Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling

•Reminder of MICS study

•Progress related to RAINS-Asia activities

•What has taken place since last meeting

•Emerging Activities

Topics Covered

•The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in East Asia

How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships?

Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.

Participant(s) Organization Model name Model type

Main model focus

S.-B. Kim,T.-Y. Lee, K-Y. Ma 

Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)

YU-SADM (Yonsei Univ.-

Sulfur Acid Dep. Model)

3D Eulerian

Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions

H. Hayami, Y. Ichikawa 

CRIEPI (Japan) CRIEPI trajectory model

Lagrangian

1-layer

Long-term evaluation  

H. Hayami, O. Hertel,Y. Ichikawa 

CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark)

ACDEP ASIA Lagrangian

1-layer

Long-term evaluation

I. Uno,E.S. Jang 

Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan)

RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model

3D Eulerian

Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies

Y. Ikeda, R. Yasuda, H. Nakaminami

Osaka Prefecture University (Japan)

OPU-Model (Osaka

Prefecture Univ.)

3D Eulerian

Long-term deposition

S.Y. Cho, G. Carmichael

CGRER, University of Iowa

STEM 3D Eulerian

Episodic and long-term studies

G. Calori, G. Carmichael

CGRER, University of Iowa

ATMOS-2 Lagrangian

multi-layer

Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships.

M. Engardt Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

MATCH 3D Eulerian

Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances

SO2 concentrations - 11-20 January

0

5

10

15

20

ppb

SO4 concentrations - 11-20 January

0

5

10

15

20

ug/m

3

SO4 wet depositions - 11-20 January

1

10

100

1000

ug/m

2

Comparison with monitoring data for the 11-20 January period.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

C China E China S Korea C Japan

Regionl

Model 1

Model 2

Model 5

Model 6

Model 7

Model 8

Wet to total sulfur ratio in depositions for both months (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task

A)

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships

Receptor 4 - Komae (Japan)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

NW ASIA

SE ASIA

TAIWAN

S CHINA

C-E CHINA

NE CHINA

N & S KOREA

JAPAN

Inter-model VariabilityReceptor 16 - Nanjing (China)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Receptor 17 - Taichung (Taiwan)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

•Need to assess inter-annual variability.

How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships?

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Contribution (%)

Variability

(%

)

INDI -> LAOS

VOLC -> INDO

KORN -> KORS

CHIN -> J APA

THAI -> CAMB

INDI -> BANG

INDI -> MYAN

FSU -> MONGCHIN -> CAMB

INDI -> BHUT

INDI -> INDI

CHIN -> CAMB

Interannual Variability (25-yrs)

Journal Global Environmental Engineering, 2002

Transboundary Pollution Issues Contunue to be of Importance

Japan

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

De

po

sitio

n c

on

trib

utio

ns

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

To

tal d

ep

. (G

g S

/yr)

JAPA

CHIN

VOLC

KORS

SEAL

Tot

S-Deposition

RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)

Republic of Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

To

tal d

ep

ositio

n (

Gg

S/y

r)

7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0

L o n

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

Lat

-50

0

50

100

200

300

10000

%

Total S depositions: 1975-2000 % change

Em issions as of 7.3.2000

Change in Sulfur Deposition between 1975 and 2000.

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Emis

sion

% c

hang

e

P.R. China

India

Japan

Malaysia

Pakistan

Republic of Korea

Singapore

Sea lanes

Japan

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

YearT

ota

l d

ep

ositio

n (

Gg

S/y

r)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1975 1980

Volcanoes Sea lanes Taiwan

Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore

Indonesia P.R. Korea Rep. of Korea

Japan P.R. ChinaES&T, Dec., 2002

Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability

on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than

Changes in Emissions!China

-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Year

Japan

-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Year

Is there climate feedback link?

Passive Sampler Network – one way to increase coverage and participation

Passive Sampler Phase II Study Completed

SO2 Results – Annual Averages

NH3 Results – Annual Averages

O3 Results – Annual Averages

Atmos. Env., in press, 2003

Regional Air Pollution Issues

• Long-range transport: Northern China Korea Japan North America (?!) Intercontinental

• Regional visibility impairment, reduced insolation--compounded by dust from western deserts, climate implications

• Acid rain, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition (NH3 involvement from fertilizer use), eutrophicaion of surface waters

• Regional ozone formation, caused by organics + NOx with the involvement of CO and CH4

• Trace elements from coal combustion, particularly Hg• Aerosols, including BC, OC

ACE-Asia (NSF) & TRACE-P (NASA)

Spring 2001 Experiments

NASA/GTE DC-8

Shanghai

y = 0.008x - 1.3186R2 = 0.799

y = 0.0072x - 0.8R2 = 0.6453

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

CO Concentration

HC

HO

Co

ncen

trati

on

Hong Kong

y = 0.0049x + 0.3503R2 = 0.6273

y = 0.0043x + 0.4041R2 = 0.537

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

CO Concentration

C2H

6 C

on

cen

trati

on

Beijing

y = 0.0079x - 1R2 = 0.4348

y = 0.0074x - 1R2 = 0.9076

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

75 125 175 225 275 325

CO Concentration

BC

Con

cent

ratio

n

Comparing Modeled and Measured Ratios

We extract all points associated with a specified city and plot measured ratios and plot modeled ratios.

Comparison of Modeled and Observed Results from China’s Mega Cities

Shanghai model

measured

Shanghai emissions

Hong Kong model

measured

Hong Kong emissions

Beijing model

measured

Beijing emissions

HCHO/CO .0072 .008 0.00249 0.0045 0.0018 0.0096 0.007 0.0072 0.00251

C2H6/CO .0106 .0101 0.00456 0.0043 0.0049 0.01143 0.0058 0.0051 0.00452

SO2/C2H2 4.613 3.71 16.26 2.251 1.150 38.672 4.07 4.10 8.076

SO2/CO .0179 .0195 0.1049 0.0031 0.0031 0.2618 0.0236 0.0214 0.0575

N0x/SO2 .222 .229 0.997 0.468 0.416 2.705 0.299 0.296 0.884

C2H6/C2H2 1.18 1.14 0.7057 1.657 0.736 1.689 1.21 1.22 0.634

BC/CO .0105 .0112 0.00838 0.0058 0.0055 0.01 0.0074 0.0079 0.0080

BC/SO2 .245 .30 0.0799 1.299 1.301 0.06 0.138 0.186 0.14

Urban Photochemistry

NOx-VOC Sensitivity to O3 Production

VOC sensitive

NOx sensitive

Loss(N

)/(L

oss(N

)+Loss(R

))

Model NOx (ppbv)

Model results along the flight path

Megacity points from back trajectories

Klienman et al., 2000Klienman et al., 2000

Less than 2 day old plumes

Results from Trace-P Intercomparison Study

The Importance of Fossil, Biofuels and Open Burning Varies by Region

Using Measurements and Model – We Estimate Contributions of Fossil, Biofuel and Open Burning Sources

Ron Brown –Ace-Asia: Note differences between surface and aloft

Asian Brown Cloud – A New UNEP Study

Where do we go from here?Example of Use of 3-D CFORS modeling system at TRACE-P Information Day in Hong Kong

Considerations for Future MICS Studies

• Many regional modeling efforts in East Asia (Models 3 Community Modeling, Hong Kong EPA, ChinaMap, etc.) How to include them? And Chinese models?

• Nitrate, NH3 & longer-term have been identified as important next steps

• I also see the importance of such studies for dust, PM2.5/10, BC/OC, AOD – real need here as removal processes not well understood, big differences emerge

• and even extending to ozone.

Considerations for Future MICS Studies

Many source receptor like problems remain:• Region to region• Continent to continent• Source contribution

Another related direction is to study connection between what’s observed at the surface and what is in the column above it.

How are results dependent on the Met products?

Upcoming Activities

• ASAAQ Modeling workshop

• NATO/ITM

• ABC Study

• IGAC/CAD

• Others