Update and Next StepsGreen Ribbon Committee

September 8, 2010

Adaptation Strategy

Richard M. Daley, Mayor

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Adaptation agenda

Copyright 2010, City of Chicago

• Review of impacts research

Overview of climate impacts on Chicago: Temperature, Precipitation, Water Systems, Ecosystems, Health, Infrastructure

• Approach

• Next Steps

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Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.

Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, 2010 predictions show that the Midwest could experience 45-85 days over 95° Fahrenheit by the end of the century, far more than the 31 days projected in 2007

Temperature: A warmer Chicago

Chicago Metropolitan Area Annual Average TemperaturesObservations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios

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Midwest Seasonal Precipitation EventsProjections under High Emissions Scenario

2010-2039 2040-2069 2040-2069

Winters and Springs

Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, 2040 springs could have 20% more precipitation events and summers could have 10% fewer

Precipitation: Wet winters & springs and dry summers

Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.

Summers

% changes relative to a 1961-1990 average

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Great Lake Water LevelsObservations and projections under High Emissions Scenario

Facts: - In a high-emissions scenario, Great Lake Water levels could remain constant due to a balance between increased precipitation and evaporation. However, by 2020, evaporation could surpass precipitation, thus decreasing Lake levels- Lake Michigan water levels could decline by 1.5 feet by the end of the century

Water systems: Changing Great Lake water levels

Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.

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Source: Hayhoe. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009.

Ecosystems: Changing Plant Hardiness Zones

Midwest Changes in Plant Hardiness ZonesObservations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios

Facts: - From 1990-2006, Northern IL shifted from Plant Hardiness Zone 5 to 6, representing a 10° Fahrenheit range change in the lowest temperature of the year - In a high-emissions scenario, Midwest Plant Hardiness Zones could shift 1 full zone every 30 years

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Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, Chicago could experience 1,200 heat-related deaths per year by 2085

Health: Increasing heat-related risks

Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.

Chicago Metropolitan Area Heat-Related DeathsObservations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios

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Infrastructure: Increasing need for resources

Chicago Metropolitan Area ComEd Territory Electricity DemandProjections under High Emissions Scenario

Fact: In a high emissions scenario, Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd) Chicago electricity demand could increase by 2.2% by end of century relative to 2000-2005 consumption

Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.

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• Research

• Approach

Continuous improvement of our work on Adaptation

• Next Steps

Adaptation agenda

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Drive adaptation actions at the municipal government level

Leverage existing City processes and plans to serve

adaptation goals

Prioritize most at-risk communities

Balance the need for more research with the need to act

Enhance collateral benefits of mitigation

Chicago’s Adaptation drivers

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Our Adaptation work has evolved over time

2007 2008 2009 2010

• Understood the climate science: High & low emissions climate projections and potential impacts

• Assessed economic risk: Municipal cost of doing nothing projected to be $2.54 billion under a high-emissions scenario

• Developed adaptation action framework: Prioritizing adaptation actions by risk & urgency

• Created 5 working groups: 15 City Departments & 6 sister Agencies create 39 “Adaptation Tactics” for 5 working groups (Extreme Precipitation, Extreme Heat, Infrastructure, Ecosystems, Communications/ Leadership/ Planning)

• Launched Chicago Climate Action Plan: Mayor launches CCAP in September 2008

• Created department work plans: City Departments commit to implementing adaptation actions through CCAP work plans

• Hosting “Lessons Learned” meetings: Improving responses to extreme weather events

• Forming Adaptation Advisory Group: Will provide guidance and oversight

• Work divided according to three targets of adaptation:

• People• Built environment • Natural

environment (led by Aaron Durnbaugh - DOE)

• Adaptation work pre-dates CCAP launch and Lead-by-Example workplanning process

• Working groups originally created around climate change impacts, now created around targets of adaptation

• Varying levels of working group leadership and progress to date

KeyObservations:

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We are currently preparing for climate change in three ways

Built environment

Natural environment

People

Communication

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Work is being reorganized around the three targets of adaptation

Prepare City staff and Chicagoans to respond to the effects of an altered climate

Prepare our built environment for the effects of an altered climate

B) Built environment

Prepare our ecosystems for an altered climate

C) Natural environmentA) People

Description

Action

Former working groups

Extreme heat (human response only)

Extreme precipitation (human response only)

Public health Communications,

leadership, & planning

Extreme precipitation Extreme heat Stormwater management

(not Green Infrastructure) Buildings, infrastructure,

equipment

Ecosystems

Illustrative Lead-By-Example

Initiatives

Manage Stormwater Install rain-blockers

for sewer intakes (DWM)

Develop watershed plan (MWRD/DOE/DWM)

Install A/C in schools (CPS) Evaluate cooling center

capacity (DOE, CHA)

Plant trees (DSS) Measure the performance

of different species in different environments (DSS, Parks)

Monitor health effects of climate change (CDPH)

Update emergency operations plan for entire City, including warning systems and proactive responses to the health effects of climate change (CDPH)

Create flood plan (OEMC)

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Sample climate change adaptation tasks completed to date (1/2)

Developed cross-organizational Extreme Weather Operations Plan

Enhanced Extreme Heat Precaution materials with Ozone-related information

Prepared cooling center survey to determine constituent needs in event of extreme heat

Influenced market for high albedo materials

Piloted high-albedo materials for roofs and streetscapes

Prepared electric grid for higher peak / summer loads due to A/C usage

B) Built environment C) Natural environmentA) People

Temperature

Precipitation Developed cross-organizational Extreme Weather Operations Plan, including extreme precipitation emergencies

Managing Stormwater at Home; Plant a Rain Garden in Your Yard; rain barrel distribution

Created Stormwater Management Framework and reduced impervious surface area by 55 acres through Stormwater Management Ordinance

Influenced market for permeable paving materials

Installed 120+ green alleys & streets, monitored performance

Began assessment of existing plans for climate readiness including Calumet Hydrologic Master Plan

Developed a trunk sewer model for 775 miles of pipe to help prioritize resource allocation

Established the Chicago Trees Initiative and increased tree canopy

Created Urban Forest Agenda Maintained natural reserves

through Greencorps Chicago Increased tree canopy cover to

17%

Restored Calumet, Indian Ridge, and Hegewisch Marshes

Piloting landscaping / bioswales to reduce stormwater burdens on sewer system (M)

Impacts of climate change

Target of adaptation work

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B) Built environment

Piloted alternative tree planting conditions

Convened Urban Ecology Adaptation Working Group

Crafted the Invasive Species Ordinance for terrestrial and aquatic species

C) Natural environmentA) People

Water Systems

Health

Ecosystems

Created Air Quality Action Agenda

Heightened awareness to mediate CC-health effects

Impacts of climate change

Target of adaptation work

Developed Climate Action Plan for Nature

Communicated to residents and businesses about which species to plant & how to preserve wildlife habitats

Advanced TARP / water storage

Infrastructure Reduced road salt usage Reinvigorated catchbasin

control (fka rainblockers)(M) Measured resiliency of

alternative roadway materials.

Sample climate change adaptation tasks completed to date (2/2)

Expanded use of wetland water control structures

Prepare clinics for increased traffic during CC-related events

Piloting landscaping / bioswales to reduce stormwater burdens on sewer system (M)

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• Research

• Approach

• Next Steps

Adaptation agenda

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Current priorities

Implementation

Incorporate adaptation work planning into 2010 Lead-By-

Example department and sister agency workplanning process

Refine working groups and identify leaders

Create geospatial mapping tool to direct CCAP investment

Leverage existing City processes and plans to serve

adaptation goals

Form and convene new Adaptation Advisory Group in order to: Identify metrics and measure progress toward climate adaptation / resiliency

Give input to adaptation communications

Identify funding needs and financial resources

Advise on other gaps as they arise

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Appendix

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Capturing Stormwater On-Site vs. Manage Stormwater

Adaptation Action #1 – Infrastructure Mitigation Action #26

Capture Stormwater On-Site Manage Stormwater

Build green alleys (CDOT) Use permeable pavement and

bioswales wherever possible (CDOT, CHA)

Evaluate opportunities for stormwater retention during development of Green & Healthy neighborhood plans (DZLUP)

Collaborate on greywater reuse policy (CDPH)

Install rain-blockers for sewer intakes (DWM)

Develop watershed plan (MWRD/DOE/DWM)

Action

Example Initiatives

Collaborate with the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District on a Chicago watershed plan which factors in increased precipitation due to climate change

Use green infrastructure to reduce energy for water pumping and filtration as well as the demands on stormwater management systems

Description

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Manage Stormwater

Capture StormwaterOn-Site

Rate of rainfall

Time

ILLUSTRATIVE:

(Inches per hour)

(Hours)

Capturing stormwater on-site effectively lowers the amount of stormwater which must be managed while saving energy normally used to pump that water

Rainfall in a given rainstorm

Key takeaway

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Capture StormwaterOn-Site

Manage Stormwater

Total amount of rainfall in storm

(Inches)

Number of Storms

Storms in a given seasonILLUSTRATIVE:

While green infrastructure alone can handle the rainfall from most storms, stormwater management plays a crucial role in handling the largest storms

Key takeaway

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“Migrating climate” analogues

• Summers: hot and humid

• Winters: warmer, but just as much snow

SUMMER

WINTER

Inconsistencies: Changes will not be consistent across seasons

Source: Hayhoe et al. (2010)22

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2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS

B1 LOWER EMISSIONS

oC

Chicago: warmer winters

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TEMP

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2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS

B1 LOWER EMISSIONS

oC

Chicago: much warmer summers

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TEMP

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Copyright 2010, City of Chicago25

Precipitation: Chicago’s wetter winters and springs

2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS

B1 LOWER EMISSIONS

%Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research (2010)

Periods of precipitation and dryness will be enhanced when they are least needed.  

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2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS

B1 LOWER EMISSIONS

Chicago: drier summers

%

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Six Climate Change Impacts for Chicago

Source: “High-Resolution Climate Projections: Connecting Global Change to Local Impacts,” Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, Expert Reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

1. Temperature

2. Precipitation

3. Water Systems

4. Ecosystems

5. Health

6. Infrastructure