Up and runningAlberta’s economy in 2017

Safety Codes Council

Banff, June 1, 2017

Rob Roach

Director of Insight

Economics and Research

ATB Financial

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0002

Annual unemployment rate (%)Canada Alberta

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3.1%

-1.1%

-0.3%

3.7%3.5%

2.4%2.2%

1.2%

-1.6%

1.1%

1.6% 1.5%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2017, 2018 and 2019 are forecasts. Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 282-0087 and ATB Financial

Employment growth in Alberta (annual % change)

6 Economic update

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0102030405060708090

100110120

May

-09

Au

g-0

9

No

v-0

9

Feb

-10

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

May

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

May

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Feb

-17

May

-17

Source: Bloomberg, Altacorp Research

Daily crude oil price, West Texas Intermediate

($ US per barrel)

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28

48

31

39

52 58

64

76

52

43

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Value of Alberta's international exports of crude oil(billions of CDN $)

Source: Trade Data Online, HS Code 270900 - Crude Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals

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2016, 8.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Source: US Energy Information Agency Note: Includes crude oil and lease condensate and excludes natural gas liquids.

US crude oil production, 1970 - 2016(million barrels per day)

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359

193 80

865

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 126-0001 and author's calculations Note: bbl = barrels

Alberta's annual oil production 1985-2015(million barrels)

Conventional (heavy, light, medium) Oil sands (synthetic crude and bitumen)

2.4 million bbl/day

530 thousand bbl/day

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32.6 34.337.4

19.7

32.7

40.9

47.251.6

58.1

38.0

24.7 25.3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 029-0045 NOTE: the 2016 figure is preliminary and the 2017 figure is based on spending intentions

Oil and gas extraction capital expenditures in Alberta ($ billions)

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Trade Data Online, HS code 2711

Value of international exports of natural gas from Alberta, 2000-2016 ($ billions)

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Source: US Energy Information Administration

Price of natural gas, 1997-2016 (Henry Hub US $ per million Btu)

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0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Source: Bloomberg, Atlacorp Research

Daily natural gas price Jan 2, 2015 - May 25, 2017(AECO benchmark, $ US per million Btu)

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2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Trade Data Online, HS code 39

Value of Alberta's international plastics exports, 2007-2016 ($ billion)

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$1,060

$1,080

$1,100

$1,120

$1,140

$1,160

$1,180

$1,200

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 281-0063 Note: Includes overtime pay; before taxes and payroll deductions.

Average weekly earnings in AlbertaJan 2014 - Mar 2017

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$966

$1,118

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 281-0063 Note: Includes overtime pay; before taxes and payroll deductions.

Average weekly earnings in Canada(March 2017)

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(2,573)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000Q

1 2

00

8

Q2

20

09

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

14

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

16

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 051-0017

Net quarterly interprovincial migration, Alberta, 2008-2016

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(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM tables 051-0017, 051-0001 and author's calculations

Net interprovincial migration per 100,000 population, Alberta, 1980-2016

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1.0%

6.7%

-22.7%

10.7%

16.1%

2.4%4.1%

7.2%

-13.9%

-8.5%

9%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

*2017 is a projection based on the first three months of the year Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 304-0015 and author's calculations

Alberta's manufacturing sales(annual % change)

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Mar-17, 6.6

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 080-0020

Monthly retail sales in Alberta ($ billions, seasonally adjusted)

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Mar-17, 6.4

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 081-0011

Monthly wholesale sales in Alberta ($ billions, seasonally adjusted)

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-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2017, 2018 and 2019 are forecasts. Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table 027-0054 and ATB Financial

Annual housing starts in Alberta

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4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 002-0009

Net farm income in Alberta ($ billion)

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2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

International exports of manufactured food products from Alberta

($ billion)

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Source: Trade Data Online (HS codes 44, 47 and 48)

International forestry exports from Alberta ($ billion)

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