Update File Final - Fellows

8/14/2019 Update File Final - Fellows

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KNDI 2k8 Final UpdateFellows - 1

***Climate*** .................................................................................................................................................................................................Bush Push World Bank Now on Climate .........................................................................................................................................................World Bank Doesnt Solve Warming ...............................................................................................................................................................Carbon Trading Doesnt Solve Warming .........................................................................................................................................................China and India Not Acting .............................................................................................................................................................................US Covers Up Effects of Warming ..................................................................................................................................................................Warming = Environmental Damage ................................................................................................................................................................

No Government Action on Climate Now ............................................................................................................................................. ...... .....US Acting Now on Climate ............................................................................................................................................................ .................Carbon Emission Reduction Cost Billions ............................................................................................................................................. ...... ...Environmental Regs Inevitable ........................................................................................................................................................................Warming Kills Oceans/Reefs ...........................................................................................................................................................................G8 Climate Program Fails ...............................................................................................................................................................................Emissions Reduction Doesnt Solve ................................................................................................................................................................***Doha/Bilateral Trade*** ......................................................................................................................................................................... ...***Coal/Natural Gas*** ................................................................................................................................................................ ...... ...... .....Coal Rebouding/Fluctuations now ....................................................................................................................................................... ...... .....China/India Demand Shifting ..........................................................................................................................................................................Uniqueness: Supply Crunch Now China ......................................................................................................................................................China Coal Imports High .............................................................................................................................................................................Prices Falling Czech Republic ......................................................................................................................................................................LNG Crisis Now : Iran ....................................................................................................................................................................................LNG Crisis Now: Iran .................................................................................................................................................................................. ...US LNG Demand Increasing ..........................................................................................................................................................................US LNG Demand Falling ................................................................................................................................................................................

US LNG Industry Screwed Now .....................................................................................................................................................................US LNG Industry not screwed now ...............................................................................................................................................................McCain likes Clean Coal ................................................................................................................................................................................Coal Reserves will be deplated 2050 ............................................................................................................................................................Clean Coal = Elections issue ...........................................................................................................................................................................***McCain Will Win*** .............................................................................................................................................................................. ...McCain Win .................................................................................................................................................................................................. ...

No Uniqueness ...............................................................................................................................................................................................A2: Voting Record Link ...................................................................................................................................................................................McCain Alt. Energy Link ................................................................................................................................................................................A2: Obama Strikes Iran .......................................................................................................................................................................... ...... ...***Elections Internals*** .................................................................................................................................................................... ...... .....Turnout/excitement ..........................................................................................................................................................................................

Econ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................Econ .................................................................................................................................................................................................................Gay Issues ........................................................................................................................................................................................................Hilary as VP ....................................................................................................................................................................................................Age ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................Obama Could Lose ..........................................................................................................................................................................................Too Early ........................................................................................................................................................................................................Swing Voters Not Key ....................................................................................................................................................................................Womens Rights/Key .......................................................................................................................................................................................Judicial Nominations .......................................................................................................................................................................................

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Final

Updates


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Obama is a 2AR ..............................................................................................................................................................................................***Competitiveness/Tech*** ..................................................................................................................................................................... .....***Petro Dollar/Dollar Updates*** ................................................................................................................................................................***Saudi Arabia*** ........................................................................................................................................................................................***Obama Will Win*** ..................................................................................................................................................................................

***Oil-Peak/Prices*** ........................................................................................................................................................................... ...... ...Peak Oil ................................................................................................................................................................................................ ...... .....Oil Prices High ............................................................................................................................................................................... ...... ...... .....Oil Prices High ............................................................................................................................................................................... ...... ...... .....Oil Prices High ............................................................................................................................................................................... ...... ...... .....Oil Prices High ........................................................................................................................................................................................ ......1***Readiness/Hegemony*** ........................................................................................................................................................................1Dollar Decline Now .......................................................................................................................................................................................1Weak Dollar Destroys Hegemony ............................................................................................................................................................. ....1Heg Bad Dollar Key ...................................................................................................................................................................................1Other Dollar Leaders Now ............................................................................................................................................................................1Readiness Low ...............................................................................................................................................................................................1Hegemony Low ............................................................................................................................................................................. ...... ...... ....1

Hegemony Low ............................................................................................................................................................................. ...... ...... ....1Global Warming Kills Readiness ...................................................................................................................................................................1Readiness Decline Now ............................................................................................................................................................................ .....1Heg Decline Inevitable ..................................................................................................................................................................................1Hege Decline Inevitable .................................................................................................................................................................................1Hege Decline Inevitable .................................................................................................................................................................................1Military Power Sustainable, Economic Power Not .......................................................................................................................................1Economic Hegemony Declining ....................................................................................................................................................................1Economic Hegemony Declining ....................................................................................................................................................................1Dollar Stable, but Could Collapse (Uniqueness and Impact) ........................................................................................................................1***Brazil/Venezuela*** ................................................................................................................................................................................1Brazil Relations Low .....................................................................................................................................................................................1Brazil Relations High .................................................................................................................................................................. ...... ...... ......1Brazil Countering Venezuela Now ................................................................................................................................................................1Venezuela Relations Low ..............................................................................................................................................................................1Venezuela Relations High ..............................................................................................................................................................................1***Russia*** .................................................................................................................................................................................................1Shim Thought 3 Cards = 15 ...........................................................................................................................................................................1

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***Climate*

**


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Bush is pushing for the World Bank to have an expanded role in climate - China and India oppose

Redman, 7/11/2008 (Janet Redman is a researcher for the Sustainable Energy and Economy Network at the Institute for PolicyStudies in Washington, D.C., where she provides analysis of the international financial institutions' energy investment and carbfinance activities; Brilliant Plans to Destroy the Planet: The World Bank Tackles Climate Change,http://www.alternet.org/workplace/90932/?ses=f988a6c3ee14dd5bc68f73eeb2caf5ba)

President Bush and other leaders of the industrialized world managed to produce a masterfully vague, loophole-ridden statemenon climate change at a Group of 8 summit held at a secluded resort on the banks of Lake Toyako in Japan this week.

Meanwhile, thousands of delegates from grassroots movements transformed tranquil Odori Park in downtown Sapporo into thecentral nervous system of a bottom-up response to ecologically destructive development policies. On the opening day of the G8summit, activists from every continent joined Japanese environmental and global justice groups in the streets brandishing

banners, flags and megaphones. Their message was unambiguous: "Climate Justice, Yes! World Bank, No!"

Their boiled-down slogans were in response to a communiqu released on the second day of the official summit that endorsedthe World Bank's newly created Climate Investment Funds. The $6 billion pledged by the United States, the United Kingdom anJapan to these funds will do nothing to help the climate. Instead, they will give the World Bank an even larger -- and completelyinappropriate -- leadership role on climate change.

Large developing countries, such as China and India, have clearly stated their opposition to climate funds being channeledthrough the World Bank. More than 130 developing nations issued a statement at climate talks in Germany in June that theUnited Nations, not the World Bank, should have control of any funds contributed for weathering climate change. If given to thWorld Bank, they argued, these funds should not count toward countries' obligations under the international climate changeconvention. By ignoring their unified position, the G8 support for this expanded World Bank role in climate funding jeopardize

efforts to bring developing countries to the table for a global climate deal.

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Bush Push World Bank Now on

Climate


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The World Bank fails at solving warming


The World Bank's effort to reinvent itself as the global climate crusader is a dangerous charade. With $2 billion already spent oncoal, oil and gas projects this year, the World Bank continues to be among the world's largest multilateral financiers ofgreenhouse-gas-emitting projects in the developing world.

The new Climate Investment Funds proposed by the United States and others will house the Clean Technology Fund. Donationfrom rich countries will ostensibly be used to bring low-carbon technologies to developing countries, and clean energy access totheir poorest citizens. But environmental groups have taken to calling the Clean Technology Fund the Slightly Less DirtyTechnology Fund because of the bank's outright support for slightly more efficient coal power.

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World Bank Doesnt Solve

Warming


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Carbon Trading fails - exporting emissions


Predictably, the G8 highlighted its support for market mechanisms, such as carbon trading, as key instruments in fighting climachange. The World Bank has long favored carbon trading. The institution's zeal for this approach is not surprising: A recentreport by the Institute for Policy Studies found that on average, the bank rakes in a 13 percent overhead on the emissions deals

brokers.

The inconvenient truth behind carbon trading is that while companies in industrialized countries continue to pollute at home,they "outsource" their emissions cuts to countries with no caps. In other words, for every incrementally less-polluting coal plangenerating carbon credits in a developing country, a dirty coal plant can be built next door. This accounting system may be

profitable for carbon brokers like the World Bank, and less costly for Northern polluters, but it does nothing to avert climatedisaster.

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Carbon Trading Doesnt Solve

Warming


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China and India won't initiate climate change without economic protection

The Globe and Mail, 7/11/2008(India, China concerned about climate, Harper says, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080711.G811/TPStory/National)

TOKYO -- Big developing countries such as China and India appreciate the need to deal with climate change but want to protetheir rapid economic growth, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said yesterday after an international summit dominated by thetopic.

However, they must understand that wealthy countries such as Canada cannot allow their economies to suffer, either, byshouldering too much of the burden to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, he said.

"I don't think this is a hopeless discussion we're having with the emerging world on climate change, but for them, it's a questionthat they will not separate from the economy," Mr. Harper told reporters in Tokyo.

"And as you know, as the leader of our country, I've been very clear that I will not separate it from a discussion about oureconomic prospects."

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China and India Not

Acting


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Washington covered reports on the dangers of climate

The Guardian, 7/10/2008 (Blowing the whistle on climate change,http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/10/climatechange.dickcheney)

But Burnett spilled about more than just this recent scuffle. He also noted that in the fall of 2007, the Council on EnvironmentaQuality and the Cheney's office asked him to work with the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to remove

portions of a report detailing the threats that climate change poses to human health. The document in question was the testimonthat Julie Gerberding, director of the CDC, had prepared to give before the Senate environment and public works committeeabout the human impacts of global warming. After her testimony in October 2007, it came to light that the White House hadedited it down from 14 pages to a mere four, cutting the six pages detailing the diseases and other health problems that would bexacerbated by a warming planet. Burnett's letter this week was the first evidence, however, that the call for edits came directlyfrom Cheney's office, which he says asked him to "remove from the testimony any discussion of the human health consequenceof climate change".

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US Covers Up Effects of

Warming


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Global warming catalyzes the effect of smog - pollution and environmental damage ensue

Associated Press, 7/10/2008 (EPA: Smog could get worse with global warming,http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hGnpiLDanDQi0dMmqzHTkGIjx5MAD91RAK58A)

WASHINGTON (AP) Global warming could worsen smog and stretch what typically is a summer pollution problem into thspring and fall, government scientists predicted Thursday.

Smog is most likely to get worse in the Northeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic regions of the country, where numerouscounties and cities are already struggling to clean up the air, according to a draft analysis by the Environmental ProtectionAgency.

But in Texas and Southern California, already among the smoggiest areas in the country, the science is unclear, even conflictingSmog there could get slightly better or become more severe, the analysis said.

Nonetheless, researchers said state officials should be factoring in the impact of global warming as they make plans to try toreduce smog, calling it a "climate penalty."

"These findings also indicate, that, where climate-change-induced increases in (smog) do occur, damaging effects on ecosystemagriculture, and health will be especially pronounced, due to increases in the frequency of extreme pollution events," the analysconcluded. However, the prediction came with a caveat: the researchers did not take into account efforts to reduce smog that arealready under way because of stricter environmental regulations.

EPA stressed that the document did not represent the agency's policies or position on global warming. On Friday, the agency is

scheduled to officially respond to a Supreme Court ruling that said greenhouse gases could be regulated under the Clean Air Acif they pose a risk to human health or welfare.

The Bush administration has resisted linking global warming to public health problems.

The ill-effects of smog, however, have been long been recognized. Smog is formed when nitrogen oxides and volatile organiccompounds released from cars, industry and plants mix in sunlight. It can irritate the respiratory system, reduce lung capacity anaggravate asthma. Global warming would make smog worse because it would cause plants to release more smog-formingorganic compounds and spark more lightning storms, which create nitrogen oxides naturally.

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Warming = Environmental

Damage


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Government won't do anything to effect climate now

Washington Post, 7/11/2008 (EPA Won't Act on Emissions This Year, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071003087.html?hpid=topnews&sub=AR&sid=ST2008071100041&pos=)

The Bush administration has decided not to take any new steps to regulate greenhouse gas emissions before the president leaveoffice, despite pressure from the Supreme Court and broad accord among senior federal officials that new regulation isappropriate now.The Environmental Protection Agency plans to announce today that it will seek months of further public comment on the threat

posed by global warming to human health and welfare -- a matter that federal climate experts and international scientists haverepeatedly said should be urgently addressed.

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No Government Action on Climate

Now


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USFG is doing all it can to stop climate policy now


To defer compliance with the Supreme Court's demand, the White House has walked a tortured policy path, editing its officialscongressional testimony, refusing to read documents prepared by career employees and approved by top appointees, requestingchanges in computer models to lower estimates of the benefits of curbing carbon dioxide, and pushing narrowly draftedlegislation on fuel-economy standards that officials said was meant to sap public interest in wider regulatory action.The decision to solicit further comment overrides the EPA's written recommendation from December. Officials said a few senioWhite House officials were unwilling to allow the EPA to state officially that global warming harms human welfare. Doing sowould legally trigger sweeping regulatory requirements under the 45-year-old Clean Air Act, one of the pillars of U.S.environmental protection, and would cost utilities, automakers and others billions of dollars while also bringing economic

benefits, EPA's analyses found.

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US Acting Now on

Climate


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Carbon reduction costs billions


Career EPA officials argued that the global benefits of reducing carbon are worth at least $40 per ton, but Bush appointeeschanged the final document to say the figure is just an example, not an official estimate. They prohibited the agency fromsubmitting a 21-page document titled "Technical Support Document on Benefits of Reducing GHG Emissions" as part of todayannouncement.

"The administration didn't want to show a high-dollar value for reducing carbon," said one EPA official, adding that theadministration cut dozens of pages from a draft that outlined cost-effective ways to reduce greenhouse gases.

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Carbon Emission Reduction Cost

Billions


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Regulations are inevitable - perception DAs should have been triggeredWashington Post, 7/11/2008 (EPA Won't Act on Emissions This Year, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071003087.html?hpid=topnews&sub=AR&sid=ST2008071100041&pos=)

The proposal that the EPA will unveil today, known as an advance notice of proposed rulemaking, stands in stark contrast to theagency's original Dec. 5 finding -- backed up by a lengthy scientific analysis -- that global warming is unequivocal, that there is"compelling and robust" evidence that the emissions endanger public welfare and that the EPA administrator is "required by lawto act to protect Americans from future harm.

That finding appeared in a 37-page document prepared by an EPA task force of 60 to 70 people that was discussed at dozens ofinteragency meetings led by Susan Dudley, the head of the OMB's regulatory review office. She "understood that someregulation was inevitable," a participant in these meetings said, particularly since Bush promised, a month after the April 2007Supreme Court ruling, to "take the first steps toward regulations" to curb emissions by the end of last year.

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Environmental Regs

Inevitable


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Warming leads to reef coral extinction, damaging the global economy and threatening the lives of millions

Bloomberg, 7/10/2008(Reef Corals Face Extinction Due to Global Warming, Over-Fishing, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a2UEl1WOcKnM&refer=australia)

``When we began this process, we didn't think it would be anywhere near as high as that,'' Livingstone, also a marine species assessor for the International Union for Conservation of Nature, said yesterday in a

telephone interview. `Climate change is the overarching threat which comes in on a much larger, global scale ,''adding to localized disturbances, she said.

The fate of corals is crucial to the livelihoods of millions of coastal dwellers around the world. Reefs are worth about $30

billion a year to the global economy , through tourism, fisheries and coastal protection, according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a United-Nations supervised stupublished in 2005.

Corals build reefs by secreting exoskeletons of calcium carbonate that accumulate over hundreds of years. The corals have a symbiotic relationship with

zooxanthellae, single-celled algae that shelter in their tissues and provide the reef-building organisms with nutrition and energy,enabling faster growth.Ìrreversible Declines'

Warmer temperatures, disease and pollution cause corals to expel the zooxanthellae. Because the algae are the source of the corals' bright color

when they are rejected, it is known as bleaching, and it makes corals more likely to die.

`Ìf bleaching events become very frequent, many species may be unable to re-establish breeding

populations before subsequent bleaching causes potentially irreversible declines,'' the scientists wrote. Ìcorals cannot adapt, the cascading effects of the functional loss of reef ecosystems will threaten the

geologic structure of reefs and their coastal protection function, and have huge economic effects on

food security for hundreds of millions of people dependent on reef fish.''The Caribbean and western Pacific were identified by the researchers as the areas where most corals are threatened.Corals are undermined by the buildup of silt, and run-off of nutrients from fertilizers into the sea, which creates surface algal blooms. Both processes block light from reaching the zooxanthellae. Over-fishing canchange the balance of the food chain by removing large herbivores, and some reefs are destroyed to make wa y for coastal development.

Stresses

While the best way to help preserve corals is to cut the emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for risingtemperatures, tackling local threats by tightening regulations on fishing, coastal building and marine protection will reduce stress to corals, Livingstone s aid.`Òne of the big problems is these localized disturbances from human activities in conjunction with climate change,'' Livingstone said. `They are much more resistant and able to adapt if there are no other stresseacting on them.''

Warming threatens oceanic collapse

The Times of India, 7/11/2008(Warming spells trouble for fish, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Earth/Warming_trouble_for_fish/articleshow/3223175.cms)

NEW YORK: The effect ofclimate change on oceans throughout the world will have serious consequences for hundreds of millions

people who depend on fishing for their livelihoods, the United Nations said on Friday.

Changes in sea temperatures brought in as a result of warming also alters the body temperatures of aquatic species

thereby affecting their metabolism, growth rate, reproduction and susceptibility to diseases andtoxins, the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) said. Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as th

El Nino phenomenon in the South Pacific, the warming of oceans and movement of warmer-water species towards the North and South Poles are some of the visible effects of

climate change, the FAO said, expressing concern for the fishery industry during a seminar on climate change and marine fisheries in Rome. There has also been an

increase in salinity in near-surface waters in warmer regions, while increased precipitation and melting of ice in cooler areas facilitate the oppo

In addition, the oceans are becoming more acidic with probable negative consequences for coral reef and

other calcium-bearing organisms, FAO said. Fishing communities in higher altitudes, as well as those relying on coral reef systems, will be

most exposed to the impact of climate change , the UN food agency said, adding that fisheries in deltas and ice-dominated

coasts will be more vulnerable to flooding and erosion due to rise in sea level .

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Warming Kills

Oceans/Reefs


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G8 warming program fails - vague and no plan of inaction

The New York Times, 7/10/2008 (Global Warming Talks Leave Few Concrete Goals,http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/science/earth/10assess.html?hp)

President Bush, who had insisted that any commitment to combat global warming must involve growing economies as well asthe rich nations, recruited China and India to the table and received rare accolades from some environmentalists for doing so.

The developing countries received a promise that the rich countries would take the lead in curbing emissions. Andenvironmentalists said the agreements renewed chances of reviving two ailing climate pacts, the 1992 United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

But behind the congratulatory speeches on Wednesday, some experts said, was a more sobering reality. The documents issued bthe participating countries had very few of the concrete goals needed to keep greenhouse gases from growing at their torrid pacthey said.

The statement issued by the industrialized Group of 8 pledged to move toward a carbon-free society by seeking to cutworldwide emissions of heat-trapping gases in half by 2050. But the statement did not say whether that baseline would beemissions at 1990 levels, or the less ambitious baseline of current levels, already 25 percent higher.

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G8 Climate Program

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Emissions reduction alone doesn't solve - lasting effects

The New York Times, 7/10/2008 (Global Warming Talks Leave Few Concrete Goals,http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/science/earth/10assess.html?hp)

Cutting emissions in half is just the first step in curtailing warming, climate experts have long said, because the main greenhousgas generated by human activities, carbon dioxide, can persist for a century or more in the atmosphere, once it is released. Thatmeans that later in the century, emissions must drop nearly to zero, or large-scale techniques must be developed to pull carbondioxide directly from the atmosphere.

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Emissions Reduction Doesnt

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***Doha/Bilateral

Trade***


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Now is key for DOHA, the U.S.'s willingness to grant trade concessions, especially on Brazil is key to their

effectiveness.

[Lynn, July 11 2008, Jonathan, Reuters Reporter, WTO issues new farm, industry texts for Doha round,http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN127425.html]

"These revised texts set the stage for a decisive moment in the Doha round," WTO Director-General Pascal Lamysaid.

"A deal to open trade in agriculture and goods means more growth, better prospects for development and a morestable and predictable trading system. We must not let this opportunity slip through our fingers," he said in astatement.

Lamy, a former European Union trade chief, called the make-or-break meeting, which is the last opportunity to

reach a deal before change in the U.S. administration in January 2009 that could see the talks put on ice for years.

In Brussels, the European Commission said on Thursday it welcomed positive steps made in the new negotiatingtexts but said that "important gaps" still needed to be bridged.

"We are committed to this negotiation, but we need serious efforts from our negotiating partners to reach abalanced agreement," a spokesman for European Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson said in a statement.

In Washington, US trade representative spokeswoman Gretchen Hamel said that the Bush administration would breviewing the texts in coming days.

But the United States said it was time leading developing countries made market-opening offers "commensuratewith their increasing participation and role in the world economy."

Both mediators, New Zealand's WTO ambassador Crawford Falconer for agriculture, and Canadian ambassadorDon Stephenson for industry, told reporters they hoped to narrow the gaps further next week before ministersarrive.

Falconer said he was confident agreement could be reached reconciling the interests of tropical product exportersin Latin America with less developed growers in African, Caribbean and Pacific countries seeking to maintain thepreferential access to the European Union.

Brazil, one of the world's leading agricultural producers and a major player in the trade talks, voiced misgivingsabout the new texts.

"The WTO papers will only produce a deal if the rich countries improve their offer, showing leadership andreducing trade barriers," said Roberto Azevedo, Brazil's chief trade negotiator.

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Now is key a deal must be made to retard protectionist measures, if the U.S. Removes protections on its

farmers the deal will go through and acess to markets will increase.

[Lynn, July 11 2008, Jonathan, Reuters Reporter, WTO issues new farm, industry texts for Doha round,

http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN127425.html]

Trade experts say a deal is needed to counter rising protectionist pressures that threaten prosperity, and would be ashot in the arm for the ailing world economy.

The aim is to rewrite the rules of world trade, last codified in 1994, for the 21st century and remove distortions thdeveloping countries say put them at a disadvantage.

Agreement on agriculture and industrial goods -- the most sensitive chapters -- could open the way for deals inother areas such as services like banking and telecoms as well as trade rules on subsidies and unfairly pricedimports.

A deal would see rich countries like the United States, Japan and the EU's members open up their food markets byreducing protection for their farmers.

In return they will get greater access to developing country markets for industrial goods and services, especially inemerging nations like India, Brazil, China and South Africa.

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Agricultural tariff's key to Doha.

[Lynn, July 11 2008, Jonathan, Reuters Reporter, WTO issues new farm, industry texts for Doha round,http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN127425.html]

The texts issued by mediators on Thursday made no changes to current proposed ranges for tariff and subsidy cutsfor both agriculture and industrial goods -- a political decision that only ministers can take.

The new farm text set a tariff cap of 100 percent for developed countries -- a key demand of poor countries -- aspart of complex technical arrangements, still under negotiation, of how countries shield sensitive farm productsfrom tariff cuts.

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Multilateralism is bad, discriminates against smaller countries, and leads to large blocs of developped

countries controlling all global trade.

[Rohee, 2004, Clement J., Minister of Foreign Trade and International Cooperation of Guyana, Multilateralism atthe Crossroads, May 25, http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/symp04_paper_rohee_e.do]

Mr. Chairman, the challenge that I will be addressing today focuses on the issue of Multilateralism. I am referringto a multilateralism that is so often tainted as the growth of mega-trading blocs dominated by large developedcountries. It inevitably serves to discriminate against those countries that are not in a position to negotiate the typeof preferential access that they need to survive and which inevitably become marginalized in a world where poweoverrides rules and fair play. For many developing countries therefore, multilateralism equals discrimination whicin turn equals marginalization. It is perhaps the most serious challenge facing us all today in our collective questfor ordered global development.

The WTO is in the throes of this debate with some of our members becoming fatalistic and subscribing to the viewthat there is little the WTO can do to circumscribe the growth of the power of the rich particularly when this isbeing accumulated at the expense of the less powerful and the less developed. These are the so called realistswho see the underlying matrix of world power as heavily skewed and cast against genuine multilateralism.

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What is needed now is a new form of multilateralism, the plan is such an example, that attempts to

incorporate the interests of developing countries into the global multilateral regime.

[Rohee, 2004, Clement J., Minister of Foreign Trade and International Cooperation of Guyana, Multilateralism atthe Crossroads, May 25-27, http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/symp04_paper_rohee_e.doc]

I believe it can. I do not interpret the failures in Seattle or the setbacks in Cancun as a reflection of lost hope inmultilateralism. On the contrary, I believe that we are witnessing the emergence of a new multilateralism albeitwith birth pangs, and it is in this sense I speak of a multilateralism at crossroads today. The challenge ofsuccessfully integrating the developing countries into the multilateral system is without doubt very demanding anfraught with risks. Controlling unfettered unilateralism, and in so doing promoting new multilateral rules is at theheart of this challenge.

The multilateralism of the past, with only one package or set of economic policy prescriptions for the global

trading system consistent with the Washington Consensus, has not managed for the most part to lift mostdeveloping countries economic status. What such multilateralism has done has been to widen the wealth gapbetween developed and most developing countries, and contributed to a continuing decline in the long-termdevelopment prospects of the latter.

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Brazil-U.S. Relations are key to solving multilateralism, their coopeation becomes the basis for the new

multilateralism.


Mr. Chairman, leadership with a vision of a fair, balanced and equitable order is indeed a critical factor in thisendeavour. It is emerging slowly as the new geopolitical and economic realties force us all to see the commoninterests in harnessing the benefits of globalization. Today, effective multilateralism depends on the beneficialinteraction of key developed and developing countries. They alone can provide the constructive leadership in anew and pragmatic coalition of the willing'. This is the imperative that came out of Cancun that really responds tthe new dynamic. It will bridge the current North-South divide and unleash forces with stronger interests inmultilateralism.

It is not wishful thinking to view these possibilities. Events in the wider world, such as the war on terrorism, thewar in Iraq and generally the problems of managing the global commons, all seem to point to the advantages ofmultilateralism over unilateralism.

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Cooperation with developing countries such as Brazil is necessary to prevent the protectionist regimes

associated with trade blocks.


The scenario that is generally offered is a world dominated by three large blocks. An East Asian trade blockrevolving around China will most likely emerge more rapidly, taking its place alongside US-led and EU-led blockThese three mega-blocks will all be interlinked by a plethora of cross-regional, bilateral and plurilateral FTAs. Oncan just imagine the discriminating and protectionist tendencies that such a world would secrete.

I dread therefore, to contemplate the implications of a WTO-failure for the world. As a region comprising largelysmall economies heavily dependent on trade and investment from the rest of the world, the Caribbean has a long-term stake in a WTO that delivers stability and predictability to freer trade. Free trade agreements (FTA) are simp

not enough.

Small economies including many small island developing countries (SIDS) would have difficulty surviving in aworld of bilateralism. Like many LDCs, they also cannot meet the full obligations being demanded of them in thicurrent round.

The Doha Development Agenda is crucial for bolstering international economic growth, and assisting developingcountries to integrate into the global economy. So it is important that we succeed, and this is why all countries havworked hard for a substantive resumption of WTO talks and are pushing hard for progress on the outstandingissues.

The WTO, Mr. Chairman cannot continue to have residual importance, for its days as a vehicle for tradeliberalization will be surely numbered. Regional and bilateral trade policy agendas must therefore be placed undera well-functioning multilateral rules-based trading system.

Silva slams U.S. tariff on Brazil ethanol ahead of Bush visit

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Tariff Negotiations are key to U.S.-Brazil cooperation on Chavez. As long as the tariff exists no progress can

be made on Chavez.

[AP, 2007, Silva slams U.S. tariff on Brazil ethanol ahead of Bush visit, March 5,

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/05/business/LA-FIN-Brazil-US-Ethanol.php]

SAO PAULO, Brazil: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Monday that a U.S. tariff on Brazilianethanol does not make sense and that he will complain about it to U.S. President George W. Bush when theAmerican leader visits Brazil later this week.

Silva also said he does not think it is appropriate for him to talk with Bush about the socialist Venezuelan PresidenHugo Chavez, even though Bush's trip to Latin America is widely viewed by analysts and Brazil's media as anattempt to neutralize Chavez' influence in the region.

"I don't believe there's room for us to discuss problems of other countries," he said.

Bush and Silva on Friday are expected to forge an "ethanol alliance" aimed at creating quality standards for thealternative fuel, while joining forces to promote production of ethanol in nations lying between Brazil and theUnited States.

But the United States' US$0.54 (.41) per gallon tariff on Brazilian ethanol makes the sugarcane-based fuel moreexpensive in America, and means that American corn that could be used for animal feed is being diverted toproduce ethanol, Silva said. The United States and Brazil are the planet's biggest ethanol producers, and Brazil isthe largest exporter.

- 26
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/05/business/LA-FIN-Brazil-US-Ethanol.phphttp://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/05/business/LA-FIN-Brazil-US-Ethanol.php


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- 27

***Coal/Natural

Gas***


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Coal prices are fluctuating and are rebounding from the drop

Forbes.comThomson Financial News. 07.11.08,http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/07/10/afx5204001.html

JAKARTA (Thomson Financial) - Indonesian shares were little changed in early trade on Friday, with losses in coal miners following a drop in coaprices holding back the market from rebounding from recent slumps.

Broadermarket sentiment was also undermined by the overnight rebound in oil prices.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery soared $5.60 to $141.65 a barrel on theNew York MercantileExchange on Thursday. It was crude's largest daily leap since June 6, when the July contract jumpedb$10.75 a barrel.

'The market moved very little in early trade as players were cautious after the oil price bounced backyesterday,' Reliance Securities analyst Jasa Adhi Mulya said.

Selling pressure hit oil and coal miners' shares, trimming the index's overall gains contributed by otheminor sectors and banking stocks.

At 10:13 a.m. (0313 GMT), the composite index was up 2.36 points or 0.1 percent at 2,278.59.

- 28

Coal Rebouding/Fluctuations

now
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China/India are shifting to cheaper quality coal

Rueters. Jul 11, 2008. China chases ultra low quality, cheap coal.http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINL1035414620080711

LONDON/SHANGHAI, July 11 (Reuters) - Coal end-users in China and India have given up waiting for standard qualityprices to fall -- instead seeking extremely low quality coal which matches their target prices, tradersand producers said.

Chinese demand for spot Indonesian coal has risen during the past two weeks because large and smalutilities are building stocks ahead of the August Olympic Games in Beijing, they said.

Many small Chinese coal mines have been shut down recently as part of a government drive to improvesafety in the coal industry. In 2007 3,786 people died in coal mining accidents.

Mine closures and strong domestic demand have exacerbated coal shortages at power plants in ChinaIn a bid to minimise power cuts during the Olympics, more imported coal is being sought, traders said.

- 29

China/India Demand

Shifting
http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINL1035414620080711http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINL1035414620080711http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINL1035414620080711


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Chinas facing a supply crunch now.

Wan Zhihong (China Daily) 2008-07-09.http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-07/09/content_6830332.htm. Supply crunch hitscoal cradle

Shanxi province, which produces one-fourth of China's coal, has witnessed approximately 5,000 mWof power shortages, the highest level recorded in recent years. The province is currently facing a power shortage, which has reachedhigh as 4,600 mW. The power shortage has adversely affected the economy, said the provincial electricity regulator. The province has aninstalled power capacity of 34,340 mW. However, power genertors with capacity of 3,500 mW halted production because of coal shortage, accounting for 15.2 percent, said the

regulator. "The tense situation caused by the coal supply and the rise in coal price has had a big impact on

the province's power companies," said Li Fulong, director of the provincial price bureau. According to Shanxi Province Electric Power Association (SEPA),this year coal production in the province will reach 680 million tons, up 9 percent compared with a year earlier. However, it still cannot catch up with the development of downstream

business, such as power generation.

Coal companies in Shanxi have all increased their product prices this year. In the first quarter, the average coal price for theprovince's five leading companies stood at 377 yuan ($54.94) per ton, an increase of 13 percent compared with a year earlier, according to local statistics.

- 30

Uniqueness: Supply Crunch Now

China
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China Daily, China.http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-07/11/content_6837620.htm .2008-07-11

Coal exports soared 83.5 percent year-on-year in June to 6.99 million tonnes, the highest monthlytotal since March 2005, the General Administration of Customs said on Thursday.

Analysts said the surge likely reflected a widening gap between higher world prices and domestic prices,which are capped by the government. The gap was about $54.70 per tonne in the week ended on July 4, the China Business News reported on Thursday

Rising exports would exacerbate shortages at coal-fired power plants, which were striving to ensureelectricity for the Olympics and reconstruction from the May 12 quake, analysts said.

Toprotect power plants' profits, the government has imposed temporary controls on the factory pricesof thermal coal, capping them at the price that prevailed on June 19, which is effective through the end of the year.

Coal exports totaled 25.49 million tonnes in the first half of 2008, up 10.2 percent year-on-year, according to theadministration.

- 31

China Coal Imports

High
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Finance.Cz 08July2008 - NWR continues retreat on lower coal prices.http://www.finance.cz/zpravy/finance/177955-stocks-news-emerging-europe-nwr-drops-on-lower-coal-price/

Czech coal miner New World Resources (NWR) falls more than 4 percent in early tradenearing levels last seen following its May public

offering aftera drop in commodity prices . The stock underperforms a rising Prague market but gainback some early losses to trade 1.8 percent lower at 450 crowns, while the main PX index rises 1.69 percent.

NWR

shares closely track coal prices, and now trade close to their closing level of 445 crownson May 6,

when the miner first listed in London and Prague. The stock had traded as much as 40 percent above its May 6 close in mid-June.

- 32

Prices Falling Czech

Republic
http://www.finance.cz/zpravy/finance/177955-stocks-news-emerging-europe-nwr-drops-on-lower-coal-price/http://www.finance.cz/zpravy/finance/177955-stocks-news-emerging-europe-nwr-drops-on-lower-coal-price/http://www.finance.cz/zpravy/finance/177955-stocks-news-emerging-europe-nwr-drops-on-lower-coal-price/


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Demand for LNG will increase and Iran will not fill in

Redorbit.com Thursday, 10 July 2008, Iranian Impasse Indicative of LNG Exposure to Rising PoliticalRiskhttp://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/

Sonatrach has claimed that the global market for LNG will double by 2016. While this has a sharpresonance with previous predictions by the IEA, the meteoric rise of LNG is fast becoming weigheddown by the same forces afflicting conventional hydrocarbon production; namely heightened levels o

political risk and spiraling costs in upstream development as the latest developments in Tehran attest.

Although media coverage has foreseen a major rise in LNG as the Atlantic and Pacific Basins race tobuild regasification capacity, it has repeatedly overlooked potential supply-side risks. In the past two-and-a-halfyears, a measly 19 million tonnes of LNG capacity has been sanctioned , with only three new projects approved in 2007.

The key stumbling block is that final investment decisions are becoming increasingly difficult toconclude, not least because LNG suppliers are keen to extract optimal contractual positions fromforeign companies. Iran will find it difficult to develop LNG from the South Pars field in light ofexternal sanctions on the one hand and internal wrangling over contractual terms with Royal Dutch Shell and Repsol the other. The fact that Total has now pulled back from developing Phase 11 of the South Pars field following missile tests by Tehran, underlines the pronounced role political risk can

play in deterring LNG investments in the bluntest sense

- 33

LNG Crisis Now :

Iran
http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/


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Theres a huge energy crisis coming now supply side risks

Redorbit.com Thursday, 10 July 2008, Iranian Impasse Indicative of LNG Exposure to Rising PoliticalRiskhttp://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/

In sub-Saharan Africa, LNG progress has been made in Angola, while in West Africa, NigerianPresident Yar'Adua has been busy courting investment in the Nigerian gas sector. However, much ofthe proposed increase in output has already been earmarked for domestic supply by Lagos, making it

less attractive proposition for oil and gas companieswilling to navigate the considerable country risk involved.

Even Qatar, currently the world's largest LNG exporter with 17% of the world market, is having to divemore of its gas to feed the domestic and Middle Eastern markets, and has placed a moratorium on newgas export projects after 2010. Similar difficulties are appearing in Egypt, which recorded a 4.6% drop in LNG exports in 2007 compared to 2006 levels, amicontractual disputes with foreign companies on commercial terms and growing pressures to meet domestic demand. Although Yemen is well placed to get LNG onto the market, its

reserves are fast depleting, making it a short-term player rather than a long-term heavy weightcompared to the likes of Saudi Arabia and Iraq over the next 20 years in LNG markets .

With very few suppliers gearing up to fill potential LNG gaps, the outlook is not particularlyencouraging in the medium term. LNG will certainly continue to gather pace over the next decade, bu

whether it can double output by 2016 will critically depend on getting the politics right. A 'supplycrunch' might not be as far fetched as once thought, particularly as the politics of LNG are starting tomirror the fundamental political misalignment in the oil markets, drawing supply-demand fundamentals ever closer. No doubtregasification terminals will continue to be built apace, but whether ships will always come in looksincreasingly doubtful.

- 34

LNG Crisis Now:

Iran
http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1471547/iranian_impasse_indicative_of_lng_exposure_to_rising_political_risk/


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US LNG demand will increase

Bloomberg News. July 8, 2008, 4:32PM.http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5877203.html . Energy Dept. says U.S. LNG imports falling

U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas may fall 38 percent this year as demand remains strong in Asiaand Europe and projects are delayed, the Energy Departmentsaid today.

U.S. LNG imports this year may total about 480 billion cubic feet, down from 770 billion cubic feet in2007, the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook said. The department last month estimated 2008 LNG imports would total about 530 billioncubic feet, a decline of 31 percent.

The volume may climb to 790 billion cubic feet in 2009 as new supply enters the global market, thedepartment said. This is down from June estimates of 850 billion cubic feet. Imports in the first half of 2008 were 60 percent below those of a year earlier.

The flow of LNG into the U.S. is averaging about 1.1 billion cubic feet a day so far this month, down from 3.1 billion cubic feet a day a year ago, Stacy Nieuwoudt, an analyst at TudPickering, Holt & Co. in Houston, said in a note today.

- 35

US LNG Demand

Increasing
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5877203.htmlhttp://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5877203.htmlhttp://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5877203.html


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US LNG demand is falling

Tony Gray Lloyd's List, UK - Jul 9, 2008 US lowers forecasted LNG imports for next two years. http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/us-lowers-forecasted-lng-imports-for-next-two-years/20017550872.htm

THEUS Energy Information Administration has again lowered its forecast for the nations liquefiednatural gas imports in the current year as cargoes continue to flow to higher priced markets. And the EIA hasalso reduced its estimate of imports in 2009.

- 36

US LNG Demand

Falling
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US LNG industry is weak now and will fail due to federal inefficiency

Ken Silverstein, EnergyBiz Insider Editor-in-Chief Energy Central, CO - Jul 8, 2008.http://www.energycentral.com/centers/energybiz/ebi_detail.cfm?id=526

Energy prices may be going through the roof. But some plans to add capacity by building liquefiednatural gas (LNG) facilities are being driven under.

Will those efforts thwart America's attempt to expand its energy arsenal? Global markets for LNG areescalating, necessitating more investment in production, transportation and re-gasification. The industry isattracting billions from top tier players that weigh their investment decisions. Risks abound. But theoverwhelming demand for new natural gas supplies appears to trump other considerations.

"On the siting side, the NIMBY issues are so difficult," says Catherine Little, partner in the international law firm of Hunton & Williams in Atlanta. "We haveincreasing tensions in this area. I see these things as getting more and more heightened. To work out these issueswill have to be done out on a site-by-site basis."

At present, five LNG import facilities exist in the United States and one in Puerto Rico. Roughly 40 new re-gasification plants have been approved by U.S. regulators, although no more than a dozen will be constructed. Most of those will get buin the south. Moreover, the additional plants planned for the region would be strategically placed near the Gulf of Mexico as well as key pipelines.

Sempra LNG, for instance, embarked on its first LNG endeavor in late 2000 in Baja California, Mexico. Sempra LNG's West Coast project, Energia Costa Azul was completed in thefirst quarter of 2008, while Cameron LNG construction is slated for completion in Louisiana in late 2008. Sempra LNG's Texas project, Port Arthur LNG, is permitted but noconstruction start date has been set.

But winning the necessary permits is no easy task. To do so requires more than 40 approvals fromboth state and federal agencies. At the federal level, U.S. lawmakers have determined that more LNGprojects are a must and as such, have directed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission tostreamline siting protocol. Delays may be in the offing. But FERC says that any interruptions are not

because of it. In the end, developers must work with all stakeholders and show that the projects arefinancially viable.

- 37

US LNG Industry Screwed

Now
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Environmental and political concerns hurt the LNG industry, however it will succeed in being awesome

Ken Silverstein, EnergyBiz Insider Editor-in-Chief Energy Central, CO - Jul 8, 2008.http://www.energycentral.com/centers/energybiz/ebi_detail.cfm?id=526

Those tensions are now being felt in Baltimore. Federal regulators had previously given an LNGproject proposed by AES Corp. tentative approval -- a deal which also won the backing of the region'labor movement that would be the beneficiary of 375 new jobs. At a recent hearing there beforeFERC, however, local officials and community organizers said that the facility would be unsafe and

environmentally unsound.

Meanwhile, a ConocoPhillips subsidiary has withdrawn its requests to build an LNG plan at the Port of Long Beach in California. Sound Energy Solutions said that its $750 millioninvestment would have provided southern residents with a rich vein by which to receive its natural gas. Similarly, consumer organizations have stopped a division of Shell andTransCanada from constructing an LNG facility in Long Island Sound. Broadwater Energy, the unit in question, vows to fight on.

"Truly, if there is credit for this victory, it belongs to you," says Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, at a press event sponsored by a group that wants to preserve LongIsland Sound. The attorney general says that he expects the fight to continue but cautioned citizens of New York and Connecticut to keep their guards up and not to let win "two bigcompanies who sought to profit at your expense."

While those consumer groups raise valid issues, the underlying market fundamentals have not changed. That is, the United States expects the demand for energy to keep rising andcurrent natural gas supply levels are inadequate to meet that challenge. Precisely, the nation produces 83 percent of its own natural gas and it imports roughly 14 percent from Canada

Not only is demand increasing but Canadian supplies are dipping. Therefore, unconventional natural gas fuel such as LNG or shale sources are paramount.

Ultimately, more projects will get built not just here but around the globe. It's the free market at work: ScottishConsultancy Wood Mackenzie says that worldwide LNG demand will triple by 2020. It is predictingconsumption will blossom from 7 trillion cubic feet a year now to 25 trillion cubic feet a year in thattime frame. By extension, the United States is preparing for that growth.

Toward that end, Northwest Natural Gas in Portland, Ore. has long advocated using LNG as a way to supplement the gas resources it now gets from Canada and the Rocky MountainThe company has formed a joint venture with TransCanada to build a 211-mile pipeline to serve a proposed LNG terminal in the state. The LNG debate "may not be the best for ourreputation in the short term," says Gregg Kantor, head of Northwest Natural Gas. "But we have an obligation to tell the story as we see it."

Many regulators are persuaded. But community activists are a tough sell. The nation then walks the dual course of trying to keepenvironmental sanity while at the same time meeting the future demand for energy. While theconcerns raised must be addressed, the bias is toward using more LNG

- 38

US LNG Industry not screwed

now
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McCain likes clean coal and lower taxes!

Walt Williams.July 9 .http://wowktv.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=41016

- 39

McCain likes Clean

Coal
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Coal reserves will be depleted by 2050

DennisNdaba Mining Weekly Published on 11th July 2008 .http://www.miningweekly.com/article.php?a_id=137295

The rate at which South Africas coal is being mined is unsus- tainable, and all known reserves will bedepleted by 2050, says Bench Marks Foundation chief researcher David van Wyk.

Within one generation, we will not only have consumed the entire resource but we will also havedestroyed the environment, along with . . . our ability to produce food. We need to find alternative sources of energy, to reduceenergy consumption and to guard against destroying our agricultural capacity, says Van Wyk.

Wood Mackenzie senior coal industry analyst and consultant Xavier Prevost tells Mining Weekly alcoal reserves will be depleted 50 years from now, but points out that this does not mean that coal-mining will cease.

- 40

Coal Reserves will be deplated

2050
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Clean coal is an important elections issue

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH 7-10-2008http://dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/07/10/ohio_coal.html?sid=101July 10, 2008

As Barack Obama returns to Ohio Friday to discuss energy security, the presidential campaigns are arguingabout a major piece of the energy picture in the Buckeye State: coal.

John McCain, who campaigned Wednesday in coal-rich southern Ohio, has been saying that Obama wantsto tax coal, and his supporters have said Obama doesn't back development of so-called clean-coaltechnology.

Barack Obama is not for clean coal, Ohio House Speaker Jon Husted, R-Kettering, said this week at a Columbus news conference arrangedby the McCain campaign.

But Obama's campaign called those comments dishonest and laughable, insisting that as a senator from coal-producing Illinois, Obama has a long record of supportingclean coal and that the charge about taxing coal is a distortion.

In fact, both senators call for a cap-and-trade system that would limit emissions and allowpower plants to buy rights to exceed those limits as a way to discourage pollution and promote alternatives.

Coal matters to ohio voters, its a swing state

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH 7-10-2008http://dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/07/10/ohio_coal.html?sid=101July 10, 2008

Obama also has proposed investing $150 billion over 10 years on clean energy, including low-emissions coal plants.

McCain has proposed investing $2 billion a year for advancing clean-coal technologies.

Coal is huge in Ohio, especially in the critical swing area of Appalachian Ohio. According to the Ohio Coal Association, the staranks third nationally in the consumption of coal, and more than 87 percent of the state's electricity comes from coal. Ohio's coaindustry also directly employs more than 3,000.

McCain's campaign issued a news release this week saying that although McCain supports coal as an essential source ofenergy, Obama and his supporters believe coal is a dirty energy' that ought to be taxed.

Paul Lindsay, McCain's Ohio spokesman, said the charge is based on a Feb. 19 Obama quote in the San Antonio Express-News:What we ought to tax is dirty energy, like coal, and, to a lesser extent, natural gas.

Obama's campaign insists that quote refers to Obama's plan for cap and trade, which would require polluters to pay more anthat if McCain wants to call it a tax, he also supports a tax on coal because he backs a cap-and-trade approach.

But Lindsay questioned why Obama would say tax if he meant cap and trade.

It was Barack Obama who said that words matter, Lindsay said.

- 41

Clean Coal = Elections

issue
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Isaac Baker, Obama's Ohio spokesman, said the facts speak for themselves: Sen. Obama would invest five times more than SeMcCain in securing a new energy future, including clean coal and renewable energy.

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- 43

***McCain Will

Win***


44/128


Obama is barely ahead - conditions are set for a McCain win

Yahoo News 7-10-08 How McCain Could Win

http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080710/cm_rcp/how_mccain_could_win

Yesterday, I laid out the very favorable environment for any Democrat running for President this year. I noted thatthe current Obama lead of 4-5% is very modest, given the structural advantages any Democrat would have in thisyear's race. But there is another way to look at the race: namely that absent some of the unique structural orenvironmental advantages that exist for Democrats this year, John McCain should be running away from BarackObama. While this may sound irrational to some, I believe the key to a McCain victory is to focus his campaignand the voting public on the two candidates themselves -- their life stories, their experiences and accomplishmenttheir visions for the country, and their characters. If the election is decided on these factors, McCain should win.

McCain will win by appealing to moderates - Obama needs to be partisan for funding



While it is likely that McCain will be outspent, and out organized, he should have enough money to get a messageacross, ifit is focused and he stays on script. By accepting federal campaign funding, McCain will also not have tfundraise during the fall campaign, while Obama will likely waste days if not weeks doing this. It is also the casethat fund raising events tend to be very partisan, requiring a candidate to pander to activists. In a general electioncampaign, when a candidate is trying to move to the center to appear moderate and acceptable to more than theparty's base voters (an approach Obama has clearly undertaken of late), a shriller pitch to the base can lead toproblems, as it did for Obama in San Francisco a few months back.

- 44

McCain

Win
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No decisive winner in the election

Schofield 7-10-08 Obama, McCain too close too call

http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/12922

The latest Gallup poll indicates public opinion on the presidential race is about evenly divided. Beyond that, thepoll notes that the number of voters backing the two candidates really hasn't moved much in months. That is aslight, though not deciding, advantage for Barack Obama, who has constitently attracted 46 to 48 percent ofrespondents. Today in the poll, Barack Obama has a slight, 3 percent lead, over John McCain, but the results areclose enough to the poll's margin of error that the race could be almost a dead heat.

- 45

No

Uniqueness
http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/12922http://www.gallup.com/poll/108751/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Retains-Small-Advantage.aspxhttp://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/12922http://www.gallup.com/poll/108751/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Retains-Small-Advantage.aspx


46/128


Obamas voting record is irrelevant



After a string of revelations about two opponents' marital problems, Obama wound up effectively runningunopposed for the US Senate seat (Alan Keyes was the GOP standard-bearer). In the US Senate, Obama missedmany votes in his first term even before he launched his Presidential bid, as he traveled the country speaking toDemocratic Party events (and positioning himself with activists for a future Presidential run). Since the campaignbegan, he has missed virtually all Senate votes and failed to hold meetings of his own subcommittee. So theObama record is very thin. His major campaign themes have been lofty messages of change and hope andbipartisan unity. This is a smart course to take, when you have little to show for your years in public office.McCain needs to focus on Obama's record of scant legislative accomplishment and inexperience. What has BaracObama done, as opposed to claiming to have done?

- 46

A2: Voting Record

Link
http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080710/cm_rcp/how_mccain_could_winhttp://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/realclearpolitics/cm_rcp/storytext/how_mccain_could_win/28190685/SIG=1200t8crd/*htthttp://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/realclearpolitics/cm_rcp/storytext/how_mccain_could_win/28190685/SIG=1200t8crd/*htthttp://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080710/cm_rcp/how_mccain_could_winhttp://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/realclearpolitics/cm_rcp/storytext/how_mccain_could_win/28190685/SIG=1200t8crd/*htt


47/128


Alternative energy is a win for McCain



Finally, there is the energy issue, which is now playing into the hands of the Republicans, if properly handled.Obama and the Democrats say no - to more drilling, and to increased use of nuclear power, and are offering nosolutions to the increase in energy costs, which are proving to be a significant and damaging new burden for mostAmerican families. The Obama approach: to tax more of oil company profits and to end energy futuresspeculation, will not change the growing supply demand imbalance, which is a primary reason for rising energycosts. McCain is supporting more drilling, and more nuclear power, and greater conservation. So McCain is formore supply, and reduced demand. Obama and his Party appear to be looking for villains, not solutions.

- 47

McCain Alt. Energy

Link
http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080710/cm_rcp/how_mccain_could_winhttp://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080710/cm_rcp/how_mccain_could_win


48/128


Obama will peacefully engage Iran

US News and World Report 7-11-08 Political Bulletin

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_080710.htm

Obama Calls For "Direct Negotiations" ABC World News reported Sen. Barack Obama said in reaction to themissile tests, "The United States has to gather up others in the region, as well as internationally, to apply pressureon Iran. But it's very difficult for us to do so when we haven't shown a willingness to engage in the sort of directnegotiations with Iran that would give them carrots and sticks for a change in behavior." The CBS Evening Newsreported Obama "said what is needed is direct diplomacy and the threat of tougher sanctions to persuade Iran todrop its nuclear program."

- 48

A2: Obama Strikes

Iran
http://www.usnews.com/usnew

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