Update on TRAIN, inflation, and mitigating measures · (ppt) 1 Rice 1.0 2 Fish 0.8 3 Electricity, gas, and other fuels 0.6 4 Operation of personal transport equipment 0.6 5 Meat 0.5

Update on TRAIN, inflation, and mitigating measures

As of 12 November 2018

Contents

DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE 2

1. Inflation and TRAIN

2. Mitigating measures to help the poor and

vulnerable

3. Immediate reforms to reduce food prices

4. Trends in contribution to inflation

5. Statistical annex

Inflation and TRAIN


Inflation update

• In October 2018…

oYear-on-year (YOY) inflation reached 6.7 percent.

oMonth-on-month (MOM) inflation decelerated to

0.3 percent, from 0.8 percent in September.

• In the first ten months of 2018…

o Inflation averaged 5.1 percent.

oThis puts the inflation beyond the upper end of the

BSP’s target of 2 to 4 percent.

oOn the other hand, this is still slightly below the BSP

revised full-year inflation forecast of 5.2 percent.


Inflation update

2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Year-on-

year3.4 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.4 6.7 6.7

Month-on-

month0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3

Year-to-date 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.1

Source: PSA


Top 10 drivers of October 2018 inflation ranked by contribution to inflation


Rank Top contributors to inflation

Contribution

to year-on-

year inflation

(ppt)

1 Rice 1.0

2 Fish 0.8

3 Electricity, gas, and other fuels 0.6

4 Operation of personal transport equipment 0.6

5 Meat 0.5

6 Housing rentals 0.4

7 Vegetables 0.4

8 Catering services 0.4

9 Non-alcoholic beverages 0.4

10 Tobacco 0.3

Top 10 items with highest inflation rate in Oct 2018


Rank Commodity group

Price increase

(%) between

Oct 2017 and

Oct 2018

1 Tobacco 29.2

2 Operation of personal transport equipment 24.2

3 Vegetables 15.8

4 Fish 13.8

5 Non-alcoholic beverages 12.5

6 Recreational and cultural services 11.0

7 Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery 10.9

8 Rice 10.7

9 Electricity, gas, and other fuels 8.1

10 Postal services 8.0

Main causes of inflation1. External factors in last ten months

oUS sanction on Iran, among others, that led to higher world oil prices at 80.97 dollars per barrel in October.

o Increase in US interest rates and BOP deficit that led to peso depreciation to 53.98 pesos per dollar.

9/27/2016 DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE 8

Date USD per barrel PHP/USD

Jan 2017

TRAIN bill filed 53.37 49.74

May 2017

House passed TRAIN 49.91 49.86

Dec 2017

TRAIN law signed. 60.91 50.30

October 2018 80.97 53.98

Main causes of inflation

2. Tax reformoHigher taxes on oil, cigarettes, and sweetened

beverages.

oBut TRAIN contributed little to inflation.– Contribution to inflation is around 0.4 to 0.7 out of the 6.7

percent inflation in October.

– In other words, for every 100 pesos in additional spending, around 6 to 10 pesos is due to TRAIN.

– Of the 14.9 pesos per liter increase in diesel, only 2.8 pesos or 19 percent is due to TRAIN.

– Of the 12.2 pesos per liter increase in gasoline, only 3.0 pesos or 24 percent is due to TRAIN.




Increase in disposable income

Estimatedadditional amount

per month (PHP billion)

Personal income tax reduction 12.0Unconditional cash transfer (UCT) 2.0Wages from more jobs in infrastructure/1 15.0Free college tuition effect 3.5Total 32.5Note: 1/ 30 percent of the government infrastructure spending of PHP 50 billion is labor cost.

3. More money to the peopleoWe are giving 32.5 billion pesos per month in

additional income to the people.

oAround 90 percent is spent and this is inflationary.



Retail sales are still growing strong

Q1 sales

growth

(percent)

Q2 sales

growth

(percent)

Restaurants

McDonald's 40.6 33.5

Jollibee food corporation 18.8 19.5

Max's group 10.7 11.9

Stores and malls

Sta. Lucia land 25.3 8.2

Robinsons retail 12.6 13.5

711 25.8 20.2

Rockwell land 6.5 28.3

Star malls 12.9 8.9

Ayala land 18.8 49.7

Puregold price club 12.2 14.1

Megaworld 8.1 11.6

SM prime 11.1 16.1

SSI 7.8 13.5

Century properties 104.5 63.7

Sources: Bloomberg and company disclosures

Sales and profit growth of selected retailers (2018 Q1 and Q2)


4. Rice supplyoNFA did not buy enough palay during harvest

season.

oNFA imported to fill the gap but importation was delayed.

oYet, importation not enough due to quantitative restrictions.

oThese reflect underlying issues in rice policy.


The average self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) was around 90 percent from 2000 to 2016.


Note: Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) = production/total utilization

Source: Basic data from PSA

Filipinos typically pay much more for rice compared to other Asian countries.


20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PH

P e

qu

iva

len

t per

kg

Sources: Local rice market surveys by DOF and ADB staff.Note: Lines represent the range of retail rice prices.

Retail rice prices in local Asian markets, Aug to Sep 2018

The rice supply-demand gap was not filled-up by the minimum access volume.


2000-2016 average:

- Supply-demand gap =1,126 TMT

- MAV=385 TMT

Sources: Basic data from PSA and WTO

Key urgent reform: rice tariffication

• Key provisionso NFA mandate limited to emergency buffer stocking.o Convert quantitative restriction and minimum access volume

into tariffs to allow freer importation of rice.o Remove import licensing.o Use tariff revenue to improve productivity of agriculture.

• Potential impacto Inflation in 2018 can fall by 0.2 percentage points (ppt) (from

5.1 percent from January to October of 2018 to 4.9 percent for the whole year).

o Inflation in 2019 can be 0.6 ppt lower.o Rice price can fall between 2 to 7 pesos per kilo.o More competitive manufacturing as pressures to increase

minimum wages fall.



5. Better tobacco compliance

oOf the 29.4 percent inflation of tobacco products: – One-fifth is due to TRAIN.

– Four-fifths is due to better tax compliance.

oMighty under Japan Tobacco is paying higher taxesfrom around 1.5 billion per month to around 3.5billion per month.

oThis translates to higher cigarette prices of around60-80 pesos per pack or around 5-6 pesos per stickfrom as low as 3 pesos per stick last year.


Main drivers of October2018 inflation based on contribution

1. In October 2018, rice remains the top driver ofinflation. Rice prices remain elevated due to recentweather disturbances and inadequate imported rice.o In mid-October, the average retail price of regular-milled rice

increased to PHP 45.72/kg. This was 20 percent higher than theprevailing prices in October of last year. Over the short-term, theNational Food Authority (NFA) has approved the importation of1 million MT of rice in 2019 and the entry of an additional750,000 MT of rice this year. Moreover, the Department ofAgriculture (DA) has set suggested retail prices (SRPs) for rice inOctober to help temper rice prices in the coming months.

o The longer-term and more sustainable solution, however, is theurgent passage of the Rice Tariffication Bill, which was certifiedas urgent by President Duterte and is now up for third reading inthe Senate, after its passage in the House, upon resumption ofsession in November.



2. Fish prices continue to remain elevateddue to lower supply brought about by theeffects of climate change, stricter fishingrules, and recent typhoons.

o Intensified implementation of PresidentialAdministrative Order No. 13 allows the issuance ofcertificates of necessity by the DA to bring in fishimports into regions with low supply. This is inaddition to the importation of 17,000 MT of roundscad (galunggong) in August.



3. The contribution of electricity, gas, and other fuels toinflation decreased due to a roll back of 10 centavos inMeralco’s electricity rates. This commodity group remainselevated due to the culmination of previous rate increases andincreases in household fuels.

o For consumers in Metro Manila and neighboring areas, the slightly lowerelectricity rates are due to a decrease in the generation charge andlower demand for power in Luzon. Consumers faced an average rate ofPHP 9.98/kwh in October, which is slightly lower than the PHP 10.07/kwhin October. This implies a decrease of PHP 20 to 21 in the total bill for ahousehold which consumes an average of 200 kwh/month. Despite thedecrease, electricity is still a top contributor to inflation since multiplerate increases happened before October this year, as well as in 2017.Elevated electricity prices thus reflect cumulative rate increases sinceSeptember 2017 (Table 6).

o Prices of household fuels also increased. For instance, the price of LPGwent up by around PHP 95 per 11 kg tank, and kerosene by around PHP11 per liter, both since the start of the year. Much like gas and diesel,these fuels are both by-products of crude. This means that priceincreases were primarily driven by the increase in crude oil prices andpeso depreciation, as LPG and kerosene are only subject to PHP 1.12 perkg and PHP 3.36 per liter of excise taxes and VAT, respectively, underTRAIN.



Electricity, gas, and other fuels


Rate increases

since August 2017

PHP per kwh Change in

the rate (PHP)

Electricity

(Meralco)

Aug-17 8.38

Sep-17 9.25 0.86

Oct-17 9.28 0.03

Nov-17 9.63 0.34

Dec-17 9.25 -0.38

Total 2017 0.86

Jan-18 8.72 -0.53

Feb-18 9.47 0.75

Mar-18 10.32 0.85

Apr-18 10.55 0.23

May-18 10.00 -0.54

Jun-18 9.88 -0.13

Jul-18 10.19 0.31

Aug-18 10.22 0.03

Total 2018 0.97

Cumulative increase 1.83

Source: Meralco

Rate increases

since September 2017

PHP per kwh Change in

the rate (PHP)Electricity

(Meralco)

Aug-17 8.38Sep-17 9.25 0.86Oct-17 9.28 0.03Nov-17 9.63 0.34Dec-17 9.25 -0.38

Total 2017 0.86 (55%)Jan-18 8.72 -0.53Feb-18 9.47 0.75Mar-18 10.32 0.85Apr-18 10.55 0.23May-18 10.00 -0.54Jun-18 9.88 -0.13Jul-18 10.19 0.31

Aug-18 10.22 0.03Sep-18 10.07 -0.15Oct-18 9.97 -0.10

Total 2018 0.72 (46%)Cumulative increase 1.57

Source: Meralco


4. Private vehicle users faced higher pump prices ofdiesel and gasoline, which cost PHP 14.9 and 12.2per liter more, respectively, compared to October oflast year.

oThe bulk of the price increases, PHP 12.1 for diesel and PHP9.2 for gasoline, is due to the higher import price of crude(around USD 81.0 per barrel) and peso depreciation (PHP54.0 to a USD).

oOf the total price increases per liter, only PHP 2.80 fordiesel and PHP 2.97 for gasoline are due to TRAIN (exciseand VAT included).

oThis means that TRAIN accounts for around 19 and 24percent of the retail price increases, respectively, of dieseland gasoline.



5. Inflation of meat has also deceleratedreflecting the stabilization in wholesale andfarmgate prices from September andrecovery from recent weather disturbances.

oHowever, with the increasing consumer demand formeat, prices still remain elevated. We can expectmeat prices to decrease in the coming months asadditional supply meets demand.



6. The increase in housing rentals reflects the

increasing value of properties nowadays as

the economy grows.

o Increasing demand for residential units from local

professionals and foreign investors across central

business districts continue to drive up prices.



7. Prices of vegetables to decelerated in

October. The negative MOM inflation of

vegetable prices in October suggests price

normalization from effect of recent weather

disturbances.

oMoreover, with the recent end of the typhoon

season, we can expect prices of vegetables to

further stabilize in the coming months.



8. Lower but still elevated inflation in the non-essential catering services, apart from the effectof higher raw food prices, implies that morepeople are eating out, as the additional takehome pay of taxpayers, together with wagesfrom more employment opportunities, arefinding its way into restaurants and other retail.Preliminary second quarter data from leadingfast food restaurants and retailers showsrevenues continue to grow by double digits.



9. Prices of non-alcoholic drinks, includingsweetened beverages, increased by 12.0percent.

oEven with rising sugar prices, this is below theexpected increase of 15 percent, possibly due toprice absorption by firms as profits fell in somebeverage corporations, despite an increase in sales.



10. Tobacco prices have increased due to higherexcise tax and better tax administration. TRAINcontributed 1.3 pesos per pack from January toJune 2018 and 3.8 pesos per pack starting July2018.

o The excise tax has increased to PHP 35 per pack startingthe second half of 2018, from PHP 32.5 in the first half.This, however, only explains a small part of the priceincrease.

o Much of the increase is due to Mighty Corporation,currently under the management of Japan TobaccoInternational (JTI), now paying the right taxes, andconsequently passing this on to consumers. In part dueto higher market prices, particularly in the moreaffordable variants, other tobacco manufacturers likewiseincreased their prices, based on market surveys.


Suspending TRAIN means…

1. Inflation in October would be around 6.0 to 6.3 percent

instead of 6.7 percent—but this is not much lower.

2. 99 percent of workers will lose some 12 billion monthly in

additional take home pay.

3. Almost 90 billion pesos in tax revenues will not be

generated.

4. 27 billion pesos less spending in social services.

5. 63 billion pesos less spending in infrastructure.

6. Loss of 93,195 jobs in infrastructure. o This assumes 500 peso daily wage, 30 percent more in benefits, and 312 days of work per year.


Mitigating measures:

We will help the poor cope with higher prices regardless of the cause.






Immediate reforms to reduce food prices


Summary and short-term solutions

• In summary, food is the main driver of inflation in 2018, especially in recent months.

• The Department of Agriculture (DA) is key in bringing down food prices.

• Administrative Order 13 and Memorandum Circulars 26, 27, and 28 give DA the power to increase food supply and bring down food prices.

• Quick enactment of the Rice Tariffication Law is needed.

• DSWD and DOTR need to fast-track distribution of cash transfers and fuel cash cards.


● Removal of non-tariff barriers and streamlining of administrative

procedures

● Additional rice importation

● Importation of fishery products

● Expedite unloading of agricultural imports

● Other remedial measures to improve logistics, transport, distribution,

and storage of agricultural products

● Creation of a surveillance team

Administrative Order No. 13 s. 2018Removing non-tariff barriers and streamlining administrative

procedures on the importation of agricultural products

42DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE

Medium-term solutions

• Increase agricultural productivity by:

oIndividualizing the agrarian reform collective titles to improve property rights and incentivize farm production.

oImproving efficiency by reallocating the budget from favoring certain crops (e.g., rice) and production inputs into more broad-based farm infrastructure, R&D, and support service.


Trends in contribution to inflation


3.4

3.9

4.34.5 4.6

5.2

5.7

6.46.7 6.7

5.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct YTD

Perc

ent

Year-on-year inflation rates in 2018

Source: PSA

Inflation has been rising in 2018, but has stabilized at 6.7 percent in

October…


(Jan to Oct average)

Food items have overtaken non-food items as the main driver of inflation in 2018.


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oin

ts

Contribution to inflation of food and non-food items

Food Non-food

Source: PSA

In Oct 2018, the top 10 contributors to inflation are mainly raw food items.


1.0

0.8

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1

Breakdown of the top 10 contributors to inflation, Oct 2018

Source: PSA

Rice

Fish

Vegetables

Meat

Elec., gas, fuels

Personal transp.

Catering

Housing rentals

Non-alc. bev.

Tobacco

2.7 percentage

points

…With rice contribution to inflation growing by 10 times.


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oin

tsContribution to inflation of rice

Source: PSA

Rice tariffication and food policy reform are needed to address repeated rice supply problems.


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

YTD

Pe

rce

nt

Historical rice inflation rate

Source: PSANote: Rice nflation rates from 1995 to 2012 are based on the 2006 series, while rates from 2013 to 2018 are based on the latest 2012 series.

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8 YT

D

Historical rice inflation rate

Source: PSA

Note: Rice inflation rates from 1995 to 2012 are based on the 2006 series, while rates from 2013 and 2018 are based on the latest 2012 series.

Fish contribution to inflation has been growing since 2017.


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

s

Contribution to inflation of fish

Source: PSA

High vegetable contribution to inflation is largely due to weather.


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

Nov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

s

Contribution to inflation of vegetable

Source: PSA

High meat contribution to inflation reflects pricing mismatch.


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

Nov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

s

Contribution to inflation of meat

Source: PSA

Non-food contributing to inflation is slowing down.


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

en

tag

e p

oin

ts

Contribution to inflation of non-food items

Source: PSA

Electricity, gas, and other fuel contribution to inflation has been falling in recent months.


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oin

ts

Contribution to inflation of elec., gas, fuels

Source: PSA

Personal transport contribution to inflation has been stabilizing in recent months.


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

s

Contribution to inflation of personal transport

Source: PSA

Catering contribution to inflation has been stabilizing...


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oin

ts

Contribution to inflation of catering

Source: PSA

…So has the contribution to inflation of housing rentals.


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oin

ts

Contribution to inflation of housing

Source: PSA

Tobacco inflation is due to better tax compliance.


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge p

oin

ts

Contribution to inflation of tobacco

Source: PSA

Non-alcoholic beverage inflation is due to TRAIN health measures.


-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

2017 2018

Per

cen

tage

po

ints

Contribution to inflation of non-alc. bev.

Source: PSA

Statistical annex: Inflation rates for selected

commodity groups and region


October 2018 overall inflation


4.4 5.2

6.1 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9

7.6 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.6 9.0

9.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

YOY

infl

atio

n ra

te, i

n p

erce

nt

Overall

October 2018 food inflation


6.7 7.2

8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.4

10.8 11.3

11.7

13.4 13.8 13.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

YOY

infl

atio

n ra

te, i

n p

erce

nt

Food

October 2018 non-food inflation


1.6

2.3

3.5 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4

4.8 5.4

5.8 6.0 6.0

7.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

YOY

infl

atio

n ra

te, i

n p

erce

nt

Non-food

October 2018 rice inflation


4.7

7.6 7.6 7.6 8.2

9.8 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.3 11.4 11.7

12.7

14.7 15.3

16.6 18.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

YOY

infl

atio

n ra

te, i

n p

erce

nt

Rice

October 2018 vegetables inflation


3.0 3.3 5.5

6.9 7.0 7.9 9.6 10.4 10.8

15.8 17.4 17.8

20.5 21.8

24.5

28.3

35.2

42.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

YOY

infl

atio

n ra

te, i

n p

erce

nt

Vegetables

October 2018 meat inflation


4.9 5.1

6.2 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.77.2

7.9 8.1 8.49.3 9.5

9.9 10.210.6

13.4

4

6

8

10

12

14

YOY

infl

atio

n r

ate,

in p

erce

nt

Meat

October 2018 fish inflation


6.8

10.0 10.2 10.5 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.4 13.6 14.3 14.6 14.716.1 16.4

18.719.7 20.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

YOY

infl

atio

n r

ate,

in p

erce

nt

Fish

YOY and MOM inflation rates of all items


0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.91.3 1.3 1.3

1.7 1.82.1 2.2

2.53.1 3.1 3.2

2.92.5 2.4 2.6

3 3.1 3 2.93.4

3.84.3 4.5 4.6

5.25.7

6.46.7 6.7

0.1-0.2 0

0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.20.6 0.4 0.4 0.4

00.4

-0.1 0 0.1 0.20.6

0.3 0.4 0.30.9 0.7 0.5 0.5

00.6 0.5

0.90.5 0.3

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Per

cen

t (%

)

Inflation rates of all items

YOY, left MOM, left

Source: PSA


YOY and MOM inflation rates of food

0.8 0.9 0.9 0.81.5

2.11.7 1.6

2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.73.2 3.1

3.63.1 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.1

3.6

4.6 4.8

5.7 5.5 5.5 5.8

6.8

8.2

9.69.2

0.4

-0.4-0.50

0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.40.9

0.2 0.5 0.2

-0.6

0.40

0.40 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7

1.5

0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1

0.7 11.6 1.9

0.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Per

cen

tage

po

ints

(pp

t)

Per

cen

t (%

)

Inflation rates of food

Contribution to inflation, right YOY, left MOM, left

Source: PSA


YOY and MOM inflation rates of rice

-2.4-1.8 -1.4 -1 -0.9 -0.6

0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.51 0.9 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1 1 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5

2.83.6

4.3 4.3 4.7 5

7

10.410.7

-0.20.1 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0 -0.3-0.1 0.3 0 -0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0 0.3 0.5

1.30.8 0.7

0.10.6 0.6

2.1

3.2

0.2

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Per

cen

tage

po

ints

(pp

t)

Per

cen

t (%

)

Inflation rates of rice


Source: PSA


YOY and MOM inflation rates of meat

0.5 0.6 0.61.2

1.9 2.11.6

1.2 1.2 1.4 1.41.7 1.7

2.3

3.3

4.44.9

5.4 5.24.6

4.1

55.7

6.2 6.36.6

6.1

5 4.8 5

5.8

7.6

8.4

7.4

0.2 0-0.3

0.10.6

0.2 0.4-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2

0.6 0.71.2 1.1

0.60.2

-0.6 -0.5

1 0.9 0.80.3

0.90.3 0.2

0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1

0.2 0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Per

cen

tage

po

ints

(pp

t)

Per

cen

t (%

)

Inflation rates of meat


Source: PSA


YOY and MOMinflation rates of fish

0.70 0

-2.1

-0.6

0.6-0.3

0.4 0.51.1

1.92.5

4.2

5.85

7.8 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.9

9.48.6 8.3

9.8

12.311.2

12.912.3

11.411.211.412.4

13.4

1.1

-0.6 -0.7-1.2

-0.30.6

00.6

-0.5

0.91.7

1.1

2.8

0.9

-1.5

1.4

-0.40.7

-0.10.8 0.8

0.2

1.4

2.6

5.1

-0.2 00.9

-1.3

0.5 0.1

1.7 1.7

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

Per

cen

tage

po

ints

(pp

t)

Per

cen

t (%

)

Inflation rates of fish


Source: PSA


YOY and MOMinflation rates of vegetables

1210.6 9.7 9.7

12.9

16.2

12.5

6.4

10.212

10.811.2

8.8

129.9

7.3

20.6

-0.9

3.45.2 5.5

0.4 0.73 2.7

6 6.8 78.6

16

19.221.0

15.8

2.7

-4.5-3.4

0.7

4.2 3.3

0.2-2

2.3 1.9

6.4

-0.60.4

-1.7

-5.2

-1.7 -1

1.8

-1.2

2.14.1

2.2 1.3-0.3

2.7

-2 -2.1-1 -0.7

3.45.6 4.9 5.7

-2.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Per

cen

tage

po

ints

(pp

t)

Per

cen

t (%

)

Inflation rates of vegetables


Source: PSA


YOY and MOM inflation rates of non food items

0.6

0.2 0.10.3 0.4

0.81.1 1.2

1.4 1.41.7

1.9

2.3

3 3.1 32.7

21.8

2.3

2.8 2.92.7

2.5 2.42.6

2.9 33.3

44.2 4.1 4.0 4.1

-0.2-0.10.2

0.5

0.10.4

0.2-0.1

0.1 0

0.4 0.50.2

0.60.3 0.4

-0.2 -0.30

0.40.6

0.10.3 0.2 0.2

0.70.5 0.5

0.1

0.50.2 0.3 0.4

0.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Per

cen

tage

po

ints

(pp

t)

Per

cen

t (%

)

Inflation rates of non food items


Source: PSA

Documents

Update on TRAIN, inflation, and mitigating measures · (ppt) 1 Rice 1.0 2 Fish 0.8 3 Electricity, gas, and other fuels 0.6 4 Operation of personal transport equipment 0.6 5 Meat 0.5