2040 were 1 Gt for WEO 2014 and 1.5 Gt for WEO 2016: quite a change8

India coal cumulative production & reserves

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 1850

reserves WEC+CP

reserves BGR +CP

U = 100 Gt

U = 80 Gt

cum prod Gt

1900 1950 2000 2050

year

2100 2150 2200 Jean Laherrere June 2017

India coal production Hubbert linearization 1815-2016 6

5

aP/CP%

2010-2016

4

3

2

1

0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Jean Laherrere June 2017 cumulative coal production Gt

aP/C

P %

cu

mul

ativ

e pro

duct

ion

Gt

5

-comparison China and India Coal production are compared as population and access to electricity China coal production has peaked in 2014 at 4 Gt/a, when India will peak around 2050 at 1.4 Gt/a

India coal annual production & forecast

1600 1500 1400

1300 1200 1100 1000

900 800

700 600 500 400 300

200 100

0 1850

WEO2016 NP

WEO2014 NP U = 100 Gt U = 80 Gt

past Mt

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

Jean Laherrere June 2017 year

China & India coal production & population 1950-2150 4,0 2,0

1,8 3,5

1,6

3,0

1,4 2,5

1,2

2,0 1,0

1,5

1,0

China U=150 Gt

China prod Gt

India U = 100 Gt

India prod Gt

China pop UN2015

India pop UN2015

China access elect G

India access elect G

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,5 0,2

0,0 1925 195

0 1975

2000

2025

2050 2075 2100

2125

0,0 2150

Jean Laherrere Dec 2015 year

coal

pro

duct

ion

Gt

annu

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rodu

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n M

t

popu

alat

ion

G U

N 2

015

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The production per capita was about 3 t for China (ultimate in 2014 and will be only 0.8 t around 2050

Adding China and India for coal production and population shows that coal peak is far from population peak

China & India coal production per capita 1950-2100 3,0

China prod/cap t

2,5 India prod/cap t

2,0 population forecasts UN 2015 ultimate coal Gt: China 150 India 100

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0 1950 1975 2000 2025

year 2050 2075 2100


coal

pro

duct

ion

par c

apita

t

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-World coal production The coal ratio toe/t varies with time from 0.47 to 0.6 on the period 1850-2016

On the coal, cumulative production toe/t varies from 0.51 (2016) to 0.59 (1910)

China + India coal production & population 1950-2150 5,0 3,5 4,5

3,0 4,0

3,5 2,5

3,0 2,0

2,5 China+India coal

1,5 2,0 China+India coal

China+India pop

1,5 1,0

1,0

0,5 0,5 0,0

1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 0,0

2150


coal

pro

duct

ion

Gt

popu

alat

ion

G U

N 2

015

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In 2016, I did model coal production with an ultimate of 650 Gtoe with a peak in 2014 as around 2060. It is interesting to see that Exxon 2016 forecasts a coal peak around 2025 when IEA/WEO 2015 does not see peaking before

world coal cumulative production in t & toe

400 0,59

350 Gtoe

Gt

toe/t

0,58

300 0,57

250 0,56

200 0,55

150 0,54

100 0,53

50 0,52

0 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925

year

0,51 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050


4,5

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

coal production wit a perak in 2014 as inworld coal annual production & forecast 5 cycles for an ultimate of 650 Gtoe & Exxon-Mobil & IEA

H1

H2

H3

H4

H5

all 5 cycles

BP2015

WEO 2015

WEO 2014

WEO 2013 NP

WEO 2012

Exxon 2014

Exxon 2016 past

China BP 2015

1,0

0,5

0,0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

year 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150

Jean Laherrere 2016

cum

ulat

ive p

rodu

ctio

n G

t & G

toe

annu

al p

rodu

ctio

n G

toe

toe/

t

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Today I assume that coal production will soon soften their decline and will not peak again to please the green community and the World Bank!

The linear extrapolation of past production (% annual/cumulative = Hubbert linearization) does not provide any good estimate

world coal production & forecast for U= 650 Gtoe 5,0 7

4,5 3,5

Rutledge Gtoe

Enerdata Gtoe

EIA Gtoe

BP Gtoe

U = 650 Gtoe

Reichl et al Gtce

6,3

4,0 5,6

4,9

3,0 4,2

2,5 3,5

2,0 2,8

1,5 2,1

1,0 1,4

0,5 0,7

0,0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

year 2100 2150 2200

0 2250


world coal production Hubbert linearization 1850-2016 4,0

3,5 3,0

aP/CP%

1930-2002

2002-2011

2011-2016 2,5

2,0

1,5 BRG 2015 reserves + cum prod = 676 Gtoe

1,0

0,5

0,0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Jean Laherrere June 2017 cumulative production Gtoe

Gto

e (=

42

EJ)

aP

/CP

%

Gtc

e

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The cumulative coal production plus remaining reserves from BP, BGR and WEC shows a wild range between 550 Gtoe and 700 Gtoe. An ultimate of 650 Gtoe looks in line with those estimates.

-Fossil Fuels production and CO2 emissions The new coal forecast is shown in this updated graph for fossil fuels in Gtoe and EJ

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This FF production is converted into CO2 emissions in tCO2/toe with for coal 4.1, oil 3.1 and for NG 2.4 giving a different display

This FF CO2 emissions is compared to the 4 IPCC RCP scenarios (ECP = extended beyond 2100 to 2500) as the last forecasts from IEA, WEC and ExxonMobil

world fossil fuels production & forecasts 13 544

12 coal 502

11 U=650 Gtoe 461

10 oil 419

9 U= 390 Gtoe 377

8 natural gas 335

7 U= 300 Gtoe 293

6 FF Gtoe 251

5 U= 1350 Gtoe 209

4 EJ 167

3 126

2 84

1 42

0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

0 2200


40

world fossil fuels CO2 emissions & production in toe coal 4.1 tCO2/toe

U=650 Gtoe

oil 3.1 tCO2/toe

U= 390 Gtoe

NG 2.4 tCO2/toe

U= 330 Gtoe

FF EIA

CO2 BP2017

U= 1370 Gtoe

FF Gtoe

12,0

35 10,5

30 9,0

25 7,5

20 6,0

15 4,5

10 3,0

5 1,5

0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

0,0 2200


GtC

O2

Gto

e

EJ

FF p

rodu

ctio

n G

toe

12

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

CO2 emissions from fossil fuels with 4 IPCC RCP/ECP & other forecasts 30

RCP8.5 FF 27

RCP6 FF

RCP4.5 FF 25

RCP2.6 FF 22

U= 1370 Gtoe 19 WEO2015 NP

16 EXXON2015

14 EXXON2017

CO2 BP2017 11

FF IPCC 8

FF JHL 5

10 3

0 0

-10 -3 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500

Jean Laherrere June 2017 year ExxonMobil 2017 outlook for energy sees peak in CO2 emissions around 2035

WEC (World Energy Council) energy resources were carried out since 1933 and WEC 2016 was the 24th WEC 2016 forecast is based on three scenarios = Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/World-Energy- Scenarios-2016_Full-Report.pdf The peak of CO2 emissions is at the most 37 GtC02 in 2040

GtC

O2

GtC

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It is obvious from all these forecasts by energy agencies that the two IPCC scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 are unrealistic: there were designed by economists as storylines without any check with energy experts. There are also political views being approved by the 195 countries members of the IPCC Many claims that the temperature in 2100 could reach over 4°C based on RCP8.5, but RCP8.5 will never be reached and corresponds to a storyline from the mind of an incompetent thinker.

It is ever worse with the claim of over 9°C in 2300 with RCP8.5

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But the claim that 60 to 80% of the fossils fuels should be kept in the ground in order to keep the temperature below 2°C is based on wrong reserves data. The present real fossil fuels reserves correspond about RCP6 and IPCC forecast for RCP is about 2°C in 2100. It is then wrong to claim that a part of the fossils fuels should not be produced. I want to remind that the proven oil reserves are overestimated being political or financial and that the real technical reserves are well below, about 50 % of the so-called proved reserves

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Most people believe that the IPCC scenarios are about the same probability: they are not they are storylines as written by their designer Dr Nakicenovic

and as stated by the last IPCC report AR5 11-11: No probabilities or likelihoods have been attached to the alternative RCP scenarios (as it was the case for SRES scenarios). Each of them should be considered plausible, as no study has questioned their technical feasibility

WEO 2016 t3.5 end 2015 -conv. crude recoverable resources 2201 Gb -proved reserves 1703 Gb

technical = backdated 2P excl XH technical 2P SciAm 1998

current 1P reserves EIA/OGJ including tarsands +200 Gb Venezuela +175 Gb Canada

first production Orinoco 1979 Athabasca 1967

-omission of probable -incorrect aggregation

excluding 215 Gb Orinoco from 1936 to 1939

Ghawar OPEC fight for quotas +300 Gb = speculative resources al-Husseini 1700 fields

missing compared to 2011

OGJ proved at end 2016 on 5 Dec 2016 issue

1646 Gb

0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Jean Laherrere Dec 2016 year Sources: IHS, USDOE, CAPP, API, OGJ

World remaining oil reserves from political/financial and technical sources

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

rem

aini

ng re

serv

es G

b

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The famous 2006 Stern report on the economics of climate change (loosing 5% of GDP per year and reaching 560 ppm in 2035 is nothing is done) is completely wrong, being based on equal probability of every scenario and on unrealistic amount of oceanic methane hydrates (more than oil, NG and coal together! impossible because less surface and sedimentary thickness).

The AR5 report sees RCO scenarios followed by ECP scenarios

IPCC SRREN 2011 report displays the 164 different scenarios for CO2 emissions with different colors. Comparing to the forecasts by energy experts it is obvious that most scenarios (in particular the dark ones called baselines) are completely unrealistic, pure wishful thinking, nothing scientific! IPCC omits to add official energy agencies forecasts! Their comparison should hurt these views https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srren/SRREN_Full_Report.pdf page 802

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In 2015 Bernard Durand presented in Paris scientific conference for the preparation of COP21 this paper showing that the IPCC RCP scenarios are wrong, except RCP6. But the COP21 is not scientific it is political. -Durand B. & Laherrere J.H. 2015 « Fossil Fuels Ultimate Recovery Appraisal, Clue to Climate Change Modelling » International Scientific Conference 7-10 juin Paris http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/files/BD_Fossils_Fuels_Ultimate_2015.pdf https://aspofrance.org/2015/12/11/fossil-fuel-ultimate-recovery-appraisal-clue-to-climate- change-modeling-december-2015-bernard-durand/

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-Fossil fuels production per capita FF production will peak around 2025, but before FF growth is less than population growth

20

world fossil fuels production & population 12 11 10

9

8

Gtoe

U= 1350 Gtoe

population UN 2015

medium 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

year 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100


world fossil fuels production per capita

1,6

1,4

1,2

1,0

0,8

0,6 FF per capita toe

0,4 forecast

0,2

0,0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

year 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100


FF production per capita has already peaked in 2014 at 1.5 toe and the decline will be fair, but less than the rise since 2002

In 2060 the FF production will be half the peak production of 2014! The nuclear and the renewable have to fill the decline. I doubt that renewable alone will be enough and energy storage has to improve greatly to fill the intermittence of sun and wind.

-Energy transition

annu

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n to

e an

nual

pro

duct

ion

Gto

e

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In October 2014, the European Union has agreed to the Energy Transition with a reduction of CO2 emissions from the 1990 level by 40% in 2030) and by 80-95 % in 2050 France has agreed (law of 17 August 2015) to reduce from 1990 their CO2 emissions by 40% in 2030 (and to grow up renewables at 32% of energy consumption) and 75% in 2050 (reduction by 50% of energy consumption)

The world CO2 emissions were 22.5 GtCO2 in 1990 and the forecasts in 2030 are 36 for ExxonMobil 2017, 35 for WEO 2015 NP

BP 2017 and Enerdata 2016 provides CO2 emissions per country The plot of CO2 emissions in log scale shows a continuous rise since 1965 for the world, but a sharp rise for India. European countries CO2 emissions decrease since the first oil shock.

CO2 emissions from fossil fuels with 4 IPCC RCP/ECP & other forecasts 50 14

40 20

RCP8.5 FF

RCP6 FF RCP4.5 FF

RCP2.6 FF

U= 1370 Gtoe

WEO2015 NP

EXXON2015 EXXON2017

CO2 BP2017

FF IPCC

FF JHL

11

30 8

5

10 3

0 0

-10 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950

year 1975 2000 2025

-3 2050


GtC

O2

GtC

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The same data plotted with 1990 = 100 The European Union CO2 emissions are today 80% compared to 1990 and the aim to reach 60% of 1990 in 2030 should easily achieved. But China after a sharp rise peaked in 2014 and India rise is unlikely to stop soon. For COP 21 the INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) China indicates that their CO2 emissions will peak before 2030: it is already done. India indicates reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33% from 2005 level, but without mentioning which GDP

CO2 emissions log scale from BP & Enerdata

100000

world China

US

Germany 10000

UK India

France

world Enerdata 1000

China Enerdata EU Enerdata

100 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


CO2 emissions 1990=100 from BP & Enerdata

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


400

350

300 250 200

150

China

India

world

US

France

Germany

UK

Europ U

aim Europ.U 100

50

0

MtC

O2

log

scal

e 19

90 =

100

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CO2 MtCO2

GDO current ruppee/5

tCO2/$2011

tCO2/current rupee

tCO2/crore2004

(current rupee, constant rupee or dollar) India CO2 emissions versus GDP

2500 10

2250 9

2000 8

1750 7

1500 6

1250 5

1000 4

750 3

500 2

250 1

0 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


The decline of CO2/GDP varies with the unit of GDP. But it is obvious that the growth of GDP is much larger than the growth of emissions: so, the CO2 emissions could continue to growth and the CO2 emissions per GDP will decline. India INDC does not oblige them to decrease the CO2 emissions! India needs more electricity to give like China access to all and coal is the best answer. India CO2 emissions per capita in 2015 is 1.6 tCO2 compared to 6.7 in China = 4 times more

emis

sion

s MtC

O2

emis

sion

s CO

2/G

DP

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India & China CO2 emissions per capita

7

6

China tCO2/cap

India tCO2/cap

China/india

5

4

3

2

1

0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


It is hard to accuse India to pollute with CO2 when comparing to China! -Conclusions The majority of the world is convinced that the IPCC energy scenarios are forecasts from energy data. No, they are storylines dreamed by economists before 2000. As these SRES scenarios were approved by the 195 IPCC members they cannot be modified, these 40 SRES were only converted from energy (Joule or toe) into 4 radiative forcing’s expressed in W/m2. The majority of the world believes that temperature can be forecasted using model, but it appears that past modeling as the three scenarios) made by J. Hansen in 1988 for 2015 were wrong. No one can prove that IPCC modeling is right because these models cannot model the main GHG which is the water vapor (60% when CO2 contributes only as 26% (Trenberth 1997- Dufresne 2011) and only by blue sky: as far as I know, there is no estimate of CO2 contribution when clouds.) No one can show past modeling fitting present data. It is obvious that the two extremes RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 are impossible, contrary to every reliable energy sources. Everyone quoting forecasts from these impossible scenarios shows that he confuses scientific data and religious claims.

tCO

2/ca

p &

Chi

na/in

dia

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IPCC means Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gathering 195 countries where most have no climate expert. The report “Summary for policy makers” is approved by politicians and does not reflect the bulk of scientific papers of the full report. IPCC was translated wrongly in French as “Groupe d'experts intergouvernementals sur l'évolution du climat” adding the presence of experts which was not in the English title. It is the same with the translation of “Sustainable development” (1987 Brundtland report) into French “développement durable” Confusing “durable” and “sustainable” hides something!

IPCC in their new report should rely on scenarios based on data from reliable agencies (IEA, WEC) and should estimate their probability (but without forgetting that only mean values can be arithmetically added = the arithmetic addition of proved reserves is wrong!) Bankers and financial people uses proved reserves (SEC rules), forgetting that they cannot be added (it is hard to find any notice of such wrong practice: as it is done by everyone it is ok!).

Oil companies relies on SPE proved plus probable (2P) reserves, which can be added( close to mean), but these 2P data are forbidden by the SEC rules. Every oil company listed on the US stock market follows the SEC rules in their annual report, but not when deciding to develop an expensive oil project (the Net Present Value is based on mean (2P) data and not on proved (1P) data).

CO2 emissions from fossil fuels with 4 IPCC RCP/ECP & other forecasts 50 14

40 20

RCP8.5 FF

RCP6 FF RCP4.5 FF

RCP2.6 FF

U= 1370 Gtoe

WEO2015 NP

EXXON2015 EXXON2017

CO2 BP2017

FF IPCC

FF JHL

11

30 8

5

10 3

0 0

-10 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950

year 1975 2000 2025

-3 2050


GtC

O2

GtC

Documents

Updating fossil fuels production and CO2 emissions graphs · 5 U 800-comparison China and India Coal production are compared as population and access to electricity China coal production