16
r r INDEPENDENT RESEARCH UPDATE Qiagen 26th November 2013 Next Generation Qiagen Healthcare Fair Value EUR19.5 vs. EUR17 (price EUR17.36) BUY Bloomberg QIA GR Reuters QGEN.DE 12-month High / Low (EUR) 18.0 / 13.5 Market capitalisation (EURm) 4,160 Enterprise Value (BG estimates EURm) 4,539 Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 380.2 Free Float 84.0% 3y EPS CAGR 8.7% Gearing (12/12) 31% Dividend yield (12/13e) NM After attending Qiagen’s investor day, we feel our positive view on the share has been reinforced. Management made a solid case in presenting key growth drivers. Regarding Next Generation Sequencing, Qiagen is heading in the right direction offering customers complete workflow, from sample to insight, which should be available in 2014 with the GeneReader launch. Therefore, we believe that Qiagen has made tremendous changes over the last couple of years to diversify its business outside HPV. Furthermore, we would underline as a major shift in the company’s communication the new focus on return as well as cash generation and margins. We maintain our BUY rating and increase our fair value to EUR19.5. From an HPV dependence to a diversification of growth drivers. QuantiFeron-TB, QIAsymphony, Personalized Healthcare (PHC) and Bioinformatics all represent significant growth opportunities for Qiagen. We estimate that these growth drivers represent 38% of 2013 sales and are expected to grow 18% CAGR between 2013 and 2017 to reach 56% of sales in 2017. On the other hand, HPV US is likely to only represent less than 8% of sales in 2014 versus 18% in 2008. More details on the NGS strategy, still upside risk. While Qiagen still wants to keep technical details about the box for 2014, many details were provided regarding strategy, having both a complete workflow as well as universal solutions. Focus on profitability and return. In our view, one of the key elements is the new compensation plan as well as a clear focus on profitability and cash generation. Qiagen guides for a 250bps EBIT margin expansion from 2013 to 2016 while we factor 280bps. Moreover, management aims to double cash flow from operations in the mid-term. Valuation. Our fair value is increased to EUR19.5. We have excluded share-based compensation from our numbers, as Qiagen will do so in January 2014. The stock is trading at 18.7x P/E 2015 for a 12.1% 14-17 EPS CAGR. YE December 12/12 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e Revenue (USDm) 1,254 1,311 1,366 1,456 EBIT (USDm) 331.01 330.34 357.17 395.90 Basic EPS (USD) 0.98 1.13 1.13 1.25 Diluted EPS (USD) 0.98 1.00 1.13 1.25 EV/Sales 4.8x 4.7x 4.3x 3.9x EV/EBITDA 14.8x 15.0x 13.5x 11.8x EV/EBIT 18.1x 18.6x 16.6x 14.4x P/E 24.0x 23.4x 20.8x 18.7x ROCE 6.7 7.1 7.6 7.6 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 QIAGEN (XET) STOXX EUROPE 600 26/11/13 Source Thomson Reuters Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Mathieu Chabert Martial Descoutures 33(0) 1 70 36 57 45 Eric Le Berrigaud [email protected]

Update Independent Report - Bryan, Garnier & CoINDEPENDENT RESEARCH UPDATE Qiagen 26th November 2013 Next Generation Qiagen Healthcare BUY Fair Value EUR19.5 vs. EUR17 (price EUR17.36)

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Page 1: Update Independent Report - Bryan, Garnier & CoINDEPENDENT RESEARCH UPDATE Qiagen 26th November 2013 Next Generation Qiagen Healthcare BUY Fair Value EUR19.5 vs. EUR17 (price EUR17.36)

r r

INDEPENDENT RESEARCH UPDATE Qiagen

26th November 2013 Next Generation Qiagen Healthcare Fair Value EUR19.5 vs. EUR17 (price EUR17.36) BUY

Bloomberg QIA GR Reuters QGEN.DE 12-month High / Low (EUR) 18.0 / 13.5 Market capitalisation (EURm) 4,160 Enterprise Value (BG estimates EURm) 4,539 Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 380.2 Free Float 84.0% 3y EPS CAGR 8.7% Gearing (12/12) 31% Dividend yield (12/13e) NM

After attending Qiagen’s investor day, we feel our positive view on the share has been reinforced. Management made a solid case in presenting key growth drivers. Regarding Next Generation Sequencing, Qiagen is heading in the right direction offering customers complete workflow, from sample to insight, which should be available in 2014 with the GeneReader launch. Therefore, we believe that Qiagen has made tremendous changes over the last couple of years to diversify its business outside HPV. Furthermore, we would underline as a major shift in the company’s communication the new focus on return as well as cash generation and margins. We maintain our BUY rating and increase our fair value to EUR19.5.

From an HPV dependence to a diversification of growth drivers. QuantiFeron-TB, QIAsymphony, Personalized Healthcare (PHC) and Bioinformatics all represent significant growth opportunities for Qiagen. We estimate that these growth drivers represent 38% of 2013 sales and are expected to grow 18% CAGR between 2013 and 2017 to reach 56% of sales in 2017. On the other hand, HPV US is likely to only represent less than 8% of sales in 2014 versus 18% in 2008.

More details on the NGS strategy, still upside risk. While Qiagen still wants to keep technical details about the box for 2014, many details were provided regarding strategy, having both a complete workflow as well as universal solutions.

Focus on profitability and return. In our view, one of the key elements is the new compensation plan as well as a clear focus on profitability and cash generation. Qiagen guides for a 250bps EBIT margin expansion from 2013 to 2016 while we factor 280bps. Moreover, management aims to double cash flow from operations in the mid-term.

Valuation. Our fair value is increased to EUR19.5. We have excluded share-based compensation from our numbers, as Qiagen will do so in January 2014. The stock is trading at 18.7x P/E 2015 for a 12.1% 14-17 EPS CAGR.

YE December 12/12 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e Revenue (USDm) 1,254 1,311 1,366 1,456 EBIT (USDm) 331.01 330.34 357.17 395.90 Basic EPS (USD) 0.98 1.13 1.13 1.25 Diluted EPS (USD) 0.98 1.00 1.13 1.25 EV/Sales 4.8x 4.7x 4.3x 3.9x EV/EBITDA 14.8x 15.0x 13.5x 11.8x EV/EBIT 18.1x 18.6x 16.6x 14.4x P/E 24.0x 23.4x 20.8x 18.7x ROCE 6.7 7.1 7.6 7.6

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

QIAGEN (XET) STOXX EUROPE 600

26/11/13

Source Thomson Reuters

Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Mathieu Chabert Martial Descoutures 33(0) 1 70 36 57 45 Eric Le Berrigaud [email protected]

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Simplified Profit & Loss Account (EURm) 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e Revenues 1,087 1,170 1,254 1,311 1,366 1,456 1,574 Change (%) 7.7% 7.6% 7.2% 4.5% 4.2% 6.6% 8.0% Adjusted EBITDA 366 390 406 409 439 483 536 EBIT 308 320 331 330 357 396 441 Change (%) -% 3.7% 3.6% -0.2% 8.1% 10.8% 11.5% Financial results (15.4) (3.4) (24.7) (28.9) (18.4) (17.7) (16.8) Pre-tax profits 293 306 306 338 339 378 424 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Tax 28.8 1.3 15.6 4.1 14.3 17.5 21.2 Minority interests 0.0 (1.1) 0.31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net profit 144 96.0 129 47.3 164 201 243 Restated net profit 223 233 235 273 274 304 340 Change (%) 11.8% 4.3% 1.0% 16.4% 0.1% 11.1% 11.7% Cash Flow Statement (EURm) Operating cash flows 267 288 281 247 329 370 421 Change in working capital (15.8) (42.9) (36.0) (38.8) (15.0) (29.8) (35.4) Capex, net (79.7) (86.8) (87.8) (91.7) (95.6) (102) (110) Financial investments, net (35.2) (311) 226 9.8 (290) 9.7 9.7 Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt 221 338 382 513 302 70.4 (200) Free cash flow 171 158 157 116 218 239 275 Balance Sheet (EURm) Tangible fixed assets 444 455 517 500 517 546 583 Intangibles assets 2,106 2,553 2,614 2,654 2,731 2,859 3,022 Cash & equivalents 828 221 394 333 244 475 744 current assets 1,365 748 995 919 843 1,100 1,401 Other assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Total assets 3,914 3,756 4,126 4,074 4,092 4,505 5,007 L & ST Debt 797 588 846 846 546 545 545 Others liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Shareholders' funds 2,476 2,558 2,724 2,643 2,959 3,369 3,866 Total liabilities 3,914 3,756 4,126 4,074 4,092 4,505 5,007 Capital employed 3,526 3,275 3,826 3,759 3,775 4,185 4,682 Ratios Operating margin 28.35 27.32 26.39 25.20 26.15 27.18 28.04 Tax rate 16.64 1.35 10.76 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Net margin 20.50 19.88 18.73 20.86 20.04 20.88 21.58 ROE (after tax) 9.00 9.09 8.62 10.35 9.25 9.03 8.78 ROCE (after tax) 6.66 7.39 6.65 7.10 7.64 7.61 7.54 Gearing 32.19 23.00 31.06 32.00 18.44 16.18 14.08 Pay out ratio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Number of shares, diluted (m) 240 239 241 243 243 243 243 Data per Share (EUR) EPS 0.93 0.97 0.98 1.13 1.13 1.25 1.40 Restated EPS 0.93 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.13 1.25 1.40 % change -0.7% 5.0% 0.3% 2.5% 12.9% 11.1% 11.7% BVPS 10.30 10.70 11.32 10.90 12.20 13.89 15.94 Operating cash flows 1.11 1.20 1.17 1.02 1.36 1.53 1.74 FCF 0.71 0.66 0.65 0.48 0.90 0.98 1.14 Net dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.00

Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.

Company description Qiagen is the global number one in sampling technology in molecular biology. The company addresses all the needs in the value chain of molecular diagnostics: reagents and consumables for the extraction, purification and the analysis of samples in molecular biology, to services in the field of sequencing and DNA production under contract, to a wide range of solutions and platforms (instruments) for automated molecular biology applications. Qiagen’s analysis technologies are one of the world’s widest ranges of molecular diagnostic tests. This range includes the leading screening test for the human papillomavirus (HPV), the principal cause of cancer of the cervix.

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Contents

1. From an HPV dependence to a diversification of growth drivers ....................................................... 4

1.1. Where was Qiagen standing in 2008 and where is it now? ........................................................... 4

1.2. QIAsymphony ...................................................................................................................................... 4

1.3. QuantiFeron-TB ................................................................................................................................... 5

1.4. Personalized Healthcare ...................................................................................................................... 6

1.5. Emerging markets ................................................................................................................................ 7

2. Bio-Informatics and NGS ............................................................................................................................ 8

2.1. CLC and Ingenuity as best in class .................................................................................................... 8

2.2. Integrating the GeneReader on a complete workflow ................................................................... 9

3. Increased focus on return and profitability ............................................................................................. 11

3.1. Margin expansion and cash flow generation in sight ................................................................... 11

3.2. A new compensation plan ................................................................................................................ 12

4. Valuation ....................................................................................................................................................... 13

Price Chart and Rating History .......................................................................................................................... 14

Bryan Garnier stock rating system ..................................................................................................................... 15

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1. From an HPV dependence to a diversification of growth drivers

1.1. Where was Qiagen standing in 2008 and where is it now?

We believe it is worth taking a step back and look at how Qiagen was HPV dependent back in 2008-2010 and how the company has been able to diversify its portfolio over the last couple of years. HPV represented 24% back in 2008 (19% US HPV) while, with the Quest/Hologic agreement effective in 2014, we expect HPV to represent 12% of sales in 2014 (7.7% US HPV).

On the other hand, we believe that the four growth drivers mentioned below represent 37.7% of sales and are set to grow 18.6% between 2013 and 2017 to represent 56.5% of sales in 2017.

Fig. 1: Qiagen sales by Customer class

Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.

1.2. QIAsymphony While QIAsymphony was not a major topic during the investors day, we believe it is worth mentioning that demand for this instrument is not fading. Qiagen reached 1,000 placements during Q3 and expects to maintain its trend of c.250 instruments placed each year. Guidance for 2015 is indeed to reach more than 1,500 instruments.

We estimate that roughly 70% of placements happen in molecular diagnostics and 30% in life sciences. Given that number, it is not surprising to see that 75% of placements is based on reagent rental agreements. Nevertheless, we believe it is more relevant to look at QIAsymphony consumables’ growth which we estimate in the high twenties. Revenue derived from this instrument is between USD30k and USD300k and we assume this means an average of around USD80-100k.

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10%

20%

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Growth drivers (MDx + BioInformatics) HPV US HPV ex US Applied Testing Pharma Academia

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Fig. 2: QIAsymphony placements since launch

Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.

Looking at the pipeline, Qiagen has given new details around some launches and submissions such as C.diff (Clostridium difficile) which will be launched in Europe in 2013 and submitted in the US in 2014, CT/NG which was launched in Europe in July 2013 and will be submitted in the US in 2015, or MRSA submitted both in Europe and the US in 2015. This pipeline of Molecular Diagnostics is definitely one of the largest in the industry.

1.3. QuantiFeron-TB While it is not unfounded to say that the Digene acquisition has not been as successful as Qiagen could have hoped for, that of Cellestis has clearly been a good deal. QuantiFeron-TB is growing north of 20% and we do not see any change on this trend.

Tuberculosis is still a major disease as there are 1.3 million TB deaths annually worldwide and roughly 2 billion people with latent TB. More than 10% of these will develop active TB. Therefore monitoring latent TB is a key element of prevention as underlined by the willingness of the World Health Organization to release guidelines of latent TB testing by the end of 2014. Worldwide, more than 50m latent TB tests are done each year.

The current standard of care is the Tuberculin Skin Test (TST), a 120-year old test, which presents several limitations compared to new tests known as Interferon-Gamma Release Assays (IGRAs) such as QuantiFeron-TB. We believe that a switch from TST to IGRAs is set to continue mainly due to the fact that TST requires several doctors’ visits and has a much lower specificity (65.9% vs. >99% for IGRAs). Despite its lower price (USD2 versus USD20 estimated for QuantiFeron-TB), case studies have reported that using new generation TB blood testing has lower costs for the healthcare system than using TSTs. Moreover, this market conversion has been boosted by the shortage of Tuberculin in the US, the main component of the TST made by Sanofi. While this should not last forever, we do not see customers returning to the old method.

Qiagen is expecting QuantiFeron-TB to reach more than USD80m in 2013 and USD100m in 2014. We stand at USD83m in 2013 and USD103m in 2014.

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Fig. 3: QuantiFeron-TB sales model

2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e

No. of TB tests (m) 50 51 52 53 54 55 56

Growth 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Share of QuantiFeron-TB 5.6% 6.7% 8.3% 10.3% 12.8% 15.9% 20.0%

Price (USD) 20 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.4 18.1 17.7

Growth -2% -2% -2% -2% -2% -2%

Sales (USDm) 56 67 83 103 128 159 200

Growth 19.6% 23.8% 24.0% 24.2% 24.2% 25.7%

% of sales 5.4% 6.3% 7.5% 8.8% 10.1% 11.6%

Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.

Looking at geographies, the Americas represent 58% of sales, EMEA 26% of sales, Japan 7% of sales and Asia Pacific 9%. The last one should be boosted by the fact that Qiagen announced that the Chinese authorities have granted approval to QuantiFeron-TB in the country. Launch is expected to take place in early 2014. China is a major opportunity for TB testing, as it is the second market in terms of active TB prevalence. Qiagen is conducting a latent TB prevalence study with results expected in 2014 and should have a positive impact on healthcare policies.

Two other elements were mentioned: 1/ The confirmation that QuantiFeron-TB manufacturing is progressively shifting from outsourced production to internal production in Maryland. This should be completed in 2014 and have a positive impact on gross margins. Indeed, QuantiFeron-TB has currently a slightly lower than the group’s average gross margin while it should be slightly higher as soon as manufacturing has been fully brought in-house; and 2/ Qiagen is currently developing a 4th version of this test, which should have greater sensitivity and specificity as well as improved IP and handling.

1.4. Personalized Healthcare While we mentioned in May this year that a very important Medicare Contractor (Palmetto) had set the ground for a change in the reimbursement paradigm for CDx, we believe this is the first time that Qiagen has made this statement loud and clear.

As a reminder, there are two types of diagnostics tests in the US: 1/ Laboratory Developed Tests (LDT's), also referred to as Homebrews, are diagnostic tests that are developed and manufactured by CLIA certified laboratories under their Quality Management System. These tests are developed by the lab for use only in that laboratory; and 2/ FDA approved diagnostics tests with a 510k pathway or more frequently for CDx with a Pre Market Approval (PMA). Qiagen has received over the last 18 months two PMA-approved CDx namely therascreen KRAS to guide the use of Erbitux in colorectal cancer (Merck KGAA/Lilly) and thereacreen EGFR to guide the use of Gilotrif (Boehringer Ingelheim) in lung cancer.

In 2011, Medicare decided to launch with Palmetto a pilot programme, MolDx, which aimed at determining Molecular Diagnostics’ reimbursement rates. Palmetto introduced for the very first time a differential reimbursement for FDA-approved tests versus LDTs. As an example, therascreen KRAS will be reimbursed at USD385m versus USD199m for LDTs. As a result, there is a clear financial incentive for labs to switch to FDA-approved tests. The latest announcement from LabCorp in late October that they will now offer Qiagen’s KRAS test is a clear recognition of this differential reimbursement.

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While there has been more and more support from the FDA as emphasised by the FDA commission address at ASCO this year which was focused on CDx, we believe that the move from Palmetto is a major one to drive adoption of FDA-approved CDx.

Qiagen owns one of the largest pipelines of CDx in development. The latest agreements involve companies such Lilly or Clovis. Management mentioned during the investors day that many deals were signed in 2013 but few of them were actually disclosed due to pharmaceutical companies’ willingness to keep R&D projects under the radar. We see PHC sales growing on a 19% CAGR 13-17. Next FDA approvals could be CDx for Vectibix (Amgen) or Iressa (AstraZeneca).

Fig. 4: PHC pipeline

Source: Qiagen

1.5. Emerging markets Q3 sales have put the spotlight on emerging markets with 38% growth driven by molecular diagnostics and especially HPV sales. Qiagen demonstrated its ability to gain tenders in HPV in Latin America for example. China now represents c.6-7% of sales and should be boosted by the approval of QuantiFeron-TB. All in all, we expect Qiagen’s sales in emerging markets to close the gap versus competitors. Emerging 7 currently represents 13% of sales versus 29% for bioMérieux and c.19% for DiaSorin. Management expects that emerging markets will represent c.20% of sales in the mid-term.

Fig. 5: Emerging markets as % of sales

Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.

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2. Bio-Informatics and NGS Qiagen is pursuing a dual strategy in the Next Generation Sequencing field with on one-hand universal solutions such as Bio-Informatics as well as the launch of the complete workflow with sample prep, the GeneReader and Bio-Informatics. We believe this strategy makes sense. Qiagen will be able to capitalise on the growth of the market with universal solutions compatible with Illumina or Ion Torrent. But the launch of an integrated workflow from sample to insight could also be game changing in 2014.

2.1. CLC and Ingenuity as best in class With Ingenuity and CLC acquisitions, Qiagen has put a strong focus on Bioinformatics and has built a leading position in the field. Illumina also showed interest in this area in buying NextBio in early November. While 2012 saw many announcements regarding technical advances (genome sequenced in 24 hours for USD1,000), we believe that this bioinformatics part of the NGS process is critical in allowing sequencing to produce valuable and interpretable biological information. CLC and Ingenuity are two highly complementary approaches and the two companies had already integrated their solutions before being bought out separately by Qiagen.

CLC has created proprietary algorithms that have the ability to generate simple and actionable VCF files and variant reports. CLC solutions reduce RAM requirements which lead to lower hardware costs for the lab. CLC Genomics workbench is compatible with all sequencing technologies as well as all IT systems (Windows, Mac, and Linux).

With more than 15k product users, 40/40 top Pharma companies, >500 academic institutions, Ingenuity has established itself as the clear leader in the data interpretation space. Qiagen spent some time introducing a new clinical product which will bring a higher level of automation to the data interpretation workflow.

Fig. 6: CLC and Ingenuity

Source: Qiagen

The NGS bioinformatics business is set to triple in the next five years according Qiagen’s estimates to reach USD600m in 2018 from USD200m in 2013. Qiagen is very well positioned to play a major role in this market. We estimate that this franchise could represent c.USD40m in 2014 (3% of sales) and will be able to grow 30% per year between 2014 and2016.

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Fig. 7: Bioinformatics market

Source: Qiagen

2.2. Integrating the GeneReader on a complete workflow

While not disclosing precise elements in terms of sales potential or exact timing for launch, we believe that the case for an integrated workflow is quite compelling. As mentioned earlier, Qiagen will offer both universal solutions as well as sample to insight solutions.

Fig. 8: NGS workflow

Source: Qiagen

Regarding sample prep and library preparations, Qiagen is offering superior products mainly by bringing a higher level of automation. As an example, the new GeneRead kit reduces by nearly 50% the time for library construction (from 250 minutes to 130 minutes). Qiagen will release technical specifications of GeneReader over the course of 2014 but we believe it is worth mentioning that the sequencer is based on the same technology, sequencing by synthesis (SBS), as Illumina’s. While we do not expect Qiagen to compete on the box itself but more on the workflow perspective, we believe bringing the same technology might help switches from Illumina. One of the key differentiations of the GeneReader will be its flexible throughput with the ability to have 1 to 20 independent runs with a highly competitive cost per sample, which should be appreciated in clinical applications.

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Despite Illumina deciding to close its PCR division, we believe that being able to offer both NGS and PCR could be a major asset for Qiagen. Indeed, our discussions with customers are not clear on whether PCR or NGS will be used as primary screening but many agree that the two options are complementary.

We have not yet included sales of the box in our estimates as we wait for more details from Qiagen which should occur in 2014. Furthermore, it is likely that the model will be “reagent rental” agreements which mean more sales around the end of the year.

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3. Increased focus on return and profitability

Bears often argue that return and profitability are not really core to Qiagen’s management. Dilutive acquisitions, low return, poor cash flow generation are some of the arguments we are hearing. While this might have been the case on some specific occasions, we argue that management has put a strong focus on execution and delivering return in the last 12-18 months. 2014 and after should see the benefits of this strategy. Qiagen aims to expand margins by 250bps between 2013 and2016 (BGe: 280bps) and doubling operating cash flow in the mid-term. Finally, the new compensation scheme is a major move in our view, aligning managers’ incentives with value creation.

3.1. Margin expansion and cash flow generation in sight

In the last 12-18 months, Qiagen has undertaken some major efficiency plans with a redeployment of more than 20% of resources to the growth drivers mentioned above. The restructuring plan has now been concluded and several efficiencies have been put in place: commercial teams have been integrated (one unique sales force for life sciences and IVD), outsourcing of IT operations, global logistics partnering. Therefore, we expect Qiagen to leverage on these benefits.

With an acceleration of organic growth, we do not see why Qiagen would not be able to expand margins by 75-100bps per year. The company has guided on 250bps expansion over 2013-2016, we stand at 280bps which would mean a 28% adjusted EBIT margin ex-share based. Consensus comparison is difficult considering that not all estimates exclude share based. However, we do believe this might stand slightly higher than the Street’s expectations.

Fig. 9: Bryan Garnier’s EBIT margin projections

Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.

Another strong statement from Qiagen’s CFO was the objective of doubling cash from operations in the mid-term. While the horizon remains unclear, we believe it underlines the willingness to increase cash generation post restructuring.

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3.2. A new compensation plan In our view, one of the highlights of the investors day depends on the new compensation plan for Qiagen’s management. As shown below, compensation metrics are now much more aligned with shareholders’ interest.

Fig. 10: Qiagen’s new compensation scheme

Source: Qiagen

Instead of stock options, management will now be incentivised through a 3-year programme (2014-2016) based on three elements: Net sales, Adjusted operating income margin, QVA (Qiagen Value Added measured by net reported operating profit minus cost of capital). All these metrics are intended on an organic basis. In terms of organic growth, we are inclined to think that to reach 100% of the incentive strong high single-digit organic growth on a CAGR basis is required.

Shareholding requirements have also been put in place for the top 50 managers with a minimum amount of shares required to be owned. From a return to shareholders’ perspective, Qiagen confirmed that it would like to distribute a dividend at some point but next year might be too early. In the meantime, share buy-backs are a good compromise before a dividend. As a reminder, Qiagen launched a second USD100m share buy-back in September which should be concluded in Q1 2014.

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4. Valuation We have increased our DCF based fair value to EUR19.5 as we rolled over our DCF to 2014 as well as adjusting our estimates mainly on QuantiFeron-TB and Bioinformatics. Our 2016 sales estimate is 1.9% higher than our previous estimate and our EPS is 2.7% higher than the previous estimate.

Fig. 11: Sales estimates (USDm)

Sales 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e

Old 1 304 1 349 1 436 1 545

New 1 311 1 366 1 456 1 574

Delta 0,5% 1,3% 1,4% 1,9%

Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.

Fig. 12: EPS estimates USD

2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e

Old 1.00 1.10 1.22 1.36

New 1.00 1.13 1.25 1.40

Delta 0.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7%

Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.

Page 14: Update Independent Report - Bryan, Garnier & CoINDEPENDENT RESEARCH UPDATE Qiagen 26th November 2013 Next Generation Qiagen Healthcare BUY Fair Value EUR19.5 vs. EUR17 (price EUR17.36)

Qiagen

14

Price Chart and Rating History

Qiagen

Ratings

Date Ratings Price

04/05/12 BUY EUR13.11

05/07/11 NEUTRAL EUR13.48

Target Price

Date Target price

19/11/13 Under review

17/01/13 EUR17

28/11/12 EUR16.4

04/05/12 EUR15.8

31/10/11 EUR12

06/07/11 EUR14.4

22/11/13

2011 2012 20139

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

QIAGEN (XET)

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Page 15: Update Independent Report - Bryan, Garnier & CoINDEPENDENT RESEARCH UPDATE Qiagen 26th November 2013 Next Generation Qiagen Healthcare BUY Fair Value EUR19.5 vs. EUR17 (price EUR17.36)

Qiagen

15

Bryan Garnier stock rating system For the purposes of this Report, the Bryan Garnier stock rating system is defined as follows: Stock rating

BUY Positive opinion for a stock where we expect a favourable performance in absolute terms over a period of 6 months from the publication of a recommendation. This opinion is based not only on the FV (the potential upside based on valuation), but also takes into account a number of elements including a SWOT analysis, positive momentum, technical aspects and the sector backdrop. Every subsequent published update on the stock will feature an introduction outlining the key reasons behind the opinion.

NEUTRAL Opinion recommending not to trade in a stock short-term, neither as a BUYER or a SELLER, due to a specific set of factors. This view is intended to be temporary. It may reflect different situations, but in particular those where a fair value shows no significant potential or where an upcoming binary event constitutes a high-risk that is difficult to quantify. Every subsequent published update on the stock will feature an introduction outlining the key reasons behind the opinion.

SELL Negative opinion for a stock where we expect an unfavourable performance in absolute terms over a period of 6 months from the publication of a recommendation. This opinion is based not only on the FV (the potential downside based on valuation), but also takes into account a number of elements including a SWOT analysis, positive momentum, technical aspects and the sector backdrop. Every subsequent published update on the stock will feature an introduction outlining the key reasons behind the opinion.

Distribution of stock ratings

BUY ratings 57.1% NEUTRAL ratings 29.5% SELL ratings 13.4%

Research Disclosure Legend

1 Bryan Garnier shareholding in Issuer

Bryan Garnier & Co Limited or another company in its group (together, the “Bryan Garnier Group”) has a shareholding that, individually or combined, exceeds 5% of the paid up and issued share capital of a company that is the subject of this Report (the “Issuer”).

No

2 Issuer shareholding in Bryan Garnier

The Issuer has a shareholding that exceeds 5% of the paid up and issued share capital of one or more members of the Bryan Garnier Group.

No

3 Financial interest A member of the Bryan Garnier Group holds one or more financial interests in relation to the Issuer which are significant in relation to this report

No

4 Market maker or liquidity provider

A member of the Bryan Garnier Group is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the Issuer or in any related derivatives.

No

5 Lead/co-lead manager In the past twelve months, a member of the Bryan Garnier Group has been lead manager or co-lead manager of one or more publicly disclosed offers of securities of the Issuer or in any related derivatives.

No

6 Investment banking agreement

A member of the Bryan Garnier Group is or has in the past twelve months been party to an agreement with the Issuer relating to the provision of investment banking services, or has in that period received payment or been promised payment in respect of such services.

No

7 Research agreement A member of the Bryan Garnier Group is party to an agreement with the Issuer relating to the production of this Report.

No

8 Analyst receipt or purchase of shares in Issuer

The investment analyst or another person involved in the preparation of this Report has received or purchased shares of the Issuer prior to a public offering of those shares.

No

9 Remuneration of analyst The remuneration of the investment analyst or other persons involved in the preparation of this Report is tied to investment banking transactions performed by the Bryan Garnier Group.

No

10 Corporate finance client In the past twelve months a member of the Bryan Garnier Group has been remunerated for providing corporate finance services to the issuer or may expect to receive or intend to seek remuneration for corporate finance services from the Issuer in the next six months.

No

11 Analyst has short position The investment analyst or another person involved in the preparation of this Report has a short position in the securities or derivatives of the Issuer.

No

12 Analyst has long position The investment analyst or another person involved in the preparation of this Report has a long position in the securities or derivatives of the Issuer.

No

13 Bryan Garnier executive is an officer

A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of the Bryan Garnier Group, or a member of such person’s household, is a partner, director, officer or an employee of, or adviser to, the Issuer or one of its parents or subsidiaries. The name of such person or persons is disclosed above.

No

14 Analyst disclosure The analyst hereby certifies that neither the views expressed in the research, nor the timing of the publication of the research has been influenced by any knowledge of clients positions and that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect his/her personal views about the investment and issuer to which the report relates and that no part of his/her remuneration was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

Yes

15 Other disclosures Other specific disclosures: Report sent to Issuer to verify factual accuracy (with the recommendation/rating, price target/spread and summary of conclusions removed).

No

A copy of the Bryan Garnier & Co Limited conflicts policy in relation to the production of research is available at www.bryangarnier.com

Page 16: Update Independent Report - Bryan, Garnier & CoINDEPENDENT RESEARCH UPDATE Qiagen 26th November 2013 Next Generation Qiagen Healthcare BUY Fair Value EUR19.5 vs. EUR17 (price EUR17.36)

London Dowgate Hill House 14-16 Dow Gate Hill London EC4R 2SU Tel: +44 (0) 207 332 2500 Fax: +44 (0) 207 332 2559 Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA)

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New Delhi The Imperial Hotel Janpath New Delhi 110 001 Tel +91 11 4132 6062 +91 98 1111 5119 Fax +91 11 2621 9062

Important information This independent investment research report (the “Report”) was prepared by Bryan Garnier & Co Limited and is being distributed only to clients of Bryan Garnier & Co Limited (the “Firm”). Bryan Garnier & Co Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (the “FSA”) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. This Report is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities, including securities mentioned in this Report and options, warrants or rights to or interests in any such securities. This Report is for general circulation to clients of the Firm and as such is not, and should not be construed as, investment advice or a personal recommendation. No account is taken of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person. The information and opinions contained in this Report have been compiled from and are based upon generally available information which the Firm believes to be reliable but the accuracy of which cannot be guaranteed. All components and estimates given are statements of the Firm, or an associated company’s, opinion only and no express representation or warranty is given or should be implied from such statements. All opinions expressed in this Report are subject to change without notice. To the fullest extent permitted by law neither the Firm nor any associated company accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this Report. Information may be available to the Firm and/or associated companies which are not reflected in this Report. The Firm or an associated company may have a consulting relationship with a company which is the subject of this Report. This Report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by you for any purpose except with the Firms’ prior written permission. The Firm reserves all rights in relation to this Report. Past performance information contained in this Report is not an indication of future performance. The information in this report has not been audited or verified by an independent party and should not be seen as an indication of returns which might be received by investors. Similarly, where projections, forecasts, targeted or illustrative returns or related statements or expressions of opinion are given (“Forward Looking Information”) they should not be regarded as a guarantee, prediction or definitive statement of fact or probability. Actual events and circumstances are difficult or impossible to predict and will differ from assumptions. A number of factors, in addition to the risk factors stated in this Report, could cause actual results to differ materially from those in any Forward Looking Information.

Disclosures specific to clients in the United Kingdom This Report has not been approved by Bryan Garnier & Co Limited for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 because it is being distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who have been classified by Bryan Garnier & Co Limited as professional clients or eligible counterparties. Any recipient who is not such a person should return the Report to Bryan Garnier & Co Limited immediately and should not rely on it for any purposes whatsoever.

Notice to US investors This research report (the “Report”) was prepared by Bryan Garnier & Co. Ltd. for information purposes only. The Report is intended for distribution in the United States to “Major US Institutional Investors” as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6 and may not be furnished to any other person in the United States. Each Major US Institutional Investor which receives a copy of this Report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide this Report to any other person. Any US person that desires to effect transactions in any security discussed in this Report should call or write to our US affiliated broker, Bryan Garnier Securities, LLC. 750 Lexington Avenue, New York NY 10022. Telephone: 1-212-337-7000. This Report is based on information obtained from sources that Bryan Garnier & Co. Ltd. believes to be reliable and, to the best of its knowledge, contains no misleading, untrue or false statements but which it has not independently verified. Neither Bryan Garnier & Co. Ltd. and/or Bryan Garnier Securities LLC make no guarantee, representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change without notice. This Report is not an offer to buy or sell any security. Bryan Garnier Securities, LLC and/or its affiliate, Bryan Garnier & Co. Ltd. may own more than 1% of the securities of the company(ies) which is (are) the subject matter of this Report, may act as a market maker in the securities of the company(ies) discussed herein, may manage or co-manage a public offering of securities for the subject company(ies), may sell such securities to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for the company(ies).

Bryan Garnier Securities, LLC and/or Bryan Garnier & Co. Ltd. are unaware of any actual, material conflict of interest of the research analyst who prepared this Report and are also not aware that the research analyst knew or had reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest at the time this Report is distributed or made available.