2011 International Tourism Results and Prospects for 2012

UNWTO News Conference HQ, Madrid, Spain16 January 2012

John G.C. KesterProgramme Manager, Tourism

Trends and Marketing Strategies

Inbound tourism: World 2011

International tourist arrivals, 1995-2011* (million)

528561

586603

625

674 673693 682

753

797

842

898917

882

939

980 mn

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009* 2011*

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011*

V-shape decline of 15 consecutive

months of negative growth

+2.1% -3.8% +6.5% +4.4%

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2011*201020092008

2011: 980 mn2010: 939 mn => 2011: +41 mn

International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

4 43

1412

6

14

7

3 4

10

6 7

15

5

3

8 8

4

9

0

9

3 4 4

10

-12

7

-8

6.5

4.4

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

WorldNorth

ern Euro

peWest

ern Euro

pe

Central/

Eastern

Europe

Souther

n/Medi

ter. Eu.

North-East

AsiaSout

h-East

Asia

Oceania

South A

siaNorth

America

Caribbea

nCent

ral Americ

aSout

h Americ

aNorth

Africa

Subsaha

ran Afric

aMidd

le East

10/09 11*/10

2010 and 2011 by subregion

Increase 2011 by regionInternational Tourist Arrivals (absolute change 2011, million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

28

11

6

0

-5-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Europe Asia and thePacific

Americas Africa Middle East

Absolute numbers 2011 by regionWorld Inbound Tourism: International Tourist Arrivals, 2011* (million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

Europe, 503 mn, 51%

Africa, 50 mn, 5%

Middle East, 55 mn, 6%

Americas, 156 mn, 16%Asia and the

Pacific, 216 mn, 22%

International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

'90/89

'91/90

'92/91

'93/92

'94/93

'95/94

'96/95

'97/96

'98/97

'99/98

'00/99

'01/00

'02/01

'03/02

'04/03

'05/04

'06/05

'07/06

'08/07

'09/08

'10/09

'11*/1

0%

cha

nge

over

pre

viou

s ye

ar

International tourist arrivalsInternational tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closelyAsian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower

11S, SARS, economic downturn:receipts more affected

‘Great recession’:receipts more affected and slower to recover

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World

Better

Equal

Worse

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

150 144 140 137 132

71

131 139122119

144 140 136 143

98

72

140127

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Prospects (before)Evaluation (after)

Confidence weakening but still positive

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: Advanced economies

Better

Equal

Worse

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

146135 134 127 121

60

123136

11097

135 136 136 138

87

57

140127

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Prospects (before)Evaluation (after)

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: Emerging economies

Better

Equal

Worse

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

154 154 148 149 146

83

140 143 137139155

146135

149

11090

140126

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Prospects (before)Evaluation (after)

Confidence in emerging economies much stronger than in advanced economies

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International tourist arrivals

7.9

-0.1

3.0

-1.6

10.3

5.9 5.66.6

-3.8

4.4

6.6

2.1

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

Forecast

2012: 3% to 4%

Outlook: World ch

ange

(%)

2011 Projection 2012

World +4.4% +3% to +4%

Europe +6.0% +2% to +4%

Asia and the Pacific +5.6% +4% to +6%

Americas +4.2% +2% to +4%

Africa +0.0% +4% to +6%

Middle East -8.0% +0% to +5%

International tourism: projection full year 2012

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 2030

1 bn

1.8 bn

Thank you very much for your attention!

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org