Update on Protests in the Middle East

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Update on Protests in the Middle East March 25, 2011 | 2211 GMT

Syrian protests have spread and grown in size, increasing the regime¶s vulnerability and

creating an opportunity for Iran to rebuild its leverage in Damascus. Splits within the

opposition have slowed any potential progress in Yemen¶s negotiations over an exit for President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Jordan¶s youth protest movement has declared its intent to

form a tent city in a main square while the Islamist opposition continues to resist enteringinto negotiations with the regime and is holding out for greater concessions. The state of

unrest in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain remains mostly unchanged from last Friday, but Gulf Cooperation Council forces are unlikely to leave Bahrain until both Riyadh and Manama

feel the threat of Iranian destabilization has passed.

Syria

Tens of thousands of demonstrators rallied around the central al-Omari mosque in thesouthwestern city of Daraa on March 25, the scene of Syria¶s largest and most violent

protests to date since regional unrest spread to the country. Army and police had reportedlypulled back from the city center after Syrian President Bashar al Assad in a televised speech

March 24 called on security forces to avoid using live ammunition, but gunfire was still

reported in and around Daraa during Friday protests. Some 20 protesters were reportedlykilled in the nearby town of Sanamein, according to Al Jazeera.

The protesters in Daraa, a Sunni stronghold in the country, are hardening their anti-regime

stance, now chanting slogans against Maher al Assad, the president¶s brother and head of the elite Republican Guard, whose forces have led the crackdown in the city. Protests

spread northward as well on March 25, with demonstrations reported in the capital of Damascus, where three people were reportedly killed by security forces, the nearby town of

Tel, the city of Homs, the coastal city of Latakia, the northeastern Kurdish city of Wamishliand the city of Hama, the site of the 1982 massacre against the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood

(MB). The protests in these areas were relatively small, however, numbering in thehundreds. But the Syrian security apparatus appears to be struggling in its efforts to

intimidate protesters into keeping off the streets. The steadily growing protests in Daraa andthe spread of demonstrations to other locations increase the potential for the Syrian MB to

become more heavily involved in the uprising.

The ongoing demonstrations in Syria provide an opportunity for Iran to rebuild its leveragein Damascus through offering assistance in crushing the opposition. There are growing

indications that Iran is deploying Hezbollah operatives to Syria from the Lebanese village



of Dayr al Asaher to assist in the crackdowns.

Meanwhile, the Syrian regime appears to be in search of distractions to its domestic crisis,pointing blame at Jordan and the United States for allegedly fueling the protests. A renewed

Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip could also prove to be a useful distraction for

the al Assad government as it resorts to more violent tactics against protesters at home.Damascus remains wary of the precedent set in Libya, where Western coalition forces havemounted a military campaign in the name of protecting protesters from an extraordinarily

violent crackdown.

Yemen

A series of high-profile defections from the regime of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Salehearlier in the week effectively split the country¶s army and tribal landscape in two. In spite

of this, the situation in Yemen was far calmer than expected March 25 after Friday prayers.The streets remain packed as Saudi-mediated negotiations continue between the various

opposition factions and the Saleh government, but the opposition said it had postponed aplanned march to the presidential palace until April 1.

Saleh appears to have resigned himself to the fact that he will be making an early politicaldeparture, but he remains intent on making as dignified an exit as possible. He benefits in

this regard from the multitude of splits within the opposition movement, which has thus far been unable to work out the details of a post-Saleh regime. Saleh is resisting the complete

dismantling of his regime, trying to protect his 22 closest relatives who dominate thesecurity, political and business apparatuses in the country. Hamid al-Ahmar, leader of the

main opposition Islah party and the Hashid tribal confederation, is meanwhile trying toposition himself to take over the next government. However, he faces considerable

opposition from rival Baqil tribesmen as well as many in the south, who resent the al-Ahmar family for seizing their land during the Yemeni civil war. The southerners are

meanwhile counting on YaseenSaeedNoman, the former prime minister of now-defunctSouth Yemen, to counterbalance the northerners.

Concerns have also been raised that Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, commander of Yemen¶s

northwestern military division and 1st Armored Division who defected early in the week, islooking to assert military rule, though al-Ahmar so far claims that is not his intent.

Negotiations are under way over a compromise that would reportedly lead to theresignations of Saleh and al-Ahmar as well as the creation of a transitional council

representing Yemen¶s various interest groups until elections can be held, but so far the talks

have not led to any breakthroughs. Sorting out the details of such an arrangement throughYemen¶s fractured political landscape will be an enormous challenge for Saudi mediators,especially with the Saleh family so deeply entrenched in the regime, tribal tensions

simmering and the potential for more serious clashes between rival security forces looming.



Jordan

Though protests have been occurring regularly in Jordan since January, there has been a

noticeable escalation of tensions in recent days between demonstrators and governmentsupporters as well as security forces. The main reason for this is that youth protesters are

trying to create a tent city of their own in downtown Amman, similar to what was seen inmain squares in Cairo, Manama and Sanaa. A pro-democracy protest group originallyknown as the Jordanian Youth Movement has rechristened itself the ³March 24 Youth´ and

declared March 24 that they would not leave Gamal Abdel Nasser Square, aka Interior Ministry Circle, until their demands are met. They have called for the immediate

resignations of newly appointed Prime Minister Marouf al-Bakhit and General IntelligenceDirectorate head Lt. Gen. Muhammad al-Raqqad as well as the dissolution of parliament.

Like the Al Wefaq movement in Bahrain, they are not pushing for the overthrow of themonarchy but do want significant political reforms that would weaken the power of King

Abdullah II.

The Jordanian government responded with force to the attempted establishment of apermanent encampment in the square. It likely learned from the Egyptian, Bahraini and

Yemeni examples that allowing a large tent city to materialize would eventually either leadto a violent episode that would only inflame the situation or would allow the protests to

take on a life of their own. Roughly 400 government supporters, likely paid by Amman,attacked the 1,500-2,000 demonstrators in the square on both March 24 and March 25,

throwing stones at them. Security forces allowed the clashes to go on for a while beforeusing water cannons to disperse the groups on March 25, and authorities reportedly even

clashed with the anti-government protesters themselves. According to reports, one personhas been killed and more than 100 have been injured.

The role of the Islamist opposition in the Jordanian unrest remains unknown, and they donot appear to have been involved in the clashes of the past two days. Al-Bakhit accusedthem of responsibility for the clashes late March 25, adding that they had received help

from elements living in Egypt and Syria. It is more likely, however, that the JordanianMB¶s political wing, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), is following the Egyptian MB¶s

example, allowing youth protest groups to take the lead in demonstrations while it movestoward negotiations on the sidelines with the regime. Thus far the IAF has resisted an

invitation from the king to take part in the newly created National Dialogue Committee,however.

Jordan, like Bahrain, is a key regional ally of the United States, which is why U.S.

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates traveled to Amman on March 25 to meet with KingAbdullah II. U.S. Central Command chief Gen. James Mattis was also in attendance, oneday after the Bahraini crown prince held meetings of his own with the Jordanian monarch.

There have been no reports as to what may have been discussed in either of these meetings,but Washington is likely trying to reassure Amman that it will stand by the regime, while

simultaneously urging it to speed up the pace of reforms so as to stave off continued unrest.A reported shooting at the home of a Jordanian member of parliament March 25, which did



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Update on Protests in the Middle East