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Update on EMIS 12-13PDV, ESWG April 2013

Sources used: EMIS 12-13, Commune Database 2011, Jim Shoobridge reportGrade Specific EnrolmentsGrade 6Grade 7Grade 9Grade 10G10/6G7/6G10/92000-1 179,988 131,385 60,098 27,709 2001-2 211,108 153,700 86,237 40,883 0.85 0.68 2002-3 236,150 180,906 107,908 52,557 0.86 0.61 2003-4 282,746 201,095 116,219 66,655 0.85 0.62 2004-5 324,586 237,829 130,420 67,707 0.38 0.84 0.58 2005-6 330,801 268,087 134,023 89,383 0.42 0.83 0.69 2006-7 322,138 268,120 151,878 90,315 0.38 0.81 0.67 2007-8 293,632 259,480 169,055 109,629 0.39 0.81 0.72 2008-9 277,153 234,800 169,931 121,637 0.37 0.80 0.72 2009-10 274,689 226,033 172,864 124,607 0.38 0.82 0.73 2010-11 275,253 223,490 158,328 124,820 0.39 0.81 0.72 2011-12 283,920 221,166 146,106 112,081 0.38 0.80 0.71 2012-13 275,171 226,517 138,108 101,536 0.37 0.80 0.69 Note: absolute numbers . But no improvement in proxy effeciencyEnrolment by Grade

Source: EMIS 12-13Pop 6-112011-122012-13 ProvinceAged 6-11Aged 6-11ChangeTotal Total Banteay Meanchey88,889 90,695 102.0% Battambang135,643 138,305 102.0% Kampong Cham220,914 220,929 100.0% Kampong Chhnang65,996 66,992 101.5% Kampong Speu103,071 104,128 101.0% Kampong Thom91,381 91,977 100.7% Kampot80,585 80,932 100.4% Kandal127,086 128,878 101.4% Kep5,383 5,554 103.2% Koh Kong16,908 17,415 103.0% Kratie48,870 49,803 101.9% Mondul Kiri10,464 10,833 103.5% Otdar Meanchey30,120 31,299 103.9% Pailin9,698 10,244 105.6% Phnom Penh120,717 125,476 103.9% Preah Sihanouk26,745 27,426 102.5% Preah Vihear27,499 27,913 101.5% Prey Veng128,831 128,849 100.0% Pursat53,927 54,577 101.2% Ratanak Kiri25,606 26,109 102.0% Siemreap128,146 131,259 102.4% Stung Treng17,302 17,641 102.0% Svay Rieng60,742 60,798 100.1% Takeo113,599 113,792 100.2% Whole Kingdom1,738,122 1,761,825 101.4% - Urban Area322,191 330,635 102.6% - Rural Area1,415,930 1,431,190 101.1%Increase in Urban PopIncrease Remote provinces

Interesting:Kg ChamPrey VengSvay RiengTakeo

Populated provincesSuccessfulRe-entry ???Unlikely.Change in Enrolment by Grade comparedto previous year ProvinceGrade 4Grade 5Grade 6 Banteay Meanchey101%111%95% Battambang98%105%97% Kampong Cham121%156%97% Kampong Chhnang104%112%99% Kampong Speu96%100%100% Kampong Thom98%105%95% Kampot98%105%98% Kandal102%164%99% Kep80%124%97% Koh Kong95%119%98% Kratie96%111%97% Mondul Kiri108%143%81% Otdar Meanchey104%108%102% Pailin126%130%110% Phnom Penh103%115%90% Preah Sihanouk102%121%94% Preah Vihear102%108%86% Prey Veng102%129%97% Pursat93%128%99% Ratanak Kiri116%124%106% Siemreap109%138%99% Stung Treng106%100%99% Svay Rieng94%119%98% Takeo95%108%98% Whole Kingdom103%124%97% - Urban Area103%114%94% - Rural Area103%126%98%Unrealistic changes in Grade 5Enrolment

Almost throughout the country

EMIS error?

Feedback from Kg Cham:POE/DOE/schools:

All: EMIS not correct, even at school level big differences, and even by gender

This makes it unlikely that it is a processing error (e.g. SPSS script)Impact on PNER can be 2-2.5 PP

Comparing EMIS G 5 enrolment with POE Kg ChamGrade 5 EnrolmentPercEMISEMISPOEEMIS higherDistrict2011-122012-132012-13Batheay 2,890 4,283 2,822152%Chamkar Leu 2,583 3,520 2,728129%Cheung Prey 2,331 3,722 2,246166%Dambe 1,992 3,854 2,151179%Kampong Cham 783 982 819120%Kampong Siem 2,439 4,108 2,487165%Kang Meas 2,329 3,550 2,119168%Koh Sotin 1,589 2,008 1,539130%Krauch Chhmar 1,907 2,771 2,084133%Memot 3,717 6,927 4,016172%O Raing Euv 2,222 3,481 2,258154%Ponhea Krek 3,192 4,566 3,588127%Prey Chhor 3,038 4,827 3,224150%Srey Santhor 2,281 3,312 2,280145%Steung Trang 2,721 4,971 2,934169%Suong 714 959 674142%Tbaung Khmum 3,613 5,145 3,946130%Whole Province 40,341 62,986 41,915150%% Over-age Enrolment2011-122012-13Change in Province% Over-age Enrollment (Total)% Over-age Enrollment (Total)Percentage PointsPrimaryL.Sec.PrimaryL.Sec. Kampong Cham24.2 37.7 32.0 29.6 7.9 -8.1 Kampong Speu19.8 37.2 14.8 28.6 -5.0 -8.6 Kep21.7 40.3 9.0 32.0 -12.8 -8.3 Koh Kong24.9 48.7 11.3 42.7 -13.6 -6.0 Otdar Meanchey21.9 51.1 17.5 41.3 -4.4 -9.8 Phnom Penh16.2 27.0 7.0 22.9 -9.1 -4.1 Preah Vihear28.0 51.4 21.2 46.0 -6.8 -5.4 Stung Treng19.3 48.1 10.8 42.7 -8.5 -5.4 Svay Rieng23.0 37.2 22.2 27.3 -0.8 -9.9 Kingdom21.8 36.1 21.4 29.4 -0.4 -6.7 - Urban Area8.5 31.0 10.2 26.7 1.7 -4.3 - Rural Area24.0 37.4 23.2 30.1 -0.8 -7.3 Some big changes

Kg Cham ??

Impact on NER!

PNER: provinces with considerably smaller % over-age: NER goes up

Note: Big change for LS

71 districts NER >= 100

15 < 80

For both:In some SurprisingareasPrimary NER 2012-13 (EMIS)

the regional gap has narrowed substantially121: Education119 districts < 80

= below target

But:

Private school data impacts for urban areas

Need further analysis

Primary Completion 2012-13 (EMIS)

Percent Enrolment in Private Primary Schools in Top 12 Districts14Source: CDB 2011Commune Database:

About 48,000 students in Private Primary SchoolsAbout 2% of 2.2 MillionBut about 15% of urban enrolment of 325,020.

CDB:Annual, collected in December from communes and village chiefsNational coverageM o PlanningWealth of data

1: EducationPCRs Phnom Penh:PPM: 50.7%CHKM: 56.5%DPH: 96.0%TK: 84.5%MCH: 79.6 %50.756.5Cambodia is on track to achieve Primary NER Targets by 201515EMIS2012/13TOTAL87.35URBAN71.79RURAL90.86EMIS2012/13TOTAL94.3 URBAN76.7 RURAL98.6 EMIS2012/13TOTAL97.0 URBAN83.2 RURAL100.2 Urban numbers are lower in EMIS: No capturing of private schools1: EducationPrimary Net EnrolmentPrimary Gender Parity151) Considerable Gap EMIS Enrolment (excl private) and Attendance data from CDB, DHS, Census, CSES, and 2) Trend is less positive than EMIS161: EducationRepetition by Level

No more Survival Rates . But ..

LSS NER has doubled in the last 10 years, but it is much below even the reduced MDG target although it seems to be picking up recently after some stagnation191: Educationthere is recent progress with repetition rates,But drop out rates have remained stagnantMoEYS Target was to half Repetition and Drop Out rates between 2007/08 and 2014/15201: EducationThe transition rate to LSS is less than projected and stagnating And the drop out rate in LSS remains high21These represent a 40% Loss to the human resource development process1: EducationThats It

For now

Next: - a bit more analysis- come up with main issues to be improved- check with DoP